Saturday 6/7/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-05-2025, 07:37 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Woody Stephens at Saratoga

June 4, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The American racing community fixes its eyes on Saratoga this week for the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, culminating with Saturday's final jewel in the Triple Crown. But before the 3-year-old clash between Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness winner Journalism, elite sophomore sprinters battle in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. It's a 7-furlong donnybrook with fascinating options.

Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet this Friday and Saturday are encouraged to take part in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners CITIZEN BULL and CHANCER McPATRICK top the credentials in the field of 11. MACHO MUSIC is a Grade 2 winner, while MADAKET ROAD, NEOEQUOS and GATE TO WIRE are graded stakes-placed. Those runners have kept the strongest company lines, but there are some class risers of serious repute to consider.

Pace:
Rapid. There's no shortage of gate speed, whether sprinters or routers, in this melting pot. MACHO MUSIC may be fastest, and from post 3 under a hustling Javier Castellano, figures to be an early target. Anyone who wins this on the front will have earned it; a strong finisher should get every chance if he fires.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-BIG TRUZZ: My most promising maiden winner of the 2025 Keeneland Spring Meet had me all-in on Kentucky Derby Day when he appeared in allowance company. He ran his race from post 10 in the slop, took a big shot at Woody Stephens return rival Patch Adams and just wound up second-best. They ran 102 and 105 BRIS late pace figures, fantastic stuff. This Justify colt is all racehorse and could pair beautifully with late-running jockey Joel Rosario.

#2-MADAKET ROAD: Consistent sophomore gets blinkers back on after a runner-up effort in the Derby Day Pat Day Mile at Churchill. He went 1-for-3 with the hood earlier in his career. No reason to think he's not a factor and could be the best price of his career (never over 5-1). In the mix, but will take pressure with MACHO MUSIC right outside of him.

#3-MACHO MUSIC: 13-1 upset winner of the Pat Day Mile has turned it on in his last 2 starts for Gulfstream-based trainer Rohan Crichton. The "speed of the speed" once again will have to take pressure and this, frankly, looks like a stronger field. But the shorter trip than last won't hurt if he can duplicate his last.

#4-PATCH ADAMS: Razor-sharp allowance winner on Derby Day at Churchill over Stephens return rival Big Truzz, getting this colt back on the beam. He showed great promise in November. The connection between those 2 big efforts and 3 other disappointments? He's 2-for-2 at CD and 0-for-3 elsewhere. Favored in all 5 starts, both he and Big Truzz must run Lasix-free in this Grade 1.

#5-CITIZEN BULL: Last year's Champion 2-Year-Old has seen the wheels come off in his last 2 starts when challenged on the front end of the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby. He'll race without blinkers for the first time and cut back to a sprint after 5 straight bids around 2 turns. Didn't really want to pass horses in last summer's 7F Del Mar Futurity when third as the favorite, and still may not. Route-to-sprint hasn't been a big boon for Baffert statistically.

#6-T KRAFT: Off since March, this Bill Mott trainee hopes to be a positive lead-in for barnmate Sovereignty in the main event. But he'll make a big rise in class off 4 straight wins. BRIS late pace figures are soft and, thus, his closing style probably won't bring enough oomph vs. these.

#7-COLLOQUIAL: All the speed-figure rage after a February 7 romping maiden win at Aqueduct. Parlayed that into massive favoritism in Keeneland's Lafayette Stakes and won that in more workmanlike fashion. Massive effort at Big A was only start with Lasix in 3 tries and vastly faster than the others, which is notable. Some pace versatility helps the cause with this difficult read.

#8-GUNMETAL: Hinted at stardom in his Fair Grounds debut win Dec. 26. Stuck between horses in an uncomfortable spot when disappointing in Gulfstream's Swale behind Stephens returnees Gate to Wire and Macho Music. His last win at Keeneland was much more like it while outside runners and may want that same sort of trip as Irad Ortiz Jr. becomes his 4th rider in 4 starts. Always felt he was this class of horse and gets a chance to prove it.

#9-NEOEQUOUS: Dueled Citizen Bull in the Kentucky Derby, putting that one away and leading between calls in upper stretch before the parachute came out. After 5 sprints to start his career, he's back where he blongs after showing class in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby at trips beyond his best. Couple of Saratoga works since and feels dangerous if he can stalk a couple of runners and pass horses wide on the turn.

#10-CHANCER McPATRICK: Star 2-year-old of 2024 returns to the scene of his debut and Hopeful wins, and just as importantly returns to 1-turn racing. You understand the Derby pursuit, but he came up short as a router and gets back to what he should do best. Sire McKinzie was big-time winner at the Spa and his limited offspring have excelled here. Gets pace and should be respected as Flavien Prat sticks over some other good options.

#11-GATE TO WIRE: Dominant Swale win over Macho Music and Gunmetal looks like an outlier in his form as he swooped up wide past the duelers at Gulfstream. Should get a similar kind of trip and could remedy some of his inconsistency. Not the first choice, but not without some consideration on his best with this pace set-up.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
No locks here, but CHANCER McPATRICK has been pointed to this race for 2 months after dashed Derby trail dreams and is proven over the track and distance -- plus, the right pace set-up.

Best Longshot Contender:
NEOEQUOUS ran 6 consistent races in succession before the Kentucky Derby and gets my nod.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$10 exacta part-wheel NEOEQUOS, GUNMETAL with NEOEQUOS, GUNMETAL, CHANCER McPATRICK, BIG TRUZZ ($60). $20 daily double in the Woody Stephens-Belmont Stakes special wager of GUNMETAL and NEOEQUOS to JOURNALISM ($40).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-05-2025, 07:37 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday's 246th Epsom Derby

June 5, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Group 1 Epsom Derby has remained a highlight on the international calendar since 1780 and the 246th running of the English Classic from Surrey is set for Saturday. American followers have special interest as domestic turf star Tepin’s son Delacroix should go favored in a field of 19 that was drawn Wednesday. Post time for the Epsom Derby will be 10:30 am ET with first post from Epsom Downs at 8 am ET.

