Sunday 8/17/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2025, 06:52 AM

Race of the Week: Sunday's Longacres Mile at Emerald Downs

August 13, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The 90th running of the Longacres Mile presented by 1/ST BET headlines the biggest date on the racing calendar annually in the Pacific Northwest. Emerald Downs hosts the 2-turn mile that's been won by such legendary jockeys as Bill Hartack, Johnny Longden, Willie Shoemaker and Laffit Pincay Jr. Five supporting stakes surround the Longacres Mile on the Sunday card, including the Washington Oaks and the Muskleshoot Derby.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to take advantage of the 1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promotion on Sunday at Emerald Downs for the late pick 4 (Races 8-11).

Field Depth:
Grade 3 winner and multiple Grade 1-placed MASEN has plenty of back class to tap. Multiple stakes winner CLOVISCONNECTION was runner-up in this race last year and local fixture SLEW'S TIZ WHIZ won the '22 Longacres Mile and has placed in this race twice since. APPREHEND is a Grade 3 winner in Canada, while MONEYSHOT is Canadian Grade 3-placed.

Pace:
ARROWTHEGREAT and WHAT A DUDE are expected to be forwardly placed from the inner-most posts, while several others have designs near the top: MASEN perhaps fastest of all, along with SEAS OF NORMANDY, FIFTY CINCO, CLOVISCONNECTION and widest-drawn APPREHEND could all turn up the heat. A solid finisher will have every chance if firing his best shot. APPREHEND has shown some versatility, which could come in handy.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-ARROWTHEGREAT: Del Mar raider for Dan Blacker didn't stack up in several graded stakes bids in SoCal, but his allowance form fits well with these while trying Emerald for the first time. Pairs with jockey Manuel Americano, who comes into the week second in the Emerald season standings. Mile distance form has been excellent, but 5-2 on the morning line feels a bit low.

#2-WHAT A DUDE: 3-time Longacres Mile-winning rider Juan Gutierrez looks to add to his 2005, 2007 and 2020 trophies. This 6-year-old has been in raging form since arriving from Turf Paradise in mid-May, rattling off 3 easy wins against starter allowance and allowance competition around 2 turns. Doesn't require the front, but inner-draw will force his hand to keep position with some early interest.

#3-MONEYSHOT: Local claiming sprint winner was no factor this winter-spring at Oaklawn and a non-threatening fourth in the 6-1/2 furlong Governor's Stakes prep behind Slew's Tiz Whiz. Should get pace to rally into, but it's not clear if he's better as a closing sprinter based on several prior route tries.

#4-SEAS OF NORMANDY: $10,000 claim at Oaklawn in March will be a big price in his second local start. Stop-and-go trip in local sprint allowance for this after 4 months on the bench. Like the second-off-layoff and sprint-to-route form cycle for a barn clicking 31% at the meet. But his best race, which he could be set to fire, doesn't look good enough.

#5-MASEN: Irish export and former Chad Brown trainee was a turf dynamo in 2022, winning the Grade 3 Poker and finishing third in the Grade 1 Fourstardave and second in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile. But a couple of long layoffs since then and a couple of barn changes landed the now 7-year-old at Hastings Park in Vancouver. He's shown sprint speed on the bullring in allowance company, wiring the field July 19 off just 2 weeks' rest. His Hastings pilot Kerron Khelawan is third at home in the standings, but has not ridden at Emerald Downs. Pace factor.

#6-FIFTY CINCO: Emerald Downs' 2025 leading trainer Jorge Rosales takes a big step in class with this gelding who won a $15,000 claimer 2 starts back when haltered by the new barn. Consistent claimer has been in the super in 9 of his last 10, but finds himself in much deeper waters having run 15 of 19 times for a claiming tag and never in a stakes.

#7-CLOVISCONNECTION: Last year's Longacres Mile pacesetter led all but the last jump when second by a head. All 6 starts since have been in sprints, so it will be up to 2025 Emerald Downs leading jockey Kevin Krigger to ration his ability. Trainer Blane Wright won the Longacres Mile in 2020 with Anothertwistafate and has managed this Cal-bred to a stellar 12-for-21 win mark. Clovisconnection won the Budweiser Stakes in June before a troubled start, middle-move and fade as the favorite in the Governor's Stakes. Expected strong pace doesn't help his distance cause.

#8-SLEW'S TIZ WHIZ: Emerald star has made all 27 starts locally, culminating in Sunday's fourth appearance in the Longacres Mile. The 7-year-old is lightly raced for his age, getting the fall and winter off each season due to the local schedule. Trainer Tom Wenzel also won this race in 2007 as well as Slew's Tiz Whiz's victory in 2022. He's on his typical allowance-Budweiser-Governor's prep path and can be expected to fire again after coming within three-quarters of a length of sweeping those 3 starts this year. Late-runner should come knocking in the lane.

