Saturday 11/29/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2025, 06:27 AM

Race of the Week: FSS In Reality at Gulfstream | Saturday

November 25, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Florida's top 2-year-olds ring in the Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park with dual headliners Saturday. The series finales of the Florida Sire Stakes for 2025 share the spotlight, the $300K My Dear Girl in Race 5 for the fillies and the $300K In Reality in Race 10 for the colts & geldings.

Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can take advantage of the FSS series finales 2 ways. Both the My Dear Girl (Race 5) and In Reality (Race 10) will offer up to a $10 money-back special. Get your money back if your win bet finishes second or third. Also, both races are part of our Turkey Bowl holiday week bonanza. Customers who hit Win bets ($10 base minimum or higher) on a minimum of ten (10) different selected stakes races between Thursday and Sunday will earn an equal split of $10,000 in bonus cash

Field Depth:
KHOZALITE is the only stakes winner in the field to date. CAMIGOL is graded stakes-placed, while STRATEGIC RISK, SQUIRE and TRELAWNY are listed stakes-placed. That cluster of runners have held the strongest company lines to date, but class handicapping is always highly judgmental with inexperienced juveniles.

Pace:
The 1-1/16 miles distance provides a new challenge for all but 1 of these, so the tempo will be important while rationing sprint speed. Early pace should come from the inside trio of KHOZALITE, PROST and ROGER THAT DANA, who are advantaged with inner-draws given the short run to the clubhouse turn.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-KHOZALITE: Lukewarm 7-2 favorite ran like a 7-5 shot in the Florida Sire Stakes Affirmed on October 18, drawing off by 4 lengths over 7 furlongs. Solid-enough 88 BRIS late pace figure given his running style in the Affirmed, and note he's already won around 2 turns in a turf mile in August. No real knocks, but note that regular rider Leonel Reyes is sidelined with a broken ankle and Edgard Zayas takes the call for the first time.

#2-PROST: Romping, 9-length debut winner gives trainer Jose D'Angelo the first 2 in the starting gate Saturday (along with Khozalite) and maybe the first 2 across the wire. Miguel Vazquez has the return call on the 7-furlong winner who widened with every stride and earned an excellent 89 BRIS late pace figure for a pacemaker.

#3-ROGER THAT DANA: 3-length debut winner was never headed Oct. 25 when bet to 5-2 favoritism. Trainer Luis Ramirez had a ready-made 2YO who cost $85K at Ocala despite his $4K sire Awesome Slew. Jockey Jonathan Ocasio hops saddles, however, to FSS Affirmed runner-up Squire and leaves this mount to Marcos Meneses.

#4-HAWK: Maiden through 3 starts, this one was a flat-late fourth in the FSS Affirmed. Trainer Carlos David put another start into him since that Oct. 18 stakes, dropping back to the maiden ranks, when a disappointing second at even-money. Seemed to regress in that one and there's no obvious element of improvement expected. Joe Bravo picks up the mount for the first time.

#5-STRATEGIC RISK: FSS Affirmed third-place finisher had no real excuse last out sprinting, but could be the candidate to improve most on Saturday. May be best-equipped in terms of pedigree for the stretch-out in distance, and is the only runner in the field to try 1-1/16 miles, albeit a tired sixth on turf at Saratoga vs. stronger competition. Mark Casse turns to Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano for the first time.

#6-CAMIGOL: FSS series veteran was runner-up in the Dr. Fager in September before the wheels came off in October's Affirmed, where he was eased to the wire and walked off. Trainer Antonio Sano had him right back on the workout tab 14 days after and he's worked on cue 4 times since. The distance could suit if he's beyond the mysterious performance last out. Difficult read.

#7-SQUIRE: Another veteran of the FSS Dr. Fager (fifth) and Affirmed (second), this April debut winner has been dancing all the stakes dances locally. Patrick Biancone trainee owns a couple of runners-up and couple of fifth-place finishes at the stakes level. While sire Leinster best known as a sprinter, this one's even running style is often successful around 2 turns. Pretty consistent late pace figures as well. Not illogical for a potential piece again.

#8-GOLD MINER: First-time starter for Riley Mott makes an auspicious appearance for $300K. Churchill-based colt by St. Patrick's Day hasn't been flashy on the workout tab. Mott scores just 7% with rookies. The last 2YO debut stakes winner at 1-1/16 miles I can find in the Betmix database came in 2016 at Woodbine. Make him prove it.

#9-SUPREME HONOR: Longshot, 4-race maiden has been well-beaten in his last pair. Trailed Khozalite by 14 lengths when they matched up in August in a 2-turn mile. No thanks.