You can watch and wager on the full card from Epsom Downs with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet -- including a special international daily double tying the Epsom Derby to the same-day Belmont Stakes. Before that, we’ll get you up to speed with the 19 players in the mile and one-half showcase.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Epsom Derby (Race 5), listed in order of betting numbers and not the starting posts:

#1-AL WASL STORM: Purchased for a mere 7,000 pounds and by the obscure stallion Affinisea, many thought he was more suited for the jumps. Trainer Owen Burrows takes a massive leap in class off a maiden win at Chester in this colt’s third start. Debuted last of 7 at Newberry April 12 in an abbreviated campaign.

#2-DAMYSUS: Runner-up in the key Derby prep, the Dante, to return rival Pride of Arras. John & Thady Gosden train this Frankel colt, who has a win, second and a third from 3 starts. The elder Gosden reached Derby glory in 1997 with Benny the Dip and again in 2015 with Golden Horn.

#3-DELACROIX: American racing followers will flock to this son of star turf mare Tepin. First or second in all 7 starts for trainer Aidan O’Brien, a 10-time Epsom Derby winner. Dubawi colt has won both starts this year in Group 3 company at Ireland’s Leopardstown and was a nose runner-up in Group 1 company as a juvenile. Holds favoritism among many British bookmakers in the 5-2 to 3-1 range.

#4-GREEN STORM: 1-for-7 colt has run second 4 times, including France’s Group 1 Criterium at Saint-Cloud in October when chasing Derby rival Tennessee Stud. Returned a disappointing fourth in listed stakes company at Newmarket in April for his only start of 2025 under the eye of trainer Charlie Johnston.

#5-LAMBOURN: Fast-starting juvenile tailed off at the end of his freshman campaign, but has trended upward at 3, winning the Group 3 Chester Vase in his final Derby tune-up. Sire Australia won the 2014 Epsom Derby, among Aidan O’Brien’s record 10 wins in this race. O’Brien seeks a third straight Derby win, matching his streak from 2012-’14.

#6-LAZY GRIFF: German-bred colt closed his juvenile campaign with a Group 3 win in France at Chantilly and returned in May to finish second in the Group 3 Chester Vase in the UK to Derby return rival Lambourn. Charlie Johnston conditions the 2-for-6 colt by Protectionist.

#7-MIDAK: French-based supplement to the race runs in the colors of the late Aga Khan, a 10-time Derby winner who passed away earlier this year. Francis Graffard trains the stamina-laden colt who has won all 3 starts this year in his native country, including a Group 3 last out.

#8-NEW GROUND: French-based Juddmonte Farms’ colt has won half of his 4 outings with a pair of third-placings. Henri-Francois Devin trains the colt whose victories both came at age 2. Third in April’s Group 3 Prix la Force at Longchamp and a disappointing third in listed company May 2 at Chantilly. Juddmonte has owned a trio of Derby winners, most recently Workforce in 2010.

#9-NIGHTIME DANCER: Lingfield Derby Trial third-place finisher has won 1 of 3 career starts, a maiden in April over the Derby distance of 12 furlongs at Southwell. Richard Hannon trainee has raced on synthetic surfaces in his last 2, debuting third on grass at Newmarket in November. From the first crop of sire Ghaiyyath, who also has Derby entrant Shanhope Gardens.

#10-NIGHTWALKER: Frankel colt has won 1 of 5 but owns 3 additional placings, including a Group 3 last year. Fifth last out at York in the Group 2 Dante behind Derby returnees Pride of Arras and Damysus. John & Thady Gosden The elder Gosden reached Derby glory in 1997 with Benny the Dip and again in 2015 with Golden Horn.

#11-PRIDE OF ARRAS: Winner of the key Derby prep, the Group 2 Dante at York on May 15, for trainer Ralph Beckett – who also has Stanhope Gardens in the gate. The son of New Bay is 2-for-2 having a debut score under his belt in August at Sandown. Light on experience off that 18-1 upset, as is his upstart rider Rossa Ryan getting his second Derby mount. Beckett has won the Oaks twice and seeks his first Derby. Third choice among the British bookmakers around odds of 9-2 to 5-1.

#12-ROGUE IMPACT: James Owen trainee was last of 6 to Puppet Master et al in the Lingfield Derby Trial on May 10. He’s won 1 of 3, a Lingfield maiden score on the synthetic April 23 topping the chart at the 12-furlong Derby distance. Well back in a maiden debut last August at Newmarket in only grass try.

#13-RULING COURT: Kentucky-bred by 2018 US Triple Crown winner Justify sold for $2.4 million at the 2-year-old in-training sales. Paid immediate dividends for Godolphin with a July debut win at Sandown before finishing third in the Group 3 Acomb at York at summer’s end. Won Meydan’s 2000 Guineas in Dubai in his sophomore return before taking the Group 1 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 3. He’s yet to extend beyond a mile, but sire Justify already repped by 2024 Derby winner City of Troy. Charlie Appleby has 2 Derby wins on his ledger, Masar in 2018 and Adayar in 2021. Second choice among the British bookmakers at 7-2 odds.

#14-SEA SCOUT: Son of 2009 Derby winner Sea the Stars has won 2 of 4 starts for Simon & Ed Crisford. Tallied the listed Blue Riband Trial over this course at 10 furlongs in April, but disappointed stepping up in class when eighth in the Group 2 Dante at York vs. Pride of Arras et al. Split 2 decisions on the Polytrack as a juvenile.

#15-STANHOPE GARDENS: Trainer Ralph Beckett gave this Group 3-placed juvenile a light rehearsal in his only start this year, winning a 3-runner conditions race at Salisbury over a mile. He’s 2: 1-1 but has yet to extend beyond 8 furlongs. From the first crop of sire Ghaiyyath, who also has Derby entrant Nightime Dancer.

#16-TENNESSEE STUD: Group 3-placed May 11 at Leopardstown vs. barnmate and Derby rival Delacroix in his lone start this season. Highly credential juvenile by Wootton Bassett won France’s Group 1 Criterium at Saint Cloud and was runner-up in the Group 2 Beresford at home in Ireland. Trainer Joseph O’Brien rode Derby winners Camelot (2012) and Australia (2014) for his father, Aidan, during his career as a jockey.

