Saturday 6/7/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2025-06-05T06:37:05-05:00

Race of the Week: Saturday's Woody Stephens at Saratoga

June 4, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The American racing community fixes its eyes on Saratoga this week for the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, culminating with Saturday's final jewel in the Triple Crown. But before the 3-year-old clash between Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness winner Journalism, elite sophomore sprinters battle in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. It's a 7-furlong donnybrook with fascinating options.

Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet this Friday and Saturday are encouraged to take part in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners CITIZEN BULL and CHANCER McPATRICK top the credentials in the field of 11. MACHO MUSIC is a Grade 2 winner, while MADAKET ROAD, NEOEQUOS and GATE TO WIRE are graded stakes-placed. Those runners have kept the strongest company lines, but there are some class risers of serious repute to consider.

Pace:
Rapid. There's no shortage of gate speed, whether sprinters or routers, in this melting pot. MACHO MUSIC may be fastest, and from post 3 under a hustling Javier Castellano, figures to be an early target. Anyone who wins this on the front will have earned it; a strong finisher should get every chance if he fires.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-BIG TRUZZ: My most promising maiden winner of the 2025 Keeneland Spring Meet had me all-in on Kentucky Derby Day when he appeared in allowance company. He ran his race from post 10 in the slop, took a big shot at Woody Stephens return rival Patch Adams and just wound up second-best. They ran 102 and 105 BRIS late pace figures, fantastic stuff. This Justify colt is all racehorse and could pair beautifully with late-running jockey Joel Rosario.

#2-MADAKET ROAD: Consistent sophomore gets blinkers back on after a runner-up effort in the Derby Day Pat Day Mile at Churchill. He went 1-for-3 with the hood earlier in his career. No reason to think he's not a factor and could be the best price of his career (never over 5-1). In the mix, but will take pressure with MACHO MUSIC right outside of him.

#3-MACHO MUSIC: 13-1 upset winner of the Pat Day Mile has turned it on in his last 2 starts for Gulfstream-based trainer Rohan Crichton. The "speed of the speed" once again will have to take pressure and this, frankly, looks like a stronger field. But the shorter trip than last won't hurt if he can duplicate his last.

#4-PATCH ADAMS: Razor-sharp allowance winner on Derby Day at Churchill over Stephens return rival Big Truzz, getting this colt back on the beam. He showed great promise in November. The connection between those 2 big efforts and 3 other disappointments? He's 2-for-2 at CD and 0-for-3 elsewhere. Favored in all 5 starts, both he and Big Truzz must run Lasix-free in this Grade 1.

#5-CITIZEN BULL: Last year's Champion 2-Year-Old has seen the wheels come off in his last 2 starts when challenged on the front end of the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby. He'll race without blinkers for the first time and cut back to a sprint after 5 straight bids around 2 turns. Didn't really want to pass horses in last summer's 7F Del Mar Futurity when third as the favorite, and still may not. Route-to-sprint hasn't been a big boon for Baffert statistically.

#6-T KRAFT: Off since March, this Bill Mott trainee hopes to be a positive lead-in for barnmate Sovereignty in the main event. But he'll make a big rise in class off 4 straight wins. BRIS late pace figures are soft and, thus, his closing style probably won't bring enough oomph vs. these.

#7-COLLOQUIAL: All the speed-figure rage after a February 7 romping maiden win at Aqueduct. Parlayed that into massive favoritism in Keeneland's Lafayette Stakes and won that in more workmanlike fashion. Massive effort at Big A was only start with Lasix in 3 tries and vastly faster than the others, which is notable. Some pace versatility helps the cause with this difficult read.

#8-GUNMETAL: Hinted at stardom in his Fair Grounds debut win Dec. 26. Stuck between horses in an uncomfortable spot when disappointing in Gulfstream's Swale behind Stephens returnees Gate to Wire and Macho Music. His last win at Keeneland was much more like it while outside runners and may want that same sort of trip as Irad Ortiz Jr. becomes his 4th rider in 4 starts. Always felt he was this class of horse and gets a chance to prove it.

