UFC 139

[poopoo333]

I'm really not sure I agree about Bowles. In fact, I've already placed my bet on Faber.

Just wondering what your breakdown is/how you think the styles match up? I really have no idea what to think of this fight

[SPX]

You know, I knew someone was going to ask me that, and I can't come up with much beyond "Faber being Faber."

I just think that he'll find a way to win, probably by pushing the pace and, I believe, landing takedowns. Bowles hasn't faced anyone with Faber's wrestling skills so . . . basically I'm betting on Faber being the better grappler.

[Ludo]

the fights with Wineland and Cruz are why I put something on Faber already as well. Bowles is good but Faber is probably the second fastest guy in the division behind Mouse. It isn't often someone slips Wineland and lands on him or Cruz the way Faber was. Bowles has power in his hands but I just see him being a half step behind all fight long.

[SPX]

That's pretty much how I see it, too. It's not a fight I'm super-confident in, but I thought it was worth a bet.

[Ludo]

That's pretty much how I see it, too. It's not a fight I'm super-confident in, but I thought it was worth a bet.

Obviously it only takes one punch from Bowles to turn things around but Faber should come out of this with the win. He's faced and beaten better all around fighters as well as better wrestlers and better strikers respectively whereas Bowles hasn't faced anyone like Faber other than Cruz yet.

[MMA_scientist]

Is anybody here betting on Wandy/Le? It's a hard fight to cap for me but I am leaning Le.

not even going to try to pick that one, but I lean Wand just because he has actually won fights against A level fighters at some point in his career.

Faber/Bowles is a tough one as well..it might be pretty even on the feet, but I don't think anybody has ever outgrappled Bowles...will Faber be able to wrestle his way to a decision?

Faber likes to mix it up lately, preferring to strike then try to score with takedowns. I don't see why Faber is such a favorite, Bowles is just as good as Faber IMO, and he hits a lot harder.

Thoughts on Story/Kampmann? If Kampmann puts everything together and finally fixes his fight IQ I think he will be able to beat Story by getting TDs of his own from the clinch..Story has strong offensive wrestling in the clinch/against the cage, but he does end up on his back often from that position.

I think Story will win. Kampmann has lost t o every fighter that brings the pressure to him, which is what Story will do.

I think Kingsbury takes 2 of 3 rounds against Bonnar, but it's a risky bet if Kingsbury gasses out again..Bonnar can always turn it up and get the late finish.

Bonnar is a survivor, he is hard as hell to finish. He also has a great gas tank. Horse steroids > human steroids. I am with you here, I think Kingsbury is probably better in round one... but I think Bonnar is more technically skilled and can take over once the initial burst of speed and power goes away. I think it is a pretty even fight.

I think Bader beats Brilz by having the better wrestling/hands.

Probably, but Bader bitched out on that guillotine choke to Tito and Brilz has a super tight one. Bader should win by just keeping it standing, but I think Brilz could submit him.

Michael McDonald is good but I don't know anything about Alex Soto (who is taking the fight on like 9 days notice)

tried to find some info on him. He is not a wrestler or come from any strong MA background. He fought to a draw in his last fight but most of his wins come over guys with winning records, although being a winning MMA fighter in Mexico is not a big deal IMO. Here is highlight vid: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9QeikZMafU

Anyway, McDonald should win easy.

Weidman outgrapples Lawlor to a decision.

Agree. Lawlor could force a stand up fight for a while, but Weidman survived Sakara in his UFC debut, I think he can survive Lawlor. It could be tough going for a round, but I think Weidman will grind out a decision.

Tibau should beat RDA with top control/being fucking huge

Agreed. I got Tibau in that one.

I don't know much about Nick Pace...is Torres gonna beat him?

Pace is pretty tough, but Torres is going to beat him IMO. Torres has him beat everywhere.

Baczynski/Matt Brown is gonna be a good fight...Baczynski is huge and looked great against Harvison..not sure about this one

Who cares. I also don't bet against Matt Brown anymore.