#17-THE LION IN WINTER: Odds-on favorite failed in the Group 2 Dante when fading to sixth last out at York. It was his first start since 2 flashy wins as a juvenile, topped by the Group 3 Acomb at York in August. Aidan O’Brien’s 10 Derby wins are most of any trainer in history. Sire Sea the Stars won the 2009 Epsom Derby. Will break from post 19 of 19. Fourth choice among British bookmakers at 5 or 6-1 odds.

#18-TORNADO ALERT: Godolphin colorbearer races for Saeed bin Suroor, who trained 1995 Derby winner Lammtarra. Lightly raced colt by Too Darn Hot has tallied 1 of 3 starts, an October maiden race on the synthetic surface at Newcastle. Pace-setting fourth in the Group 1 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in his only start this season, part of a 1-3-4 dominance in that race by Godolphin. This will be his first start beyond a mile.

#19-TUSCAN HILLS: French-based colt for Raphael Freire won both starts during his freshman season on lesser circuits and was thrown in the deep end for the May 15 Group 2 Dante at York when seventh of 11. Spent much of the Dante making up for dwelt start before losing punch late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2025, 07:18 AM

Scott Shapiro: Belmont Stakes Saturday Late Pick 5 Analysis

June 5, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

If you saw my blog on the wagering menu this weekend, you are aware of the quantity of horizontal bets available for horseplayers this weekend in Saratoga Springs. This is great because it allows us to leverage our strongest opinions, but there is no doubt one of the horizontal pools that will see the most attention is the Mandatory Payout Pick 5 that kicks off with the Jaipur (Race 9, 4:08 PM) and concludes with the Belmont Stakes. Think Big and Zulu Kingdom are listed as 6-5-morning line favorites in their respective races, but from there it gets a lot more challenging. That said, this is a sequence where unless you are willing to fade the favorites in the first two legs, trying to hit it multiple times instead of taking a big ticket caveman approach seems wise.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 9: Jaipur (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9 Ag Bullet
Backups: 2 Think Big; 8 Alogon

Forecast: Think Big is definitely the horse to beat in this 5.5-furlong dash over the grass. The Twirling Candy gelding has rattled off 3 in a row and 4 of 5 since switching surfaces in December for veteran conditioner Michael Stidham. He has hard to knock on paper, but certainly competed over the good part of the turf course last out when nailing Boss Sully in the final strides of the Turf Sprint (G2) on Derby Day. He has remained in the clear in his two graded stakes wins, but draws down on the inside today. It could work out perfectly if Ben Curtis is able to relax him, save ground, and work out a trip, but that is not always as easy as it sounds. Just ask #9 Ag Bullet.

Ag Bullet will likely have to prove herself over another turf course with give in it, but she certainly did not have a fair chance last out in the Unbridled Sidney (G3). It was Umberto Rispoli aboard this Twirling Candy mare against her own gender last month when she was stopped badly trying to find room along the inside of the Churchill Downs sod. She is 6 for 13, moves to an outside draw, and gets Flavien Prat. I like her chances to bounce back against the boys. #8 Alogon is the one likeliest to spring an upset. He ran very well off the layoff to finish third last out in the Elusive Quality and that came after losing significant position during the midway point of that 6-furlong dash. Jose Ortiz will get the leg up this time for trainer Ned Allard.

Race 10: Pennine Ridge (G3)
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 1 Zulu Kingdom
Backups: None

Forecast: I have tried to beat #1 Zulu Kingdom many times thus far throughout his 5-race career in the States. It only worked once. Sure, he competed over the better part of the Churchill Downs lawn in the American Turf (G1), but won somewhat easily in the end against a field of 13 rivals, some of who also had favorable voyages. The inside draw and Flavien Prat only add to this Chad Brown trainee’s obvious case.

Race 11: Woody Stephens (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 8 Gunmetal; 9 Neoequos
Backups: 1 Big Truzz; 4 Patch Adams

Forecast: The Belmont Stakes and Met Mile will get more fanfare, but the best race on Saturday when you consider quality and quality of wagering opportunities is the Woody Stephens. This 7-furlong dash over the main track drew a great mix of Derby Trail types hoping to find their niche and up and comers that at least at this point or definitely sprinters.

For the most part, I prefer those that have not raced as much through the spring, but that is not the case with #9 Neoequos. The Florida-bred has really never ran a poor race. His Kentucky Derby result looks terrible on paper, but is extremely forgivable and it is difficult to knock his third-place runs in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1). He should get a chance to employ more patient tactics finally cutting back in distance and getting off the inside. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. legs up Jose Ortiz for the first time. I like his chances to run well, but trust #8 Gunmetal slightly more. The son of Gun Runner is 2 for 3 with his lone defeat coming when he was caught up in a three-horse battle on the front end in the Swale in early February. He draws favorably outside the other speeds and appears poised for a big run under Irad Ortiz Jr. The fact he should get a clean run on the outside, plus the jump on most of his main rivals is noteworthy.

#1 Big Truzz is a colt I am high on. Big Truzz’s rail draw is the obvious concern, but it should also inflate his price. #4 Patch Adams was one of the favorites to win the Derby this winter, but disappointed. He definitely appears better at one-turn, but has to prove himself outside of Louisville still.

Race 12: Manhattan (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3 Highway Robber
Backups: 6 Spirit of St Louis; 9 Far Bridge

Forecast: The morning line favorites #6 Spirit of St Louis and #9 Far Bridge look formidable, but this division in North America has no monsters. I will use those two as backups, but I like #3 Highway Robber most in this year’s Manhattan (G1). The Brian Lynch trainee ran huge all things considered last out in the Turf Classic (G1). Not only was it his first start back since racing unsuccessfully overseas, but he was down on the inside over a turf course that favored those racing well off the rail. The son of Hard Spun has races last year that put him right there at the wire with anyone in this field and he could easily get overlooked in the wagering. Hopefully jockey Christian Torres, who is taking over for the injured Declan Cannon, can work out a trip!