#10-THE TOWN: Keeneland debut runner-up rallied from the clouds as the 2-1 favorite and finished second-best to an even-stronger closer. Ready-made type cost $150K at Ocala despite $8,500 sire Win Win Win. Field-best 92 BRIS late pace figure in debut effort for a Brad Cox barn not frequent to the FSS series. Sent straight to Payson Park after the Keeneland runner-up with an eye on this and the Championship Meet. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo picks up the mount as debut pilot Irad Ortiz Jr. rides a stakes-heavy Churchill Downs card on Saturday. Factor, but must overcome difficult post, and the video study of the debut not quite as impressive as the running lines suggest.

#11-TRELAWNY: Blinkers come off local stakes campaigner who was fourth in the Proud Man and then third in the FSS Dr. Fager and fifth in the FSS Affirmed. Regular pilot Jose Morelos must work out a trip from the far outside post, and this one's midpack style indicates a wide trip almost assured. Tough to back off last and the draw.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
KHOZALITE is proven over the track, the class level and around 2 turns. Hard to see him giving away his inside advantage and not being in the mix Saturday.

Best Longshot Contender:
STRATEGIC RISK has a chance to turn the tables with additional distance. Consider him for a share if not convinced he can upset the entire cast.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 exacta part-wheel KHOZALITE with PROST and ROGER THAT DANA ($80). $20 exacta KHOZALITE over STRATEGIC RISK.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:06 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special

Equibase Special - Race 1	Leg 1 of the Tropical Turf Pick 3
Optional Claiming $62,500 • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 100 • Purse: $58,000 • Post: 3:17P
GP-R7 - (RAIL AT 17 FEET). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 29, 2025 OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $62,500(CONDITION ELIGIBILITY). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND SEVENTY YARDS)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. QUEREME PASS (ARG) is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * QUEREME PASS (ARG): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in th e top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THEMANUPFRONT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
1	QUEREME PASS (ARG)	9/2	3/1
6	THEMANUPFRONT	8/1	9/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	QUEREME PASS (ARG)	1	9/2	Front-runner	100	98	89.4	91.8	82.3
6	THEMANUPFRONT	6	8/1	Front-runner	105	101	84.6	79.8	70.8
2	ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA	2	6/1	Front-runner	102	89	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	EYES ON THE KING	7	5/2	Front-runner	106	92	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	SPIRIT PRINCE	3	2/1	Stalker	103	102	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	SPIRITINTHENIGHT	5	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	83	67.8	80.6	68.1
4	DUNEDIN	4	15/1	Trailer	102	88	63.0	89.3	79.3
8	PALAZZI	8	6/1	Trailer	107	103	0.0	0.0	0.0

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:06 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

Aqueduct - Race 1	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 1 &2, Pick 3 ($1) (1-3) Early Pick 5 (.50) (1-5)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 76 • Purse: $85,000 • Post: 11:40
(UP TO $14,790 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. FOR THE LADIES is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FOR THE LADIES: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. JUST TELL ANNE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
1	FOR THE LADIES	6/5	3/2
3	JUST TELL ANNE	6/1	9/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FOR THE LADIES	1	6/5	Front-runner	77	70	97.6	66.4	63.4
3	JUST TELL ANNE	3	6/1	Stalker	88	72	57.8	65.4	61.9
4	IT'S CAROL'S WAY	4	8/1	Trailer	77	66	71.1	53.3	47.8

Unknown Running Style: SHE'S ALL CLOVER (9/2) [Jockey: Carmouche Kendrick - Trainer: Pletcher Todd A], RAGE BAIT (8/5) [Jockey: Franco Manuel - Trainer: Maker Michael J].

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:07 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Handicap - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 102

THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. PURSE $100,000 FREE NOMINATION BY THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20. WEIGHTS: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21. NO FEE TO ENTER. SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS WILL BE WEIGHTED AT TIME OF ENTRY. PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO HIGHWEIGHTS. EQUAL WEIGHT PREFERENCE WILL BE DETERMINED BY TOTAL EARNINGS IN 2025.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 PRIVATE THOUGHTS 8/5
# 5 PREVENT 9/5
# 3 BRAWN 10/1

I like PRIVATE THOUGHTS here. Hard to pass on this gelding with Zayas in the irons. Earned a reliable speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest. Is hard not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been competitive - 93 avg - of late. PREVENT - With a solid 91 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 99 speed rating recorded in his last outing. BRAWN - He has been moving quite well lately while recording strong speed figures.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:07 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Del Mar - Race #10 - Post: 4:02pm - Optional Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $61,000 Class Rating: 109

Rating:

#5 TESSUTO (ML=8/1)
#2 TEJON PASS (ML=20/1)
#10 COMEDY TOWN (ML=5/1)

TESSUTO - Smith is back for another race today after sitting atop this horse for the 1st attempt on August 9th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. TEJON PASS - Popular angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Today's the day. I know the outfit is serious today. The colt gets Lasix for the first time. COMEDY TOWN - This racer coming off a strong effort in the last month or so is a win candidate in my humble opinion. This gelding earned a good figure of 106 in his last affair. That speed rating should be good enough to score today. A solid handicapping angle is getting Lasix for the first time. Mullins gives it to this one for this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MADAKET ROAD (ML=8/5), #1 SPEEDY WILSON (ML=6/1), #4 GHAZAALY (ML=8/1),

MADAKET ROAD - I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Long layoff and no drop in level of competition. Would have to perk up off that fifth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here. Finished fifth in his most recent effort with a run-of-the-mill speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this field. SPEEDY WILSON - Hasn't been close to winning at all of late. Earned a most unsatisfactory speed figure last time around the track in a $50,000 Optional Claiming race on October 12th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig. GHAZAALY - When you keep going back through the TrackMaster past performances and don't see a victory recently, you have to say to yourself, 'Not worth it on this horse'.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 TESSUTO to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with [2,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,5,10] with [2,5,10] with [1,2,5,8,10] with [1,2,5,8,10] Total Cost: $36

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:07 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #7 - Post: 10:02pm - Allowance - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,700 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#1 BOLD DESERT (ML=5/1)
#3 BLESSINGS BESTOWED (ML=12/1)

BOLD DESERT - When this jock and conditioner are put together you have to take a look. Peltroche and Johnson have been fabulous together. I really like that recent race on Nov 5th at Charles Town where he ran third. BLESSINGS BESTOWED - I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This gelding fits the bill. This early speed horse could take the lead quickly. My guess is he'll take a shot at bolting out of the gate, and never looking back. This gelding has run pretty well on the turf. Often that form translates to success at a track like this where the turns are sharp.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MAGICAL SURPRISE (ML=5/2), #7 SHARPASADIAMOND (ML=3/1), #4 ROAD MINISTER (ML=4/1),

MAGICAL SURPRISE - Tough to support since I think a 'bounce' is in the works this time. SHARPASADIAMOND - This entrant ran a mediocre speed figure last time out. He shouldn't run better and will probably get beat today running that number. ROAD MINISTER - Tough to keep chasing this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BLESSINGS BESTOWED - At first glance the last race doesn't look that good, but upon further inspection that race fits right with this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 BOLD DESERT is going to be the play if we are getting 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:08 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 95

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR ACCREDITED LOUISIANA BRED THREE YEAR OLD QUARTER HORSES WHO REMAIN ELIGIBLE AND MADE THE FINAL ENTRY PAYMENT TO THE 2025 LQHBA BREEDERS DERBY, OR BY SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION. WEIGHT: 126 LBS. $850 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. ALL ENTRY PAYMENTS MUST BE ON ACCOUNT WITH THE HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER PRIOR TO 10:30 A.M. ON THE MORNING OF ENTRIES. LATE SUPPLEMENT AT

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 GOLD GUN Z 1/1
# 2 XDW JESS A ROGUE 5/1
# 4 SAN LORENZO CHROME 8/5

My selection for this event is GOLD GUN Z. He looks solid in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Has decent Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. Is a sharp contender based on figures recorded lately under today's conditions. XDW JESS A ROGUE - Is difficult not to consider based on speed figures which have been respectable - 82 avg - of late. When this rider and handler team up, gamblers often make money. SAN LORENZO CHROME - He ought to be given a shot given the very good speed numbers. Has to be given consideration in here if only for the very good speed figure put up in the last contest.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:08 PM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 6:25 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$8000 - FILLIES & MARES - N/W $2660 LAST 4 STARTS

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 7 WAITINONAWOMAN 3/1
# 5 THIS GIRL RULES 2/1
# 6 PREMIER DELIGHT 9/2

