UFN 25: Battle on the Bayou 9/17

[Svino]

I hereby officially cede all glory to Vandelay.

[Luke]

I hereby officially cede all glory to Vandelay.

How much math did you take in college Svino?

[Svino]

How much math did you take in college Svino?

In undergrad, I guess it would be 5 semesters. All of it with an applied (engineering / physics) bent. I never actually took a proper theorem/proof style math course or a statistics course.

[SPX]

I don't know what the difference is.

[Svino]

I don't know what the difference is.

Well, applied courses will cover a lot of material, but not necessarily take the time to justify everything formally. The goal is just to give you a lot of mathematical tools to use in solving practical problems.

Courses for math majors spend a lot more time proving every theorem as they go along. High school geometry is taught a little more like this, if you ever did two-column proofs.

[Luke]

In undergrad, I guess it would be 5 semesters. All of it with an applied (engineering / physics) bent. I never actually took a proper theorem/proof style math course or a statistics course.

awesome......when are you going to start on a MMA model so we can all get rich?

[Svino]

awesome......when are you going to start on a MMA model so we can all get rich?

Regrettably, none of my courses were in MMAth.

[Ludo]

Regrettably, none of my courses were in MMAth.

BOL

[MMA_scientist]

You're taking all my glory

lmao. perfect.

Just to put numbers in, if we assume the final odds are correct:

In the first case (-200 to -600), a Kelly bet would be 57% on bankroll and result in an expected growth of 9.9%

Second case (-2000 to -6000), a Kelly bet would be 66%, but would only have an expected growth of 1.4%.

I guess the thing to remember is that apparent similarity in ratio is just misleading because the Moneyline format is an abomination and you should always use decimal odds or percentages when doing anything mathematical or conceptual with odds.

Strangely, that entire post actually makes sense to me.

Regrettably none of my courses were in MMath.

oh my god. A math joke.



Why I am I awake? That is the real issue here.

[Ludo]

I think this is the first time I've seen you here beyond Zak's bedtime, Scientist. Crazy.

[MMA_scientist]

I have insomnia. I have been up until 4am the last 3 nights. And then up for the day at around 6.


I think I have narrowed it down a figured out that it is stress related. I never get nervous or stressed... like the wolrd can be falling down around me and I will just sit there like nothing is happening. But I think when I feel overwhelmed, I bury it deep in the recesses of my brain and it comes out as insomnia. It has happened to me a few times in my life. When I first started law school, I did not sleep more than 1 or 2 hours per night for probably 4 months. Even now as I sit here, I feel fine, I do not feel even a twinge of stress or nerves... but I think I know I am unprepared for some work stuff deep down. When I was in law school, I used to ride my bike around town and campus at all hours of the night and mid morning. I remember riding my bike like 15 miles to Denny's at 3am one nightm eating and coming back... and I had no idea where the night went the next day. It was like The Mothman Prophecies. Sleep deprivation is kind of awesome tbh.

[MMA_scientist]

ok, so I am ramping it up now.

What you nerds are saying is that the steeper the favorite, the less "room" there is to find value. And is certainly not worth 3x as much to gain a few extra percentage points...

With that, why does tha magic parlay keep working so well?

Assume -3000 for every line (I think it is more like -2500 on average though). So I make 5 30:1 bets on each card in a 5u parlay. So it is just under 6:1 for the card (just rounding stuff to make it easy for me).

Assume that I win 120 of these in a row (which is pretty close to the reality). That is not that big of a deal I understand... It is about the same as winning 4 even money bets in a row right? Still, at -600, I have made 20u this way (in my hypo, I have not made that much in reality).

(Everyone keeps saying "well, you are going to lose eventually." Yeah. I realize that. That is why I only bet 5u and not my entire bankroll.)

Assuming the books keep letting me get away with this, tell me what I am doing wrong. Because I glean from your posts that the value can't really be there, it is going to be much more difficult to find value in a 3% window than a 20% window.

It is a true a magic formula right? Or is it too early to tell, like I am asking you about an edge after making 4 bets...

Or should I learn how to cap fights again.



Again, sorry for not knowing how to ask the right questions... just use your math super powers to divine what I am asking.

[Ludo]

I thought you said you felt fine? Half of that last post came off as total scatterbrain gibberish. Breadcrumbs.

But seriously take some sleep aids to help. I have had life long sleeping problems to the point I have to take something nightly in order not to be up for 3 days at a clip. I doubt you need anything prescription grade but you can get diphenhydramine tablets at any drug store which will probably help. Essentially it's Tylenol PM without the tylenol.

[MMA_scientist]

Ludo, it makes sense to me. i am up for the day and halfway to louisville...1st phone post...i dont need a sleep aid. i like it. prob not great day for 8 ours on the road tho

[MMA_scientist]

Oh and bol at breadcrumbs