12-26-11

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Missouri –6 over North Carolina

Larry Fedora was recently introduced as North Carolina's new head coach and a coaching change often serves as a distraction during bowl preparations. The Tar Heels also have a slew of highly-regarded NFL draft prospects who could be prone to losing focus and it appears as though they’ve already lost some of that focus down the stretch with four losses in their last six games. By contrast, Missouri won three in a row to close out the season and they also have some very credible games on its résumé. The Tigers beat then #16 Texas and then #16 again Texas A&M while losing to some other highly ranked schools. The Tigers five losses came against #19 Oklahoma (38-28), #15 Baylor by three, #3 Oklahoma State, #11 K-State (24-17) and Arizona St in OT in week 2. One could argue that the Tigers did not have a bad loss all season. The Tar Heels schedule included three games against ranked teams. They lost them all and their last three wins came against Duke, Wake and Louisville. The Tigers had a much tougher schedule, they’re in better form and after playing the high-octane teams from the Big-12 and not looking a bit out of place, this one could appear in slow motion for them. Play: Missouri –6 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Turner Systems Dec. 26
NHL Minn. -1.5 +220
Nash +120
NCAA Foot Mizz over 52
NFL Foot N Orl over 52
NBA Orl under 200

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
5* Over 52.5 North Carolina vs. Missouri (Monday @ 5pm est)

[Mr. IWS]

DOC Sports

Take North Carolina State Wolfpack (pk) over Louisville Cardinals (Belk Bowl Tuesday, Dec. 27 8 p.m. ESPN) Magnificent 7 Game.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +131 over CLEVELAND

Toronto has finally come to grips with reality. No longer are the Raps delusional about loading up on mediocre veterans with long-term deals, nor about winning games without bothering to play defense. With Toronto again last in defensive efficiency in 2010-11, the overmatched Jay Triano was finally shown the door. Replacing him is former Dallas zone defense whiz Dwane Casey, who now must upgrade one of the most historically weak defensive units. With Casey’s signature and attention to detail, expect the Raps to be scrappy, if nothing else. Jose Calderon is a competent offensive operator and he has enough shooters to dish to. Guys like DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis, Amir Johnson, James Johnson and Andrea Bargnani are capable of scoring 15-20 a game. As for Cleveland, things are better than a year ago. Slowly but surely the Cavs are rebuilding their future and cleaning up their salary cap issues. Top draft choice Kyrie Irving is a nice building block. Fourth overall pick Tristan Thompson will combine with a healthy Anderson Varejao to contribute some energetic defense, rebounding and finishing in the frontcourt. At forward, the Cavs triggered a sweet deal before the lockout by trading J.J. Hickson to Sacramento for Omri Casspi and a first-round pick. At the other forward spot, Antawn Jamison will score 18 points a game and give up 27 until he's traded or bought out, which should be soon, given his advanced age, huge expiring contract and his indifference to playing defense. Both teams are building but the Raps have the deeper bench and better shooters and they have a good chance to open the season with a win. Play: Toronto +131 (Risking 2 units).


Philadelphia +160 over PORTLAND

While everyone is talking Miami, Chicago and New York, the 76ers have been left out of the conversation but they shouldn’t be. The limited practice time before opening day is going to favor teams with continuity and the Sixers are positioned well. The likely nine-man playing rotation will be identical to last season's. Philly sports a fair number of young players who should play better this season, most notably point guard Jrue Holiday and wing Evan Turner. Add Thaddeus Young, Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala and Jodie Meeks into the equation with Doug Collins in his second year and the 76ers could be as high as a #4 seed when playoff time rolls around. Portland had one of the worst first days of training camp in recent memory. Within the span of a few hours, the Blazers found out Brandon Roy had to retire, Greg Oden would hardly play this season and LaMarcus Aldridge was suffering from a heart problem. Presuming this is the last of the bad news (which is never a safe assumption with this team), the Blazers have enough talent to overcome some of this but don’t expect them to come out of the gate blazing, as an adjustment period is inevitable and morale can’t be too high either. Play: Philadelphia +160 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