#9-BEARINGS: Well-traveled 5-year-old has raced in New York, Kentucky, California, Arizona and New Mexico before bedding down at Emerald this season for the meet's second-leading trainer Justin Evans. The high-percentage barn managed a 16-1 runner-up with this guy in the Sunland Park Handicap and a 22-1 third-place finish in the Governor's Stakes locally. The mile trip has suited him well in the past, and his last rally showed he's not too far off of Slew's Tiz Whiz to totally dismiss.

#10-APPREHEND: Former Peter Miller trainee posted victories at Oaklawn and Santa Anita early in his career, but was sidelined a year and a half before resurrecting his career in Canada with trainer Barbara Heads. The Hastings-based gelding by Arrogate brings a 5-race winning streak into the Longacres Mile, including the Grade 3 Premier Stakes at home and the Century Mile on the road in July off a 9-month hiatus. He was flashy in his Edmonton road trip last out and scored in track-record time. Regular rider Amadeo Perez looks for a second Longacres Mile score, having success in 2013 with Herbie D and has had a lot of success with limited appearances at Emerald over the years. Major threat.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
SLEW'S TIZ WHIZ is 3-times already placed in this race, has 18 straight superfecta finishes on his ledger and gets a pace set-up to flatter his rallying style.

Best Longshot Contender:
BEARINGS at 15-1 morning line is both fair odds and attractive given his 22-1 try in the Governor's Stakes. He'll get speed to pass ... it's a matter of how many.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 exacta SLEW'S TIZ WHIZ over APPREHEND; $20 exacta SLEW'S TIZ WHIZ over BEARINGS; $20 exacta APPREHEND over SLEW'S TIZ WHIZ; $10 exacta APPREHEND over BEARINGS.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2025, 11:13 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Longacres Mile Pick 4 Hit & Split at Emd | Sun.

August 15, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Sunday’s Longacres Mile Day at Emerald Downs features six stakes races all proudly presented by 1/ST BET. The final four make up a late pick four sequence that’s boosted by a 1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promotion when you bet via 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. The 90th edition of the Longacres Mile will be Leg B of the sequence, surround by two-turn route stakes throughout the action.

Race 8: Emerald Distaff

#6 Aloha Breeze won this race by 11 lengths last year and looks to be in equal form coming into the title defense. She’s twice outsprinted this meet #3 Lapush, who won last year’s Washington Oaks on this card against then-fellow sophomores. The return to a 1-1/16 miles trip is the X-factor in the third matchup and I won’t be surprised if Lapush doesn’t benefit. #1 Smiling Lady is beautifully drawn for her speed and makes a highly notable rider change to Manuel Americano, who is absolutely dominant in local route races. She might put a scare into them at a price.

Race: Longacres Mile

The Mile form promises a fast pace and that’s good news for the late-running veteran #8 Slew’s Tiz Whiz. He’s a Longacres Mile fixture, winning this race in 2022 and finishing third each of the past two years. The 7-year-old was as good as ever in winning the Governor’s Stakes sprinting and takes a familiar prep path to the main event. #10 Apprehend has been gangbusters in Canada since returning from a year and a half on the bench. The former Peter Miller Oaklawn/SoCal charge has plenty of back class to tap into and a versatile running style. There are other reasonable options in this race (many with some early pace), but in terms of finishers, I will put my faith and greenbacks on this pair.

Race: Muckleshoot Derby

#2 Si That Tiger has won 5 of his last 6, but notably that loss came in his only route try and that’s the 1-1/16 miles task here. The local options don’t appeal at the distance, however, making Turf Paradise Derby winner #1 Bodi Zafa the principal opposition late in the game. Difficult to get creative beyond this pair.

Race: Washington Oaks

Even-running sprinters often stretch out first time with success and that’s the play with #8 Race a Roany at what should be a solid price after an 8-1 fourth in the Kent Stakes behind many of these. It’s difficult to separate that group from the Kent but the move from a single turn to two really changes the dynamics in the Oaks. Jockey Manuel Americano makes the difference; he’s 25% wins, 48% in the exacta and a $1.17 ROI for every $1 bet in Emerald Downs routes since the start of 2024. Those numbers juice to 31% wins, 50% exacta and $1.87 ROI for every $1 bet when looking at horses moving sprint to route.

Suggested Ticket:

3,6,1 with 8,10 with 2,1 with 8 = $6 for each 50-cent play

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2025, 07:32 AM

Brian W. Spencer: Del Mar Spot Plays | Sunday, August 17, 2025

August 17, 2025 | By Brian Spencer

Sunday's week-ender at Del Mar features the Solana Beach Stakes in Race 7 for Cal-bred turf mile fillies and mares. It's part of our trio of featured plays on the card.

