11-27-11

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Evan Roberts - WFAN - Yr (20-12) LW (2-1) Record does not include SF play on Thur
Carolina
Oakland

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Colin Cowherd

Denver
Washington

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Football Jesus


NFL
OVER 44 panthers/Colts
OVER 39 Chiefs/Steelers
UNDER 42 Bears/Raiders
last week there were spots in vegas dealing SAINTS for Monday -6.5 ? My numbers say this line should be -8
I took Saints-6-120 ... dont lay more than -7!!!!

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David Chan aka The Dragon NFL 11/27/11

Bills @ Jets Pick: 8* un42.5
Tampa @ Tennessee Pick: 8* Tenn -3
Houston @ Jax Pick: 8* Jax +3.5
Minn @ Atl Pick: 10* un44
Carolina @ Indy Pick: 10* Indy +3.5
Bears @ Raiders Pick: 10* un41.5 "NO-LIMIT TOTAL"
Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ British Columbia Lions Pick: 10* ov50.5 "GREY CUP WINNER"
Pittsburgh @ KC Pick: 10* KC +11.5 "BANZAI BLOWOUT"

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NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: WEEK 12
By Colin Kelly


Green Bay (-6.5) at Detroit
WHY PACKERS COVER: Can anything negative be said about this team? They’ve won a whole season’s worth of games straight up – 16 in a row, including their run to the Super Bowl title. And they’ve been stout against the spread that entire time, going 12-4. The Lions are losers of seven in a row straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on Thanksgiving Day, including two double-digit defeats to Green Bay.
WHY LIONS COVER: These aren’t the same Lions who annually get rolled by double digits while all of us pound turkey and stuffing. They’ve cashed 10 of their last 13 at home and six of seven as an underdog. Plus, they’re ridiculously resilient, coming from behind to win three times this year in games they’ve trailed by 17 or more points, including last week’s 49-35 home win over Carolina. This is a huge statement game for Detroit, and the team will be amped.
TOTAL (55.5): That is a lot of points, but chew on this while waiting for the bird to finish cooking: Green Bay averages a league-leading 35.5 points per game while Detroit is close behind in third at 30.1. The game is indoors, so weather won’t hinder the offenses.

Miami at Dallas (-7)
WHY DOLPHINS COVER: By their standards, they are on fire, winning and covering three in a row after opening season 0-7 SU (1-5-1 ATS), with all three wins by 10 or more points. Miami is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 as road pup and Dallas is a meager 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 when laying points.
WHY COWBOYS COVER: They enjoy Thanksgiving spotlight, covering five in a row on Turkey Day (4-1 SU), and they’ve beaten the books in the last six Thursday contests. Dallas has also won its last three at home by double digits (2-1 ATS) and is 17-7 ATS last 24 in November.
TOTAL (44): Something’s got to give here. Miami has the under on a major run including 8-0-1 overall, 7-0 catching points and 20-6 on highway. Dallas, meanwhile, is on over streaks of 20-6 overall, 11-3 at home and 6-1 in November.

San Francisco at Baltimore (-3.5)
WHY 49ERS COVER: They’re the best in the NFL against the spread this season, having not lost a single contest against the number at 9-0-1 ATS. In fact, they’re on an eight-game SU and ATS firestorm heading into Baltimore for a clash of the Fabulous Coaching Harbaugh Brothers.
WHY RAVENS COVER: John Harbaugh’s troops get up for quality opponents and tend to play down to lesser opponents. They’ve beaten defending AFC champ Steelers twice this season SU and ATS, drubbed the Jets and Texans, and were up 17 in the fourth quarter last week against Cincinnati before settling for a push as 7-point favorites.
TOTAL (38.5): Two of the NFL’s best defenses are involved, with Niners allowing a league-low 14.5 ppg and Baltimore third at 17.6 ppg. Jim Harbaugh’s San Fran squad has held foes to 20 points or fewer in six straight outings. Oddly enough, despite Ravens’ solid defense, the over has hit in four straight.

