11-27-11

[timbob]

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[timbob]

Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 40-24 +40.80%

3% CINCINNATI –7 No higher than -7
3% DENVER +6
3% CAROLINA/INDIANAPOLIS OVER 45 No higher than 47


ST LOUIS –2.5 Arizona 40

Arizona qualifies in a road underdog situation, which is 151-83-4. Numbers favor the Rams by two points and predict about 40 points. Kevin Kolb is likely to get the start in this game. Both teams have numerous injuries and are missing key personnel. Over the last four games the Rams have played well enough they would qualify in some fundamental rushing situations based on those last few games. With the injuries, both teams being bad enough they are tough to rely on and the situations going both ways depending on how far back we look, this is a good game for me to pass on. ST LOUIS 23 ARIZONA 20

NY JETS –9.5 Buffalo 42

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Jets by just 5.5 points and predict about 41 points. Those numbers do not take into account the fact Buffalo will be without RB Fred Jackson, WR Donald Jones, CB Terrence McGee, and S George Wilson. The good news for the Bills is some of their rookies have played decent, which may help them in the future but has not helped them recently. I don’t want any part of the Bills. They are playing horribly right now. Buffalo was destroyed here last year in the last game of the season, 38-7, and they have been beaten badly at home by the Jets in the two games Chan Gailey has coached against the Jets. Prior to last year, Buffalo had been pretty competitive here in NY by winning three of the previous six games, with all three losses coming by four or less points. I’m not about to guess when the Bills will turn it back around this year, especially with so many injuries. The Jets aren’t playing well but they have matched up well against Gailey’s teams and are at home badly in need of a win as well. NY JETS 23 BUFFALO 17

CINCINNATI –7 Cleveland 37.5

Cincinnati qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 191-101-13, 506-321-22 and 550-399-23. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 8.5 points and predict about 42 points. Cleveland has been pathetic this year on offense and not fared well when they have gone on the road and faced a good team. They lost at home earlier this year to Cincinnati by 10, lost at Oakland by seven, lost at SF by ten and lost at Houston by 18 points. The only game they have scored more than 17 points this year was at Indianapolis, who hasn’t won a game this year. Cincinnati can score points and other than their games against good defensive teams like San Francisco and Pittsburgh, they have scored at least 22 points in every game. Knowing Cleveland will struggle just to get to 17 points and Cincinnati is likely to score at least 23-24 points, Cincinnati stands an excellent chance, along with line value and solid situations in their favor. Lone concern here is Cincinnati is just 2-12 ATS as a home favorite their last 14 tries (1-1 this year). CINCINNATI 30 CLEVELAND 13

Houston –6.5 JACKSONVILLE 37

Houston nearly qualifies in a very strong fundamental rushing situation, which is 191-101-13. Jacksonville qualifies in my turnover table, which is 436-286-18. Numbers favor Houston by 8.5 points and predict about 37 points. Matt Leinart will get the start in place of Matt Schaub, who was placed on IR this week. Jacksonville has been good at home this year but they have suffered key defensive injuries the last few weeks and that may be catching up to them as they allowed an anemic Cleveland offense to move the ball on them. Houston will likely get WR Andre Johnson back this week to help counter some of the loss of Schaub. Houston has lost four straight games here in Jacksonville. Houston has played well on the road against poor competition this year, winning by 10 at Miami, by 34 at Tennessee and by 28 at Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, Jacksonville did upset Baltimore at home but the Ravens have not played well on the road this year. At home against good competition, they have lost by 13 to New Orleans and by 10 to Cincinnati. Obviously Leinart is the wild card here but Houston should be able to move the ball on the ground and their defense has been so good and should be able to shut down a very bad Jacksonville offense. HOUSTON 24 JACKSONVILLE 13