Del Mar - Race 1

#9 Biggiebiggiebiggie: Mild tracking effort in the debut, but I think he'll be able to stretch his tactical pace to a mile with a good draw to find that first-jump spot.

#5 Conducted: He's another who offered only a mild kind of effort at first asking, but there is some upside today while likely not chasing anything like Brant this time around.

#3 Later Than Planned: Decent run from at on debut overseas, and it's tough to discount anything like this that this team sends out. Figure he'll be one of the ones.

Race Summary: Biggiebiggiebiggie might find a good spot right up on the splits while stretching out off an Ellis debut run. Would consider #7 Born to Rock in early multi-race plays, too.

Del Mar - Race 7

#10 Wink and a Grin: Think you can have a little bit of fun in this race, and this one has been a really honest finisher who now meets a group with a decent bit of forward and tactical speed. Could get the last run.

#1 Miso Phansy: She has always flirted with being a good one, and I think she's an obvious player today while dropping out of graded stakes company -- likely at something shorter than the 15/1 ML offering.

#6 Prancingthruparis: Her better stuff has kept her in the frame with some of these, and the move back to the grass gives her a little bit of upside today. Maybe. Just not a lot of enthusiasm either way for me on this one today.

Race Summary: Could easily talk me into going two deep with Wink and a Grin and Miso Phansy, but I think the former is going to offer a better price with a similar profile on running style.

Del Mar - Race 9

#6 Angelica Bay: Think she has come out of a couple of races that might be better than they look at first glance, and she may still have a move forward in her in this third start back. Part of me wants to lean on her pretty hard here.

#10 Willa T: Wouldn't be any surprise to see her bounce back to land this one, and I'm guessing the price will be at least a bit better than it was in the 6/5 dud when dropping in for a tag last out. Player.

#5 Caitlin Fever: She was decent enough in her two route races with better, and her comeback race wasn't all bad. Could build on that while stretching out.

Race Summary: Angelica Bay has a couple of names in her company lines that I like for the special weight level on the circuit, and she won't have to wake up a whole lot to land this on the drop.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2025, 07:32 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 17, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Northfield Park begins the week with a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)

1-Lake Charles (3-1)-The veteran is usually in the mix at the wire versus this kind. Last week, was hung into a 53.4 opening half and faded badly later in the mile. Does good work racing on the point or close to it and should be there tonight without burning much gas. Looks like a main player and will likely be bet down.
5-Rock With JK (6-1)-Ships in from ScD and should fit. Has won 4 of 6 at Nfld and has enough gate speed to get a close-up seat. Could offer a square price and has a 151 mark at Nfld.
6-Mufferraw Joe (4-1)-Fired hard off the gate 2 back and landed on the point into a 26.2 opening quarter. Faded down the lane to lose by <1 length against this kind. Dan Noble could try the same script and could be the best with an efficient opening quarter.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)

2-Liteningonthebeach (3/2)-Has burned money as an odds-on chalk in the last 2 races and will be bet again. Fits with this field and is difficult to leave off the ticket. Draw inside and may have met a beatable field but can't fully trust.
7-Humble A (4-1)-This will be the 1st start since 6-9, and the qualifier at ScD on 8-12 was fine. Gets the services of Brett Miller and he hasn't steered recently, except in the qualifier. Showed good speed at Yonkers and will take a swing is ready for its Nfld debut. Could surprise if close enough to leader at the top of the lane.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)

3-Heerz Popeye (2-1)-Returns to Nfld after making a couple of starts on the Fair circuit. Does good work at Nfld
(12-5-2-1) and won the last time in at this level. Has enough gate speed to get on the engine when the wings fold and not look back.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)

4-Atlas Hanover (2-1)-Started from post 8 and was used off the gate in the 1st race in over a month. Faded to finish 8th in a needed start and did take some money. This will be the 2nd start in the Jason McGinnis barn, and he owns as well after a 7-4 claim. Merriman gets the call and will expect an improved effort.
7-Shrimp And Grits (15-1)-Makes the 1st start for the Loney barn and she won her only race following a claim. Doesn't claim often and this looks like a family purchase and Brett Miller gets the call. Has some gate speed and doesn't face a deep group, so will use and hope the morning line price holds up.

