UFC on Versus 5

[MMA_scientist]

This is what I said originally about the Cerrone/Oliveira fight:

I might consider Cerrone by decision. He has never really stopped anyone with strikes that I can think of. They talk about it all the time, for a kickboxer he doesn't have a lot of power. He also can't sub Oliveira (probably). So decision is really his only out IMO. Had not really though about that fight, but now that I consider it, I think Cerrone via decision is the play. Or Oliveira straight up, because I think he had multiple ways to win.

Then I watched the fight between Oliveira and Lentz (I have no idea how it has survived on Youtube this long):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW4dBFpNvjg

Oliveira brings the pressure from bell to bell. He just does not stop bringing it... but he had 3 rounds to hurt Efrain and and he got tagged a few times by Lentz, though he was never hurt. He did drop Lentz though. But just watching his standup, he may be able to pressure Cerrone into making a mistake, but I just think Cerrone's length and leg kicks may get him a decision. I was going to bet Oliveira, but then I saw that +400 line for Cerrone by decision. I still think Oliveira wins, but I couldn't pass up +400.

[edman5555]

Another thing. Oliv has only really outstruck two guys that we have seen. Nik Lentz and Efrain Escudero. Two shorter wrestlers....Cerrone will actually be bigger and stronger than Oliv. He may have a better reach as well. Cerrone is also a pretty good wrestler. Oliv will have a hard time getting him down. Even if he does, Cerrone will by tough to submit. Cerrone is the bet here, especially at +130.

[edman5555]

2006 S-1 United States Muay Thai champion

Cerrone

Also, his kickboxing record is 28-0-1

[edman5555]

Who has tagged and dropped Cerrone?

[sbjj]

I think Oliveira beats Cerrone. He will almost surely win the first round. And I doubt Cerrone's robot stand up will give Olive. a whole lot of trouble.

people seem to think Cerrone has better stand up. yet i have yet to see anyone hang with Olive. standing. In fact, besides the Miller fight. The guy has not lost for more than a 10 second span in the cage. Pretty much never seen the guy get hit clean. Yet, we have seen Cerrone tagged, dropped, and hurt by guys that have mediocre stand up.

Yet Cerrone has better striking? Why, because he looks like a MT fighter from a Van Damme movie.

I think Olive. is being treated like Jon Jones in the beginning of his rum. People thought he was wild and sloppy also.

[MMA_scientist]

I had not looked at the decision prop on Miller/Bendo. It is -380, that is ridiculous. No way I am betting that.

So I am going to pull the trigger on Hardy and probably just ride out my Cerrone decision bet.

[edman5555]

Wow. 256 losses. That might be the toughest guy in the world right there, how the hell do you get back in the ring 256 times after losing? Crazy.

Anyways, I also think Hardy will win. Lytle's striking is kinda loopy if I remember correctly. Hardy is a tight striker IMO, regardless of his ko loss to Condit. Lytle was thinking about retiring which makes him questionable. Hardy is trying to rebound so I expect a good performance out of him. I will bet Hardy. Also, Hardy by decision.

Miller/Bendo: Tough one to call. I think the distance prop is like -380 or something. Pretty rough. I guess if I had to make a bet it would be on Bendo. It can really go either way, either bet is a real gamble.

[poopoo333]

I was thinking Miller, but now I am torn. I think Miller has the edge there, but Bendo is tough. I might just bet that it goes to a decision, I think it will look a lot like the Bocek/Hendo fight. I slightly favor Miller though.

I am already on Cerrone by decision, and I may just let that ride. I was going to go back and bet Oliveira, but I thought his line would improve and it hasn't. I might do, Oliveira via sub and Cerrone by decision. I don't know what to do on this one. I kind of just want to watch it.

I think Hardy will beat Lytle with his reach and takedown defense. I doubt Lytle can take him down, and as much as I liek Lytle's go for broke style, he is really not a very crisp striker. I think Hardy will pick him apart. Does anyone think Lytle is a better striker?

I think Amir will take Ludwig down. He should. But I don't think I am going to bet that. If Amir stands with him, I could see Bang catching him. Amir doesn't have a lot of power that gived Bang longer to land a shot. He pretty much loses by getting taken down, he is a pretty good kickboxer I think.

Yeah, at first I was real confident in Miller. Now I think it's going to be a real close fight. Even though I think Miller is technically better I think Bendo will find a way to turn this into a tough and close fight. I think Miller ends up on his back a little too much. I already bet on it to go to decision before the decision prop got up to where it is now.

I also just came to the conclusion Hardy will win. Lytle doesn't have the wrestling/heavy top control game like GSP and Anthony Johnson. Lytle throws these huge hooks and just wades forward and tends to get out boxed by tight and technical strikers (like Marcus Davis). Lytle is also on the downside of his career imo...He has a shit load of fights, his body is probably getting worn out, he is 36, and he is already looking onto the next step in his life (politics). I am not sure if Hardy can stop Lytle though, I might bet the Hardy by decision prop...I already bet the fight goes distance prop.

Amir is going to win but his line sucks balls.

[MMA_scientist]

In short, I am thinking:

Hardy
Cerrone via decision
Miller/Bendo goes the distance

Thoughts?

[MMA_scientist]

I was thinking Miller, but now I am torn. I think Miller has the edge there, but Bendo is tough. I might just bet that it goes to a decision, I think it will look a lot like the Bocek/Hendo fight. I slightly favor Miller though.

I am already on Cerrone by decision, and I may just let that ride. I was going to go back and bet Oliveira, but I thought his line would improve and it hasn't. I might do, Oliveira via sub and Cerrone by decision. I don't know what to do on this one. I kind of just want to watch it.

I think Hardy will beat Lytle with his reach and takedown defense. I doubt Lytle can take him down, and as much as I liek Lytle's go for broke style, he is really not a very crisp striker. I think Hardy will pick him apart. Does anyone think Lytle is a better striker?

I think Amir will take Ludwig down. He should. But I don't think I am going to bet that. If Amir stands with him, I could see Bang catching him. Amir doesn't have a lot of power that gived Bang longer to land a shot. He pretty much loses by getting taken down, he is a pretty good kickboxer I think.

[poopoo333]

You will also, no doubt, hear about Lytle's win of an Indiana boxing championship, which is true. Lytle won the title from John Moore who came into the bout with an 11-48-1 record and had not won in 12 straight fights. Lytle would prove his dominance over Moore, defending his title against the now 11-50-1 Moore again later (yes, Moore got a title rematch by losing his next bout). Chris also holds wins over 13-140-4 Donnie Penelton and 64-256-15 Reggie Strickland.

lol

[Ludo]

yeah i dont like betting against young guys with skills, esp betting on a guy on his way down but i think Ludwig will outbox Amir. well i'm just gonna put a tiny bet on him for fun.

Good luck to you on it, I don't have a bet or a favorite either way so I hope it works out.

[mike]

Thats a tough call. He may have the power to put Amir down but Amir will be the bigger guy with the better striking. This fight kind of reminds Me of Scott Smith's last fight. Of course he could pull it out with a good shot or two but Amir might just confuse him the whole time by throwing and landing from everywhere.

yeah i dont like betting against young guys with skills, esp betting on a guy on his way down but i think Ludwig will outbox Amir. well i'm just gonna put a tiny bet on him for fun.

[sideloaded]

he's not black. he's a rafter.

[poopoo333]

Cole Miller should win his fight too. Since the odds will suck for straight bets, I might just parlay Miller and Figuerora. I might give it a shot with Hettes too. That black wanna be asian sucks.