UFC 132 July 2nd

[Svino]

svino, have you figured out the algorithm on these props yet? They are definitely not independently set. They are tied to the overall odds on the fight somehow, but also move independtly. Witness the submission prop for Werdum and Overeem. Overeem by submission was less likely than Werdum by submission. That of course makes no sense so it had to be due to the fact that Overeem was a 4:1 favorite overall.

I've never really looked into it, but it's an interesting question - maybe I should. I don't have a 5 Dimes account, so I don't see all the prop lines that you do. (Tempted, but don't want to do business that Tony guy). I think they probably do have some default formula and then nudge the lines from there. Prop lines are updated less frequently, so they tend to lag the man lines. Sometimes you can still get a good line on a prop if the line on fight day has been moving in the opposite direction from what you want. Also, it's entirely common on BookMaker for the "Over 2.5 rounds" prop to have a better line than the decision prop, so it's always worth checking that if you're thinking about betting the decision.

[poopoo333]

^^Do you mean that Bookmaker over 2.5 rounds prop has a better line than the decision prop just on bookmaker? Because I always check, and Bookmaker's over 2.5 rd lines are always worse than 5dimes decision prop and their over 2.5 rounds prop. 5 dimes always has the better lines than bookmaker when it comes to props from what I have seen. The only reason why I ever bet a distance prop on bookmaker is if it's a prelim fight...5 dimes doesn't offer them sometimes

[Svino]

^^Do you mean that Bookmaker over 2.5 rounds prop has a better line than the decision prop just on bookmaker?

Yes.

I know 5 Dimes generally has better lines. I just think they're a little too sketchy.

[edman5555]

It seems like everyone says that about 5d. I have had no problems though, and I have been winning for a while. Maybe I haven't been winning big enough.

[flyinggogoplata]

Yes.

I know 5 Dimes generally has better lines. I just think they're a little too sketchy.

I agree about 5 dimes being sketchy I don't leave a lot of money in there.

[Thewisemann]

No problems with 5dimes and I have cashed out plenty from them.

[Thewisemann]

I'm really liking Bowles, Njokuani, Simpson, Guillard, and Cruz.

[poopoo333]

Bowles and Njokuani are two fights I really like as well.

[SPX]

Never count out da Miz!

[Thewisemann]

I really like Bowles here, I think he is better everywhere.

[poopoo333]

Thoughts on Njokuani/Winner? I think Winner is going to actually be a loser. It should be a striking match with Njokuani doing better in all areas imo

[SPX]

Why are you confident that he can avoid the takedown?

[poopoo333]

Well Andre Winner is a striker too, and his weakness is grappling. If anybody shoots it will probably be Njokuani

[flyinggogoplata]

[SPX]

Well Andre Winner is a striker too, and his weakness is grappling. If anybody shoots it will probably be Njokuani

You think so? I was thinking it would be the other way around.

In any case, Njokuani impressed me against Barboza. I thought that would be a clear-cut decision for Barboza, but that wasn't exactly the case.