$2 Late Pick 4

1,5,6/2,7/3/4,7
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2025, 07:33 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #1

#9 Biggiebiggiebiggie	Mild tracking effort in the debut, but I think he'll be able to stretch his tactical pace to a mile with a good draw to find that first-jump spot.
#5 Conducted	He's another who offered only a mild kind of effort at first asking, but there is some upside today while likely not chasing anything like Brant this time around.
#3 Later Than Planned	Decent run from at on debut overseas, and it's tough to discount anything like this that this team sends out. Figure he'll be one of the ones.
Race Summary	Biggiebiggiebiggie might find a good spot right up on the splits while stretching out off an Ellis debut run. Would consider #7 Born to Rock in early multi-race plays, too.

Del Mar - Race #7

#10 Wink and a Grin	Think you can have a little bit of fun in this race, and this one has been a really honest finisher who now meets a group with a decent bit of forward and tactical speed. Could get the last run.
#1 Miso Phansy	She has always flirted with being a good one, and I think she's an obvious player today while dropping out of graded stakes company -- likely at something shorter than the 15/1 ML offering.
#6 Prancingthruparis	Her better stuff has kept her in the frame with some of these, and the move back to the grass gives her a little bit of upside today. Maybe. Just not a lot of enthusiasm either way for me on this one today.
Race Summary	Could easily talk me into going two deep with Wink and a Grin and Miso Phansy, but I think the former is going to offer a better price with a similar profile on running style.

Del Mar - Race #9

#6 Angelica Bay	Think she has come out of a couple of races that might be better than they look at first glance, and she may still have a move forward in her in this third start back. Part of me wants to lean on her pretty hard here.
#10 Willa T	Wouldn't be any surprise to see her bounce back to land this one, and I'm guessing the price will be at least a bit better than it was in the 6/5 dud when dropping in for a tag last out. Player.
#5 Caitlin Fever	She was decent enough in her two route races with better, and her comeback race wasn't all bad. Could build on that while stretching out.
Race Summary	Angelica Bay has a couple of names in her company lines that I like for the special weight level on the circuit, and she won't have to wake up a whole lot to land this on the drop.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2025, 07:34 AM

Del Mar Tip Sheet - August 17

Aug. 16, 2025

Race #1
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 05:00 PM ET
$80,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	7	Born to Rock	K Kimura
Place	3-1	5	Conducted	H I Berrios
Show	5-1	9	Biggiebiggiebiggie	A Fresu
Wild card	4-1	4	Sterling Sea	J J Hernandez
Alternate 1	7-2	3	Later Than Planned	U Rispoli
Alternate 2	15-1	6	Day Man	M Demuro

Exacta 7-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX
Trifecta 5/7/9 BOX, 4/5/9 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:31 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	1	Cherry Cider	D Van Dyke
Place	7-5	3	Explora	J J Hernandez
Show	3-1	5	Revera	A Fresu
Wild card	5-1	2	Total Val	M Demuro
Alternate 1	8-1	6	Latte Luv	E A Maldonado
Alternate 2	12-1	4	Cosmo Friday	A Ayuso

Exacta 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
Race #3
Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 06:02 PM ET
Best Bet #6 SPYCATCHER
$81,000.00

Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	4-1	6	Spycatcher	A Lezcano
Place	3-1	4	Crosby Beach	A Ayuso
Show	4-1	2	Hotrocket	U Rispoli
Wild card	7-2	5	Ah Jeez	K Frey
Alternate 1	15-1	1	The Rabbi	J Valdivia Jr.
Alternate 2	12-1	8	Rimprotector	K Kimura

Exacta 6-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:33 PM ET
Best Bet #1 JALISCO
$30,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Claiming

Win	5-2	1	Jalisco	A Fresu
Place	7-2	2	Wave With Envy	A Ayuso
Show	4-1	12	Mr. Pippins	A Cedillo
Wild card	4-1	5	Closing Time	A Lezcano
Alternate 1	6-1	6	Tinas Princess	K Kimura
Alternate 2	12-1	7	Desert Kat	D A Herrera

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-12 BOX, 12-5 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/12 BOX, 2/5/12 BOX
Race #5
Turf 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:03 PM ET
$43,000.00

Race 5 Claiming

Win	4-1	11	Hot Box	E Payeras
Place	7-2	6	Betterdaysrcoming	H I Berrios
Show	8-1	7	Whatmakessammyrun	A Fresu
Wild card	6-1	1	Yogi Boy	K Kimura
Alternate 1	6-1	5	Grazed	U Rispoli
Alternate 2	5-1	4	Zoffarelli	J J Hernandez

Exacta 11-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
Trifecta 6/7/11 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
Race #6
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:33 PM ET
Best Bet #8 PETITE ANGE
$26,000.00

Race 6 Claiming

Win	2-1	8	Petite Ange	T Baze
Place	5-2	7	Disposition	R Silvera
Show	5-1	4	Recycleyourheart	R Gonzalez
Wild card	6-1	6	Chasing Kat	D A Herrera
Alternate 1	5-1	2	Matina	A Ayuso
Alternate 2	20-1	3	Sugar Brown	H R Lopez