#9-NEOEQUOUS: Dueled Citizen Bull in the Kentucky Derby, putting that one away and leading between calls in upper stretch before the parachute came out. After 5 sprints to start his career, he's back where he blongs after showing class in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby at trips beyond his best. Couple of Saratoga works since and feels dangerous if he can stalk a couple of runners and pass horses wide on the turn.

#10-CHANCER McPATRICK: Star 2-year-old of 2024 returns to the scene of his debut and Hopeful wins, and just as importantly returns to 1-turn racing. You understand the Derby pursuit, but he came up short as a router and gets back to what he should do best. Sire McKinzie was big-time winner at the Spa and his limited offspring have excelled here. Gets pace and should be respected as Flavien Prat sticks over some other good options.

#11-GATE TO WIRE: Dominant Swale win over Macho Music and Gunmetal looks like an outlier in his form as he swooped up wide past the duelers at Gulfstream. Should get a similar kind of trip and could remedy some of his inconsistency. Not the first choice, but not without some consideration on his best with this pace set-up.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
No locks here, but CHANCER McPATRICK has been pointed to this race for 2 months after dashed Derby trail dreams and is proven over the track and distance -- plus, the right pace set-up.

Best Longshot Contender:
NEOEQUOUS ran 6 consistent races in succession before the Kentucky Derby and gets my nod.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$10 exacta part-wheel NEOEQUOS, GUNMETAL with NEOEQUOS, GUNMETAL, CHANCER McPATRICK, BIG TRUZZ ($60). $20 daily double in the Woody Stephens-Belmont Stakes special wager of GUNMETAL and NEOEQUOS to JOURNALISM ($40).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2025-06-05T06:37:39-05:00

Meet the Contenders: Saturday's 246th Epsom Derby

June 5, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Group 1 Epsom Derby has remained a highlight on the international calendar since 1780 and the 246th running of the English Classic from Surrey is set for Saturday. American followers have special interest as domestic turf star Tepin’s son Delacroix should go favored in a field of 19 that was drawn Wednesday. Post time for the Epsom Derby will be 10:30 am ET with first post from Epsom Downs at 8 am ET.

You can watch and wager on the full card from Epsom Downs with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet -- including a special international daily double tying the Epsom Derby to the same-day Belmont Stakes. Before that, we’ll get you up to speed with the 19 players in the mile and one-half showcase.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Epsom Derby (Race 5), listed in order of betting numbers and not the starting posts:

#1-AL WASL STORM: Purchased for a mere 7,000 pounds and by the obscure stallion Affinisea, many thought he was more suited for the jumps. Trainer Owen Burrows takes a massive leap in class off a maiden win at Chester in this colt’s third start. Debuted last of 7 at Newberry April 12 in an abbreviated campaign.

#2-DAMYSUS: Runner-up in the key Derby prep, the Dante, to return rival Pride of Arras. John & Thady Gosden train this Frankel colt, who has a win, second and a third from 3 starts. The elder Gosden reached Derby glory in 1997 with Benny the Dip and again in 2015 with Golden Horn.

#3-DELACROIX: American racing followers will flock to this son of star turf mare Tepin. First or second in all 7 starts for trainer Aidan O’Brien, a 10-time Epsom Derby winner. Dubawi colt has won both starts this year in Group 3 company at Ireland’s Leopardstown and was a nose runner-up in Group 1 company as a juvenile. Holds favoritism among many British bookmakers in the 5-2 to 3-1 range.

#4-GREEN STORM: 1-for-7 colt has run second 4 times, including France’s Group 1 Criterium at Saint-Cloud in October when chasing Derby rival Tennessee Stud. Returned a disappointing fourth in listed stakes company at Newmarket in April for his only start of 2025 under the eye of trainer Charlie Johnston.