Carolina (-3.5) at Indianapolis
WHY COLTS COVER: Boy, you know you’ve hit rock bottom when you’re catching 3.5 points at home against a 2-8 team. But this might be the breakthrough week for Indianapolis (0-10 SU, 2-8 ATS). Carolina on three-game SU and ATS slide and in 1-6 ATS rut on road. Indy 4-0 ATS last four off bye week.
WHY PANTHERS COVER: There’s a reason Cam Newton & Co. are laying 3.5 points – Indy is awful. Carolina has cashed six straight as road favorite (a role they haven’t been in since October 2009), and Colts on slew of pointspread purges, including 0-6 overall and 1-6 at home dome.
TOTAL (45.5): Total has gone high six of last seven with Panthers a road favorite, and over 8-3-1 Colts’ last dozen off a SU loss.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (-9)
WHY BILLS COVER: This is it for them. After starting out 4-1 SU, they’ve lost four of last five. If they harbor any playoff hopes, they need to not only cash, but win outright. And they’ve got further motivation, having been whipped at home by Jets 27-11 three weeks ago. Additionally, in this AFC East rivalry, the road team is on 7-1 ATS roll and the underdog has beaten the number in nine of last 12.
WHY JETS COVER: Rex Ryan’s squad is in a similar spot to Buffalo, desperately needing strong performance to reassert itself as playoff contender after back-to-back SU and ATS losses. The Jets have beaten Bills SU and ATS in each of the last four meetings.
TOTAL (41.5): Buffalo has the over on an 8-2-1 run overall, 6-0-1 getting points and 5-0-1 on road. New York has the over on a 20-8 string overall, 8-3 off SU loss and 8-3 inside division.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-9)
WHY BROWNS COVER: Not much to say in favor of Cleveland, but road teams in this rivalry have covered in eight of the last nine. Cincy's in 3-13 ATS rut laying points at home.
WHY BENGALS COVER: Cleveland can’t score. The Browns have put up 17 or fewer points in eight straight games, including 14 or fewer in last five outings. Conversely, Cincy has scored 23 or more in six of its last seven starts. The Bengals are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 while the Browns are 0-7 ATS as underdogs.
TOTAL (37.5): Cleveland’s lackluster offense certainly points to the under, which is 5-1 in Browns’ last six. The under has also cashed in the last four Browns-Bengals affairs in Cincy. On flip side, Cincinnati is on 6-1 over surge.

Arizona at St. Louis (N/A)
WHY CARDINALS COVER: Boy, this is one of those games where you want to take your parents’ advice – if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all. That said, in a meeting of lousy teams, Cards (3-1 ATS last four) are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the Rams, who are on 2-9 ATS nosedive.
WHY RAMS COVER: Despite the record, they’ve been better lately behind resurgent RB Steven Jackson, who had three straight games of 128 or more yards before last week’s letdown against Seattle. The Cards are 1-7 ATS in their last eight NFC West outings.
TOTAL: St. Louis is averaging a league-worst 12 ppg, so looking low appears smart. The Cardinals have played under in six of seven and the last seven between the two clubs have ducked under the total.

Tampa Bay at Tennessee (-3.5)
WHY BUCCANEERS COVER: They're heartened by good showing at Green Bay last week, cashing as 14-point pup in 35-26 loss. This won't seem like as tough of a test. The Bucs are among best in league ATS on the road at 15-5-1 in their last 21 overall and 13-3 when catching points.
WHY TITANS COVER: They’ve cashed in three of four, including last week at Atlanta and Mike Munchak’s unit is on a 6-1 ATS stretch when coming off a SU loss.
TOTAL (43): The under has been the play in Tennessee’s last four games.

Houston (-3.5) at Jacksonville
WHY TEXANS COVER: Sure, they lost QB Matt Schaub, but they’ve got stud RB Arian Foster, who leads league’s second-best running attack (158.1 ypg). They should still be able to control the clock and sit fifth in the NFL at 27.3 ppg. Jacksonville's 31st at 12.5 ppg.
WHY JAGUARS COVER: The home team is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in the last four of this AFC South rivalry.
TOTAL (37.5): Jacksonville’s inability to score points, coupled with Houston’s desire to run ball makes under look good. The Jags sport under streaks of 5-0 overall, 5-0 against winning teams and 4-0 when getting points.