If you want a great play in here, feast your eyes on WAITINONAWOMAN. The handicapping group noted a very compelling event out of this solid standardbred last time. Hoping for a duplicate of that to end up in the winner's circle. Don't let a race horse with such a very compelling winning figure like this be ignored. When Ryan drives this interesting entrant you can bet they'll be in the top 3, percentages show them there 66 percent of the time. THIS GIRL RULES - Many race players know speed is is such an important factor. This entrant has credentials with a 73 average figure. You have to love a horse that likes to win, very high win pct. PREMIER DELIGHT - Sometimes you just have to go with good vibrations, back this one's chances.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:08 PM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Hoosier Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 13
5	5	HELPFIRSTEDITION	2/1	De Long, John - 18	613.67
4	4	A REAL LEGEND	9/2	Oosting, Michael - 13	588.42
6	6	LATE NITE HAWK	5/1	Miller, Marcus - 15	586.06
7	7	FLIRTNWITHTHEPILOT	20/1	Wrenn, Peter - 14	582.16
2	2	SEVEN SINS	5/1	Tetrick, Trace - 22	575.86
9	9	CS FLYING CO-PILOT	9/1	Coy, Clint - 7	572.99
3	3	LAND OF FREEDOM	12/1	Ross, Jordan - 12	540.93
1	1	TOY'S FOR YOU	15/1	Plano, Rick - 14	535.37
8	8	FAMOUS FATHER	5/1	Plano, Luke - 7	533.75

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:08 PM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Meadowlands

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 3
4	4	BOBBY G	7/2	Bongiorno, Joe - 16	474.37
10	10	MANSERTIVE	15/1	Dauplaise, Jeff - 4	473.55
3	3	MASTER MIKI	3/1	Miller, Tyler - 8	471.52
7	7	SELECT FRIDAY	12/1	Kennedy, James - 10	470.25
5	5	JONAH	10/1	Herschberger, Mark - 12	467.31
6	6	PARKLANE TERROR	8/1	Ginsburg, Vincent - 8	462.25
9	9	CRUNCHY	20/1	Ahle, Johnathan - 10	447.33
1	1	MEET THE CREEPER	6/1	Chiodo, Stacy - 6	444.25
2	2	ITHACA HANOVER	6/1	Beckwith, Brett - 15	432.62
8	8	URBAN RENEWAL	9/2	Boyd, Braxten - 12	429.45

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:08 PM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Post: 6:38 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 65 - Purse:$7300 - NW 3 RACES OR 20,000 LIFETIME

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 CATITUDE 6/1
# 2 WORLDSGREATESTSIN 2/1
# 4 MAJESTIC PRINCE 10/1

CATITUDE looks to be our best wagering option in this competition. One of the finest win statistics with this driver-trainer make this gelding dangerous. Extremely profitable driver-handler combo, with a 5 ROI when working with one another. Fans should always give a second look to horses beginning from the 6 slot as the ROI is much better than the expected average. WORLDSGREATESTSIN - Good for a win wager just off the outstanding prior class numbers. Have to like this fine animal. This harness racer and Campbell have some sort of connection going. In the money pct for this combo is high. MAJESTIC PRINCE - This affair could very well be controlled by this horse. One look at the avgerage TrackMaster SR will confirm that. There is a good probability that this standardbred will improve with the medication change with first time Lasix.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:09 PM

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 29

Nov. 28, 2025

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (1) Glow of a Rose broke slowly in her debut and finished third. Makes amends today. (8) Sticker Shock was an even third in her first start and could be the main threat. (3) Dancin in Old Town will be closing fast at the end. (7) Bisclavret may welcome a switch to dirt. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-8.

3rd race – (12) Presumptuous tired and faded to fifth in her debut. Adds blinkers and gets Gaffalione and should take a step forward. (2) No Time Left showed promise in a claimer. (5) Powered by Family is an interesting firster. (8) Noble Glow could also shine in her debut. Betting strategy: 12 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-8-12. Doubles: 2-5-8-12 with 1-5-6.

4th race – (6) Boyd was highly impressive in his debut and will be hard to beat here. (5) Stradale showed his potential in a maiden win and will be the main rival. (1) Gallivant cannot be ignored from the rail. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6.

8th race – (6) A Fine Chardonnay has won both of her starts – including her debut here – and should thrive with the added distance. (7) On Time Girl was second to the top pick and should be the main foe again. (8) Go to Girl will welcome the turnback to a sprint. (3) Woodstock cannot be ignored in this field. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6-7-8.

10th race – (6) Further Ado will probably bounce off a huge maiden win but has such a speed figure edge he can do that and still win. (7) Universe was a good second in the Grade 3 Street Sense and seems the biggest threat. (5) Very Connected should be gaining ground in the final furlong. (2) Cherokee Nation ships in for Baffert and deserves consideration. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-6-7.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:10 PM

Aqueduct Hotlist - November 29

Nov. 28, 2025

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1^st race [Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (1) For the Ladies (A) set the pace for a trainer who does not win with debut runners very often and was second by a nose well clear of the rest of the nine-horse field. (2) She’s All Clover is a first-time starter, Calumet Farm home-bred from a mare who produced four winners, showing a bullet work for Todd Pletcher. (3) Just Tell Anne moves from turf to dirt with a third-place finish two weeks ago when she had to check after clipping heels. (5) Rage Bait is a debut runner for Mike Maker who just had a fast bullet work at Belmont Park.

