UFC 142

[poopoo333]

1. 1/14/2012 10:30 PM UFC Fighting 1302 Erick Silva* -525 vs Carlo Prater
2. 1/14/2012 8:30 PM UFC Fighting 1802 Mike Pyle* -465 vs Ricardo Funch
3. 1/14/2012 11:30 PM Props Fighting 1128 Any other result* -5040 vs Johnson wins by submission
4. 1/14/2012 11:00 PM Props Fighting 1228 Any other result* -3250 vs Massenzio wins by submission
5. 1/14/2012 10:00 PM Props Fighting 1432 Any other result* -2875 vs Barboza wins by submission

What do you guys think? Pays out like -178ish

[Vandelay]

I'd rather put not belfort by sub. The guy never subs people, while johnson should be in better positions to go for subs

[mike]

Vandelay, that Lula guy does not look too impressive in the vids you posted. He's wide open for counters.

[Vandelay]

Defense isn't something he prioritizes im sure. He's aggressive though and throws a lot of punches. This, combined with Gonzaga's mediocre to subpar boxing ability and unwillingness to pull the trigger leads me to think Lula will take it. There's always the chance that Gonzaga knocks the dude out cold, but Gonzaga just isn't that good. He won't be taking lula down multiple times imo, he probably isn't training as hard, and he generally has bad gameplans.

[mike]

yeah this guy can def win this fight with his pace alone if he can keep a good distance. Gonzawa has massive power though so he only need to land one punch on this guy.

[edman5555]

Aj can probably take vitor down...he is a Massive judo champion...

[MMA_scientist]

I'd rather put not belfort by sub. The guy never subs people, while johnson should be in better positions to go for subs

But Belfort definitely has better sub defense. I don't think either one is worth the risk to your play there poopoo. It is not adding that much value.

[MMA_scientist]

Scientist, don't let them scare you, AJ got beat by Rich Clementi

Truth.

[Vandelay]

But Belfort definitely has better sub defense. I don't think either one is worth the risk to your play there poopoo. It is not adding that much value.

Yea good point. I agree, I don't see a sub happening in that fight

[trotterz]

By looking at the current odds and props, I noticed something which doesn't make sens

Johnson line is -110 right now ...If I bet 100$ and he wins, I get 90.91

By looking at the props,
Johnson by 3 round dec is at +266
Johnson Inside the distance is at +220

So in fact, if someone wants to play on Johnson, he get more money by playing 50$ on johnson by Dec (@ +266 to win 133) and 50$ on johnson ITD (@ +220 to win 110) instead of playing only johnson to win line

By playing on both props(50/50), you get odds of minimum +110 if johnson wins ITD and +133 if he wins by Decision.

I just noticed that for johnson, but I am defenetely going to look further on that matter when I will want to play single bets as of now.

As I already said in previous posts, I am french, not english, so if you have some dificulty to understand my explanations in my post, let me know and I will try to give better explainations.

[SPX]

Scientist, don't let them scare you, AJ got beat by Rich Clementi

Anderson Silva got beat by Ryo Chonan.

[edman5555]

Do you live in France Trotterz? Canada? I think you answered this already and stated you live in Canada.

[trotterz]

Do you live in France Trotterz? Canada? I think you answered this already and stated you live in Canada.

I live in Canada Quebec, so our english abilities over here are pretty similar to GSP

Did you understand my point in my post edman? I think that the breakdown is really interesting

[MMA_scientist]

I live in Canada Quebec, so our english abilities over here are pretty similar to GSP

Did you understand my point in my post edman? I think that the breakdown is really interesting

The flaw is that in order to win one, you would lose the other. So you would put $50 on both, so even though you would win $133 @ +266, you have to subtract out the $50 you will necessarily lose on your other bet, leaving you with a total take of only $83. You would be better off betting @ -110 and winning $90

And if you had the misfortune of winning a $50 bet @ +220, you would "win" $110, and then lose your other $50 bet, to take only $60.

So the average of the two lines is really $100 to win $71.50, a line of -140

[Vandelay]

Alright, i'm sold on AJ.