Race 13: Belmont Stakes(G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Baeza
Backups: 7 Journalism

Forecast: I have not been this excited for the Belmont Stakes in years. The Derby winner, the Preakness winner, and the less experienced third-place finisher out of Louisville. It should be one for the ages, but that does not mean you should use all three of them on your tickets together. There are definitely cases where that is okay, but they often require aggressive plays in other races. So, take a stand against unless one of them, if not two.

I have major respect for all three colts, but #6 Baeza is the best bet assuming he is more than at least double the price of Journalism and Sovereignty. The son of McKinzie nearly bested Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and then Flavien Prat’s hand was forced when he broke from the 19-hole on the first Saturday in May. He was finishing well in the Derby, still has upside, and should get the jump on his main rivals this time around.

If one of the other five runners entered wins the 2025 Belmont Stakes, I will simply tip my cap and admit I was wrong. Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza all seem like super legitimate 3YOs coming into this race in top form. One putting in a dud at the Spa, even two is well within the range of outcomes, but besting all three feels like a very tall task.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2025, 07:13 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 6/7/25

June 7, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Saturday, June 7 2024
Santa Anita Park

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-News At Ten (GB); 3-Nation.
Backups: none.

Forecast: News At Ten (GB) hasn’t won in a long time but at least he’s getting close. Just 1-for-15 in his career with seven seconds and thirds, the P. Eurton-trained gelding has developed a reputation as a non-winning type, and that makes him hard to back with confidence. However, the switch to J. Hernandez is monumental and could make the winning difference, so will put this Irish-bred gelding on top while also including on the top line Nation , fresh from a confidence-building maiden claiming win in gate-to-wire fashion with a good figure and likely to employ similar tactics right back.

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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2-Knightwithlouis.
Backups: 3-Petite Treat; 4-Approval Rating.

Forecast: Knightwithlouis returns to the mid-grade claiming level where she belongs after being overmatched in her last three starts. With her best effort, she’s quick enough to make the lead against this group and then survive in the final furlong. However, there’s not a lot of value to be found at or near her morning line of 7/5.

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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5-Man Child; 2-Zimba Warrior; 4-Ready to Pounce.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Man Child is a first-off-the-claim play for a high percentage outfit and seems likely to produce improvement. In the frame in five of his last six starts with two wins, the Creative Cause gelding should be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance to regain his winning form. Zimba Warrior returns to his winning level after being pitched too high in his last pair. He’s a five-time winner over the local main track and is strictly the one to beat. Ready to Pounce has races to go back to that puts him in the fray, so we’ll toss him in, but his last two outings don’t exactly inspire confidence.

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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Subic Boy; 5-Milken Cookies
Backups: 7-Curlin Command; 9-Miles Finch.

Forecast: Subic Boy walked out of the gate in his debut to be virtually eliminated, then made a premature wide move to enter contention at the head of the lane, failed to change leads, and then wasn’t knocked about late when sixth (beaten five lengths) in a similar maiden special weight sprint on the main track last month. He’ll try grass today and if he makes no mistakes should improve a ton, so at 10-1 on the morning line, he’s a gamble. Milken Cookies is an intriguing and dangerous first times starter from the P. D’Amato barn. We haven’t seen him on video – he’s been prepared at Los Alamitos – but the works look decent, and he’s bred for grass.

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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3-Elsa Dutton; 8- Lil’ Boom Boom.
Backups: 2-Flash That Smile.

Forecast: Elsa Dutton stayed on willingly to be second in a similar maiden $50,000 dash for state-bred fillies and mares and not much more should be needed to graduate today. Three steady works since raced give reason to believe that another forward move is likely. Lil’ Boom Boom is drawn comfortably outside and is a first time Lasix user. In the money in her last four starts, the daughter of Stay Thirsty gets a break in the weights and is a solid fit on speed figures.

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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 12-Mio Bambino; 2- Sir Rocket.
Backups: 4-Catmansue.

Forecast: Mio Bambino earned a career top speed figure when winning over the flat course facing starter’s foes last time out and should be competitive right back despite the switch to the Hillside Course and the raise in class to the first level allowance ranks. He’s lacking in tactical speed and will need some help up front but if the A. Mathis-trained gelding can work out a trip he’ll be dangerous at 5-1 on the morning line. Sir Rocket is lightly raced with room to improve. The N. Drysdale-trained gelding has the proper style for this layout and projects to have dead aim crossing the dirt and through the lane.

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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:22 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Cash Call; 1-Thought Process.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Cash Call stretches out for the first time and has the pedigree to handle two turns. Her recent first level allowance sprint win was impressive, as was her maiden score two races back, with both earning stakes quality speed figures. She doesn’t need the lead to win; in fact, as a presser and/or stalker the daughter of McKinzie should be quite comfortable. Thought Process returns following a highly productive juvenile campaign. She did have one dirt outing – her debut – but her form was established on grass and it’s tough to say if she’ll be as good on the main track as a 3-year-old. However, her comeback works have been borderline spectacular for P. D’Amato, who is strong with the layoff angle. You have to use her.

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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Ottoman Prince (Ire)
Backups: 11-Jeweled Shillelagh; 12-Spycatcher.

Forecast: Ottoman Prince (Ire) blew away a $32,000 claiming field over this course and distance last month while earning a speed figure good enough to beat this first level allowance field. There’s no reason why he can’t come back and do it again. It’s taken awhile for the Irish-bred gelding to get acclimated but now that he has the P. D’Amato-trained import should string together similar sharp efforts. At 4-1 on the morning line, he’s a good gamble in the win pool and in the various exotics.

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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:22 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6-Cela Hall; 5-Ponytail Pete.
Backups: 4-Tropical Rain Day.

Forecast: Cela Hall ran okay in her debut last month when third in straight maiden state bred company and today surfaces in a maiden $50,000 affair. We’re surprised at bit at the class drop, but the Jimmy Creed filly is a homebred from a barn that likes to win races and this is a field she should be ablet to beat. Ponytail Pete has shown some ability in morning trials and while we doubt she’s a world beater the daughter of Ministers Wild Cat should fit very well with these.

