11-24-11

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West Capper NFL

They are a documented 34-19 in the past month, and release plays rated 1-5 units. They've only released six 4**** games this year and are 5-1 in those games.

4**** Detroit Lions +7 (-130)

Their write up made note that they think the Packers will lose this week or to the Giants next week, because their D-Line are one of the few in the NFL that can get pressure to Rodgers without blitzing every play, and he thinks the Packers corners will struggle downfield with Megatron's size. They like the Lions to win straight up in this one on Turkey Day, and recommended you buy the full point to get to key number +7.

Detroit 28
Green Bay 27

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Arlon Sports

Thursday November 24

NFL
1* Detroit Lions.
2* Baltimore Ravens

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Sixth Sense

Another winning week, going 2-1 +2.70%. For the season, the record now stands at 40-24 62.50% +40.80%.

BEST BETS

YTD 40-24 +40.80%

3% DETROIT +6.5 Must get at least 6 points
3% DALLAS –7 No higher than -7
3% BALTIMORE –3 –120 No higher than -3
3% SAN FRANCISCO/BALTIMORE OVER 38.5 No higher than 40 Reply With Quote

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The Busted Bookie

5* FAIRFIELD -3

10* UMASS +8.5

5* WAKE FOREST +6.5

5* UCF @ CHARLESTON - OVER 139

NCAAF
5* TEXAS @ TEXAS A&M - OVER 52.5

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Kevin Thomas (ksp)

NFL
20* Miami +7

NCAAF
30* UNDER 54 - Texas @ Texas A&M

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SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT +7 over Green Bay

The Lions haven’t had a meaningful Thankgiving Day game since the pilgrims landed at Plymouth Rock. With Detroit being penciled in each year on this American holiday, this was typically a game when the bumbling Lions would display their ineptitude to all. Rarely was it pretty. Now comes an opportunity to show everyone that things have changed. The Packers are clearly the class of the league but they have shown some vulnerability, particularly on pass defense. Green Bay can mask that inefficiency with its powerful passing game but surprisingly, defending the pass is one of Detroit’s strengths. The Lions currently rank 5th best in the league, giving up just 192 yards per game through the air. With a potent offense of its own and a frenzied crowd behind them, this matchup allows for us to take the converted touchdown being offered in a game that may come down to last team with the ball wins. You always pay a premium when wagering on the Pack and with this being a featured game with a ton of betting action, that premium is even higher for this one. Play: Detroit +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).


DALLAS –7 +104 over Miami

With apologies to Miami fans, we just can’t get jacked up about the Dolphins current three-game winning streak. A look at Miami’s opponents during this present run consists of three of the more incompetent teams in the league. The combination of Kansas City, Washington and Buffalo reveals a trio that is currently on a 0-10 run while being outscored 277-86 in that span. Now the Fish must travel on a short week to play a Dallas team that is battling for its division and will remain focused throughout. Clearly, this is Miami’s toughest assignment in a month. They will have to contend with the hot hand of Tony Romo, who has been on a tear and with his downfield capabilities, expect the ‘Boys to attack Miami’s suspect secondary. With Dallas having gone to overtime against the rival Redskins last week and the ‘Fins being on this streak, this price gets reduced, allowing us a Thanksgiving Day bargain. Play: Dallas –7 +104 (Risking 2 units).


BALTIMORE –3½ +106 over San Francisco

The Harbowl. Now that that’s out of the way we can concentrate on the task at hand. Frankly, we feel that it’s not much of a task at all. While we commend the Niners for what they have accomplished on the field this season, there is too much compensation being allocated for this one. The Ravens are a perfect 5-0 at home this season, in addition to winning 16 of their past 17 as hosts. Even though San Francisco’s defense has been outstanding this year, it won’t rattle these Birds. Baltimore has had visits from similar types with the Steelers, Texans and Jets stopping by. Not only did the Ravens sweep those teams, they did it convincingly by a combined 98-38 with the closest margin being 15 points. The Ravens are a battle-tested squad. Same can’t be said of the Niners, hailing from the weak NFC West. Now, this visitor is coming west to east on a short week, which they’ve openly complained about, while the Ravens have been sitting home for more than a week after hosting last Sunday. All things considered, spotting a field goal is cheap here, as the 49ers are not close to being as elite as their record suggests. A correction in that record is forthcoming. Play: Baltimore –3½ +106 (Risking 2 units).

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Wunderdog

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Detroit Lions +6.5

The Green Bay Packers have been unbeatable over their last 16 games and are off to a 10-0 start this season. Can this team run the table? The notion of perfection has increased as the wins mount. I think that answer will be clearer after the next two weeks when the Lions and Giants take a shot at them. Detroit has risen from the ashes of the worst team in football over the past five years to utilize their futility and turn top draft picks into quality NFL players. The Lions are 7-3 and appear to be playoff bound. After seven indigestion-filled Thanksgiving losses both straight-up and ATS, the Lions will be looking for an Alka-Seltzer free Thanksgiving meal. The Packers have some chinks in the armor. Their defense has been poor against the pass all season and their stats defy a 10-0 team as they have outgained opponents by less than 20 yards per game, which doesn't equate to a 10-0 team. Their offensive line is highly suspect, especially without veteran Chad Clifton. The Lions are a good pressure-defense and are very solid against the pass. QB Matt Stafford has quietly thrown more TD passes than all but opposing QB Aaron Rogers with 25. I expect them to play well enough to stay inside this number. Take Detroit in this one.


