TUF 14 Finale

[sbjj]

I'm not sure that DO see it, but have we not been watching this stuff long enough now to know that unexpected performances happen on a fairly regular basis?

Of course. But that kind of thinking could stop you from betting any fight.

[MMA_scientist]

Edwards got his back taken by Cody McKenzie. Just sayin.

[AC88]

Yeah, it's pretty much a mixture of how unimpressed I am with Yves lately and how impressive Ferguson looks.

[SPX]

Of course. But that kind of thinking could stop you from betting any fight.

Well I would say that lately I HAVE been a lot more reticent to bet fights at lines that I feel are too high and have been been taking more of a "better to be safe than sorry" approach. Huerta losing to War Machine just reinforces this.

[MMA_scientist]

I never bet a UFC coming to a smaller show as a favorite. They seem to lose a lot, I don't know if it is lost motivation or that they UFC is great at booting guys on the downslope.

[SPX]

Yeah, it's pretty much a mixture of how unimpressed I am with Yves lately and how impressive Ferguson looks.

Well I honestly thought Edwards would lose 2 or 3 in a row and be gone.

[Thewisemann]

If Ferguson in -200 or better I'm for sure gonna pound it.

[sbjj]

Well I would say that lately I HAVE been a lot more reticent to bet fights at lines that I feel are too high and have been been taking more of a "better to be safe than sorry" approach. Huerta losing to War Machine just reinforces this.

I think that is a very smart approach.

[sbjj]

Trying to decide if it is just my Bisping hate that is making me believe that Miller can beat him. Bispings price is dropping. So where is everyone at on this?

[SPX]

I think that if Miller can get him down--and Bisping is no super-grappler so I certainly don't think it's out of the question--then he has a decent chance of winning.

[MMA_scientist]

Trying to decide if it is just my Bisping hate that is making me believe that Miller can beat him. Bispings price is dropping. So where is everyone at on this?

I am on the same page. I think Miller can win, but not sure if it is because I hate Bisping. I do think Miller has to be competitive standing to stay in it. I think Bisping gets hit a lot but Miller is not a powerful striker... he would basically have to outpoint him on the feet. On the mat, Mayhem has a clear edge IMO. But Bisping is hard to take down and Mayhem is not really a great TD guy. Somehow Miller would have to end up on top of Bisping to finish him IMO. It is not like Mayhem is some super awesome grappler out there either... he is solid, but not like Palhares or Maia or Jacare getting you down, not going to be insta-submission IMO>

All signs point to Bisping. No bet for me.

[MMA_scientist]

Damn, I have almost talked myself into Bisping now.

[Vandelay]

I'll just bet the distance prop. It's tough to gauge bisping because of the utter lack of quality opponents faced. He's faced grapplers who refuse to grapple (Miller, Akiyama), Brawlers (rivera, Leben, Wand), and two well rounded opponents (Kang, Henderson). Kang is mentally weak with a poor fight iq and limited gas tank. We know Bisping is decently well rounded, has little power, good chin, good recovery, strong will to win. Miller is more of a wild card. Great grappler, limited wrestling, below avg power, low strength and striking ability.

[poopoo333]

Mayhem also hasn't fought in over a year.

[sbjj]

Damn, I have almost talked myself into Bisping now.

No doubt. That is what I was doing also.