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This is the only card this week, so I figured we might as well get down to business, so we are ready when the lines break:
Joe Warren vs. Marcos Galvao
Zach Makovsky vs. Chad Robichaux
Bellator Featherweight Tournament Seminfinals
Patricio Freire vs. Wilson Reis
Kenny Foster vs. Daniel Straus
Tony Johnson Jr. vs. TBA
Warren vs. Galvao: wrestler vs bjj matchup. Galvao has done pretty well until he steps up in competition... still he is not a pushover by any means. Warren has shown that he can fend off submissions pretty well, even though he gets in trouble a lot. Still, Galvao is a bjj guy that can't submit anyone... he has never subbed anyone in MMA. And if he is hoping to engage in a positional battle with Warren, he is going to lose. Also Galvao's hands and chin are not great. Warren might also finally have a fight where he will try to keep it standing. Warren gets rocked in every fight, but manages to hang in there. Warren should win this unless he gets surprised on his feet or taken down repeatedly, which is doubtful. But his line will most likely be at least -300, probably more. Still might be bettable though...
Makovski v. Robichaux: Another wrestler vs. bjj matchup. Robichaux is 11-0 with 10 submissions, BUT a closer look at his record gives a better picture. In my opinion, he really only has 2 fights, his 2 most recent ones. He started fighting in 1999, then fought up until 2005 and then took like 4 years off. His 2 most recent opponents have records of 6-4 and 10-5. He took one of them to a split decision. Prior to that, his opponents had a combined record of 3-18... that's right 3 wins total. None of them had more than 4 fights. Aside from the competition issue, Makovski is going to be very difficult to submit. He knows what he is doing on the mat and he has short limbs. I will be on Makovski for sure unless his line is just stupid.
Patricio Freire vs. Wilson Reis: They fought once before, Pitbull won. I actually bet on Reis last time at -150. It was close though. I think Reis has a slightly better ground game, but Pitbull has better takedowns and takedown defense. Pitbull also has better striking. Pitbull also looks like he has gone to work on his wrestling and is younger and has more upside. Still, it was close last time and Pitbull has a lot of hype right now. I expect the value to be on Reis. Pitbull should not be more than -160 IMO. I think Pitbull will win, but most likely he will be higher than that. I will probably just watch this one.
Kenny Foster vs. Daniel Straus: I don't know what to think about this one. I have seen Straus several times. He is tough has decent hands and pretty good wrestling. Foster just mad dogged Larkin though (and cost me 5u in the process). Larkin is one of the most accomplished wrestlers in all of MMA... just a beast of a wrestler. Foster, who did not come from a wrestling base, stuffed him several times and then subbed him. I think the line will be close to even, I am leaning Foster, but probably won't bet here because I haven't seen Foster enough.
Tony Johnson Jr. vs. TBA: Johnson is a huge guy with power and very good wrestling. In his last fight, they gave him Cormier, who is probably one of only a handful of guys that can beat him. Unless they bring a beast in on short notice, Johnson is going to win. Johnson is a big bad black mothertrucker.
Joe Warren vs. Marcos Galvao
Zach Makovsky vs. Chad Robichaux
Bellator Featherweight Tournament Seminfinals
Patricio Freire vs. Wilson Reis
Kenny Foster vs. Daniel Straus
Tony Johnson Jr. vs. TBA
Warren vs. Galvao: wrestler vs bjj matchup. Galvao has done pretty well until he steps up in competition... still he is not a pushover by any means. Warren has shown that he can fend off submissions pretty well, even though he gets in trouble a lot. Still, Galvao is a bjj guy that can't submit anyone... he has never subbed anyone in MMA. And if he is hoping to engage in a positional battle with Warren, he is going to lose. Also Galvao's hands and chin are not great. Warren might also finally have a fight where he will try to keep it standing. Warren gets rocked in every fight, but manages to hang in there. Warren should win this unless he gets surprised on his feet or taken down repeatedly, which is doubtful. But his line will most likely be at least -300, probably more. Still might be bettable though...
Makovski v. Robichaux: Another wrestler vs. bjj matchup. Robichaux is 11-0 with 10 submissions, BUT a closer look at his record gives a better picture. In my opinion, he really only has 2 fights, his 2 most recent ones. He started fighting in 1999, then fought up until 2005 and then took like 4 years off. His 2 most recent opponents have records of 6-4 and 10-5. He took one of them to a split decision. Prior to that, his opponents had a combined record of 3-18... that's right 3 wins total. None of them had more than 4 fights. Aside from the competition issue, Makovski is going to be very difficult to submit. He knows what he is doing on the mat and he has short limbs. I will be on Makovski for sure unless his line is just stupid.
Patricio Freire vs. Wilson Reis: They fought once before, Pitbull won. I actually bet on Reis last time at -150. It was close though. I think Reis has a slightly better ground game, but Pitbull has better takedowns and takedown defense. Pitbull also has better striking. Pitbull also looks like he has gone to work on his wrestling and is younger and has more upside. Still, it was close last time and Pitbull has a lot of hype right now. I expect the value to be on Reis. Pitbull should not be more than -160 IMO. I think Pitbull will win, but most likely he will be higher than that. I will probably just watch this one.
Kenny Foster vs. Daniel Straus: I don't know what to think about this one. I have seen Straus several times. He is tough has decent hands and pretty good wrestling. Foster just mad dogged Larkin though (and cost me 5u in the process). Larkin is one of the most accomplished wrestlers in all of MMA... just a beast of a wrestler. Foster, who did not come from a wrestling base, stuffed him several times and then subbed him. I think the line will be close to even, I am leaning Foster, but probably won't bet here because I haven't seen Foster enough.
Tony Johnson Jr. vs. TBA: Johnson is a huge guy with power and very good wrestling. In his last fight, they gave him Cormier, who is probably one of only a handful of guys that can beat him. Unless they bring a beast in on short notice, Johnson is going to win. Johnson is a big bad black mothertrucker.
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