Exacta 8-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
Trifecta 4/7/8 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
Race #7
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 08:03 PM ET
$150,000.00

Race 7 Stakes

Win	4-1	6	Prancingthruparis	A Ayuso
Place	5-2	7	Grand Slam Smile	W Antongeorgi III
Show	7-2	3	Moments Pleasure	J J Hernandez
Wild card	5-1	8	Sneaker	K Kimura
Alternate 1	10-1	11	Cornelia Fort	A Fresu
Alternate 2	15-1	1	Miso Phansy	H I Berrios

Exacta 6-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
Trifecta 3/6/7 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX
Race #8
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:33 PM ET
$36,000.00

Race 8 Claiming

Win	4-1	6	Doo Wop Don	D A Herrera
Place	6-1	9	Nation	K Frey
Show	3-1	7	El Diablo Rojo	J J Hernandez
Wild card	8-1	2	My Man Bags	A Aguilar
Alternate 1	5-1	8	Gypsy Tears	T Baze
Alternate 2	5-1	10	Known Idea	D Cohen

Exacta 6-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
Trifecta 6/7/9 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX
Race #9
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 09:03 PM ET
$44,000.00

Race 9 Maiden Claiming

Win	7-2	5	Caitlin Fever	J J Hernandez
Place	4-1	10	Willa T	A Fresu
Show	6-1	6	Angelica Bay	S Carmona
Wild card	6-1	1	Rehearsal	U Rispoli
Alternate 1	5-1	4	Icons Only	K Kimura
Alternate 2	20-1	9	Thea	M E Smith

Exacta 5-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
Trifecta 5/6/10 BOX, 1/6/10 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2025, 07:34 AM

Ellis Park Tip Sheet - August 17

Aug. 16, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 12:50 PM ET
$37,500.00

Race 1 Maiden Claiming

Win	8-5	2	Compressed	K J Asmussen
Place	8-1	1	Camden Hills	J A Torres
Show	7-2	3	Dr Fenn	E Morales
Wild card	9-2	4	Thunder Murphy	J Graham
Alternate 1	15-1	6	Cosmic Collission	M Gutierrez
Alternate 2	6-1	7	Election Night	R Bejarano

Exacta 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:19 PM ET
Best Bet #1 MINK STOLE
$35,000.00

Race 2 Claiming

Win	9-2	1	Mink Stole	G Saez
Place	4-1	8	Lois Courage	A Jimenez
Show	8-1	7	St. Albans Raid	A Beschizza
Wild card	6-1	4	Indescriptable	M Gutierrez
Alternate 1	7-2	3	Animal Fries	E Morales
Alternate 2	3-1	6	Whats Her Number	C Barbosa

Exacta 1-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/7/8 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 01:48 PM ET
$42,500.00

Race 3 Starter Allowance

Win	7-2	5	Evening News	C A Torres
Place	8-5	3	National Eclipse	F Geroux
Show	5-1	1	Johnson	T Gaffalione
Wild card	4-1	2	Overstatement	E Morales
Alternate 1	10-1	6	Schiftys Haloid	A Concepcion
Alternate 2	9-2	4	Mo Hope	B J Hernandez Jr.

Exacta 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/5 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
Race #4
Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 02:16 PM ET
Best Bet #7 WRITE OFF JERRY
$102,000.00

Race 4 Allowance

Win	2-1	7	Write Off Jerry	T Gaffalione
Place	5-2	6	Tickled Quist	J A Torres
Show	10-1	2	Elegant Trip	A Concepcion
Wild card	10-1	4	Azoi	G Saez
Alternate 1	12-1	5	Baltimore Heart	F Geroux
Alternate 2	4-1	3	Kid Cairo	C A Torres

Exacta 7-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/6/7 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:44 PM ET
$38,750.00

Race 5 Claiming

Win	8-1	4	Espionage	J Elliott
Place	7-2	5	Jackman	E Asmussen
Show	2-1	6	W W Candy	M Gutierrez
Wild card	10-1	8	Chryso Alogo	J A Torres
Alternate 1	5-1	3	M Bs Munning	R Bejarano
Alternate 2	8-1	2	Guanare	C A Torres

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/6 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX
Race #6
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 03:12 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	5	Fulleffort	J A Torres
Place	4-1	12	Cederberg	T Gaffalione
Show	10-1	1	Swamp King	A Concepcion
Wild card	5-2	13	My World	F Geroux
Alternate 1	8-1	7	Sir Vincent	G Saez
Alternate 2	5-1	9	Your Wildest Dream	B J Hernandez Jr.