Minnesota at Atlanta (-9.5)
WHY VIKINGS COVER: Not much to say in Minnesota’s defense – or about Minnesota’s defense (27.1 ppg, 30th). What Vikes do have going for them is Atlanta's on pair of 2-5 ATS skids, as a favorite and coming off SU win.
WHY FALCONS COVER: Minnesota's defense has allowed 27 points or more in four of last five weeks, including 39 at Chicago and 33 and 45 in home and road losses to Green Bay. Minny may not have stud RB Adrian Peterson (ankle), which will allow Atlanta to put heat on Vikes rookie QB Christian Ponder. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against losing teams.
TOTAL (44): The Falcons have the under on a 6-0 run overall, 5-0 off SU wins and 5-1-1 as home favorites.

Chicago at Oakland (-4.5)
WHY BEARS COVER: They are among hottest teams in league at moment, beating opponents and pointspreads in five straight. In four of those games, they’ve piled up 30 or more points - thanks in large part to RB Matt Forte (926 rushing yards, 465 receiving yards).
WHY RAIDERS COVER: Chicago won’t have QB Jay Cutler (thumb) for several weeks, meaning the inexperienced Caleb Hanie will start for the Bears. And despite Oakland likely missing RB Darren McFadden again, Michael Bush (115 ypg last four) is more than serviceable. The Raiders own the third best rushing attack in the league 156.8 ypg and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11.
TOTAL (41.5): Oakland has scored 24 or more points in seven of its last nine and Chicago has topped 24 in six of seven, including five games of 30 or more.

Washington at Seattle (-3.5)
WHY REDSKINS COVER: Well, they haven’t won a game since Week 4, so not much to say here. About all they can hope for is that Seahawks QB Tarvaris Jackson plays poorly, which is surely within Jackson’s capabilities.
WHY SEAHAWKS COVER: As much as we rag on Jackson in this space, there's no denying Seattle is actually 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight overall, 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 12-4 in its last 16 when laying points at home.
TOTAL (37.5): A fairly low number here, but perhaps merited by fact that ‘Skins average just 16.0 ppg (27th) with the Seahawks only a tick better at 16.8 ppg (26th). Washington has played under in seven of its last nine and five of six on the road. However, the over is 8-2 in Seattle's last 10 at home and 15-6 in its last 21 overall.

Denver at San Diego (-6.5)
WHY BRONCOS COVER: Haven’t you heard? The miraculous Tim Tebow is the comeback king, helping Denver to a 4-1 SU and ATS mark since he's been under center. San Diego's in absolute tailspin, losing last five in a row SU and ATS.
WHY CHARGERS COVER: If Norv Turner wants to stay employed, the Bolts must win not only this week, but pretty much every game for the rest of season. Denver may be just the cure for Chargers, who have won eight of last 10 in this rivalry (7-1-2 ATS). The Broncos are 10-22-2 ATS in the last 34 matchups.
TOTAL (43.5): Broncos have played over at a 22-9 clip in the last 31 overall, 21-8 last 29 against the AFC West), while Chargers play under at a 8-1 record in the last nine at home, 8-0 with Bolts as home favorites.

New England (-3) at Philadelphia:
WHY PATRIOTS COVER: After a midseason stumble of two consecutive SU and ATS losses, the Pats posted SU and ATS routs of the Jets and Chiefs and now have legitimate shot at No. 1 seed in AFC. Bill Belichick’s troops have provided long-term ATS stability on road, going 47-23-3 ATS in their last 73. Philly is 1-7 ATS in its last eight at home.
WHY EAGLES COVER: Desperation can be great motivator, as Eagles proved last week against the Giants behind backup QB Vince Young. Philly can’t afford to lose any more games. Quarterback Michael Vick (ribs) is not certain to play, but Young got the job done last week.
TOTAL: The under has hit in four of five at home and six of eight overall for Philly. On the flip side, New England is on over runs of 21-8 overall and 10-4 on the highway.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Kansas City
WHY STEELERS COVER: That’s a big number for a road team at Arrowhead, but K.C. has been awful lately, totaling just 16 points over three consecutive SU and ATS losses. The defending AFC champs, meanwhile, have won five of six (4-2 ATS) and own pair of 8-3 ATS streaks, as a favorite and against losing teams.
WHY CHIEFS COVER: QB Tyler Palko can’t be much worse than last week (three INTs), as he replaces the injured Matt Cassel for rest of season. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in the last six as an underdog, 4-1 ATS in the last five as a home pup. Pittsburgh is 6-15 ATS in the last 21 when laying more than 10, while the Chiefs are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 when catching more than 10.
TOTAL (39.5): Almost all trends point to the over for Pittsburgh and to the under for the Chiefs. But in this occasional rivalry, the total has gone over in five straight overall and four in a row at Arrowhead.