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Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 5:52 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 11-Edge of Mali (Ire).
Backups: 2-Auntie; 12-Church Lady (Ire).

Forecast: Edge of Mali (Ire) raced in heavy traffic but then stayed on well to be second (galloped out strongly) in her debut over the Dundalk all-weather surface in Ireland, after which she was sent to California and high percentage trainer J. Mullins. Her local breezes have been impressive and should have her primed for a major effort first time off the plane. She’s facing an okay group of maidens, but nothing as good as Currawood, the filly who beat her overseas and then came back to win again before hitting the board in two listed stakes. She’s a major gamble at anywhere near her morning line of 6-1.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2025, 07:14 AM

Al Cimaglia:The Battle of Lake Erie Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 7, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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Northfield Park has a loaded 16-race card featuring Ohio Sires Stakes action. The headliner goes in Race 11, the 39th Battle of Lake Erie which has a $200,000 purse. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)

4-Desperate Man (3-1)-Raced great last year to rally in a huge way to finish 3rd in The Battle after breaking stride going into the first turn. Some of last year's miscue could have simply been going too fast when making the turn after leaving from the 2nd tier. But, probably there was more to it. Not saying Coaches Corner caused the break but could have been part of the problem. Jason Bartlett was trying to dive over to the rail and his horse was rank into the turn. My point in bringing up last year is, with starting on the gate tonight there shouldn't be any issues going into the first turn. Matt Kakaley can get the top into the opening turn or soon after and then he will play catch me if you can.
5-Mossdale Ben N (4-1)-If things get too crazy and there is a contentious battle for the lead Ben could benefit the most. The hotter the fractions early on the better for this veteran. Also, keep in mind last year Little Rocket Man won coming from the back and the fractions were not spicy. The Peter Tritton trainee has no issues taking air, can keep grinding off a wide trip and will gobble up ground down the lane. Jordan Stratton is one of the best half-mile drivers in the game. He knows how to read a race and excels at being in position to roll by down the lane.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)

2-Scrappys Love (2-1)-Races well at the top of the stack and with this post draw should land on the point. Not loving the short price but gets a post edge on a tough foe in #8 Battle Hill. Seems to be in a good spot to pick up its 2nd win in 5 starts at Nfld.
6-Long Highway (6-1)-This colt doesn't have the resume of others but likes to win and is good form. Has come out on top in 2 of the last 3 starts. Should be a solid price and could juice up the gimmicks. Hugh Beatty can work a trip and be stalking close to the leader.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)

1-My Red Sea (4-1)-Doesn't have huge gate speed but has enough to be on the point or in the pocket early on. Isn't having the same kind of year as in 2023 when the mare posted 11 wins. Did face tough customers at Yonkers in the Blue Chip Matchmaker Series and beat Open company at ScD in its last start. Has won 6 of 12 at Nfld, and this looks like an efficient trip opportunity to take a picture.
3-Fearless Ginger (9/2)-The Burke entry also won its last at ScD against Open company and should be forwardly placed off the gate. Ginger has won 3 of the last 5 and can be a player in a competitive race.
5-Naked On A Hill (3-1)-Aaron Merriman is at the controls and this is the other Burke entry who in the last 5 races drew post 9, post 8, and post 7 twice. Does know how to win taking 15 pictures in the past 2 years. Figures to be a threat but Merriman may need to grind it out.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)

2-Billion (12-1)-Went off at 40-1 in its last start at ScD and tried to wire the field leaving from post 6. Faded to lose by a length and should offer a large price again. Kayne Kauffman has the gate speed to get a pocket ride behind the 7/5 chalk and look to use one nice move down the lane. Could be an interesting option in gimmicks as well and should be in the hunt at the wire.
3-Fear The Hate (7/5)-The Burke trainee is a perfect 4 for 4 this year and has won at 3 different tracks. Has looked the best and could be again with a smooth steer. Versatile colt can win on the engine or by coming off cover.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

4,5/2,6/1,3,5/2,3
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2025, 07:14 AM

Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know - Saratoga Saturday

June 7, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know”
Saturday, June 7, 2024
Saratoga

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race 1: Post: 10:45 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2-Roswell; 1-Save Us Melania; 8-Will Be Famous.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Roswell went sour last fall and was turned out. She’s fired fresh in the past and has numbers to go back to that can win, including a pair of 90+ Beyers over the local main track last summer. If ready, the W. Mott-trained filly can beat this field. Save Us Melania has won two of her last three with good numbers and was an easy winner in her only prior outing at Saratoga, albeit against maiden $20,000 company. Her Aqueduct form has been consistently solid during the winter and spring and her pace stalking/prompting style should produce a trouble-free trip. Will Be Famous, claimed in her last pair and now in the R. Atras barn, has never had much luck at the Spa and needs some help in the speed figure department but could produce an improved effort for her new connections. The veteran mare likes to stalk and pounce and should have her kind of trip, according to the projected race flow.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race 2: Post: 11:20 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Mainstream
Backups: 7-Draft Riots.

Forecast: Mainstream should be too quick for these. In the frame in both of his career starts, the son of Speightstown earned a monster figure (93 Beyer) when worn down late over a wet track at Churchill Downs on Derby Day and nothing more should be needed to earn a diploma against this group. He’s 6/5 on the morning line and on paper looks it.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race 3: Post: 11:55 ET Grade: X
Main Ticket: 7-Redistricting.
Backups: 4-El Rezeen; 2-Swifsure.

Forecast: Redistricting exits a series of graded stakes races and should thoroughly enjoy this class drop into the conditioned allowance ranks. Sixth but beaten less than two lengths in the Turf Classic-G1 at Churchill Downs on Derby Day, the Kingman gelding is very fast on numbers, and absent something unforeseen should verify his 6/5 morning line price.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race 4: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 9-General Partner
Backups: 1-Radio Red; 8-Hades.