#5-LAMBOURN: Fast-starting juvenile tailed off at the end of his freshman campaign, but has trended upward at 3, winning the Group 3 Chester Vase in his final Derby tune-up. Sire Australia won the 2014 Epsom Derby, among Aidan O’Brien’s record 10 wins in this race. O’Brien seeks a third straight Derby win, matching his streak from 2012-’14.

#6-LAZY GRIFF: German-bred colt closed his juvenile campaign with a Group 3 win in France at Chantilly and returned in May to finish second in the Group 3 Chester Vase in the UK to Derby return rival Lambourn. Charlie Johnston conditions the 2-for-6 colt by Protectionist.

#7-MIDAK: French-based supplement to the race runs in the colors of the late Aga Khan, a 10-time Derby winner who passed away earlier this year. Francis Graffard trains the stamina-laden colt who has won all 3 starts this year in his native country, including a Group 3 last out.

#8-NEW GROUND: French-based Juddmonte Farms’ colt has won half of his 4 outings with a pair of third-placings. Henri-Francois Devin trains the colt whose victories both came at age 2. Third in April’s Group 3 Prix la Force at Longchamp and a disappointing third in listed company May 2 at Chantilly. Juddmonte has owned a trio of Derby winners, most recently Workforce in 2010.

#9-NIGHTIME DANCER: Lingfield Derby Trial third-place finisher has won 1 of 3 career starts, a maiden in April over the Derby distance of 12 furlongs at Southwell. Richard Hannon trainee has raced on synthetic surfaces in his last 2, debuting third on grass at Newmarket in November. From the first crop of sire Ghaiyyath, who also has Derby entrant Shanhope Gardens.

#10-NIGHTWALKER: Frankel colt has won 1 of 5 but owns 3 additional placings, including a Group 3 last year. Fifth last out at York in the Group 2 Dante behind Derby returnees Pride of Arras and Damysus. John & Thady Gosden The elder Gosden reached Derby glory in 1997 with Benny the Dip and again in 2015 with Golden Horn.

#11-PRIDE OF ARRAS: Winner of the key Derby prep, the Group 2 Dante at York on May 15, for trainer Ralph Beckett – who also has Stanhope Gardens in the gate. The son of New Bay is 2-for-2 having a debut score under his belt in August at Sandown. Light on experience off that 18-1 upset, as is his upstart rider Rossa Ryan getting his second Derby mount. Beckett has won the Oaks twice and seeks his first Derby. Third choice among the British bookmakers around odds of 9-2 to 5-1.

#12-ROGUE IMPACT: James Owen trainee was last of 6 to Puppet Master et al in the Lingfield Derby Trial on May 10. He’s won 1 of 3, a Lingfield maiden score on the synthetic April 23 topping the chart at the 12-furlong Derby distance. Well back in a maiden debut last August at Newmarket in only grass try.

#13-RULING COURT: Kentucky-bred by 2018 US Triple Crown winner Justify sold for $2.4 million at the 2-year-old in-training sales. Paid immediate dividends for Godolphin with a July debut win at Sandown before finishing third in the Group 3 Acomb at York at summer’s end. Won Meydan’s 2000 Guineas in Dubai in his sophomore return before taking the Group 1 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 3. He’s yet to extend beyond a mile, but sire Justify already repped by 2024 Derby winner City of Troy. Charlie Appleby has 2 Derby wins on his ledger, Masar in 2018 and Adayar in 2021. Second choice among the British bookmakers at 7-2 odds.

#14-SEA SCOUT: Son of 2009 Derby winner Sea the Stars has won 2 of 4 starts for Simon & Ed Crisford. Tallied the listed Blue Riband Trial over this course at 10 furlongs in April, but disappointed stepping up in class when eighth in the Group 2 Dante at York vs. Pride of Arras et al. Split 2 decisions on the Polytrack as a juvenile.

