UFC 132 July 2nd

[Thewisemann]

Also, 1u on Njokuani, 1.5u on Bowles and .36u on RDA

[Thewisemann]

MMy bookmaker is all pending

[Thewisemann]

I may go heavier on those except RDA, waiting for 5dimes.

[flyinggogoplata]

what does dos anjos do better then george? I understand the line has value but I'm not seeing how dos anjos actually wins.

[Vandelay]

I think the question should be what does Gsot do better then Dos Anjos?

[flyinggogoplata]

I think the question should be what does Gsot do better then Dos Anjos?

excellent post, cleared a lot of things up there.

[Vandelay]

excellent post, cleared a lot of things up there.

My post implied he's better at everything.

[Vandelay]

[mike]

the only advantage gsot has over rda is his height n reach, a better chin n better gas tank imo. his strikes are slow and robotic. his td sucks. rda can stay outside wit low kicks and blitz gsot on the inside with faster hands. i just hope his gas tank cam last for 3 rounds cuz gsot is tough to finish. this fight will probably go the distance.

[edman5555]

I think Dos anjos stuffed Guidas takedowns for two rounds IIRC. That is pretty good. If he can do that, then he might be able to stuff Georges. I think he might be faster than George in the standup as well, at least I remember someone saying that. I see a path to victory for him but it would pretty much only be by decision. Personally, I think the fight goes the distance.

[flyinggogoplata]

My post implied he's better at everything.

I don't agree with that at all. George was one fight away from a title shot. He ran into a better kick boxer that he couldn't take down. After the knock down I think George did pretty well standing barely losing or breaking even in the stand up game. Dos Anjos was tagged in the first round by Clay Guida with a head kick. Dos Anjos has better take downs but I believe George has a slight advantage on the ground and can get back to his feet or threaten enough from the bottom.

[Vandelay]

That doesn't sound like an argument for laying the number on this one.

[flyinggogoplata]

I think Dos anjos stuffed Guidas takedowns for two rounds IIRC. That is pretty good. If he can do that, then he might be able to stuff Georges. I think he might be faster than George in the standup as well, at least I remember someone saying that. I see a path to victory for him but it would pretty much only be by decision. Personally, I think the fight goes the distance.

I agree I will play the decision prop on this fight.

[flyinggogoplata]

That doesn't sound like an argument for laying the number on this one.

I said Dos Anjos has the value. I'm not laying anything on George unless he keeps dropping. I simply said I don't think he can win the fight. I will play the decision prop on this fight.

[edman5555]

I had a brainstorm the other day: Dong Hyun kim wins via takedowns against Condit..I think we all agree on that point. I think he tends to get tired though and he may have some trouble taking down Condit. Condit also has a really high workrate which could wear StunGun out. I am thinking of waiting until the first round is over and betting Condit via the live betting option depending on how it went. However I would only bet Condit if Dong won the first round and Condit did fairly well. I would consider fairly well resisting a few takedowns but getting taken down once or twice and outlanding Dong a lot. If Dong wins round one the odds on Condit might go up to +400 or +500. It is def possible that he could resist Dong well enough for the second and third rounds to win. Maybe even knock him out.

All this is contingent upon Dong winning round 1 and A) having some trouble doing it but still convincingly winning and B) having to work a lot and taking a lot of strikes.

Whether or not anyone agrees with me on this particular fight I think it is a good concept for the future. I bet there are a lot of fights out there that we can come up with strategies like this beforehand. Ex: Nate Diaz getting outwrestled in the beginning and wearing his opponent down. Another Ex: Betting a guy that we only think can win by stoppage after he loses the judges in R1.

This could be a good way of getting better odds on select fights. Anyone who agrees with me, please keep an eye out for fights where you see an opportunity for this. I bet all of us put together can definetly find something at some point.