Forecast: General Partner loves Saratoga – he earned a career top 101 Beyer when crushing an allowance field here last summer – and though he’s burned money in his last two starts as the odds-on favorite the son of Speightstown should have every chance to regain his winning form with the return to the Spa. He’s listed at 7/2 on the morning line and is a gamble at that price, if you can get it.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race 5: Post: 1:15 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2-Silver Slugger; 1-Unlimitedpotential.
Backups: 6-Antonio of Venice.

Forecast: Silver Slugger is a thoroughly genuine and consistent sprinter with strong speed figures and the proper pace pressing style for this distance. He started off cheap at Tampa Bay Downs but has worked his way right up the class ladder, and after missing in a photo in a graded sprint stakes at the Big A last time out the son of Cairo Prince drops into the first level allowance ranks to steal a purse. Unlimitedpotential isn’t as fast on pure numbers as our top pick but has run well at Saratoga in the past and has never been worse than second in four starts at this seven furlong trip.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race 6: Post: 1:55 ET Grade: X
Main Ticket: 6-Nitrogen
Backups: 2-May Day Ready.

Forecast: Nitrogen is easily the best sophomore turf filly in North America and will be odds-on to extend her winning streak to five in this year’s renewal of the Wonder Again S.-G2. She’s never raced at Saratoga and we’re not sure how she’ll handle soggy ground if that’s what she’s faced with, but we doubt the conditions, whatever they may be, will stand in her way.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race 7: Post: 2:37 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Mullikin; 4-Nakatomi.
Backups: 2-Crazy Mason.

Forecast: Mulligan won the Forego-S.-G1 over the Saratoga main track last year and although the R. Brisset-trained horse has not won in three subsequent starts, we’re thinking that the return to the Spa will get this talented son of Violence back on the winning track. He’s especially effective in extended sprints and is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat, so there should be no excuses. Nakatomi is back from Dubai, where he ran lights out when missing by a neck in the valuable Golden Shaheen S.-G1 at Meydan in early April. Another with proven winning form at the Spa, the W. Ward-trained gelding captured the A. G. Vanderbilt S.-G1 here last year and has been burning up the Keeneland main track in the morning since returning from the Middle East.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race 8: Post: 3:17 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 1-Fierceness
Backups: 2-White Abarrio.

Forecast: It’s very hard to pick against Fierceness in this year’s edition of the Met Mile, so we won’t even try. A perfect three-for-three over the Saratoga main track, the son of City of Light is very fast on figures and has developed the consistency that he lacked earlier in this career. He’s even money on the morning line and is likely to go lower.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race 9: Post: 4:08 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Think Big
Backups: 5-Arzak.

Forecast: Think Big has developed into a high class turf sprinter – perhaps the best in North America – and conditions appear ideal for the Twirling Candy gelding to extend his winning streak to four and five of his last six. The M. Stidham-trained four year old prefers to settle in mid-pack and then blast home and this rider knows him well and fits him perfectly. At 6/5 on the morning line he’s expected to win but not offer much in the way of wagering value.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race 10: Post: 4:47 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Zulu Kingdom
Backups: none.

Forecast: Here’s another short-priced favorite that will be a rolling exotic single on the majority of tickets. Zulu Kingdom has been beaten just once in six starts and most recently earned a career top number (90 Beyer) when winning the American Turf-G1 against a tougher field on Derby day at Churchill Downs. He’s 6/5 on the morning line and almost certainly (or should be) odds-on.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race 11: Post: 5:28 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Patch Adams; 10-Chancer McPatrick.
Backups: 8-Gunmetal.

Forecast: Patch Adams has two terrific sprint outings on his resume – a maiden win by more than 10 lengths last fall and a fast, highly rated allowance victory over a sloppy track on Derby day at Churchill Downs. In between were a couple of disappointing distance races, but this son of Into Mischief is clearly much more effective around one turn and he should continue his outstanding form at this seven furlong distance of the Woody Stephens S.-G1 for 3-year-olds. Based strictly on speed figures the B. Cox-trained sophomore is fast enough to win despite the class hike, and you may get close to his 5-1 morning line due to F. Prat opting for Chancer McPatrick. The latter, like our top pick, turns back to what should be his best trip after failing to perform up to expectations over a distance of ground. His sprint races last year were spectacular, and we expect to see the best he has to offer today, which makes him a major player.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Saratoga Race 12: Post: 6:09 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Spirit of St Louis; 5-Deterministic.
Backups: 3-Highway Robber.

Forecast: Spirit of St Louis, never worse than second in three career outings over the Saratoga turf course, has won three of his last four starts overall, including the Turf Classic-G1 on Derby Day at Churchill Downs. The C. Brown-trained gelding is consistent and reliable, and his best race is good enough to win again. Deterministic likes the front end and if he’s able to secure a trip as the controlling speed the rapidly developing son of Liam’s Map may prove to be an elusive target. He’s never been quite this good, but a career top 98 Beyer speed figure when winning the Ft. Marcy S.-G2 indicates he’s getting close.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Saratoga Race 13: Post: 7:04 ET Grade: A-
Main Ticket: 3-Rodriguez; 7-Journalism.
Backups: none.

Forecast: Rodriguez will be the controlling speed, and in two prior outings with that kind of trip the son of Authentic ran away and hid - most recently in the Wood Memorial S.-G2 - while earning triple digit Beyer numbers in both of those victories. Freshened and breezing better and better with each workout, the B. Baffert-trained colt may be stretching his limit at 10 furlongs but if not policed early he can take control from the gate and never look back to spring the upset. There’s a gamble here at 6-1 on the morning line if you can get it (and you should). Journalism will be racing for third time in five weeks. That’s really the only concern. Otherwise, the Preakness S.-G1 winning son of Curlin almost certainly will fire another big shot and be the one our top pick will have to hold off in the final furlong.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
Saratoga Race 14: Post: 8:02 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Taraj (Ire) ; Then.
Backups: 8-Smooth Breeze; 4-Deuteronomy.