*** MARK LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK ***

•NEW ORLEANS OVER ATLANTA 6
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Now that all the presents have been opened, the eggnog drank and Santa has headed back to the North Pole, it’s on to Monday night football and finally a game worth tuning in. After watching the likes of Jacksonville and St. Louis go through the motions, and grimacing at the sight of a hobbled, one-legged, Ben Roethlisberger the last three Mondays, we finally have a matchup we can sink our teeth into this week… or do we? From a handicapping perspective, the Falcons have failed miserably under the Monday night lights when facing a winning foe, going 1-12 SU and ATS. On the flip side, the Saints are just 2-8 ATS on Mondays against .333 or greater division opposition. Add in New Orleans’ ghastly 3-23 ATS record as division home chalk of more than 5 points and suddenly this is turning into an ugly-fest. Saving grace is Sean Payton’s 9-1 SU and ATS mark in games off back-to-back wins when taking on an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Atlanta quickly counters with a 7-0 ATS record in Last Road Games, to go with a sterling 16-2-1 ATS road dog log when playing with revenge (Falcons dropped a 26-23 decision at home in overtime to the Saints in which Atlanta won the stats by 123 yards) when taking on a foe off a non-division game. Like the gifts under the tree, there’s a lot to sort though, for sure. We’ll re-visit this after Santa’s helpers have arrived.
__________________________________________________ __________________

•INDEPENDENCE BOWL
MISSOURI OVER N CAROLINA by 1
------------------------------
Apparently eight isn’t enough for the North Carolina hierarchy – at least when it comes to interim head coach Everett Withers. Hired just over a month before the start of the 2011 season, Withers is one win away from duplicating Butch Davis’ 8-5 record each of the past three seasons. If Davis hadn’t got canned for improper benefits and academic misconduct violations, doesn’t history suggest he would have survived another 8-5 season? That’s not the case for Withers… though he will get another game on his head coaching resumé before heading to Columbus and joining Urban Meyer’s Ohio State staff. While this could be a case of the Tar Heel seniors wanting to send out Withers on a high note (he has been the defensive coordinator since 2008), our PLAYBOOK.com database calls this more of an anti-Missouri play. Not only are Big 12 bowl favorites off a win of 8 or more points a small 0-9 ATS, but the Tigers, themselves, are just 9-16 ATS versus bowl teams over the last four seasons. Couple that with UNC’s 6-2-1 ATS log as bowlers since 1992 and Mizzou supporters may not get a friendly send-off in their 108th and fi nal season in the league as they bolt the Big 12 for the SEC Conference. In a matchup of ‘win one for the skipper’ – or cash one for the conference – there’s no ‘I’ in conference. Look for the Tar Heels to team up for the cover… and maybe even the outright victory.

[Mr. IWS]

*** NELLY'S SPORTSLINE ***

•NEW ORLEANS OVER ATLANTA by 3
_______________________________

•INDEPENDENCE BOWL UNC BY 3
----------------------------
Missouri won its final three games of the season to get into this game and all five losses came against bowl teams. The Tigers have wins over Texas A&M, Texas, and Texas Tech and statistically this team out-gained foes by over 90 yards per game despite being just 7-5. North Carolina lost four of the final six games of the season and is now in an awkward situation with Southern Miss Coach Fedora hired but current Everett Withers taking the team to the bowl. The Tar Heel defense never quite lived up to expectations this season but still has excellent numbers against the run, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. Missouri is one of the top rushing teams in the nation, posting 237 yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry so something will have to give. Both teams are led by sophomore QBs that have had great seasons though there have been a few turnover filled games. UNC has played in nail-biter bowl games the last three years and they should rally behind Withers in his last game. Missouri has been a no show as bowl favorites the last two years and the Tigers have been too inconsistent to trust.

