UFC 131 JDS vs Carwin

[MMA_scientist]

I think there are two very good lines on this card: Carwin and Maia.

Why Maia? I have Maia winning as well (and bet on him), but really think the line is about right. I mean, I think it should be flipped, with Maia as a slight favorite, but it is pretty close fight.

FWIW, CB took Munoz down before getting clocked. I think Maia has him beat standing and on the ground and can probably get it there if he needs to. However, Munoz seems really hard to control, and he definitely has the power edge.

I saw on the countdown that Maia has been working with JDS and his trainer. I am not sure how that works since JDS also trains with Munoz (and Anderson Silva)

[flyinggogoplata]

I looked at that thread... he got Herman/Einemo ITD @ -120... it is -245 on 5d. That is not because he is moving the line. I am pretty sure it opened there. You really think that many people are following this person? I have never heard of him and his thread is only 1 year old.

Hell, Edman is up some 50u, right here on IWS just in 5 months. You don't see lines moving off his plays. I don't think there are a lot of big money players that tail other guys.

Well you're right but 5dimes waits till the euro books props settle then release the lines. Like how bodog waits till the lines settle then release. He could be the reason the lines are sharper by being the originator in the market.

[Luke]

Munoz does not impress me at all .I honestly thought the opening line of -270 was about right , I was shocked to see it go down to +105

[Svino]

I think Maia has him beat standing and on the ground and can probably get it there if he needs to.

Well I hate to say it, but I'm not even this optimistic, in that I have to giver the overall standing edge to Munoz, given his power. But I do think the current line represents the idea that Munoz will win the standup and since he's the "better wrestler", Maia won't be able to get him down. In fact, I would be shocked if Maia can't take him down several times. Munoz gets taken down by anyone he fights with respectable wrestling, and he doesn't have the kind of outside striking game that could keep him away from Maia's good judo-work. Munoz is good in a scramble and may be able to stay out of subs, but Maia's chances at winning a decision are probably being underestimated. Both of the fights with Grove are informative, I think.

[poopoo333]

Scientist...do you think Maia would beat Palhares easy?

[edman5555]

I have seen Vaugny on SBR before. I used to scan SBR for winning betters and I never remembered him being anything special. I just reviewed some of his bets and I guess he might be decent but he doesn't appear to be some 'guru'. If this guy is a guru I am Rainman.

[poopoo333]

You know rainman is a ruh tard right?

[edman5555]

yes. Also I am starting to think that I have no idea who wins Junior/Shane Carwin. Rainman was also a card counting genius. Pre fight press conference, Kenny Florian, " best camp of my life, best shape of my life, weight cut very easy"

[poopoo333]

Kenny Florian was 159 yesterday (Wednesday). He just started the hard part of his cut today, let's see how he feels after dropping 14 lbs in 2 days. Think about it...he probably had to cut 14 lbs in 2 days to make 155. Now down to 145? come onnn

[MMA_scientist]

Scientist...do you think Maia would beat Palhares easy?

Not easy. I think he would beat him though.

[Luke]

I have seen Vaugny on SBR before. I used to scan SBR for winning betters and I never remembered him being anything special. I just reviewed some of his bets and I guess he might be decent but he doesn't appear to be some 'guru'. If this guy is a guru I am Rainman.

Like poopoo said

[Luke]

Rainman was also a card counting genius.

Whats the matter ? You cant count ?

[flyinggogoplata]

oh gawd.........Couture picks Carwin.

[poopoo333]

So?

[sbjj]

Scientist, how good is Weidmans grappling. Spent alot of time watching his grappling tonight. And to me, he looked great. just not sure how good his competition was. Does he hold a big grappling edge over Bongfeldt. Wrestking is obvious.

IMO, Bong. looked like crap against Pierson, and got REAL lucky against TJ Grant.