Forecast: Taraj (ire) makes his U.S. debut in this first level allowance turf router and based on his European form the Irish-bred colt should outclass this field. The W. Mott-trained colt was Group-3 placed in Ireland two races back when assigned a 99 Timeform Rating, and that makes him a strong fit at this level on this circuit. He’s a first time Lasix user for a barn that generally does well with European imports. Then is the best of the local contingent. He’s a stretch runner with a dangerous late kick, so if the pace is normal or faster he’ll be heard from in the closing stages.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2025, 07:15 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #4

#1 En Tu Honor Bro	Forward player could get a tough go from the fence, but he's got some committed pace while racing fresh in a spot with what looks like a potentially fair race flow waiting for him. Some appeal off the bench.
#9 Miles Finch	He's tough here with his best, but I have a mild worry about the way he has given away some ground late in his starts -- seems capable, but vulnerable late.
#11 Scene By Me	Debuter is one of a few fresh faces in here, so get a look at them on the track and tote ahead of this. Would start my work with the firsters here.
Race Summary	En Tu Honor Bro may offer a midrange price while racing off the bench with Golden Gate form, but I'm hoping he catches a flyer from the inside and runs these off.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#2 Howin	Wonder if a couple potential speed types could set things up for this one to settle just a bit and try to finish late. Could still be some upside here.
#1 Thought Process	Her only dirt start wasn't as good as her turf stuff, but that also came in her career debut, so there might be more to offer here. She's back off the Breeders' Cup bench with tough running lines if she handles the main here.
#7 Cash Call	Not much wrong with the overall form here, and she should be right up on the splits while stretching around two turns. Mild worry that she'll get caught up in an honest tempo.
Race Summary	Howin has some appeal from off the pace here in a race where a couple stretchout players could ensure a fair midrace tempo.

Santa Anita - Race #10

#2 Auntie	She has shown a bit of mild late interest in both starts so far, and maybe the move around two turns gives her enough upside to step forward again today. Price might be OK.
#5 For Arrogate	She's back fresh with a decent Monmouth running line to her credit from last year, and she's got a big pedigree to run to. Lots to like.
#11 Edge of Mali	Second timer outran huge odds overseas at first asking and might have enough to land a share with this group that feels like it lacks a standout.
Race Summary	Auntie has a bit of finishing form that could play well here while stretching out, and the pedigree is there to handle the extra ground today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2025, 07:15 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Penn National - Race #6

#1 LADRO DI FICHI (3-1)	Can handle class rise off the claim with projected ideal set-up.
#2 LA MACCHINA ROSSA (2-1)	Drops, shortens us for third start of cycle, often runs 1-2.
#5 TILTED TIARA (7-2)	Held off ‘Ladro’ two back for 10th win at Penn National in 28 starts.
Race Summary	It’s a short field but it’s not short on speed types. That suits LADRO DI FICHI, who rallied for a win and a two near misses in her last four starts at 6F, now steps up in class for a 21-percent claim barn. Bet to win and place and play a 1-ALL exacta.

Penn National - Race #1

#2 BELLA PRIMA (8-1)	Kept good company, steps up off win, gets plenty of pace to rally into.
#7 THE FURMANATOR (4-1)	Hit board in four turf sprints, also projects ideal trip, must use in exotics.
#9 ABOVE THE LIMIT (5-2)	Good speed, 16/5-5-4 grass record, draws outside off layoff.
Race Summary	BELLA PRIMA, an 8-time winner and second-leading earner in the field, steps up off the claim and returns to turf. She rallied for second to Theodora Grace (5-27, $185k) when she last ran on lawn in September, met three consecutive next-out repeat winners this year before her recent 6-1/2-length romp. She’s a live longshot with plenty of speed up ahead. Bet to win and place and play a 2/7, 9/ALL trifecta.

Penn National - Race #4

#5 GRATED COCONUT (3-1)	Loooong duel on the inside took its toll on three-time beaten favorite.
#3 PAYNTER’S PRODIGY (5-	Survived the duel but was no match for winner in longer route race.
#1 BOOSTER SHOT (9-5)	Made ‘sweeping’ run at fleet-footed winner at CT, gets class relief.
Race Summary	GRATED COCONUT is a three-time beaten favorite since she was disqualified from a win at this level. She and PAYNTER’S PRODIGY were almost inseparable while dueling from early backstretch before the trip-sitting winner passed by in the lane. Give GRATED COCONUT the nod for a win and place bet on the cutback to one mile. Also play 5-1 and 5-3 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2025, 07:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine
PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race 3	Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)/ $1 Swinger/ NO SHOW WAGERING
Stakes • 7 Furlongs • All-Weather • Age 3 • CR: 91 • Purse: $125,000 • Post: 2:04P
FURY S. PRESENTED BY STELLA ARTOIS - FOR THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLIES, FOALED IN CANADA. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $125 EACH WHICH SHALL ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION AND AN ADDITIONAL $1,250, WHEN MAKING ENTRY. THE PURSE TO BE DIVIDED: 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 2% TO FIFTH, 1% TO SIXTH, 1% TO SEVENTH, 1% TO EIGHTH. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES OF $55,000 TWICE, ALLOWED 2 LBS.; OF A SWEEPSTAKES OF $55,000 ONCE, ALLOWED 4 LBS.; OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING OR RESTRICTED ALLOWANCE, ALLOWED 6 LBS. (NO CANADIAN BRED ALLOWANCE). FINAL ENTRIES TO BE MADE THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX AT THE CLOSING TIME THEN IN EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT EVENTS. A SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION MAY BE MADE NO LATER THAN THE TIME OF FINAL ENTRY, BY A NON-REFUNDABLE FEE OF $2,500, WHICH INCLUDES THE ENTRY FEE. (CLOSED WITH 16 NOMINATIONS) PLUS UP TO $19,800 ONTARIO SIRED/ ONTARIO BRED BREEDER AWARDS. $82,000 OF THE PURSE HAS BEEN PROVIDED THROUGH THE THOROUGHBRED IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * WINTERBERRY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SHIFTY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. NATA TROUBLE: Tod ay is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ARISTELLA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equib ase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	WINTERBERRY	7/2	4/1
1	SHIFTY	3/5	5/1
5	NATA TROUBLE	6/1	8/1
4	ARISTELLA	4/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	WINTERBERRY	3	7/2	Front-runner	83	89	95.0	84.2	80.7
1	SHIFTY	1	3/5	Front-runner	86	72	66.4	88.2	83.2
5	NATA TROUBLE	5	6/1	Stalker	87	78	70.8	77.6	72.1
4	ARISTELLA	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	65	53.1	80.6	72.6
2	MISS PIERRE	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	70	73.4	64.8	57.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2025, 07:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 1	Leg 1 of the Santa Anita All Turf Pick 3
Allowance • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Downhill Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 100 • Purse: $61,000 • Post: 3:34P
SA - R6 - DOWNHILL TURF FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $21,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACEOTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED)(HORSES ENTERED FOR THE ALLOWANCE ARE PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. PIPER'S CAUSEWAY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PIPER'S CAUSEWAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. UNCLE CHILLY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SIR ROCKET: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three i n TrackMaster Power Rating. MIO BAMBINO: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
9	PIPER'S CAUSEWAY	8/1	3/1
6	UNCLE CHILLY	6/1	9/1
2	SIR ROCKET	6/1	9/1
12	MIO BAMBINO	5/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	PIPER'S CAUSEWAY	9	8/1	Front-runner	93	91	118.2	94.2	87.7
5	THREE GEORGES	5	20/1	Front-runner	83	85	95.5	74.7	56.2
11	PAPA LOVE'S VEGAS	11	12/1	Front-runner	90	85	76.8	73.9	59.4
2	SIR ROCKET	2	6/1	Stalker	95	94	103.6	89.3	83.3
10	CARDIFF CRACK	10	30/1	Stalker	104	103	101.4	83.1	70.1
6	UNCLE CHILLY	6	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	98	99	94.8	89.6	82.6
12	MIO BAMBINO	12	5/1	Trailer	95	98	92.7	93.7	83.2
8	SHARONA'S WILD BOY	8	30/1	Trailer	96	96	86.0	92.3	77.8
7	ANNAN	7	7/2	Trailer	93	95	77.4	78.8	65.8
4	CATMANSUE	4	9/2	Trailer	100	95	77.3	92.1	80.1
3	BID ON THE PRIZE	3	50/1	Trailer	94	86	0.0	0.0	0.0
1	THE SHILLELAGH	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	86	74.0	74.5	56.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2025, 07:20 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #6 - Post: 2:41pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $47,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#6 DRILL BABY (ML=2/1)