RATING 2: North Carolina (+4½) over Missouri

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Rickenbach

CFB 10* Mizzou
NFL 10* Atlanta Falcons
NBA 10* Houston Rockets
NHL 10* St. louis Blues Over

Tuesday Football
CFB 8* Purdue Over
CFB 8* NC State Under

[Mr. IWS]

*** WINNING POINTS ***

•NEW ORLEANS OVER ATLANTA by 8
-------------------------------
New Orleans has defeated Atlanta nine of 11 times during the Sean Payton era, but has gone just 6-5 ATS. The Saints nipped the Falcons, 26-23, in overtime in Week 10. The Falcons outgained the Saints and won time of possession, but a bonehead decision by Mike Smith to go for it on fourth-down on his own 29 in overtime proved costly. Both teams are off easy victories, but the Falcons are 3-6-1 ATS following a win although they have a few extra days rest having dispatched Jacksonville last Thursday. Drew Brees has fired 16 touchdown passes without an interception in his last five games. The Saints average 40 points at home, yielding just seven sacks and three interceptions in six games at the Superdome.

NEW ORLEANS 31, ATLANTA 23
_____________________________

•INDEPENDENCE BOWL
MISSOURI OVER NORTH CAROLINA by 7
----------------------------------
Meanwhile Larry Fedora’s future roster at North Carolina also has some transitions to work through, with interim HC Everett Withers likely on his way to join Urban Meyer at Ohio State, and the rest of the Tar Heel assistants out job-hunting. And that is also not an easy way to prepare for a bowl game, providing far too many distractions for a team that has been playing under a cloud ever since Butch Davis was told to clear out his office before the season started. The question is whether or not Missouri brings the polish to take advantage in this spread range. The talent gap is closer than the line, so many of those Carolina distractions are already market factors. The Tigers fought hard to get to 7-5 against one of the nation’s tougher schedules, playing five road games against bowl opponents, and while there is not a weakness that can be exploited, there is also not a dominating strength. QB James Franklin does bring a mobility that will cause the Tar Heel pass rush some problems, and the Mizzou offense did not skip a beat when leading rusher Henry Josey went down, but they went just 1-4 ATS as favorites this season, and even against a possibly listless foe will not get this one easily.

MISSOURI 30, NORTH CAROLINA 23
_______________________________

MONDAY, 12/26/11 NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
_________________________________________________

•Washington over New Jersey by 2 - John Wall is poised for a breakout season, but Flip Saunders has yet to show he has a grasp on his immature Wizards. The Nets, however, have failed to cover in their last four trips to New Jersey and have been in a state of flux n with rumors of big signings. WASHINGTON 94-92.

*3-STAR BEST BET Milwaukee over Charlotte by 9
-----------------------------------------------
Stephen Jackson still has the capability of taking over games and he’ll be psyched for this one against his former Charlotte teammates. A finally healthy Andrew Bogut and Jackson make the Bucks a more potent offensive team to go with Scott Skiles’ hardnosed defensive mentality. Brandon Jennings should come up big, too, at point guard against defensively-challenged D.J. Augustine. MILWAUKEE 95-86.

•Houston over *Orlando by 2 - The Rockets have covered in seven of their last nine meetings in Orlando and draw the Magic playing for the second time in 48 hours. The Magic have problems at small forward and back-up center. HOUSTON 102-100.

•Toronto over Cleveland by 2 - Toronto has been the worst defensive team during the past two seasons, but the Cavaliers finished last season going under during their last 11 home games. Toronto also went under during its last five games so that may be the way to look as new Raptors coach Dwane Casey is a defensive guru. TORONTO 89-87.

•Indiana over Detroit by 9 - It’s hard to envision the Pistons suffering as many injuries as they did last season. Still, the Pacers are the more solid club. New additions David West and George Hill elevate Indiana past Detroit. The Pacers have had Detroit’s number, too, covering nine of the last 12 meetings while going 6-1 ATS at home versus the Pistons. INDIANA 99-90.

