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VEGAS EXPERTS
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Not sure yet if the Lions are good enough to beat the Packers outright, but we definitely like them plus the points here at Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day. Yes, Detroit is a miserable 0-7 SU/ATS on Turkey Day since 2004, but this is an entirely different outfit as they bring their best record into the holiday in years at 7-3 SU and over the last two seasons they are a perfect 8-0 ATS if they went Over in their previous two games.
Play on: Detroit
Matt Rivers
Comp play winner now to get the day started is to play the over in the Green Bay-Detroit game to get the festivities started.
Both teams have been playin' em high of late, as the Packers have sailed over the total in four in a row, while the Lions have also been playin' em high of late with overs in their last three.
For the season, both teams are 7-3 over the total in their ten games played. In the series, the over has come through in five of the last eight meetings.
The Lions are on an overall 16-8-2 over clip their last 26 games played, and this one sure has the makings of a very offensive affair to start your holiday off.
Packers and Lions do not disappoint, go over in the first of three NFL affairs for this Turkey Day.
5♦ OVER
Jim Feist
Dolphins vs Cowboys
Play: Over 44
It took a while but the Miami offense has learned to score some points behind QB Matt Moore (7 TDs, 5 INTs) and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, scoring 31, 20 and 35 the last three games. But the problem here is the defense, which is allowing 251 yards passing per game (25th) and faces a talented Dallas offense. QB Tony Romo (19 TDs, 7 INTs) has a slew of talented weapons in WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten and RB DeMarco Murray, No. 6 in the NFL with 277 yards passing per game. Dallas comes home from a big division win Sunday, 27-24 in OT, at Washington. The offense had 353 yards, 292 passing from Romo who had 3 TDs, no picks. The Cowboys are 19-9 over the total in their last 28 games and they should tear up this soft Miami secondary. Play the Cowboys/Dolphins Over the total.
Jack Jones
Texas/Texas A&M OVER 53
Odds makers have set the bar too low Thursday in a Big 12 game that should see enough offensive fireworks to climb OVER the number by game's end. The books have put too much stock in the Longhorns' last two games, which resulted in low-scoring outputs against two of the better defenses in the Big 12.
I look for the Longhorns to get their offense going this week against one of the worst defenses not only in the Big 12, but in the entire country. Texas A&M ranks 74th in the land in total defense (400.1 yards/game), including 114th against the pass (292.3 yards/game). They give up 28.8 points/game this year.
Contrary to popular belief, Texas hasn't been that bad offensively. They rank 47th in the FBS in total offense (405.4 yards/game) while scoring 29.2 points/game. I fully expect this team to top both of these averages Saturday against this soft Aggie defense.
There's no question that Texas A&M is going to score points. The Aggies are putting up a whopping 40.9 points/game, and they rank 6th in the country in total offense (512.4 yards/game). While they may not reach their season averages against a solid Texas defense, scoring 30-plus won't be a problem, which will be enough to get this final score OVER the number.
The last four meetings between these teams at College Station have all seen 61 or more combined points. They combined for 88, 68, 69 and 61 points in their last four meetings at Texas A&M, respectively. Texas A&M is a better offensive team and a worse defensive team than they were in any of those four years.