DRILL BABY - Horse's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. Last race was at Pimlico in a race with a class figure of 85. Dropping a significant amount in class figure this time out puts him in a solid position in this event. Have to like the way Compton has raced this horse back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. This equine didn't run well on a track listed as good in his last race around the track at Pimlico. You probably want to ignore that performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 RHYTHM 'N BLUES (ML=4/1), #5 VENETO (ML=6/1), #11 PEDIATRICIAN (ML=8/1),

RHYTHM 'N BLUES - Just cannot wager on any vulnerable equine right back after he doesn't hit the board after any long vacation. VENETO - Much too far back in the early going of the last route race will probably make it tough to make an impact today in this sprint event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 DRILL BABY to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2025, 07:21 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Mile

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21500 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING $17,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $17,500. ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $22,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 RACE HOME 7/1
# 4 IT'S A FACT 5/1
# 1 WEDGE POND 2/1

RACE HOME supports the wager in here and the potential return justifies the very dangerous nature of the long odds. He has recorded solid numbers under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this field. Put up a reliable Equibase Speed Figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. He has competitive class ratings, averaging 98, and has to be carefully examined in this race. IT'S A FACT - Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 80 speed figure which is one of the strongest in this group of horses. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. WEDGE POND - Could best this group of animals here, showing strong figures of late. When Rycroft uses Asencio there's a good chance for an increase in income.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2025, 07:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race #11 - Post: 5:58pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $67,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#3 COLONEL CALIENTE (ML=7/2)
#9 GLOBAL QUOTE (ML=3/1)
#1 WHERE Y'AT (ML=6/1)

COLONEL CALIENTE - Have to make this colt a solid contender; he comes off a solid effort on May 16th. A repeat of that last effort on May 16th where he notched a rating of 89 looks high enough to win in this affair. Last race at Churchill Downs, he broke from the far outside. I don't need an advanced degree like The Brain to tell me his inside post today should help. GLOBAL QUOTE - Many positive 'sensations' associated with this horse and his stable. WHERE Y'AT - This entrant could be tough in this race, especially since Morales rode last time around the track and now should be more familiar with this one. This thoroughbred coming off a sharp performance in the last 30 days is a win candidate in my opinion. Horse has improved at least two Equibase speed fig points in last two races. I look for that positive trend to continue in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 TOM CAT TUESDAY (ML=4/1), #4 DAIQUIRI SOMMELIER (ML=8/1),

TOM CAT TUESDAY - Doesn't seem to be in a cozy situation this time around. DAIQUIRI SOMMELIER - The speed rating last race out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this racer as a possibly overvalued contestant.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - COLONEL CALIENTE - Steady improvement in his speed ratings, 89 last race and 74 two races back. This racer is going to be tough against these ponies.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #3 COLONEL CALIENTE on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,3,9] with [1,3,9] with [1,3,4,9,11] with [1,3,4,9,11] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	[1,3,9] with [1,3,9] with [1,3,4,9] with [1,3,4,9,10,11] with [1,3,4,9,10,11] Total Cost: $72

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2025, 07:21 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $17500 Class Rating: 53

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 JEG POLITICAL CARTEL 12/1
# 5 ASC TEMPTER 20/1
# 2 TEMPT N FIRE 10/1

JEG POLITICAL CARTEL looks very good to best this group especially at such a decent 12/1. Ought to compete very well in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group. He should have a strong performance versus this softer lot. The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a turnaround for this gelding. ASC TEMPTER - Looks very good versus this group of horses and should be one of the early speedsters. This gelding looks like a longshot play. TEMPT N FIRE - Has a very strong shot in this race if you like back class. Conditioner boasts strong win figs at this distance and surface.