•Oklahoma City over Minnesota by 17 - Don’t look for a successful debut from Rick Adelman. He inherits a Timberwolves squad devoid of chemistry and defense. Ricky Rubio may put some extra fans in the stands, but he’s going to have problems scoring against NBA-caliber defenses. Scoring won’t be a problem for Kevin Durant operating against a defense that was the league’s worst last season allowing 107.7 points per game. The Thunder closed out last season on a 12-5-1 covering run. OKLAHOMA CITY 111-94.

*3-STAR BEST BET Denver over Dallas by 5
-----------------------------------------
Dallas is going to be overpriced coming off its championship season. The Nuggets were one of the hottest teams down the stretch after trading Carmelo Anthony going 18-7 following that deal. The Nuggets also are 19-7 in their last 26 road contests and have covered eight of the past nine times in Dallas. The Nuggets fortified their backcourt bringing in Rudy Fernandez and Andre Miller. The Mavericks are going to take it easy in back-to-back games with 38-year-old Jason Kidd. DENVER 107-102.

•San Antonio over Memphis by 4 - The Spurs have enough backcourt scoring with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to get past the Grizzlies. It wasn’t a fluke, though, that the Grizzlies eliminated the Spurs in the postseason. Memphis has the size and youth to bother the Spurs again. SAN ANTONIO 101-97.

•Phoenix over New Orleans by 10 - No Chris Paul nor David West means not enough scoring for the Hornets to keep up with Phoenix. The Suns should be sharp early while Steve Nash and Grant Hill are still fresh. PHOENIX 103-93.

•Los Angeles Lakers over Sacramento by 6 - If the Lakers are still fretting about not getting Chris Paul, or finding a replacement for Lamar Odom, they could find themselves in a tough spot. The Kings are going to be up and down, but have three potential stars in former Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins and Marcus Thornton, who averaged 21.3 points per contest during the final 27 games last season. LA LAKERS 101-95.

•Portland over Philadelphia by 4 - Philadelphia has found pointspread success at the Rose Garden covering in seven of its last 10 visits. Portland is breaking in a new backcourt with Andre Miller traded and Brandon Roy announcing his retirement. That could mean a faster pace game, which is the preferred style for Andre Iguodala. PORTLAND 104-100.

•Chicago over Golden State by 4 - The Bulls may face a letdown spot after their marquee opening night matchup versus the Lakers. Golden State has covered at home seven of the past nine times against Chicago. The Warriors have limited talent, but retain their explosive backcourt of Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry. CHICAGO 111-107.

[Mr. IWS]

*** PLATINUM SHEET ***

(131) ATLANTA (SU: 9-5, ATS: 6-6) at (132) NEW ORLEANS (SU: 11-3, ATS: 10-4)
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Game Breakdown: These teams have played three straight games decided by a field goal, including Atlanta’s overtime win in New Orleans last season (which came courtesy of a 29-yard overtime miss by Saints K Garrett Hartley). Atlanta is coming off back-to-back wins and its passing game is clicking now that they’re finally healthy. The Falcons will likely rely on RB Michael Turner again (102.3 YPG vs. Saints the last three seasons). The Saints should be able to beat Atlanta’s mediocre secondary. QB Drew Brees has surpassed 300 yards in his last three games
against the Falcons.

STATFOX FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 28, ATLANTA 21
_____________________________________________

•INDEPENDENCE BOWL
-------------------
Missouri looks for a fourth straight victory facing slumping North Carolina, which has lost four of six games. The Tigers’ best player, Big 12 leading rusher Henry Josey, is out for the season, and UNC has a stellar run defense, allowing only 93 rush YPG in the past six contests. But Missouri QB James Franklin has been a huge ground gainer with 839 yards and 13 TD. He has also thrown for 20 TD with just 10 INT. Carolina QB Bryn Renner (69% completions, 23 TD and 12 INT) should be able to throw on Missouri’s weak pass defense (247 YPG, 91st in FBS) that has allowed 300+ yards in half of its games.