Texas is 29-10 to the OVER in their last 39 games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better. Texas A&M is 6-0 to the OVER in their last 6 games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game. The Longhorns are 26-12 to the OVER in their last 38 road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. The OVER is 25-9-1 in Aggies last 35 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
John Ryan
Texas at Texas A&M
Prediction: Texas
5* graded play on Texas as they take on the Texas A&M Aggies set to start at 8:00 PM ET. After 117 years of storied tradition representing the third longest rivalry, this will be the last time the Longhorns play the Aggies as the Aggies will move to the SEC Conference next season. The Longhorns already have a complete non-conference schedule so the there will not be any chance for this rivalry to be renewed for the foreseeable future. I am certain, however, that Texas will enjoy the 118th meeting between these two teams. The betting odds for this game opened at Texas A&M installed as a 7 point favorite and money has been pouring in the Aggies. The line is beginning to move to eight point level and I would not be surprised to see it move to 8 ? or possibly 9 points by game time. The reason is focused on the uncertainty regarding the Texas quarterback situation and who will get the start. McCoy will start in my opinion and this will prove to be a significant advantage for the Longhorn offense. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than seven points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. The simulator shows high probabilities exceeding 85% that Texas A&M will struggle on offense and gain between 6.0 and 6.5 net passing yards per play and will gain between 5.0 and 5.5 yards per play overall. In past games where Texas A&M has produced these measures of offensive output they have posted an 0-2 ATS mark this season, 1-5 ATS mark the past three seasons, and 5-20 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 6.0 and 6.5 net passing yards per game; when gaining between 5.0 and 5.5 yards per play in past games they have produced an 0-3 ATS mark this season, 1-7 ATS mark the past three seasons, and 16-28 ATS since 1992. Applying these projections to money line results shows that A&M is just 8-14 against the money line losing 23.2 units per on unit wagered when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards per attempt since 1992; 17-23 against the money line losing 23.7 units per on unit wagered when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play since 1992. The simulator shows a high probability exceeding 90% that Texas will gain between 150 and 200 rushing yards. IN past games where they have achieved this level of offensive output they have produced a 22-7 against the money line making 13.9 units when they rush for 150 to 200 yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 69-40 and has made 36 units per one unit wagered since 2000. Play on a road team using the money line with an excellent rushing defense allowing 100 or less rushing yards per game and after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game. Texas defense played extraordinarily well last week in their loss to Kansas State allowing just 39 rushing yards on 38 attempts and 83 passing yards on just nine completions in 18 passing attempts. The Texas rushing defense ranks 11th in the FBS allowing 94.9 rushing yards per game. Texas A&M running back Cyrus Gray has been downgraded to doubtful for this game. He has gained 1045 yards on 198 rushing attempts for a solid 5.3 yards per rush average. This is a huge loss for the Aggies and is magnified by the fact that their other elite running back Christine Michael is out for the season with a knee injury. I strongly believe that this simple fact is be glossed over and that too much focus is being placed on the Aggies passing attack. The Aggies have a solid balanced offensive attack that ranks 15th in the FBS gaining 294 passing yards per game and 18th gaining 219 rushing yards per game. However, the passing game as fed off the running game this season. I strongly believe that the Texas defensive front will shut down the ground game and translate the A&M offense into a one dimensional passing attack. The Texas secondary is vastly under rated and they have the coverage personnel to matchup very well in man situations. This allows Texas to bring pressure from differing angles and attack the A gap with some severe intensity that will create massive problems for A&M quarterback Tannehill.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Not sure yet if the Lions are good enough to beat the Packers outright, but we definitely like them plus the points here at Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day. Yes, Detroit is a miserable 0-7 SU/ATS on Turkey Day since 2004, but this is an entirely different outfit as they bring their best record into the holiday in years at 7-3 SU and over the last two seasons they are a perfect 8-0 ATS if they went Over in their previous two games.
Play on: Detroit
Matt Rivers
Comp play winner now to get the day started is to play the over in the Green Bay-Detroit game to get the festivities started.
Both teams have been playin' em high of late, as the Packers have sailed over the total in four in a row, while the Lions have also been playin' em high of late with overs in their last three.
For the season, both teams are 7-3 over the total in their ten games played. In the series, the over has come through in five of the last eight meetings.
The Lions are on an overall 16-8-2 over clip their last 26 games played, and this one sure has the makings of a very offensive affair to start your holiday off.
Packers and Lions do not disappoint, go over in the first of three NFL affairs for this Turkey Day.
5♦ OVER
Jim Feist
Dolphins vs Cowboys
Play: Over 44
It took a while but the Miami offense has learned to score some points behind QB Matt Moore (7 TDs, 5 INTs) and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, scoring 31, 20 and 35 the last three games. But the problem here is the defense, which is allowing 251 yards passing per game (25th) and faces a talented Dallas offense. QB Tony Romo (19 TDs, 7 INTs) has a slew of talented weapons in WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten and RB DeMarco Murray, No. 6 in the NFL with 277 yards passing per game. Dallas comes home from a big division win Sunday, 27-24 in OT, at Washington. The offense had 353 yards, 292 passing from Romo who had 3 TDs, no picks. The Cowboys are 19-9 over the total in their last 28 games and they should tear up this soft Miami secondary. Play the Cowboys/Dolphins Over the total.
Jack Jones
Texas/Texas A&M OVER 53
Odds makers have set the bar too low Thursday in a Big 12 game that should see enough offensive fireworks to climb OVER the number by game's end. The books have put too much stock in the Longhorns' last two games, which resulted in low-scoring outputs against two of the better defenses in the Big 12.
