UFC 132 July 2nd

[Ludo]

I don't think 220 to 185 in 6-8 weeks is all that hard. 15-20 pounds in fat loss then a water weight cut to get to 185. Wandy is always in great shape. I don't think his chin is all that bad, Lebens is probably better at this point though. Bisping beat Leben 3 rounds to none. Wandy outstruck Bisping. Akiyama was up 2 rounds to none on Leben until he gassed and got triangled. Lebens Aaron Simpson win was good. Jay Silva is a rookie. Wandy has had a long string of losses but he has been fighting talented Light Heavyweights.

Leben is every bit "in" this fight. He's outmatched in speed and technical ability but when isn't that the case except on a few occasions? I do happen to believe Leben was sick for the Stann fight, I rewatched it not long ago and at the end of the fight there wasn't a drop of sweat on Leben. They said he couldn't break one warming up before hand either because of the illness but right now thats neither here nor there. Leben is probably going to lose the striking battles overall but it only takes one to win the fight for him. Factor in all the injuries, surgeries, mileage, and layoff for Wanderlei and this fight starts looking more and more like even. This is a fight between two brawlers so it's anyones fight.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, I don't think Wand is an overwhelming favorite or anything, but I wouldn't favor Leben to win.

[poopoo333]

Scientist...what do you think about G Sot and RDA? I know you've been on the RDA train for like year and a half now

[MMA_scientist]

Sot will probably win, but I wouldn't be surprised either way. It is not that I think DA is great, he is just overlooked every time.

Dos Anjos is very fast and Sot is pretty slow. But his takedown defense is not that good and they will probably both want to go to the mat. But Sot keeps coming and he will evetually wear him down eventually. Pretty close fight, I could bet either man depending on odds. DA will be overlooked again and will probably come in as a pretty good dog, so I will most likely be keeping the DA train alive and betting him again.

[Thewisemann]

.25u on Wiman dec @+225
Condit wins in rd 3, .1u to win 1.05u

[poopoo333]

.25u on Wiman dec @+225
Condit wins in rd 3, .1u to win 1.05u

ha, I hedged my Kim bet with Condit ITD.

[Vandelay]

I'm not seeing many options for a magic parlay for this event. I see value on not wanderlei by tko/ko

[poopoo333]

Not Guillard by sub, Not Siver by sub, Not Leben by sub, ??Not Faber by (T)KO??

[Luke]

220 to 185 in 6-8 weeks is not a hard cut

[edman5555]

Not Guillard by sub, Not Siver by sub, Not Leben by sub, ??Not Faber by (T)KO??

I agree with most except Not Siver by sub prob isnt the greatest idea. He has big power in his hands and he seems like he drops guys and goes for the choke right after.

[MMA_scientist]

Not Guillard by sub, Not Siver by sub, Not Leben by sub, ??Not Faber by (T)KO??

Not Cruz by sub.

[Thewisemann]

Bowles/Miz, anyone?

[edman5555]

It would be cool if you could combine props, like not Cruz by sub and not Faber by tko/ko. Maybe in the not so distant future when sports betting is legal and there are huge domestic websites with every betting option available.

[SPX]

Bowles/Miz, anyone?

I expect that Miz will continue his usual routine of win one-lose one, but he has the tools to beat Bowles if Bowles doesn't bring his A game. They are both well-rounded fighters, with the power edge going to Bowles. Miz probably has more technical skills on the ground.

I would take Bowles as a small favorite, but that's it. And I'd take Miz at +200 or better.

[MMA_scientist]

svino, have you figured out the algorithm on these props yet? They are definitely not independently set. They are tied to the overall odds on the fight somehow, but also move independtly. Witness the submission prop for Werdum and Overeem. Overeem by submission was less likely than Werdum by submission. That of course makes no sense so it had to be due to the fact that Overeem was a 4:1 favorite overall.