Strikeforce April 9th Diaz vs Daley

[Thewisemann]

Just watched Beerbohm/Healy. Healy had him in some trouble on the ground. Aoki doesnt have Healy's size or wrestling, but im thinking Aoki can catch him. Thoughts?

[Luke]

Just watched Beerbohm/Healy. Healy had him in some trouble on the ground. Aoki doesnt have Healy's size or wrestling, but im thinking Aoki can catch him. Thoughts?

Everytime I think Aoki is going to win he losses, everytime I think he's going to lose he wins . With that said I think he wins ..........so bet Beerbohm

[BillyPilgrim]

I think Aoki will have some trouble getting him down personally. Beerbohm had Shaolin down for a few seconds and he managed to escape, though he was in a lot of trouble. Shaolin is better on the ground than Aoki IMO. The other issue is that Beerbohm appears to be t eh kinf od guy that flat out will not tap, so we might get to see a broken appendage again. Aoki is the rightful favorite based on who he has beaten, but I think there is a good chance Beerbohm pulls it off.

[edman5555]

If Beerbohm will take Shaolin down he might try to take down Aoki. If he does I can see him surviving or getting tapped out. It's impossible to predict IMO. No bet.

[BillyPilgrim]

True, but I was at the fight, and I am pretty sure Beerbohm's strategy was to just hold him on the cage and not actually get the takedown. Then if he got the takedown, to stand up really fast. It was a terrible fight, and I lost money on it.

But Aoki will jump guard, that is a definite possibility. I am not sure why Shaolin wouldn't pull guard. He only had the fight down for a few seconds (on bottom) and he had Beerbohm tied up in knots. His hands aren't that good either, Aoki might be able to outstrike him. Beerbohm does his best work from top position... but you are right, with Aoki's length, he will probably pull guard and Beerbohm could end up in trouble. Tough fight to predict.

[edman5555]

I remember that fight be called a bad decision as well. There were articles written about it. PBP gave it to Shaolin iirc

[BillyPilgrim]

I think I gave it to Shaolin, but I couldn't remember if it was just my bias or not.

Now I regret putting Beerbohm in my wisemann special. He is the last bet remaining... I wonder if I can hedge it out for a profit. brb.

[BillyPilgrim]

Here is my bet:

.1u to win 1.55u

Pending 4/2/11 12:30am Strikeforce Fighting 1002 Justin Wilcox -300* vs Rodrigo Damm
Pending 4/9/11 9:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 1201 Lyle Beerbohm +165* vs Shinya Aoki
Pending 4/2/11 8:00pm Bellator Fighting 2002 Eddie Alvarez -485* vs Pat Curran
Pending 4/2/11 8:00pm Bellator Fighting 2202 Patricky Freire -145* vs Toby Imada
Pending 4/2/11 8:00pm Bellator Fighting 2302 Ben Saunders -610* vs Matt Lee
Pending 4/2/11 7:00pm Bellator Fighting 2401 Rene Naraze +100* vs Matt Veach

Lock.

Nazare got cancelled... so without Nazare and Beerbohm, it would only clear .3u. If Beerbohm wins, it will clear .5u. So I have an arbitrage opportunity on Aoki, I could take a free bet on Aoki for .5u... but it hardly seems worth it at these stakes. Guess I am going to let it ride.

[edman5555]

I would take the free .5.

[bloydie]

I think im going abit crazy either that or im getting patriotic i think Daley is going to fold Diaz. I never bet against Diaz, but if he tries his 100 punches a round with Daley I think he's definetly going to get dropped. The only thing i still think he could catch Daley on the ground if he's still got his wits.

[Vandelay]

I think im going abit crazy either that or im getting patriotic i think Daley is going to fold Diaz. I never bet against Diaz, but if he tries his 100 punches a round with Daley I think he's definetly going to get dropped. The only thing i still think he could catch Daley on the ground if he's still got his wits.

I think diaz is the better striker. He routinely outstrikes decent to good strikers and doesnt have to be worried about being taken down. Daley has a great lead left hook but everything else about his striking isn't impressive to me. Diaz arguably outstruck noons, cyborg, and zaromskis. All are pretty good strikers save for maybe zaromskis. He pushes the pace and constantly stalks his opponents. Daley on the other hand has been knocking out grapplers with weak takedowns. His best win is probably kampman and he didnt even knock him down. However, with the current line, the value is probably with daley.

[Ludo]

So I just rewatched Crusher/Melendez 1 today. Crusher was ALOT stronger than Melendez but it was clear Gilbert was the better wrestler overall. Kawajiri had the better hands and as far as striking power they were fairly even with Crusher slightly getting the better of it early on with the knockdowns on Melendez. I don't know if Kawajiri has improved in the grappling as much as Melendez has since then. One thing that I noticed was that about halfway through the first round(a 10 minute round) Kawajiri showed some signs of fatigue. Does anyone know if he still gasses like that? I have a feeling Gil will force a similar pace to the first fight.

[MMA_scientist]

^ he didn't gas against Thomson. I think it is going to be fairly competitive. Melendez has improved his striking since then IMO, and he won't be subbed. I did not recall him getting the better of the wrestling. With Kawajiri coming over to the US, I think Gil will win.

[Ludo]

^ he didn't gas against Thomson. I think it is going to be fairly competitive. Melendez has improved his striking since then IMO, and he won't be subbed. I did not recall him getting the better of the wrestling. With Kawajiri coming over to the US, I think Gil will win.

For almost every takedown he was able to either get right back up and snag a meaningful takedown of his own, or get a reverse/scramble and end up on top. Kawajiri stuffed more of Melendez' shots because after a while Crusher stopped going for the takedown as much and started looking to straight up brawl. I think Kawajiri has value here, and what worries Me about betting Melendez is the fact that he hasn't fought in a year now. He wasn't injured that I'm aware of but still, thats a long time to be out of the cage.

[MMA_scientist]

^ that was my initial inclination too (Kawajiri had value). I would not bet Gil at -210 at all. But I don't know that there is enough there for me to bet crusher either... probably going to sit it out. I am going to have action on Bellator for sure. So I will probably just do a wiseman at micro stakes to keep me satisfied.