Carolina –3.5 INDIANAPOLIS 45

Indianapolis qualifies in a winless situation, which is 107-57-7 (just 3-7 this year playing on these same Colts many times) and a 26-6-1 situation that plays on winless teams coming off their bye week, which Indianapolis is doing this week. Numbers favor Carolina by just one point and predict about 47 points. Just about every week I’ve had situations that applied to the Colts and I’ve avoided playing on them because I’m not about to guess when they may get the cover. If there was ever a game they are going to cover and maybe win, this is the game. But, I’ll avoid them again because, again, I’m not about to guess when they get that cover and/or win. I do, however, like their chances to score in this game and that gives this game an excellent chance to go over the total. The Colts have not scored many points as of late. They have only totaled 27 points in their last four games combined. But, the fact they have scored just three and seven points the last two weeks actually sets them up in a situation that plays to the over. When teams fail to score more than seven points in back to back games, like the Colts have failed to do the last two games, they are 102-69-6 to the over. If the opponent allowed more than 20 points in their previous game, it is 43-22-2 to the over, including 24-10-1 over if our anemic offensive team is at home and 7-0-0 if the total is higher than 41. None of those numbers alone are strong to play this game over the total but the predicted number is 47 points so the number is fair. In addition, Carolina has allowed 28 points at Arizona, 34 at Chicago, 31 at Atlanta and 49 at Detroit so Indy has every chance in the world to score some points here. Indy’s offense is terrible but they still have some playmakers at the skill positions and they have played some very good defenses this year, which have helped to contribute to their futility. When they have played below average pass defenses, they have scored some points (17 at Tampa Bay, 24 at home against KC and 17 at Cincinnati). They’ve allowed at least 23 points in every game but their last game against the anemic offense of Jacksonville. CAROLINA 28 INDIANAPOLIS 27

TENNESSEE –3.5 Tampa Bay 43

Tampa Bay qualifies in a road situation, which is 151-83-4. Numbers, however, favor Tennessee by 8.5 points and predict about 44 points. TB is now 12-3 ATS in last 15 games as road dogs under Raheem Morris (not counting the neutral site games in London). TB has struggled as of late but they have played a brutal schedule against teams like GB, Houston, New Orleans twice, Chicago and San Francisco. Meanwhile, Tennessee has struggled against tough competition as well but played pretty well against inferior opponents like Carolina, Indianapolis and Cleveland, winning all of those games by at least 17 points. So, the situations and history point towards TB but the line value points towards Tennessee. This game could be a little higher scoring than “they” think. Pass for me. TENNESSEE 24 TAMPA BAY 21


ATLANTA –9.5 Minnesota 44

The Vikings qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 164-87-8, including 6-1 this year but that situation is assuming Adrian Peterson is playing this week but Peterson is likely not going to suit up this week. Numbers favor Atlanta by 11 points (and those numbers assume Peterson plays) and predict about 40 points. The Vikings have really struggled on the road this year losing by seven at SD, by five at KC, by 29 at Chicago and by 38 at Green Bay. They haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of those games. Their lone win was at Carolina by three, 24-21. Meanwhile, Atlanta has taken care of business at home this year against poor teams, winning by 14 over Carolina and defeating Tennessee last week by six, although they led 23-3 before letting the Titans back in the game. The Vikings are really banged up. In addition to being without Peterson, they are likely to miss their rookie TE Kyle Rudolph as well as their safety Husain Abdullah. Atlanta will more than likely be without their best secondary player in Brent Grimes and also without Kelvin Hayden. If Atlanta was healthy and the situation didn’t exist for Minnesota, even though without Peterson it’s basically non-existent, I would consider looking at Atlanta. Instead, I will just lean their way. ATLANTA 27 MINNESOTA 14

OAKLAND –4 Chicago 41

Chicago qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 65-29-6 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Oakland by .5 point and predict about 44 points. Those numbers assume Cutler plays but Cutler is lost for the rest of the regular season most likely will return if the Bears can make the playoffs. Caleb Hanie starts for Cutler and it’s anybody’s guess how he will do. He certainly performed well in the NFC Championship game last year although he did throw two interceptions, including one costly one which was returned for a touchdown. Without Cutler, this number is probably closer to 3.5 or so but the Raiders are just too banged up for me to play them. They are missing most of their key receivers and Richard Seymour is also questionable. Lack of line value and too many injuries will keep me on the sideline. OAKLAND 24 CHICAGO 20