#15-STANHOPE GARDENS: Trainer Ralph Beckett gave this Group 3-placed juvenile a light rehearsal in his only start this year, winning a 3-runner conditions race at Salisbury over a mile. He’s 2: 1-1 but has yet to extend beyond 8 furlongs. From the first crop of sire Ghaiyyath, who also has Derby entrant Nightime Dancer.

#16-TENNESSEE STUD: Group 3-placed May 11 at Leopardstown vs. barnmate and Derby rival Delacroix in his lone start this season. Highly credential juvenile by Wootton Bassett won France’s Group 1 Criterium at Saint Cloud and was runner-up in the Group 2 Beresford at home in Ireland. Trainer Joseph O’Brien rode Derby winners Camelot (2012) and Australia (2014) for his father, Aidan, during his career as a jockey.

#17-THE LION IN WINTER: Odds-on favorite failed in the Group 2 Dante when fading to sixth last out at York. It was his first start since 2 flashy wins as a juvenile, topped by the Group 3 Acomb at York in August. Aidan O’Brien’s 10 Derby wins are most of any trainer in history. Sire Sea the Stars won the 2009 Epsom Derby. Will break from post 19 of 19. Fourth choice among British bookmakers at 5 or 6-1 odds.

#18-TORNADO ALERT: Godolphin colorbearer races for Saeed bin Suroor, who trained 1995 Derby winner Lammtarra. Lightly raced colt by Too Darn Hot has tallied 1 of 3 starts, an October maiden race on the synthetic surface at Newcastle. Pace-setting fourth in the Group 1 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in his only start this season, part of a 1-3-4 dominance in that race by Godolphin. This will be his first start beyond a mile.

#19-TUSCAN HILLS: French-based colt for Raphael Freire won both starts during his freshman season on lesser circuits and was thrown in the deep end for the May 15 Group 2 Dante at York when seventh of 11. Spent much of the Dante making up for dwelt start before losing punch late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 2025-06-06T06:18:26-05:00

Scott Shapiro: Belmont Stakes Saturday Late Pick 5 Analysis

June 5, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

If you saw my blog on the wagering menu this weekend, you are aware of the quantity of horizontal bets available for horseplayers this weekend in Saratoga Springs. This is great because it allows us to leverage our strongest opinions, but there is no doubt one of the horizontal pools that will see the most attention is the Mandatory Payout Pick 5 that kicks off with the Jaipur (Race 9, 4:08 PM) and concludes with the Belmont Stakes. Think Big and Zulu Kingdom are listed as 6-5-morning line favorites in their respective races, but from there it gets a lot more challenging. That said, this is a sequence where unless you are willing to fade the favorites in the first two legs, trying to hit it multiple times instead of taking a big ticket caveman approach seems wise.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 9: Jaipur (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Ag Bullet
Backups: 2 Think Big; 8 Alogon

Forecast: Think Big is definitely the horse to beat in this 5.5-furlong dash over the grass. The Twirling Candy gelding has rattled off 3 in a row and 4 of 5 since switching surfaces in December for veteran conditioner Michael Stidham. He has hard to knock on paper, but certainly competed over the good part of the turf course last out when nailing Boss Sully in the final strides of the Turf Sprint (G2) on Derby Day. He has remained in the clear in his two graded stakes wins, but draws down on the inside today. It could work out perfectly if Ben Curtis is able to relax him, save ground, and work out a trip, but that is not always as easy as it sounds. Just ask #9 Ag Bullet.

Ag Bullet will likely have to prove herself over another turf course with give in it, but she certainly did not have a fair chance last out in the Unbridled Sidney (G3). It was Umberto Rispoli aboard this Twirling Candy mare against her own gender last month when she was stopped badly trying to find room along the inside of the Churchill Downs sod. She is 6 for 13, moves to an outside draw, and gets Flavien Prat. I like her chances to bounce back against the boys. #8 Alogon is the one likeliest to spring an upset. He ran very well off the layoff to finish third last out in the Elusive Quality and that came after losing significant position during the midway point of that 6-furlong dash. Jose Ortiz will get the leg up this time for trainer Ned Allard.