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (-7)
WHY GIANTS COVER: They’ve dumped two in a row SU and ATS and need to get the ship righted to keep NFC East hopes on track. Tom Coughlin’s squad likes the Monday night spotlight (4-0 ATS) and is a solid road bet (30-14 ATS in the last 44).
WHY SAINTS COVER: They’ve got home-dome advantage. New Orleans is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four at the Superdome and coming off the bye week, the Saints have had extra week to rest up for Giants. Home team favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Giants-Saints affairs.
TOTAL (50.5): Big number, but with Saints averaging 31.3 ppg (second), the over is always in play. The over has cashed in New Orleans’ last four off its bye week.

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Tip Sheet - Week 12
By Kevin Rogers

The Week 12 card on Sunday involves a handful of home teams without dynamic offenses laying points. Those squads include the Jets, Bengals, Seahawks, and Chargers – all teams that are ranked 12th or lower in the league in points per game. The question heading into Sunday is which clubs are worth backing? We’ll start at Met Life Stadium with an AFC East showdown in which the loser is likely knocked out of playoff contention.

Bills at Jets (-9, 42)

New York drilled Buffalo in Orchard Park three weeks ago, 27-11, beginning a tailspin for the Bills in which Chan Gailey's team has lost three consecutive games. The Jets have gone backwards since that blowout win with losses to the Patriots and Broncos the last two weeks to fall to 5-5. New York goes for the all-important sweep to gain the tiebreaker over Buffalo, while the Bills will try to end their skid without their most important offensive weapon.

Fred Jackson, the league's third-leading rusher, is out for the rest of the season with a broken bone in his left leg, further hurting Buffalo's shot at a Wild Card berth. Both teams haven't profited from an ATS standpoint, while the Bills are just 1-3-1 ATS away from home. The Jets are 3-2 ATS at home, including a 2-0 ATS mark as a touchdown favorite or more. New York is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings in this series, including three consecutive victories by double-digits.

Browns at Bengals (-7½, 37½)

The battle of Ohio takes place on the South Side at Paul Brown Stadium as the Bengals (6-4) look to sweep the Browns (4-6). Cincinnati stunned Cleveland in Week 1 as 6 ½-point road underdogs, 27-17, as the Bengals scored two late touchdowns to win outright. The victory by Cincinnati started an unlikely ATS run that resulted in seven of eight covers, while racking up a 6-2 SU record.

Marvin Lewis' club has crashed back to reality following consecutive losses to the big boys in the AFC North, falling to Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Bengals are one of the top 'over' teams in the league with an 8-2 mark, including an 'over' in last Sunday's 31-24 setback to the Ravens. The Browns snapped a three-game skid by holding off the Jaguars, 14-10, but Cleveland has scored 17 points or less in nine of 10 games this season.

Redskins at Seahawks (-3½, 37)

There are no playoff implications when Washington (3-7) heads to the Pacific Northwest to battle Seattle (4-6), but this game does have some interesting storylines. The Redskins' dismal offense is expected to get back wide receiver Santana Moss after missing the last four games with a fractured left hand. Washington has dropped six straight games following a 3-1 start, while finally cashing a ticket in last Sunday's overtime loss to Dallas, 27-24 as seven-point 'dogs.

The Seahawks are listed as a favorite for the first time this season, as Pete Carroll's club has turned into a hidden gem for gamblers. Seattle owns a 6-3-1 ATS record, including three consecutive covers against Dallas, Baltimore, and St. Louis. The Seahawks are 3-1 ATS at Qwest Field, while going 7-4 ATS in Carroll's tenure at home. The Redskins are making their first visit to Seattle since a 20-17 victory over the Seahawks in 2008.