If Shamar Bailey comes to grapple and not to fight he may have the edge over Danny Castillo...how good is Bailey's wrestling/overall grappling compared to Volkmann's? Volkmann did great against Castillo

Bailey is not as good as Volkmann IMO, but does have better standup. I think Bailey will do the same thing Volkmann did.

[edman5555]

weidman/lawlor...weidman is still pretty new. Lawlor has some power in his hands as well. He will also be harder to take down than Sakara.

[MMA_scientist]

weidman/lawlor...weidman is still pretty new. Lawlor has some power in his hands as well. He will also be harder to take down than Sakara.

Probably, but he is also more dangerous standing. I don't think Weidman's line is right, but I do think he will win.

[Thewisemann]

anyone betting Shogun?

[poopoo333]

^^if so, why do people here like Shogun in this fight? I am leaning Hendo

[Vandelay]

Light Heavyweight bout: Maurício Rua vs. Dan Henderson------------No idea yet. Decision dan gonna show up here?
Middleweight bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le------------At this price, i would take wand.
Bantamweight bout: Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles------------I think faber is better everywhere.
Welterweight bout: Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story-----------Story should win based on pressure and pace set, but Kampann has fought two wrestlers prior to him and has developed some good tdd.
Light Heavyweight bout: Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury-----------Eh, tough one. I'll have to look at this one more.

Preliminary card (televised)

Light Heavyweight bout: Ryan Bader vs. Jason Brilz-----------Brilz at anything over 200.
Middleweight bout: Tom Lawlor vs. Chris Weidman------------Lawlor for sure. Line is way off. Lawlor has heavy hands and good wrestling. Weidman has beaten two guys that he matched up favorably with and all of a sudden he deserves these type of lines. ok.

Preliminary card

Bantamweight bout: Michael McDonald vs. Alex Soto------------McDonald based on him having beaten better guys. Never seen Soto fight though.
Lightweight bout: Gleison Tibau vs. Rafael dos Anjos-----------Definitely Dos Anjos in this one. Better striking, better jj, and should have good enough wrestling to nullify Tibau
Bantamweight bout: Miguel Torres vs. Nick Pace---------------Torres will probably win, but the line will suck.
Welterweight bout: Matt Brown vs. Seth Baczynski------------Don't know much about Baczynski, probably will just stay away.
Lightweight bout: Shamar Bailey vs. Danny Castillo-----------Definitely like Castillo in this one, dont think bailey is very good at all. Hopefully line comes out around a pick' em

Definitely going to be parlaying Sandro and Lombard next week in bellator too.

[Thewisemann]

I like Hendo, just put a unit on em and half a unit on Bowles

[MMA_scientist]

I like Shogun. I may bet him. I think he is a better striker and more versatile. Really Hendo was getting beat my Bisping before the death punch. Fedor dropped him. I just think Shogun is better. Hendo has the wrestling though, but he never uses it and when he does he gasses out.

[edman5555]

Tough call. Hendo is enticing at +120 though. He has the wrestling but like you said he never uses it. Who knows if he will against shogun. That said, Shoguns kryptonite is wrestling.. Coleman almost beat him. Shoguns striking is better though. He also has good subs from his back, at least he has that go for broke mentality about them. That kinda makes it hard to bet this fight IMO.

Kampmann/Story: I dont really want to touch this one. Story is bad for Kampman wrestling wise. Kampmann is probably the better striker. This kinda reminds me of Story/Alves. Story only one that 29-28 though. Also, Kampmann has a good guillotine which could be trouble for story.

I will be on Lawlor for 1u pending some research.

Bonnar/kings and Wand/Le are tossups IMO

I feel like Faber has gone from overrated to underrated. That said Bowels has KO power. I'm not sure about this one. I will probably be on Faber but I have some work to do.

[Vandelay]

is the shogun fight 5 rds?