I look for the Longhorns to get their offense going this week against one of the worst defenses not only in the Big 12, but in the entire country. Texas A&M ranks 74th in the land in total defense (400.1 yards/game), including 114th against the pass (292.3 yards/game). They give up 28.8 points/game this year.
Contrary to popular belief, Texas hasn't been that bad offensively. They rank 47th in the FBS in total offense (405.4 yards/game) while scoring 29.2 points/game. I fully expect this team to top both of these averages Saturday against this soft Aggie defense.
There's no question that Texas A&M is going to score points. The Aggies are putting up a whopping 40.9 points/game, and they rank 6th in the country in total offense (512.4 yards/game). While they may not reach their season averages against a solid Texas defense, scoring 30-plus won't be a problem, which will be enough to get this final score OVER the number.
The last four meetings between these teams at College Station have all seen 61 or more combined points. They combined for 88, 68, 69 and 61 points in their last four meetings at Texas A&M, respectively. Texas A&M is a better offensive team and a worse defensive team than they were in any of those four years.
Texas is 29-10 to the OVER in their last 39 games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better. Texas A&M is 6-0 to the OVER in their last 6 games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game. The Longhorns are 26-12 to the OVER in their last 38 road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. The OVER is 25-9-1 in Aggies last 35 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.
John Ryan
Texas at Texas A&M
Prediction: Texas
5* graded play on Texas as they take on the Texas A&M Aggies set to start at 8:00 PM ET. After 117 years of storied tradition representing the third longest rivalry, this will be the last time the Longhorns play the Aggies as the Aggies will move to the SEC Conference next season. The Longhorns already have a complete non-conference schedule so the there will not be any chance for this rivalry to be renewed for the foreseeable future. I am certain, however, that Texas will enjoy the 118th meeting between these two teams. The betting odds for this game opened at Texas A&M installed as a 7 point favorite and money has been pouring in the Aggies. The line is beginning to move to eight point level and I would not be surprised to see it move to 8 ? or possibly 9 points by game time. The reason is focused on the uncertainty regarding the Texas quarterback situation and who will get the start. McCoy will start in my opinion and this will prove to be a significant advantage for the Longhorn offense. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than seven points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. The simulator shows high probabilities exceeding 85% that Texas A&M will struggle on offense and gain between 6.0 and 6.5 net passing yards per play and will gain between 5.0 and 5.5 yards per play overall. In past games where Texas A&M has produced these measures of offensive output they have posted an 0-2 ATS mark this season, 1-5 ATS mark the past three seasons, and 5-20 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 6.0 and 6.5 net passing yards per game; when gaining between 5.0 and 5.5 yards per play in past games they have produced an 0-3 ATS mark this season, 1-7 ATS mark the past three seasons, and 16-28 ATS since 1992. Applying these projections to money line results shows that A&M is just 8-14 against the money line losing 23.2 units per on unit wagered when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards per attempt since 1992; 17-23 against the money line losing 23.7 units per on unit wagered when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play since 1992. The simulator shows a high probability exceeding 90% that Texas will gain between 150 and 200 rushing yards. IN past games where they have achieved this level of offensive output they have produced a 22-7 against the money line making 13.9 units when they rush for 150 to 200 yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 69-40 and has made 36 units per one unit wagered since 2000. Play on a road team using the money line with an excellent rushing defense allowing 100 or less rushing yards per game and after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game. Texas defense played extraordinarily well last week in their loss to Kansas State allowing just 39 rushing yards on 38 attempts and 83 passing yards on just nine completions in 18 passing attempts. The Texas rushing defense ranks 11th in the FBS allowing 94.9 rushing yards per game. Texas A&M running back Cyrus Gray has been downgraded to doubtful for this game. He has gained 1045 yards on 198 rushing attempts for a solid 5.3 yards per rush average. This is a huge loss for the Aggies and is magnified by the fact that their other elite running back Christine Michael is out for the season with a knee injury. I strongly believe that this simple fact is be glossed over and that too much focus is being placed on the Aggies passing attack. The Aggies have a solid balanced offensive attack that ranks 15th in the FBS gaining 294 passing yards per game and 18th gaining 219 rushing yards per game. However, the passing game as fed off the running game this season. I strongly believe that the Texas defensive front will shut down the ground game and translate the A&M offense into a one dimensional passing attack. The Texas secondary is vastly under rated and they have the coverage personnel to matchup very well in man situations. This allows Texas to bring pressure from differing angles and attack the A gap with some severe intensity that will create massive problems for A&M quarterback Tannehill.
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