Exacta 5-12 BOX, 12-1 BOX, 1-13 BOX
Trifecta 1/5/12 BOX, 1/12/13 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:42 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 7 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	1	Noroomformischief	T Gaffalione
Place	7-2	3	Love Divine	K J Asmussen
Show	10-1	2	Cardiff Reef	S Doyle
Wild card	10-1	12	Lady Law	E Morales
Alternate 1	10-1	10	Dancewhenyoucan	J R Leparoux
Alternate 2	12-1	4	Miss Milky Way	I Moncada

Exacta 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-12 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/12 BOX
Race #8
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:12 PM ET
Best Bet #4 NIKI NINE DOORS
$104,000.00

Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	9-5	4	Niki Nine Doors	T Gaffalione
Place	2-1	5	Dala	W A Rodriguez
Show	5-1	9	Sultry Lass	S Camacho Jr.
Wild card	12-1	3	Hideki	M Gutierrez
Alternate 1	10-1	2	Twirl Around	E Morales
Alternate 2	10-1	8	Jill Jitterbug	R Bejarano

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX
Race #9
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:42 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 9 Maiden Special Weight

Win	5-2	1	Semper Primus	W A Rodriguez
Place	6-1	4	Atlal	F Geroux
Show	5-1	11	Divine Justice	T Gaffalione
Wild card	4-1	14	Tre Italiani	F Geroux
Alternate 1	8-1	13	Barker	T Gaffalione
Alternate 2	8-1	2	Stomp	J A Torres

Exacta 1-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX, 11-14 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/11 BOX, 4/11/14 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2025, 07:35 AM

Saratoga Tip Sheet - August 17

Aug. 16, 2025

Race #1
Inner turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 01:10 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	4	Abundant Love	J R Velazquez
Place	9-2	3	Dimensionality	R Santana Jr.
Show	7-5	7	Ready for Candy	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	1-1	8	Endorse	Rider TBA
Alternate 1	8-1	6	Pemaquid	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	6-1	2	Inesperee	J Rosario

Exacta 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/7 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:45 PM ET
$75,000.00

Race 2 Starter Allowance

Win	8-5	5	Daisy Duke	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	7-2	1	Fortuna Mia	R Santana Jr.
Show	5-2	4	Moon Cache	J L Ortiz
Wild card	9-2	6	Kadena	D Davis
Alternate 1	8-1	3	Looks First	K Carmouche
Alternate 2	10-1	2	Alcala	L Saez

Exacta 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
Race #3
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:20 PM ET
$115,000.00

Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	2-5	3	Kairyu	F Prat
Place	6-1	6	Sol Hope	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	4-1	5	Obstreperous	R Santana Jr.
Wild card	12-1	2	Caras Time	D Davis
Alternate 1	5-2	7	Proud Foot	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	7-5	8	Everyoneloveslinda	Rider TBA

Exacta 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
Trifecta 3/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 1 3/16 Miles - Post Time: 02:55 PM ET
Best Bet #1 VALENTINIAN
$110,000.00

Race 4 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	7-5	1	Valentinian	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	9-2	2	Frizzante	K Carmouche
Show	6-1	6	Trident Hit	J L Ortiz
Wild card	8-1	5	Whittington Park	J Lezcano
Alternate 1	3-1	4	New Magic	F Prat
Alternate 2	5-1	3	Wise Up	M Franco

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:30 PM ET
$75,000.00

Race 5 Starter Allowance

Win	4-1	5	Three Bs	J L Ortiz
Place	2-1	2	Trust Issues	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	5-2	1A	Zippy Mark	K Carmouche
Wild card	10-1	3	Roar Ready	R Santana Jr.
Alternate 1	5-2	1	Plausible Denile	J Alvarado
Alternate 2	9-2	7	Shoot the Nickel	L Saez

Exacta 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
Race #6
Inner turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 04:06 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Special Weight

Win	2-1	4	Teleport	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	8-5	3	Guitarist	F Prat
Show	8-1	2	Scope	J R Velazquez
Wild card	8-1	7	Woodster	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	5-2	9	Tartabull	Rider TBA
Alternate 2	2-1	8	Stimulate	J Alvarado

Exacta 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:39 PM ET
Best Bet #6 SPIRITUAL LADY
$40,000.00

Race 7 Starter Allowance

Win	2-1	6	Spiritual Lady	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	3-1	1	Irish Jackson	F Prat
Show	7-2	3	Problematica	J L Ortiz
Wild card	5-2	7	Jacksons Dixie	D Davis
Alternate 1	20-1	5	Ghostly Girl	A S Worrie
Alternate 2	15-1	2	Equus	R Santana Jr.