Broncos at Chargers (-6, 42)

The AFC West was San Diego's to lose this season after falling short in 2010. However, the Lightning Bolts have crashed and burned with five straight losses following a 4-1 start as the Chargers attempt to catch the Raiders in the West. San Diego will try to end its losing ways against a re-born Denver squad that is 4-1 since inserting Tim Tebow into the starting quarterback role.

The Broncos (5-5) aren't dead yet in the AFC West as John Fox's club is fresh off a 17-13 victory over the Jets as six-point home 'dogs. Denver has covered three straight games in the underdog role, but the Broncos are just 2-8 SU and 1-8-1 ATS the last 10 meetings against the Chargers. San Diego held off Denver, 29-24 in Week 5 as 3 ½-point favorites, the last victory for the Bolts prior to this five-game skid. The Chargers, are tied with the Colts and Rams with the worst pointspread records in the league at 2-8 ATS, while San Diego has compiled a 1-4 ATS mark at home.

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Sports Wagers

Chicago +181 over Oakland

Jay Cutler or Jay Leno, the Bears are the better team here and taking any points offered is a gift. Chicago has won five straight and with Matt Forte leading the way against the Raiders 25th ranked run defense, a sixth straight win would not surprise. Oakland remains beat up at all sorts of positions and the team continues to take costly penalties. Bears QB Caleb Hanie has been in the organization for four years. He’s familiar with the offense and when combined with Chicago’s defense and special teams play, he can lead his team to a win here. Yes, the loss of Cutler is a significant one but teams often rise to the occasion in times of adversity and you can expect the Bears to dig down deep in support of their fill-in QB. Play: Chicago +181 (Risking 2 units).

SAN DIEGO –6 over Denver

There are times in college football when an unranked team is actually favored against a ranked squad. That’s mainly because oddsmakers know the real truth and pointspreads are not based on myth. The same principle applies here. A San Diego team that has lost five straight is listed as a 6-point favorite. That is reality and it sends a loud message. This is the NFL and it has never been more of a passing league than it is today. Tebowmania is fantasy. He’s a great story and he’s also extremely likeable because he’s so humble and appreciative of the chance he’s been given. He has more wins than Cam Newton but his success is unsustainable. Tim Tebow is not an NFL quarterback and the success of the Broncos college play calling is about to come to an abrupt halt. The films have been studied and it’s over for Tebow. Give us one of the league’s best passers in Philip Rivers, facing off against Tim Tebow and his embarrassing passing abilities and a blowout would not surprise, just like that recent forgotten one that the Lions put on these Broncos a short time ago. Play: San Diego –6 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Cleveland +8 over CINCINNATI

Bengals battered and bruised both emotionally and physically after pair of losses to Steelers and Ravens respectively. That makes spotting its biggest spread of the year a considerable order for adolescent Cincinnati bunch. The Bengals are getting lots of love and respect for competing week in and week out and even sharing the lead in the NFC North for a time. However, a close look reveals that the Bengals last four wins have come against Tennessee, Seattle, Indy and Jacksonville and all were close with the exception of a 34-12 win over Seattle in a game that was 17-12 with seven minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The Bengals other two wins came against Buffalo by three and they opened the season with a 10-point win over these same Brownies. So yeah, they’ve been competitive all year but they’ve not come close to showing an ability to put away teams. Cleveland’s unheralded defense has actually allowed fewer points than Cincy’s and it’s also worth noting that the Browns have not quit playing. Overlay. Play: Cleveland +8 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

THE REST:

JACKSONVILLE +4 over Houston

The Texans go from ‘score Matt’ to ‘door Matt’ as Leinart replaces the injured Schaub. While the line has been adjusted to account for the change, we still prefer a Jacksonville side that plays solid defense and is returning home after three away. Jags last game as host was a win over Ravens. TAKING: JAGUARS +4 (No bets).

INDIANAPOLIS +3½ over Carolina

Panthers came out of the gates guns a blazin’. Now they appear to be shooting blanks. Their neophyte offense is making too many mistakes while the defense is giving up chunks every week and it’s not getting better. Cam Newton nailed it. This team has put on a clinic for “how to lose.” Every week we tune into the Panthers game and think, “hey, these guys are going to win this thing.” But then they don’t. Meanwhile John Fox is off winning a division with a team almost as bad as this one. Good times. Good times. Colts are unsightly but are offered home points from a weak opponent, after a bye week. Play: Indianapolis +3½ (No bets).