SEATTLE –3.5 Washington 37

Washington qualifies in my turnover table, which is 436-286-18. Seattle, if favored by four or more points would qualify in a letdown situation, which is 117-42-3, and plays against the Seahawks here. Numbers favor Seattle by five points and predict about 37 points. Washington gets back Santana Moss this week. Moss, along with Rex Grossman, who isn’t great but I believe gives the Redskins their best chance to win a game and a fairly healthy offensive line, finally got back on track last week with a competitive game at home against Dallas. The Redskins were competitive earlier in the year when they were healthy, losing by two at Dallas (a game we had) and winning by seven at St. Louis. Meanwhile, Seattle is known to be very tough at home, which they are, but their largest home win of the season has been by five points over Baltimore. They also defeated Arizona by three points and lost to the better teams they played – Atlanta and Cincinnati. Both teams offenses and defenses are similar and with the points and the situations in their favor, I will lean with Washington. SEATTLE 20 WASHINGTON 17

New England –3.5 PHILADELPHIA 49.5

Philadelphia qualifies in a home momentum underdog role, which is 48-17-1. Interesting the last time this system popped, we used it with Pittsburgh over New England a few weeks ago. The Eagles also qualify in a home underdog fundamental rushing situation, which is 73-27-3 and another fundamental rushing situation, which is 683-533-36 although they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor Philadelphia by three points and predict about 50 points. Vick is unlikely to play and it looks like Vince Young will get the start at quarterback again this week. Young will probably have to do it without WR Jeremy Maclin. Both CB’s, Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are extremely questionable. While the line value, assuming most of these guys were healthy, and the situations favor the Eagles, simply too many question marks for me to play them in this game. NEW ENGLAND 27 PHILADELPHIA 24

SAN DIEGO –6 Denver 42

SD qualifies in my turnover table, which is 436-286-18 but Denver qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 550-399-23. Numbers favor SD by only two points and predict about 45 points. Tim Tebow is now 4-1 SU as a starter with the only loss at home to Detroit. But, along the way, he has defeated a couple of decent teams in Oakland and the Jets. Denver has only been blown out of two games this year and that was on the road at Green Bay and at home to Detroit. SD is not either one of those teams and has now lost five games in a row. The Chargers were 4-1 SU earlier this year but those wins came against bad teams, such as Miami, Minnesota, Kansas City and Denver without Tebow. Actually Tebow came into that game late and almost rallied Denver to a win. Denver is a much different team right now. Yes, if they fall behind early, it could spell trouble for them, but they are like the Princeton’s of college basketball. They limit the possessions with their run style type offense, which also gives the defense a break, and has subsequently improved their overall defensive numbers. The Chargers continue to be very banged up on the offensive line and on defense and Denver should be able to take advantage of the generous numbers being given in this game. DENVER 24 SAN DIEGO 23

Pittsburgh –10.5 KANSAS CITY 40.5

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by just 6.5 points and predict about 39 points. Hard to say what we will get from KC and if Kyle Orton will show up if Tyler Palko looks bad. But, there is some value with KC in this game and Pittsburgh hasn’t won a road game by more than 12 points this year, including winning by just three points at Indianapolis. But, KC has lost four games by at least 28 points this year, including two at home, so it’s very hard to take them as well. PITTSBURGH 24 KANSAS CITY 13

[timbob]

Robert Ferrringo

3-Unit Play. Take #233 New England (-4) over Philadelphia (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 27)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #216 St. Louis (-3) over Arizona (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 27)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #221 Houston (-3.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 27)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #224 Indianapolis (+3) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 27)

1-Unit Play. Take #219 Cleveland (+7.5) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 27)

2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #124 N.Y. Jets (-2) over Buffalo (1 p.m.) AND Take #237 Pittsburgh (-3) over Kansas City (8:30 p.m.)

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #228 Atlanta (-2.5) over Minnesota (1 p.m.) AND Take #237 Pittsburgh (-3) over Kansas City (8:30 p.m.)

