UFC on Versus 6

[poopoo333]

I am guessing Watson is gonna sub Sandoval and make my no sub of night bet look silly

[poopoo333]

prelims about to start on facebook

[SPX]

BTW, anyone else notice that Byron Bloodworth is pretty much the coolest name ever?

[SPX]

I don't even think that boat came to port. Even at -165 his line was just too high.

[Svino]

I'd like to do Wiman, but his line is just gay.

Same here. I like him to win, but I feel like I missed the boat.

[SPX]

X what are you playing tonight/thinking about? I know you stopped posting your plays in the bets threads so I figured I'd ask

Indeed, sir.

As of right now, 5u on Cruz to win 1.25u, 2u on Barry to win 1.15ish u, .5u on Brenneman to win .8u.

I'd like to do Wiman, but his line is just gay.

I haven't looked at the props yet so I might add something later.

[Svino]

Shut up.

Long story short though, there seems to be a window of good live bet value on distance props for fights that everyone expects to end quickly but don't. See: Souza / Rokhold, Hunt / Rothwell, Browne / Broughton.

[poopoo333]

X what are you playing tonight/thinking about? I know you stopped posting your plays in the bets threads so I figured I'd ask

[SPX]

Go do it right now.

[Luke]

Are ya'll niggaz ready for some live betting tonight?

dis idiot still hasnt put money in bookmaker.......fail

[Luke]

Shut up.

X cracking me up today.

[poopoo333]

Are ya'll niggaz ready for some live betting tonight?

[SPX]

Shut up.

[Svino]

That's interesting. I would like to see it by weightclass though. It is a fact that the heavier the fighters, the less likely a decision. I wonder what effect it has on distance though, assuming they get through the first round, I wonder if there is noticeable difference between HW and MW for example.

Well, the hypothesis is that both HW and MW fights would have an exponential decay, but that most HW fights would have a shorter "half life".

For example, a HW fight might be: 37% / 23% / 15% to end in the 1st / 2nd / 3rd rounds.

A MW fight might be more like: 20% / 16% / 13%.

The question of how to update fight length estimates after a fight has finished a round is a very interesting one; it's something I've been thing about a lot because of live betting. Suppose we stick with the "one-parameter" exponential decay model, and ignore specific details of how the round played out. And suppose you estimated that the fight was 50% likely to end in any given round it was active. One can think of two reasons the fight survived the round.

1) Your guess about the odds was right, and the fight just happened to land in the non-ending half of probability-space.

2) Your guess was off: the fight is actually less likely than 50% to end in a given round.

The reality is that it is likely a combination of both, and taking both into account properly is necessary to make a good revised guess for what the new distance lines should be. Making this adjustment correctly is the essence of Bayesian statistics, but applying it isn't that simple, because it requires you to have a good feel not only for what your initial guess was, but how much confidence you had in it. (Your "prior distribution".)

[SPX]

SPX : he never responds to texts

My bad, my phone was off. Just got it and responded.