3^rd race [NY, OC 45k/N2X, 1 1/8 mi] – (5) Hello Beauty (C) was bet down from 6-1 to 5-2, rallied from seventh to second in a first-level allowance, and now moves from turf to dirt when running in the next condition up. (7) Higher Force won the first-level allowance last month with a front-end effort. (1) Lika Rolling Stone had been racing against open company and doing well and then moved back to the NY-bred allowance to win going a mile after pressing the pace. (3) Fast and Frisky won at this condition in June at Aqueduct and gets in here with the $45,000 claiming option.

4^th race [Alw 50000s, 6F] – (2) Looks First (B) broke last, was rank under restraint, and climbed from kickback to finish fourth. (1) Hue moves from turf to dirt where he actually broke his maiden at Saratoga in 2024. Last seen she was a close third in a turf sprint starter allowance last month. (3) Kadena had a pair of seconds at Saratoga this summer. (7) Sassy Princess was claimed from an almost 12-length victory last week at Aqueduct for $17,500.

10^th race [NY, Alw 81000 N1X, 1 mi] – (3) Undisputed (C) took late money to change his odds from 9-2 to 3-1 and rallied wide to finish second. (9) Unbroken Chain (C) was bet down from 11-1 to 7-1, pressed the pace, went four-wide, got to the lead, but ended up third while racing against open company, and got claimed for $30,000. (4) Mozambique was second in a starter allowance last month after a maiden win against state-breds. (8) Moe Eighty Eight moves from grass to dirt where at Saratoga he was third in a NY-bred stakes race.

Best bets: For the Ladies (1^st); Hello Beauty (3^rd). Best Value: Looks First (4^th); Undisputed (10^th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 2-4 ? 1 with 1, 3, 5, 7 with 1, 2, 3, 7 = $16.

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(1)	For the Ladies	A on 10/5	1	Set the pace and just missed the win in her debut.
(5)	Hello Beauty	C on 11/9	3	Finished second in a first-level allowance.
(2)	Looks First	B on 11/21	4	Broke last and was rank under restraint.
(3)	Undisputed	C on 10/5	10	Rallied wide to finish second.
(9)	Unbroken Chain	C on 11/7	10	Got to the lead and finished third against open company.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:10 PM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 29, 2025

Nov. 28, 2025

Race 11 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, November 29 | Post Time 5:54 PM Eastern

Golden Rod Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One-Sixteenth | Fillies, Two Years Old

Top win contenders are Just Singing (3), Life of Joy (6)

Contenders for second exactas: Explora (12), The Grumpy Rabbit (13)

Just Singing (3) and Life of Joy (6) have about the same probability of winning at about 25% each. Just Singing and Life of Joy both won at Churchill Downs in their last races at this distance on October 26. They ran the same time (1:45.6) and earned similar 84 and 85 Equibase Speed Figures. But, while Life of Joy earned her win in the Rags To Riches Stakes, Just Singing won a maiden race and will have higher odds.

Just Singing and Life of Joy won their races, rallying from the back, and this race in the year’s Golden Rod should have a fast pace in this, because of four “early pace” horses: Essential Coffee (2), Letmecouttheways (5), Rasberry (7), and Coco Connect (10).

Just Singing and Life of Joy have not lost velocity in the final three-eighths, which is compared to most horses, and as evidenced by Life Joy running 36 mph (using GPS) from three-quarters to the last eighth, and 35 mph from the eighth to the finish. Compared to Just Singing, who ran better at 37 mph from the three-quarters mark to the finish. That makes them the best finishers and the two top win contenders.

As to Explora (12) and The Grumpy Rabbit (13), both have possible poor post positions. They need to get ahead before the first turn or go wide. Explora won the Grade 2 Oak Leaf Stakes on October 4 and finished second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Juvenile Filly Stakes in November, with the highest 99 Equibase Figures among the field. Grumpy Rabbit led the Rags to Riches Stakes, but she had no chance against Life of Joy when she kicked away. Still, Grumpy Rabbit was three lengths ahead of the third horse.

Win Bets:

Just Singing (3) and Life of Joy (6) are both considered winning bets at 3 or 1 or higher.

Exacta:

Just Singing (3) and Life of Joy (6) over Just Singing (3), Life of Joy (6), Explora (12), and The Grumpy Rabbit (13)

Saturday 11/29/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 11/29/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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