UFN 25: Battle on the Bayou 9/17

[Thewisemann]

Thinkin about parlaying Shields, Koch and Dunham.

[Svino]

ok, so I am ramping it up now.

What you nerds are saying is that the steeper the favorite, the less "room" there is to find value. And is certainly not worth 3x as much to gain a few extra percentage points...

With that, why does tha magic parlay keep working so well?

Assuming the books keep letting me get away with this, tell me what I am doing wrong. Because I glean from your posts that the value can't really be there, it is going to be much more difficult to find value in a 3% window than a 20% window.

It is a true a magic formula right?

I don't think anything is wrong; I think there's legit value there. People definitely overestimate the frequency of submissions (and underestimate decisions), especially in high level fights, and I think the situation is likely to continue to tilt. In terms of finding value, I don't see 2%-3% as that bad (in the earlier post, it was the line of -17000 that I said I wouldn't touch). A few percent is still high enough that you can look at past similar fights and have enough of a sample size to reasonably say "I think there's less than 3% of a sub".

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, even I won't touch -17000. I think the steepest one I have done is -8400 and it was art of a 5 part parlay.

Anyway, thanks for the responses.

[MMA_scientist]

Speaking of, that 'not ellenberger by sub" prop is all teh way back down to -5100. I put it in my 2011 parlay.

What do you guys think about

"not ellenberger/yang/Koch/Belcher" by submission? It comes in -400.

It definitely is not a lock, but what do you think about it at -400?

[poopoo333]

^^already looked at it. I like it.

[Vandelay]

Koch is pretty good off his back. Hes alot like pettis. Id rather put not brookins by sub.

[MMA_scientist]

Koch is pretty good off his back. Hes alot like pettis. Id rather put not brookins by sub.

Yeah, that is definitely the most risky one of the bunch, it is -1000 or so though... so without it, the aother 3 would be like -1200

[poopoo333]

Prelims start on Facebook in 4 minutes

[edman5555]

wow benoist is beating riddles ass

[poopoo333]

wow benoist is beating riddles ass

We are in the chat on the main page

[mike]

yess up 9.8u on this event. got back all my loss from last week's strikeforce. Kock and Ellenberger and Dunham won it for me.

[Luke]

Prelims start on Facebook in 4 minutes

Stream?

[Vandelay]

Was outta town so didn't see all the fights yet. Anyone look overly impressive or disappointing?

[Ludo]

Was outta town so didn't see all the fights yet. Anyone look overly impressive or disappointing?

Macdonald looked very unimpressive, even for a +220 underdog. Waldberger wrecked his opponent, and Rocha straight raped Cody McKenzie on the ground.

[Vandelay]

Yea I just watched the rocha, koch, and stone fights (the fights I had money on) and Rocha and Stone won easily. Koch fight went how I expected, except I thought koch would embarass him on the feet but i guess the threat of the takedown kept him reserved.