TUF 13 Finale

[SPX]

How can Roop win? I don't see any path to victory for him. I am terrible at guessing opening lines, but I think he will be right in that are, -200 to -250. Grispi was on the fast track to a title shot until his most recent outing. I mean, he beat Hominick decisively not long ago.

Grispi looked like shit in his last fight. Roop showed some pretty decent takedowns and wrestling against Garcia and straight knocked Zombie the fuck out.

Truthfully, Grispi has never looked super impressive to me. Every time he wins it seems kind of flukey. He strikes me as a bit of a one-trick pony with those guillotines . . . what if he can't get it? I don't know. I just wouldn't feel confident taking him at a high line when he was a big favorite to win his last fight and ended up getting totally owned.

I actually see some similarities with Hathaway. Hathaway streamrolled through a lot of very good guys, then loses convincingly to Mike Pyle, and then in his next fight he BARELY squeaks by against Kris McCray. In fact, I think McCray probably won that fight.

[edman5555]

Mccray is a big strong wrestler that sticks and clings. Hathaway is a brit that isn't that good at wrestling. It actually makes sense that he lost. That said I had money on Hathaway because I bought the hype.

[poopoo333]

What does everyone like bet-wise for this card. There will be some more lines after the season is complete on Wednesday. We are probably looking at Ramsey vs. Ferguson for the TUF finale, then a few other lines for matchups.

As for the announced fights, I like Grispi to around -250 to beat Roop. i am also interested in Duran, who nearly upset Mizugaki when I bet on Miz to beat him. I am mildly interested in Jorgenson over Stone and Stephens over Downes. Guida/Pettis is too hard to call for me. I don't know enough about Maldonado, but it is hard to bet against a guy who has losses to "unknown fighter" on his record. I think Hermann/Credeur could go either way, I would consider either man as a significant dog.

What are y'all looking at?

I stopped watching TUF after around 4 episodes. I will probably watch them all like I did last season so I can decide on some potential bets. I don't know too much about Stone, but I will probably parlay Jorgensen and Grispi because the lines will more than likely suck, and I was thinking about Duran as well but I have to see more of Rivera. I think Kingsbury will use the power of Victor Conte and really grind Maldonado out. Betting on Herman/Credeur seems tricky, they have both been out of it since I was like 5 years old.

Grispi looked like shit in his last fight. Roop showed some pretty decent takedowns and wrestling against Garcia and straight knocked Zombie the fuck out.

Meh, I don't see how this stuff really pertains to Grispi vs Roop. He showed decent TDs against Garcia and landed a perfect head kick against a smaller guy standing on the outside basically just walking forward with his hands down... this fight will be totally different than them two.

[SPX]

Meh, I don't see how this stuff really pertains to Grispi vs Roop. He showed decent TDs against Garcia and landed a perfect head kick against a smaller guy standing on the outside basically just walking forward with his hands down... this fight will be totally different than them two.

My point is simply that Roop is not without tools.

Also, Roop is bigger than EVERYONE at 145 lbs. He's a fucking giant.

[SPX]

Mccray is a big strong wrestler that sticks and clings. Hathaway is a brit that isn't that good at wrestling. It actually makes sense that he lost.

So McCray's a big strong wrestler . . . and Rick Story's not?

That said I had money on Hathaway because I bought the hype.

Me too. And going into the decision I was pretty worried I was about to lose the shit.

[poopoo333]

My point is simply that Roop is not without tools

Well every fighter has "tools", so you wouldn't bet against a fighter with them? I think Grispi matches up well stylistically with Roop regardless of their previous fights.

[MMA_scientist]

I looked at the PBP for Grispi/Porier. I really did not remember it being that one sided... Grispi was trying to pull guard and got stuffed repeatedly on his shots. I guess I have to adjust my line down. Grispi is tricky off his back, so I don't know how much Roop gains by taking him down. But I thought Grispi's hands were better than they are.

Was Grispi's poor showing just a one off thing, first time in the UFC and all, or is he just all hype? He has some quality wins, but now I am questioning...

[poopoo333]

^^I'll watch that fight right now

http://mmaufcvideos.blogspot.com/2011/01/ufc-125-josh-grispi-vs-dustin-poirier.html

[sbjj]

I looked at the PBP for Grispi/Porier. I really did not remember it being that one sided... Grispi was trying to pull guard and got stuffed repeatedly on his shots. I guess I have to adjust my line down. Grispi is tricky off his back, so I don't know how much Roop gains by taking him down. But I thought Grispi's hands were better than they are.

Was Grispi's poor showing just a one off thing, first time in the UFC and all, or is he just all hype? He has some quality wins, but now I am questioning...

Most has to do with the fact that Poirier is a VERY good fighter.

[MMA_scientist]

Most has to do with the fact that Poirier is a VERY good fighter.

I remember when he had his first fight in the WEC people were saying this guy was awesome, was tearing up the local scene, and to bet on him. I did and he lost. Since then, I guess I have been weighing that fight against him too much.

How do you guys rate Grispi's striking against Roop's?

[MMA_scientist]

^^I'll watch that fight right now


http://mmaufcvideos.blogspot.com/201...n-poirier.html

Awesome thanks. I have all but given up on finding vids these days and I generally just settle for the PBP.

[Thewisemann]

I think Poirier started in WEC at 155, lost to Castillo then dropped to 45

[sbjj]

I remember when he had his first fight in the WEC people were saying this guy was awesome, was tearing up the local scene, and to bet on him. I did and he lost. Since then, I guess I have been weighing that fight against him too much.

How do you guys rate Grispi's striking against Roop's?

Yea, the Castillo fight. It was a close fight. I always thought Grispi was a bit overrated, but he should still beat Roop. But the line will probably be to high.

[poopoo333]

Dustin Poirier just looked great in the Grispi fight. Now that I think about it, Grispi might not be that good but I still think he has the grappling advantage over Roop. I mean, Grispi might be overrated...he subbed a white belt in Jens Pulver in 20 seconds, I am sure Stone Cold Steve Austin could do the same.

[SPX]

Well every fighter has "tools", so you wouldn't bet against a fighter with them?

You know what I mean. He has FUNCTIONAL tools that he can--and has--done damage with to some decent fighters.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Roop is all that great. But the guys in the WEC who have really given him problems have been guys who are known to have very good technical boxing--Wineland and Hominick. I don't think Grispi falls into that category.