Exacta 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/6 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
Race #8
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:12 PM ET
$150,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	8-5	4	Cy Fair	J R Velazquez
Place	9-2	6	Sacred Goddess	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	6-1	3	Snow Face Princess	F Prat
Wild card	7-2	2	My Sweetheart	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	8-1	5	Gerrards Cross	S Leon
Alternate 2	8-1	7	Shouldve	J Rosario

Exacta 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
Race #9
Inner turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 05:45 PM ET
$95,000.00

Race 9 Allowance

Win	5-2	2	Annexperience	J L Ortiz
Place	3-1	5	Real Savvy	F Prat
Show	5-1	11	Miztertonic	J Rosario
Wild card	4-1	10	Sounds Like a Plan	R Santana Jr.
Alternate 1	2-1	15	Hey Toby	Rider TBA
Alternate 2	8-1	1	Zapruder	I Ortiz Jr.

Exacta 2-5 BOX, 5-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX
Trifecta 2/5/11 BOX, 5/10/11 BOX
Race #10
Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:18 PM ET
Best Bet #10 SECURED LENDER
$47,000.00

Race 10 Maiden Claiming

Win	7-5	10	Secured Lender	F Prat
Place	15-1	1	Araucano	L Saez
Show	7-2	7	Volt	D Davis
Wild card	15-1	4	Senor Poncho	M Franco
Alternate 1	8-1	3	Sergeant Capps	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	12-1	5	No Merlot	K Carmouche

Exacta 10-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/7/10 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2025, 07:36 AM

Saratoga Hotlist - August 17

Aug. 16, 2025

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [Md Sp Wt, 1 1/8 mi TURF] – (3) Dimensionality (C) was bet down from 15-1 to 11-1, had to steady in the first turn, and finished third going farther. (7) Ready for Candy changes to a New York barn for her 2025 debut after racing at Woodbine. She is graded stakes placed as a maiden and stakes placed two other times. (4) Abundant Love had the best race of her career last month when she ran second going a longer distance. (2) Inesperee was third following a layoff but then last time got to the lead and was eased in the same race as the third choice.
2^nd race [Alw 50000s, 6F] – (1) Fortuna Mia was claimed from Linda Rice for $50,000 from a victory as the favorite in her first try in a claimer. (5) Daisy Duke finished second in her last two races in starter allowances at Churchill Downs and then Saratoga. (4) Moon Cache was a winner when last seen in a claiming race and was taken. Since then she ran well in four stakes on the Maryland circuit. (6) Kadena finished second behind the top choice two weeks ago and was claimed by Rice.
5^th race [Alw 50000s, 6 ? F] – (1A) Zippy Mark (B) got off to a poor start and was able to get a third-place finish. (5) Three B’s was claimed from his last two races with a win at Saratoga nine days ago when Linda Rice claimed him back. (7) Shoot the Nickel returns from a May layoff when he hit the board in five starter allowance races. (2) Trust Issues was a winner in June at Churchill when he was claimed for $50,000 and moved up to starter allowances with a second last time behind the Hot List horse.
7^th race [Alw 12500s, 6 ? F] – (6) Spiritual Lady won her last two races moving from a $12,500 claimer when she was taken to a higher restricted starter allowance. (3) Problematica won a $20,000 claimer at Churchill in June after getting claimed by Linda Rice and then moved up to starter allowances with a second last month after setting the pace. (7) Jackson’s Dixie was claimed for $25,000 in June. (1) Irish Jackson was claimed from a narrow loss in June for $12,500 and then was third in a NY-bred allowance.
Best bets: Zippy Mark (5^th), Spiritual Lady (7^th). Best value: Dimensionality (1^st); Fortuna Mia (2^nd).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(3)	Dimensionality	C on 7/18	1	Took late money, steadied, and finished third.
(1A)	Zippy Mark	B on 7/23	5	Finished third after a poor start.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2025, 07:36 AM