Minnesota +9½ over ATLANTA

The Falcons lack football’s killer instinct. Until they acquire it, we’re not anxious to be spotting prohibitive points with them. Obviously, the Vikings aren’t the same with Adrian Peterson on the shelf but as we observed when they lost him last week, Minnesota won’t roll over. Play: Minnesota +9½ (No bets).

N.Y. JETS –9 over Buffalo

While the Jets remain iffy, we’ll grant them a mulligan for their dismal performance in Denver, seeing that they had a difficult scheduling sequence. Off 10 days rest and facing a spiraling Bills team, New York should control a visitor that it defeated by 27-11 count in Buffalo just three weeks ago. Looks like Fred Jackson is on the rack for the Bills and he’s their best weapon. Play: New York Jets –9 (No bets).

Tampa Bay +3½ over TENNESSEE

Bucs have taken a step back this year or have they? Tampa’s previous six games was a nasty set that included the 49ers, Saints, Bears (in London), Saints again, Texans and Packers. This becomes a drop in class against a Tennessee that isn’t strong to begin with and could be without its starting quarterback. Play: Tampa Bay +3½ (No bets).

Arizona +3 over ST. LOUIS

St. Louis shouldn’t be favored over Arizona’s cheerleaders, let alone its football team. The Rams are an abomination and after getting smoked at home to the Seahawks, the morale on this untalented and injured squad has to be at an all time low. Not exactly a marquee game. Never expect bad teams to do something good. Play: Arizona +3 (No bets).

Washington +4 over SEATTLE

Amazingly, the Seahawks have not been favored in their past 17 games. Then again, unless they are playing within their feeble division (sans San Francisco) or facing the Colts, we see no reason that they should be. Tashard Choice had his big chance to exact revenge upon the team that allowed him to rot on the bench for years before discarding him. 7 yards on 6 carries. So much for revenge. Ryan Torain pitched in for 4 yards on 5 carries. After playing Skins for a few weeks, we just can’t get off them now. Washington’s pass rush enough to tip the scales in its favor. Play: Washington +4 (No bets).

Philadelphia +3½ over NEW ENGLAND

The Eagles playoff hopes remain on life support but at least there’s a pulse. After a crucial road win at Giants, Philly will host a New England squad that is traveling on a short week along with its share of injuries. Vick or no Vick, Eagles speedy playmakers pose problems for Patriots defensive schemes and this one looks like a huge trap, as the line is small and everyone you know will love the Patriots. Play: Philadelphia +3½ (No bets).

KANSAS CITY +10½ over Pittsburgh

It’s not easy to make a case for the Chiefs. Even if the Chiefs hadn’t lost their best players to injury this season, they had no business polluting prime time more than once this season. Two prime time games within a week? Hmm. That heap big ratings bump for show that not football on other channel. Paleface who buys ads lose 'em scalp on that deal. All kidding aside, these big favorites can’t keep getting the money in prime time games. The lines are inflated and they’re getting worse, as the chalk continues to cover. You’re paying a huge premium to wager on the Steelers here. With Ben Roethlisberger nursing a fractured thumb and facing a team that has limited ability, expect the Steelers to take a conservative approach to this one. That will suit the Chiefs, as they will hope to run the ball and keep Pittsburgh’s offense off the field, keeping this one within range. Big caution flag on the favorite. Play: Kansas City +10½ (No bets)

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Info Plays

7* Redskins / Seahawks Under 37½

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Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day:

Columbus Blue Jackets + St Louis Blues UNDER 5.5

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Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Chicago Bears +4.5 over the Oakland Raiders

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Basketball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Wake Forest -1.5 over Texas Tech

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Today's CFL Picks
Winnipeg at BC

The Lions look to take advantage of a Winnipeg team that is coming off a 19-3 win over Hamilton and is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU win. BC is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: BC (-7). Here are all of this week's
CFL picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 27
Time Posted: 2:00 p.m. EST (11/24)

