UFC 131 JDS vs Carwin

[Vandelay]

Rosa is definitely fat. Einemo not as much.

[Ludo]

Some thoughts: Aaron Rosa and Jon Olav Einemo are fat fucks. Kenny Florian looks like a smaller version of James Irvin with the "fresh out of liposuction" shape. Lastly, that ring girl is checking dos Santos out hard core.

[Ludo]

Junior Dos Santos (239) vs. Shane Carwin (254)
Kenny Florian (146) vs. Diego Nunes (145)
Demian Maia (186) vs. Mark Munoz (186)
Jon Olav Einemo (261) vs. Dave Herman (233)
Donald Cerrone (155) vs. Vagner Rocha (155)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
Yves Edwards (155) vs. Sam Stout (155)
Jesse Bongfeldt (185) vs. Chris Weidman (186)

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)
Mike Massenzio (201) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (205)
James Head (186) vs. Nick Ring (185)
Dustin Poirier (146) vs. Jason Young (145)
Joey Beltran (247) vs. Aaron Rosa (261)
Darren Elkins (145) vs. Michihiro Omigawa (145)

[flyinggogoplata]

I think Cerrone is being overvalued here but lets look at the facts. Rocha only has only been fighting in MMA since February of 2009. He is really JUST a Jiu Jitsu fighter. Cerrone may not be the best striker at lightweight but Rocha really offers him nothing standing up. Cerrone has only ever been beaten by strong wrestlers who can fend off his submission attempts and hold him down. I just don't think Rocha has the takedowns to get it there or the type of game to continually hold him down. Technically Rocha has an out here but it's going to be extremely difficult for him to get to where he needs to be in order to achieve it.

makes a lot of sense.

[Ludo]

I think Cerrone is being overvalued here but lets look at the facts. Rocha only has only been fighting in MMA since February of 2009. He is really JUST a Jiu Jitsu fighter. Cerrone may not be the best striker at lightweight but Rocha really offers him nothing standing up. Cerrone has only ever been beaten by strong wrestlers who can fend off his submission attempts and hold him down. I just don't think Rocha has the takedowns to get it there or the type of game to continually hold him down. Technically Rocha has an out here but it's going to be extremely difficult for him to get to where he needs to be in order to achieve it.

[Vandelay]

wrong thread

[Vandelay]

1.8u to win 1u on not cerrone by sub

1.86u to win 1u on weidman, carwin/jds not a draw, not herman/munoz/stout by sub, and not rocha by ko/tko

[edman5555]

Bets I am looking at so far:

Not Diego nunes inside the distance
JDS Carwin does not go the distance
Not Dave Herman by submission
Not Munoz by submission
Not Cerrone by submission
Not Sam Stout by submission
Not Jesse Bong by submission

Mike Massenzio
Mike massenzio by decision
Chris Weidman
Sam Stout
Demian Maia
Kenny Florian

[edman5555]

I really got assraped on these lines. I will probably be betting Florian and Weidman if the ass raping comment didnt make it clear who I want. I am probably going to be doing quite a few props.

[Thewisemann]

Seems a lot of people are expecting Omigawa to submit him fairly quickly. That said, I could see a 29-28 split decision for Elkins with takedowns and semi sloppy stand up. I think the value is on Elkins personally. Omigawa shouldn't be over -200.

Agreed. Omigawa should win, but I can see Elkins pullin it off, value in Elkins.

[flyinggogoplata]

Been looking at Rocha/Cerrone... I wouldn't touch Cerrone with your money. Cerrone is probably going to win, but i would not be surprised to see Rocha take him down and either submit him or win a decision. That said, I haven't see enough of Rocha to bet him either.


Anyone have thoughts on Elkins/Omigawa?

Seems a lot of people are expecting Omigawa to submit him fairly quickly. That said, I could see a 29-28 split decision for Elkins with takedowns and semi sloppy stand up. I think the value is on Elkins personally. Omigawa shouldn't be over -200.

[MMA_scientist]

Been looking at Rocha/Cerrone... I wouldn't touch Cerrone with your money. Cerrone is probably going to win, but i would not be surprised to see Rocha take him down and either submit him or win a decision. That said, I haven't see enough of Rocha to bet him either.


Anyone have thoughts on Elkins/Omigawa?

[Thewisemann]

Damn, was gonna put more on Weidman, but hes over 400 now, damn.

[MMA_scientist]

Scientist whats your opinion on the rocha/cerrone fight? I got cerrone not by sub at -180. I realized he has 12 of his 14 wins via submission, but most of those came against strikers who cant grapple. Rocha is a black belt under Pablo Popovitch who i've never heard of. Anyways I think the only way he should lose by sub is if he gets rocked and rnc or taps to strikes.

I don't think Cerrone will submit him. I don't know much about Rocha, but I personally think Cerrone's grappling is overrated. He has a triangle because of his leg and hip flexibility... but other than his triangle, I don't think he is that great. I don't think he will submit Rocha, and will probably look to keep it standing anyway. b

Popovitch is a world level guy. If he (Popovitch) were to enter MMA, he would be the best pure grappler at WW. That said, he had an MMA fight last year and he did not look very good... it was his first so I give him a break though. Popovitch is the guy that submitted Ben Askren in 20 seconds at ADCC last year.

[Vandelay]

Scientist whats your opinion on the rocha/cerrone fight? I got cerrone not by sub at -180. I realized he has 12 of his 14 wins via submission, but most of those came against strikers who cant grapple. Rocha is a black belt under Pablo Popovitch who i've never heard of. Anyways I think the only way he should lose by sub is if he gets rocked and rnc or taps to strikes.