STATFOX FORECAST: N CAROLINA 27, MISSOURI 26

[Mr. IWS]

*** MARK LAWRENCE MIDWEEK ALERT ***

•N CAROLINA OVER MISSOURI by 6
-------------------------------
Nothing could be finer than to be in Carolina this time of the football season. After all, the NFL Panthers are en route to tripling last year’s win total while the ACC’s Tar Heels and Wolfpack are both bowl bound. For UNC, it’s out with an interim and in with a new head coach when Everett Withers calls the shots for the final time on the sidelines before handing the keys over to Larry Fedora. And a win today would equal the same eight victories recorded by the team each of the previous three seasons under former head coach Butch Davis. Before skipping off to Columbus to join Ohio State’s urban renewal project as the Buckeyes’ new defensive coordinator, Withers has the full admiration and respect of this year’s squad.

RB Giovani Bernard said the Independence Bowl game has a lot more meaning than meets the eye. “It’s a big thing,” Bernard said. “It’s for Coach Withers and everyone on this staff and team. It would be special for them to go out with a win.” QB Bryn Renner feels the same saying, “We’ve had a great couple practices through exams. I think we’re ready to play for this staff and these seniors and send them out on a good note.” Meanwhile, the perfect fodder arrives in Missouri from the defensively depleted Big 12, a team that is just 9-16 ATS in games against bowlers the past four seasons. That’s because Big 12 bowl favorites who own an equal or greater win percentage than their opponents are 2-6 SU and 0-8 ATS when entering off a season-ending win of 14 or more points. The Heels win one for the skipper today.

[Mr. IWS]

*** POINTWISE ***

•MONDAY, DECEMBER 26th NBA PREDICTIONS
---------------------------------------
(7:05) New Jersey Nets 98 - WASHINGTON 94
(7:05) Milwaukee Bucks 102 - CHARLOTTE 'CATS 95
(7:05) ORLANDO MAGIC 106 - Houston 94 (NBA)
(7:05) Toronto Raptors 115 - CLEVELAND CAVS 111
(7:05) INDIANA PACERS 97 - Detroit Pistons 89
(8:05) Oklahoma City Thunder 114 - MINNESOTA 107
(8:35) DALLAS MAVERICKS 106 - Denver Nuggets 105
(8:35) SAN ANTONIO SPURS 105 - Memphis Grizzlies 97
(9:05) PHOENIX SUNS 121 - New Orleans Hornets 108
(10:05) LA Lakers 112 - SACRAMENTO 99 (NBA)
(10:05) PORTLAND BLAZERS 96 - Philadelphia Sixers 92
(10:35) Chicago Bulls 107 - GOLDEN ST WARRIORS 99

BEST BETS: ORLANDO, DENVER (4), PHOENIX (2), PHILADELPHIA
__________________________________________________ _________

•MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
NEW ORLEANS 30 - ATLANTA 27
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Those are the scores in the last 4 matches between these 2. Everyone remembers their 1st meeting this season, when the Falcons went for an ill-advised FD deep in their own territory in eventual OT loss. Saints are amazing. On a 6-0 SU/ATS run, with Brees continuing his excellence, throwing for another 412 yds & 5 TDs in rout of Minny (36-12 FD edge). Now at 4,780 yds & 37/10. Falcs' Ryan: 7 TDs last 2 wks, & that Atlanta "D" has held 7 of last 9 foes under 18 pts. Falcs are 1-11 ATS as Dec dogs off a SU win. But the Saints are 2-14 ATS as division HFs of 7+ pts.
________________

•INDEPENDENCE BOWL
-------------------
A pair squads who are no bowl novices, as the Tigers of Missouri appear in their 7th straight holiday classic, while this makes it 4 straight for the Tar Heels of NorthCarolina. As a matter of fact, this the Tars' first 4-game bowl streak since a 7-year run from '92 thru '98. And talk about your nail biters, the last 3 years have seen Carolina losing 31-30 & 19-17, while winning 30-27 (OT). A year ago, in the Music City, 'Heels (-2) were recipients of highly questionable officiating, which allowed them to tie Tennessee on a last-second FG, forcing OT. They lost QB Yates, but Renner has been among the leaders in passing efficiency all year, finishing with 2,769 yds, & 69% (23/12). RB Bernard set a NC frosh record with 1,222 RYs (first 'Heel to reach 1,000 RYs since '97), & WR Jones checks in with 1,119 yds & 11 TDs.