Game 291-292: Winnipeg at BC (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 114.840; BC 125.556
Dunkel Line: BC by 10 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: BC by 7; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (-7); Over

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PREDICTION MACHINE

Paul's Picks:

Atlanta -9 60.9%
Houston -3 59.2%
Chicago +4.5 58.8%

Normal Plays:

Carolina -3.5 58.5%
Pittsburgh -10 58.3%
Denver +6.5 57.6%


remaining:

Cleveland +7.5 56.7%
Philadelphia +4 56.5%
Tennessee -3 53.9%
St. Louis -3 53.1%
Buffalo +8 51.4%
Washington +4 50.6%

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Cappers Access
Bears +3
Eagles +3-
Steelers -10-

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Super Dog Picks

NFL Football Top Notch Picks

Sunday, November 27, 2011
1:00 pm est. Buffalo at NY Jets

Pick: UNDER 42
Rating: 4 BONES
Analysis: The under is 8-0 when the Bills are playing a division game after losing ATS on the road in 2 straight games. The under is also 6-0 when NFL teams play as road dogs of 7->9.5 in division after going under on the road against a bad team. The Bills offense has been slowed down and staggered with injuries as they have averaged just 8.7 ppg over their last 3. The under is 12-2 in the Jets last 14 games in week 12. Their offense has struggled as well scoring just 13 and 16 points in their last 2 contests.

1:00 pm est. Cleveland at Cincinnati

Pick: Cleveland (+7)
Rating: 3 BONES
Analysis: The Bengals have been beat up by the Steelers and Ravens the past two weeks and will find it tough against an underrated Browns defense. The Bengals are giving the most points they have in any contest this year and we'll take em in this in state rivalry. Cincinnati has gone 0-6 ATS against Cleveland after a loss where the total went over. The underdog has gone 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams.

1:00 pm est. Minnesota at Atlanta

Pick: Atlanta (-9)
Rating: 3 BONES
Analysis: Minnesota will be without Peterson playing a Falcon team that has won 4 of their last 5 games SU. Minnesota has gone 2-9-1 ATS against teams with a winning record and are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on the road. On the other hand, Atlanta has gone 8-1 ATS against teams with a losing record. Minnesota has been outscored by an average of 14 points over their last 3 games and Atlanta has outscored their opponents by 9. I like the Falcons with a 2 score win here.

1:00 pm est. Houston at Jacksonville

Pick: Jacksonville (+6.5)
Rating: 2 BONES
Analysis: Jacksonville has gone 6-0-1 ATS as home dogs in conference after losing SU + ATS on the road, of which 5 of those wins were when the spread was 3->6.5. They are returning home after 3 straight on the road. The Jags defense has been underrated all season as they have allowed 18 points per game. Hard to see Houston winning big here as they will be playing their first game without Shaub as QB. I am not sold on Matt Lienert leading this team to a big win. Good value at home with the Jags in a division game.

4:15 pm est. Denver at San Diego

Pick: Denver (+6)
Rating: 3 BONES
Analysis: Denver has gone 6-0 ATS as road dogs in division after going under against a good team. They are also 5-0-1 ATS against San Diego after winning SU+ATS and going under at home. San Diego has gone 0-8 ATS at home after losing SU + ATS and going over as dogs to a good team. Teams have gon 0-5-1 ATS as home favorites in division after going over on the road as dogs against a bad team. The Chargers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 against the AFC. San Diego has lost 5 in a row and don't have a reason to lay 6 points to a team that has won 3 straight.

8:20 pm est. Pittsburgh at Kansas City

Pick: Pittsburgh (-10.5)
Rating: 5 BONES
Analysis: Last Monday I won my MNF game of the year by taking the Patriots to blowout the Cheifs and they did by 31 points. That was the fourth team to blowout the Chiefs and tonight should be the 5th. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS when playing the Steelers after a loss. The Cheifs are playing on a short week with a holiday in between and the Steelers have had 2 weeks off. Roethlisberger's thumb should not be an issue as he has played effectively in the same situation previously in his career. The Chiefs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 in November and 5-11 in their last 16 vs. the AFC. Although the Chiefs picked up Orton, Palko will start again against one of the best defenses in the league.