Texas vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -7.5

The Texas Longhorns have a mediocre offense this season, but that isn't the worst part of it. They currently have their top three running backs and their top wide receiver dealing with injuries. The end result is a Texas team than has scored all of 18 points in their last two games combined. Texas enters with a 6-4 record on the season, but a closer look shows them not getting it done vs. the better teams in the conference at 0-4. The Aggies have dropped five games to teams with a combined record of 43-11. They lost to Oklahoma State by just a single point and to Arkansas by just 4 points. They also fell in overtime to Kansas State by just 3 points. Texas has had trouble getting the money vs. winning teams at 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27, and have also dropped their last five as a dog. College Station has been no picnic for the Horns either as they are 1-5 ATS in their last six here. Lay the points and play on Texas A&M.

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Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

DALLAS -7 over Miami: The Dolphins have won 3 in a row, but none of those games were vs the caliber of the Cowboys. This is an important game for Dallas as they are in a big fight for the NFC East. Their offense is solid at 6th overall 10th in rushing and 9th in scoring. maim has been solid vs the run, but just 27th vs the pass, so they will have all sorts of problems trying to contain this Dallas passing offense that is 6th in the league, putting up 277 ypg. The Miami defense has played well overall, but the last time they played a passing offense this good was vs New England in the opening game and they allowed over 500 yards passing in that one. I don't expect the Cowboys to put up that much offense, but they won't have to either as this Miami offense has been horrible this year, putting up just 19.3 ppg overall and 17.2 ppg on the road. They will really find the going tough in this one as Dallas is 10th in total defense (328.6 ppg) and 12th in scoring defense (20.6 ppg), plus the Cowboys have allowed just 15.4 ppg and 303.6 ypg at home this year. Even though their defense has been good, Miami just doesn't have enough offense to keep this one close. Dallas by 10+.

3 UNIT PLAY

Baltimore/ San Francisco under 38.5: The Niners are 9-1 on the year, but it has not been due to their offense. Yes they are 8th in the league in scoring, but just 20th in the league in total offense. For this team it has been Turnovers as they are 1st in the league in TO margin and those TO's have led to alot of short fields and easy scores. This is not a team that goes the length of the field too often and they are 19th in the league in yards per play (5.3). The Niners defense has been stout this year and they are 1st in points allowed (14.5) ppg and 8th in yards allowed (323), plus they have allowed just 12.7 ppg in their last 3 games overall and just 13.5 ppg in their games on artificial turf this year. The Ravens are not a truly explosive offense as they are 20th in the league in yards per play (5.2). The Ravens offense has been average this year at 15th overall, but they do rank 7th in scoring at 25.6 ppg, but like the Niners that is due to getting TO's. Both teams live off of TO's, but neither team gives it up much so I expect both teams to have to work the whole field to get scores and that should be tough vs these top notch defenses. Baltimore is in the top ten in Total defense, rushing defense, passing defense and points allowed and they should be able to keep this Niners squad from getting alot of points, while the niners ground game and defense will limit the Ravens from putting many points up. I see no more than 30 in this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

Dallas/ Miami Under 44.5: Miami's last 3 games have averaged just 35.4 ppg and its mostly because of a conservative game plan and a tough defense that has allowed just 6.7 ppg over that stretch.Overall this year it has been their defense that has been pretty solid as they have allowed just 18.6 ppg overall and just 18 ppg on the road. The Dallas defense has been very good this year as they have allowed just 328.6 ypg overall (10th) and just 20.6 ppg (12th). At home this Dallas defense has been really stingy, allowing just 15.4 ppg and 303.6 ypg and they should really be able to shut down a Miami team that has put up just 17.2 ppg and 304 ypg on the road. Overall, Miami doesn't really have an offense and in order to win they know they can't trade points, so they will look to use their solid run game (15th) to shorten the game and keep this very good Dallas offense off the field. I do expect Dallas to get their fair share of points, but Miami's futile offense will keep this one from going over the total. KEY ANGLE: The OU is 13-38, since 1992, when Miami plays a team with a winning pct of 60-75 during the 2nd half of the season.

1 UNIT PLAY

Green Bay -6.5 over DETROIT:The Packers are on a mission right now and I don't feel that the Detroit defense will come up with enough stops to keep this one close. Green Bay by 10+

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DOUBLE DRAGON TURKEY SHOOT

HYDRA
TEXAS A&M -7 (-130) vs texas (Thursday, Nov. 24th - 5pm PDT)

REGULAR
PACKERS -6 at lions
COWBOYS -7 vs dolphins
49'ERS +4 (-120) at ravens

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Free-SportsPicks
11/24 Consensus play

NFL Miami Dolphins +7

Happy Thanksgiving!

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LEGIT PICKS Dot NET

Thursday 11/24/11 Plays...

HIGHEST RATED 6* PACKERS

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powerplaywins
packers -6
cowboys -7
texas a&m -7.5
1 unit

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Fast cash eddy total of the year
Over Tex/TexA&M

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GAMBLERS DATA

indy.st-4 5*

uconn-13 5*

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JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Central Michigan +11 over New Mexico State