UFC 131 JDS vs Carwin

[MMA_scientist]

I am going to be on JDS pretty large. I think some of you are kinda of ignoring what is really happening to Carwin. the guy is losing mass because he is off the juice. his power will be somewhat diminished IMO. Factor in the fact he is coming off surgery and just plain getting up their in age and I think you have a guy that will just be a few steps behind in this fight.

In actuality I think many people are going to be surprised at how easily JDS dispatches of him. I think it will look like Cain-Lesnar. I think Carwin will look to get JDS down(and just might), but JDS will pop back up, and by midway through the 1st Carwin will be a dead man.

You make a convincing case. Aren't you worried that he (Carwin) will just hold him on the fence like he did to Mir or that he will actually be able to hold JDS down?

For the record, I lean JDS in this fight because I think his hands are much better and Carwin's offensive wrestling is not that great. I don't remember was he trying to take Mir down in their fight or just putting him on the cage for soem dirty boxing?

[edman5555]

Will they? I'm just judging what they do have open, it seems the lines are tighter then usual. 5dimes doesnt have near the props that paddy power has. And with that vaghanny guy releasing all his props and arbs to the public most books are wising up and have much sharper lines in general on props to go along with the low limits.

Vaghanny releasing props to public? Please explain. Paddy Power isn't available to americans is it? That is the one where people can bet against other people instead of books right?

[MMA_scientist]

Been checkin him out for a week or so, bets alot of props, seems he does good.

link?

[flyinggogoplata]

Been checkin him out for a week or so, bets alot of props, seems he does good.

he does really well but he gets lines no one else can get. Because the lines move instantly when he bets them. He posted a Prop that was -115 when I checked it was -215.

[Mr. IWS]

yeah... I cannot call that fight. I think Carwin has more outs.

You dont think the layoff/surgeries will hurt Carwin here?

[sbjj]

You make a convincing case. Aren't you worried that he (Carwin) will just hold him on the fence like he did to Mir or that he will actually be able to hold JDS down?

For the record, I lean JDS in this fight because I think his hands are much better and Carwin's offensive wrestling is not that great. I don't remember was he trying to take Mir down in their fight or just putting him on the cage for soem dirty boxing?

I actually think he will have HUGE trouble with JDS in the clinch. Mir just made funny faces up against the fence. Almost like he was mugging for the camera. I think if Carwin takes JDS down and tries to hold him down for one entire round, he is going to be one tired MFer come the second round.

JMHO, I do not believe he will be able to hold him down though.

[sbjj]

Scientist, he tried to take Mir down, but Mir stuffed him, and then that is how they ended up against the fence.

I really do not think Carwin is going to have this huge strength advantage that most people think in this fight.

[edman5555]

Carwin knocked mir out by holding him up against the fence and punching him there. I remember Mir saying that he let Carwin hold him up against the fence because he thought Carwin would tire.

[MMA_scientist]

Scientist, he tried to take Mir down, but Mir stuffed him, and then that is how they ended up against the fence.

I really do not think Carwin is going to have this huge strength advantage that most people think in this fight.

Well, that is why I was wondering... I don't think Carwin's shot is very good. He is not very fast like Brock is on his open shot, and he doesn't have a whole bunch of dynamic takedowns. If Mir stuffed him, I have no trouble believing JDS will stuff him also.

I don't know, maybe JDS is the play, you have me sort of convinced.

But I still can't bet it. I don't like the line, just because I really see only one viable path to victory for JDS, whereas Carwin could win in a few different ways (ground, clinch, big punch). All of them are less likely that JDS by (t)ko imo, but collectively they add up. I guess you can count "Carwin gassing" as an additional out for JDS, because if he goes ragdoll in round 2 again, JDS will be able to do whatever he wants to him.

[MMA_scientist]

Carwin knocked mir out by holding him up against the fence and punching him there. I remember Mir saying that he let Carwin hold him up against the fence because he thought Carwin would tire.

yeah, I remeber that part, but I just couldn't remember if Carwin was trying to drag it down also.

[MMA_scientist]

I will say this, I cannot get two images out of my head. The first one is Gonzaga dropping Carwin with a punch right down the pipe, and the other one is JDS dropping Werdum (who is just as big as Carwin) with that uppercut.

I am going to hope money comes in on Carwin after the weigh in... but it probably will be the opposite. JDS is pretty big himself.

[edman5555]

I don't know that the reason Shane is smaller is the fact he is off steroids. He never tested positive for them, he was just caught trying to buy them. He can still be on them if he purchases them from someone else. He is still a muscle bound dude weighing around 255 or so. I watched his blog for a bit. He has hired a new nutritionists and claims to be dropping a lot of weight because of that. Anyways, he still looks huge and he won't be cutting any weight. Also he gassed in the Brock fight because he threw 100 punches in 2 minutes.

[flyinggogoplata]

I don't know that the reason Shane is smaller is the fact he is off steroids. He never tested positive for them, he was just caught trying to buy them. He can still be on them if he purchases them from someone else. He is still a muscle bound dude weighing around 255 or so. I watched his blog for a bit. He has hired a new nutritionists and claims to be dropping a lot of weight because of that. Anyways, he still looks huge and he won't be cutting any weight. Also he gassed in the Brock fight because he threw 100 punches in 2 minutes.

if you're caught buying you did them for at least awhile.

[MMA_scientist]

Also he gassed in the Brock fight because he threw 100 punches in 2 minutes.

That's true. I don't many HWs that could throw that much and not gas. On the other hand, why didn't he slow down a minute and actually try to land a punch somewhere besides the forearm.

[edman5555]

Yeah obviously you can be on them. I am saying that Shane Carwin can still be on steroids right now.