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Luke -- He gets pissed when he thinks no one cares what he thinks, and he gets pissed when he thinks that people do.
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I heart cock -
This is BookMaker's list of distance prop lines for Johnson vs. Cruz. Why do people set up lines "upside down" like this? Has there ever been a fight that was, a priori, more likely to end in the third round than the first? I actually doubt it. And what kind of a loon would bet on a five-rounder to end in the fifth at only +300!? Danzig / Wiman is similarly inverted. It's going to be interesting to see how these lines evolve live as the fight progresses.
FIGHT ENDS IN RD-1 +550 FIGHT ENDS IN RD-2 +450 FIGHT ENDS IN RD-3 +400 FIGHT ENDS IN RD-4 +350 FIGHT ENDS IN RD-5 +300 FIGHT GOES TO DECISION -275
Supposedly, someone did a statistical study of UFC fights and concluded that a given fight was about equally likely to end in any given minute that it was active, up until about midway through the 3rd round, at which point that probability tails off noticeably. That certainly feels about right to me. (One way to think of this is that it's equivalent to fights having a given "half life" in the early rounds, So if a fight is 50% likely to be finished before the end of round 1, it is 75% likely to be finished by the end of round 2.)Comment
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SPX : he never responds to texts2015 MMA BETTING CHAMP
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Svino...bookmaker's odds on props are always weird. Last night they opened every single over/under (just about) @-115. Cruz/MM was over 4.5 was -115. If I tried to place that bet right away instead of checking it and looking at other lines, I would have gotten it. Danzig/Wiman over 2.5 was -115 as well. And they have a Bantamweight fight (that 1st one on the card) as an over/under 1.5..I think over 1.5 @-115 in most bantamweight fights always have value, unless Jason Reindhart is involved.Comment
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That's interesting. I would like to see it by weightclass though. It is a fact that the heavier the fighters, the less likely a decision. I wonder what effect it has on distance though, assuming they get through the first round, I wonder if there is noticeable difference between HW and MW for example.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Well, the hypothesis is that both HW and MW fights would have an exponential decay, but that most HW fights would have a shorter "half life".
For example, a HW fight might be: 37% / 23% / 15% to end in the 1st / 2nd / 3rd rounds.
A MW fight might be more like: 20% / 16% / 13%.
The question of how to update fight length estimates after a fight has finished a round is a very interesting one; it's something I've been thing about a lot because of live betting. Suppose we stick with the "one-parameter" exponential decay model, and ignore specific details of how the round played out. And suppose you estimated that the fight was 50% likely to end in any given round it was active. One can think of two reasons the fight survived the round.
1) Your guess about the odds was right, and the fight just happened to land in the non-ending half of probability-space.
2) Your guess was off: the fight is actually less likely than 50% to end in a given round.
The reality is that it is likely a combination of both, and taking both into account properly is necessary to make a good revised guess for what the new distance lines should be. Making this adjustment correctly is the essence of Bayesian statistics, but applying it isn't that simple, because it requires you to have a good feel not only for what your initial guess was, but how much confidence you had in it. (Your "prior distribution".)Comment
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Shut up.I heart cockComment
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Are ya'll niggaz ready for some live betting tonight?Comment
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Go do it right now.I heart cockComment
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X what are you playing tonight/thinking about? I know you stopped posting your plays in the bets threads so I figured I'd askComment
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