Del Mar Hotlist - August 17

Aug. 16, 2025

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (4) Sterling Sea had a rough trip in his debut and switches to Hernandez here. (5) Conducted may like turf. (9) Biggiebiggiebiggie ran into trouble in his debut and should be a main threat here. (3) Later Than Planned is worth a look here. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-9. Doubles: 3-4-5-9 with 1-2-3.
2nd race – (1) Cherry Cider was second in her debut and should graduate here, (2) Total Val has put in some promising works for this. (3) Explora has been working bullets for her debut. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3.
5th race – (6) Betterdwayscoming drops to what should be a winning level. (4) Zoffarelli could take a step forward in his second try off the layoff. (1) Yogi Boy will be a main contender from the rail. (5) Grazed should welcome a return to turf. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-6.
7th race – (3) Moment’s Pleasure gets back to her favorite distance and may prevail. (7) Grand Slam Smile could be tough to catch here. (8) Sneaker has a nice turn of foot. (1) Miso Phansy will welcome a return to state-bred company. Betting strategy: 3to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-8.
9th race – (1) Rehearsal may wake up in a claimer. (5) Caitlin Fever is also worth a look in a claimer. (7) Storm Lady fits in with this group. (9) Thea will be dangerous on her best try. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-7-9.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2025, 07:45 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 3	Leg 3 of the All Turf Pick 3
Optional Claiming $50,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 95 • Purse: $104,000 • Post: 3:12P
ELP - R8 - (RAIL AT 10 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERSOF $34,600 ON THE TURF SINCE JUNE 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. $23,400 ON THE TURF SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THETURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE AND ONE HALF FURLONGS.)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * NIKI NINE DOORS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. DALA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. HIDEKI: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SULTRY LASS: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at lea st 120 lbs. BIRDIE ROSE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
4	NIKI NINE DOORS	9/5	4/1
5	DALA	2/1	7/1
3	HIDEKI	12/1	8/1
9	SULTRY LASS	5/1	9/1
6	BIRDIE ROSE	30/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SECRET STATEMENT	1	15/1	Front-runner	92	94	77.5	77.5	64.0
6	BIRDIE ROSE	6	30/1	Front-runner	92	89	76.5	71.1	55.6
4	NIKI NINE DOORS	4	9/5	Stalker	96	93	88.4	94.2	89.2
5	DALA	5	2/1	Stalker	88	90	73.0	84.6	77.6
3	HIDEKI	3	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	89	75.8	87.2	78.2
8	JILL JITTERBUG	8	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	95	89	64.5	81.7	74.2
9	SULTRY LASS	9	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	96	95	61.0	81.7	73.2
2	TWIRL AROUND	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	93	89	96.5	81.9	72.9
7	CURRENT CLIMATE	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	94	90	37.9	67.3	54.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2025, 07:46 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 5	Pick 3 (5-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Quiniela / Superfecta / Daily Double 5-6
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 40 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 4:30P
FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 116 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CARMEN B is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CARMEN B: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equiba se Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PALAZZETA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	CARMEN B	2/1	9/5
2	PALAZZETA	7/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CARMEN B	1	2/1	Front-runner	40	38	42.7	36.0	33.0
2	PALAZZETA	2	7/2	Stalker	40	33	36.5	30.8	26.8
8	ALWAYS SKULL	8	10/1	Trailer	0	0	24.6	19.0	12.0
7	PURA BACHATA	7	10/1	Trailer	41	35	22.1	25.9	20.4

Unknown Running Style: PERLA ROJA (10/1) [Jockey: Pastrana Engel - Trainer: Escobar Gilberto], CONSISTENCIA (3/1) [Jockey: Diaz Juan C - Trainer: Morales Ramon], ADORABLE STARLING (9/2) [Jockey: Cruz Ismael - Trainer: Lisboa Jason], ELENITA E. C. (10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2025, 07:46 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 91

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 17 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 17 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 HIDDEN PROFIT 8/1
# 5 SARGE'S SERMON 10/1
# 2 ANGEL'S MAGIC 3/1

I think HIDDEN PROFIT is a very good selection especially at such a decent 8/1. Will most likely compete soundly in the early speed battle which bodes well with this group of horses in this race. Has performed soundly recently in route races, posting a nifty 83 avg speed rating. ANGEL'S MAGIC - Is a definite contender - given the 95 Equibase speed fig from his most recent race. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the most favorable class figures of this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2025, 07:46 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #7 - Post: 9:30pm - Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 62

Rating:

#5 SPARKLEINYOUREYE (ML=6/1)
#3 R SPECIAL (ML=2/1)

SPARKLEINYOUREYE - Has discovered a great spot today. R SPECIAL - This rider/handler duo has been producing a high win pct, right around 50. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after her last outing, it generally means she's fit. This horse has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 27 to 42 to 62 in a row. Faced tougher last time out at Charles Town. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this one on my list of top contenders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 ZEN NATION (ML=9/5), #2 SUPERMODEL (ML=4/1), #7 MACHEN MAYHEM (ML=8/1),

ZEN NATION - When checking today's class rating, she will have to record a much better speed rating than last out to be competitive in this dirt sprint. SUPERMODEL - Will be tough for this entrant to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the possibly overvalued contestants list. MACHEN MAYHEM - No good results for this vulnerable equine in a sprint race over the last couple months tells me that this mare is in a formidable situation

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #5 SPARKLEINYOUREYE on the nose if you can get odds of 8/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None