UFC 141 Ubereem vs Brock 12/30

[Vandelay]

Scientist what do you think about not reem by sub, fitch itd, cerrone by sub, and hettes by tko/ko? it comes out to about -225ish

[MMA_scientist]

I purposely left all Reem/Brock props off of my parlay. Overeem actually has more submission wins than TKO wins. I would not be entirely shocked if Overreem submitted Brock. Once Overeem tires, I think Brock can get that arm triangle on him or pound him out.

I don't like to put distance props in either, but Fitch probably is not going to be able to stop Hendricks. Hettes no TKO is probably safe, he only wins by sub and Phan has good defense and can take a lot of shots.

Still, at -225, it probably has value.

[Vandelay]

Overeem has that guillotine and probably would be more inclined to try to get up than attempt a sub off his back. If he's on top or has brock rocked, I doubt he would sink in hooks or attempt to lose position in an effort to finish the fight. Hendricks by sub isnt happening either.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, I doubt AO will sub him or really spend much time attempting to... but I think he "could." If he just gets overwhelmed and can't get Brock off him, he might go for it. I don't think he will get it, Brock's neck is just too big IMO.

Yeah, Hendricks is not submitting Fitch, that's why I have it in the parlay. I feel pretty damn strongly that it will not happen. I respect the hell out of Camarillo, and Fitch has been caught in some deep stuff and he always gets out. I even added into the 2011 parlay year end blowout.

[Ludo]

Support the fighters!

Aren't you usually in bed before the main card anyway?

[Mr. IWS]

Aren't you usually in bed before the main card anyway?

LOL

[poopoo333]

1. 12/30/2011 9:30 PM UFC Fighting 1302 Alexander Gustafsson* -340 vs Vladimir Matyushenko
2. 12/30/2011 10:00 PM Props Fighting 1054 Fight won't start round 4* -509 vs Overeem/Lesnar starts round 4
3. 12/30/2011 9:30 PM Props Fighting 1132 Any other result* -720 vs Cerrone wins by submission
4. 12/30/2011 9:00 PM Props Fighting 1228 Any other result* -1570 vs Hendricks wins by submission

That pays out like -114ish

[poopoo333]

As of now I have 3u on Brock @ +115 and 3u on Diaz @+280.

I am considering Gamburyan, I hope he gets closer to +300 but doubtful.

Was hoping Castillo would come out close to even, but I am going to stay away. Njokuani's striking has looked real good/improved since his WEC days, but we haven't seen him have to be a defensive grappler since Shane Roller. IIRC Barboza was able to take Njokuani down when he decided to. Thoughts???? I will probably stay away.

Ross Pearson is gonna win easy imo, Junior Assuncao is just gonna get F'd in the A.

Gustafsson should have his way with Vladdy as well, how does Vladdy win? Gustafsson is way more athletic and won't be controlled for 2/3 rounds on the ground by Vladdy...Vladdy probably won't even be able to get him down once. This is just another example of "new school vs gatekeeper".

I don't know how Pierson's T3D is, but DHK will probably do what he does best and win a decision on top...not gonna bet it though.

Matt Riddle/Luis Ramos..I don't know about this, I've only seen Ramos be KO'd in less than a minute.

I like Volkmann to win, but Escudero has a shot. He might be worth a small bet @ the current line, I don't really think Volkmann close to -300 is worth it. But then again he was able to beat McKee which I didn't expect. He also dominated Castillo on the mat. Escudero will probably look to stand and he should be bigger than Volkmann.

Phan/Hettes...I dunno. I like it to go the distance, it's only like -125 or so.

I think Fitch beats Hendricks with getting the best of the grappling. I think Hendricks best shot is if he is the one who presses forward instead of standing/waiting around/trying to only strike and gets Fitch down. BJ and Diego both were able to give Fitch problems like that. Or if Hendricks lands some heavy shots when they are clinched up/close. But I think Fitch wins, he is next WW champ.

[poopoo333]

1. 12/30/2011 9:30 PM UFC Fighting 1302 Alexander Gustafsson* -340 vs Vladimir Matyushenko
2. 12/30/2011 10:00 PM Props Fighting 1054 Fight won't start round 4* -509 vs Overeem/Lesnar starts round 4
3. 12/30/2011 9:30 PM Props Fighting 1132 Any other result* -720 vs Cerrone wins by submission
4. 12/30/2011 9:00 PM Props Fighting 1228 Any other result* -1570 vs Hendricks wins by submission

That pays out like -114ish

This is +177:

1. 12/30/2011 9:30 PM UFC Fighting 1302 Alexander Gustafsson* -330 vs Vladimir Matyushenko
2. 12/30/2011 8:30 PM UFC Fighting 1501 Ross Pearson* -300 vs Junior Assuncao
3. 12/30/2011 10:00 PM Props Fighting 1054 Fight won't start round 4* -509 vs Overeem/Lesnar starts round 4
4. 12/30/2011 9:30 PM Props Fighting 1132 Any other result* -395 vs Cerrone wins by submission
5. 12/30/2011 9:00 PM Props Fighting 1228 Any other result* -1570 vs Hendricks wins by submission

[edman5555]

I am thinking of taking nam phan. I am also considering castillo

[mike]

I am thinking of taking nam phan. I am also considering castillo

ím waiting for Phan to get better odds on bmaker but his odds havent been moving much. I had 2u on Hendricks and 2u on Cerrone. Probably gonna put 4u on Phan.

[edman5555]

Phan might get worse

[edman5555]

I think his sub defense should be pretty decent. His wrestling is also pretty adequate. Ill have to watch some more jetties videos to see how his striking is. Phan seems like a pretty good striker so I think that is where the difference will be. Phan also has more experience in the cage. He should know how to keep it a standup battle. That said, I don't know a lot about hettes, he might be better then I think. I read play by plays and caceres to a round off him.

[Luke]

All in Cerrone

[Vandelay]

Ive got about 7 units on phan to win 3.