Race 10: Pennine Ridge (G3)
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 1 Zulu Kingdom
Backups: None

Forecast: I have tried to beat #1 Zulu Kingdom many times thus far throughout his 5-race career in the States. It only worked once. Sure, he competed over the better part of the Churchill Downs lawn in the American Turf (G1), but won somewhat easily in the end against a field of 13 rivals, some of who also had favorable voyages. The inside draw and Flavien Prat only add to this Chad Brown trainee’s obvious case.

Race 11: Woody Stephens (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8 Gunmetal; 9 Neoequos
Backups: 1 Big Truzz; 4 Patch Adams

Forecast: The Belmont Stakes and Met Mile will get more fanfare, but the best race on Saturday when you consider quality and quality of wagering opportunities is the Woody Stephens. This 7-furlong dash over the main track drew a great mix of Derby Trail types hoping to find their niche and up and comers that at least at this point or definitely sprinters.

For the most part, I prefer those that have not raced as much through the spring, but that is not the case with #9 Neoequos. The Florida-bred has really never ran a poor race. His Kentucky Derby result looks terrible on paper, but is extremely forgivable and it is difficult to knock his third-place runs in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1). He should get a chance to employ more patient tactics finally cutting back in distance and getting off the inside. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. legs up Jose Ortiz for the first time. I like his chances to run well, but trust #8 Gunmetal slightly more. The son of Gun Runner is 2 for 3 with his lone defeat coming when he was caught up in a three-horse battle on the front end in the Swale in early February. He draws favorably outside the other speeds and appears poised for a big run under Irad Ortiz Jr. The fact he should get a clean run on the outside, plus the jump on most of his main rivals is noteworthy.

#1 Big Truzz is a colt I am high on. Big Truzz’s rail draw is the obvious concern, but it should also inflate his price. #4 Patch Adams was one of the favorites to win the Derby this winter, but disappointed. He definitely appears better at one-turn, but has to prove himself outside of Louisville still.

Race 12: Manhattan (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3 Highway Robber
Backups: 6 Spirit of St Louis; 9 Far Bridge

Forecast: The morning line favorites #6 Spirit of St Louis and #9 Far Bridge look formidable, but this division in North America has no monsters. I will use those two as backups, but I like #3 Highway Robber most in this year’s Manhattan (G1). The Brian Lynch trainee ran huge all things considered last out in the Turf Classic (G1). Not only was it his first start back since racing unsuccessfully overseas, but he was down on the inside over a turf course that favored those racing well off the rail. The son of Hard Spun has races last year that put him right there at the wire with anyone in this field and he could easily get overlooked in the wagering. Hopefully jockey Christian Torres, who is taking over for the injured Declan Cannon, can work out a trip!

Race 13: Belmont Stakes(G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Baeza
Backups: 7 Journalism

Forecast: I have not been this excited for the Belmont Stakes in years. The Derby winner, the Preakness winner, and the less experienced third-place finisher out of Louisville. It should be one for the ages, but that does not mean you should use all three of them on your tickets together. There are definitely cases where that is okay, but they often require aggressive plays in other races. So, take a stand against unless one of them, if not two.

I have major respect for all three colts, but #6 Baeza is the best bet assuming he is more than at least double the price of Journalism and Sovereignty. The son of McKinzie nearly bested Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and then Flavien Prat’s hand was forced when he broke from the 19-hole on the first Saturday in May. He was finishing well in the Derby, still has upside, and should get the jump on his main rivals this time around.

If one of the other five runners entered wins the 2025 Belmont Stakes, I will simply tip my cap and admit I was wrong. Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza all seem like super legitimate 3YOs coming into this race in top form. One putting in a dud at the Spa, even two is well within the range of outcomes, but besting all three feels like a very tall task.

Saturday 6/7/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 6/7/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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