This Week's Totals:
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 42.5 Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 27)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 45.5 Carolina at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 27)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 41.5 Chicago at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 27)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 42.0 Denver at San Diego (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 27)

[timbob]

Doc Sports

4* Take New York Jets -8.5 over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 p.m. CBS)

5* Take Chicago Bears +4.5 over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:05 p.m. FOX)
NFL Game of the Year.

4* Take San Diego Chargers -6 over Denver Broncos (Sunday 4:15 p.m. CBS)

[timbob]

Winning Points
Prf = 13 -7
B:B = 7 - 12 -2

Preferred
Oakland Raiders
NY Jets

Best Bets
Jacksonville Jaguars
San Diego Chargers

[timbob]

Red Sheet

RATING: HOUSTON TEXANS 89

Sports Reporter
Rec = 8 - 8
B.B = 12 - 13 -1

Recomended
Carolina Panthers

Best Bets
Houston Texans
NY Jets

[timbob]

Powerplay
1*=4-2-1
2*=13-2
3*=18-9
3.5*=1-0
4*=5-9

4* JETS 27 BILLS 13
3* BENGALS 24 BROWNS 13
3.5* TEXANS 34 JAGUARS 11
3* FALCONS 28 VIKINGS 13
2* SEAHAWKS 19 REDSKINS 13

Powersweep
2*=9-6
3*=7-5
4*=6-5

4* Houston
2* SEATTLE

[timbob]

Pointwise
2=10-5
3=12-6
4=6-6
5=10-10-1

HOU Texans RATING: 2
CAR Panthers RATING: 3
DEN Broncos RATING: 4
TAMPA BAY RATING: 5
NEW YORK GIANTS RATING: 5

[timbob]

Marc Lawrence - Playbook
AA=0-3
3*=7-4
4*=5-6
5*=7-4

3* Indianapolis Colts
5* Philadelphia Eagles
4* Chicago Bears

[timbob]

Nellys
1=9-5
2=4-8
3=9-3
4=7-3
5=4-5-3

rating 5 tampa bay (+3)
rating 4 houston (-3½)
rating 3 cleveland (+7½)
rating 2 oakland (+1)
rating 1 denver (+6½)

[timbob]

Gold Sheet
17 - 16 -1

CINCINNATI BY 18
HOUSTON by 14
OVER Chicago-Oakland

Gold Sheet - CKO
10* 20 - 17

10* TAMPA BAY

[timbob]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 27



Time Posted: 1:00 p.m. EST (11/23)


Game 215-216: Arizona at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 126.762; St. Louis 124.145
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); N/A


Game 217-218: Buffalo at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 131.763; NY Jets 133.714
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 2; 39
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 9; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+9); Under


Game 219-220: Cleveland at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.494; Cincinnati 137.464
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 13; 40
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Over


Game 221-222: Houston at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 137.093; Jacksonville 131.959
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3); Over


Game 223-224: Carolina at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 122.722; Indianapolis 121.771
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+3 1/2); Under


Game 225-226: Tampa Bay at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 129.860; Tennessee 130.568
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1; 39
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3 1/2); Under


Game 227-228: Minnesota at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 124.530; Atlanta 138.469
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 14; 48
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-9 1/2); Over


Game 229-230: Chicago at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 128.125; Oakland 134.309
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 6; 39
Vegas Line: Oakland by 4 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-4 1/2); Under


Game 231-232: Washington at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 124.176; Seattle 126.599
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle 4; 37
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Over


Game 233-234: New England at Philadelphia (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.340; Philadelphia 135.662
Dunkel Line: New England by 6 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: New England by 3; No Total
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); N/A


Game 235-236: Denver at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.699; San Diego 134.644
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 7; 38
Vegas Line: San Diego by 6; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-6); Under


Game 237-238: Pittsburgh at Kansas City (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 137.963; Kansas City 126.060
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12; 37
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 40

[timbob]

Indian Cowboy

6* K.C. Chiefs +10.5

[timbob]

POINTWISE PHONES:

4* Houst

3* Jets, Giants(Mon)

2* Seattle, Chic, under in Wash/Seattle

BEST OF LUCK

[timbob]

Mike Francesa - WFAN -NFL Now (17-13) LW (2-0) Record does not include Miami play from Thurs
NYJ
Seattle