Defensively, NC ranks a solid 39th overall, & 13th vs the run, allowing only 1 team (GaTech) to top 170 RYs. Last year, Mizzou set a team record with 6 straight bowl appearances, so this extends that streak. This season, they own an enviably balanced attack, as can be seen above, with QB Franklin at 2,733 PYs (10/10), & also 839 RYs (13 TDs). But they've lost their electrifying RB Josey (knee vs Texas), who was an awesome 8.1 ypr. Despite their impressive stats, the Tigs have been among the most inconsistent of squads this year, with covers of 10½, 19, 17½, & 13 pts, but losses of 10½, 15, 14, & 11½, not covering as a chalk since Oct 15. Thus, the dog is 8-3 ATS in Mizzou tilts TY. Ditto in Tiger bowl games, with the pup at 5-1 ATS. And MO has lost its last 3 bowls by 6, 28½, 6 pts ATS. To say that neither team can be trusted would be an understatement. A dog play.

PROPHECY: NORTH CAROLINA 33 - MISSOURI 30 RATING: 3-STAR

[Mr. IWS]

CHEERS MASTER RELEASE CONFIDENTIAL
December 25, 2011. USA Issue #7.
Record: NFL 2/1, CBB 7/0, CFB 1/1
Double Dime players are up $15,600.00
Cost of CMRC service...Free

[Mr. IWS]

Andre Gomes | NBA Total

double-dime bet 708 CLE / 707 TOR Under 197.0 5dimes

Projected line: 190 points

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Monday December 26, 2011 (5:00PM ET)

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Missouri Tigers

The Missouri Tigers (7-5, 6-6 ATS) will look to put an end to their two-game bowl losing streak when they match up with the North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5, 6-6 ATS) in the Independence Bowl; kick-off from Independence Stadium in Shreveport, LA is set to go live on ESPN2 & ESPN3.com starting at 5:00 ET.

With all the BS that went down within the UNC program last season and leading up to the 2011-12 campaign under former head coach Butch Davis watch, just qualifying for a bowl this year speaks volumes about the gridiron talent stockpiled in Chapel Hill. UNC looked as if it was going to compete for top honors within the Coastal Division at the outset of the season after beating the likes of James Madison, Rutgers, and Virginia. Though it came up just short of beating the Yellow Jackets in Week 4, the Tar Heels still went on to take care of business against East Carolina, and Louisville the next two weeks. That's where the fun stopped however, as the Heels went on to drop four of their last six games which included sickening outright defeats to both Miami (30-24) and NC State (13-0). They did however close the year with a pair of ATS covers sticking within the number in a 24-21 defeat at Virginia Tech (+10) before covering the 13.5-point spread at home against Duke in their regular season finale.

It was an off year for the folks in Columbia who saw their squad rattle off 10 wins just a short season ago. That said, head coach Gary Pinkels squad lost tons of talent from last years squad on the defensive side of the ball and injuries plagued the roster throughout the season's entirety. So even though the offense surpassed its scoring average from year ago (#33 at 32.2 PPG), the defense gave up an average of 7.4 more points per game this season. That in and of itself is the main reason why Mizzou found itself on the short end of the scoreboard in most of their tightly contested battles. Their 38-31 outright win at Texas A&M remains the seasons lone highlight, and the Tigers showed they just didn't have what it took to hang with the big boys falling to the likes of Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor by an average of 10.25 PPG. Theyll enter this evenings spot losers in three of their L/4 against the closing pointspread.

This will be the first time these teams will have opposed one another on the college football gridiron. UNC won just one of its five games played as a visitor and posted a 2-3 mark ATS, while Mizzou went 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS on the road. North Carolinas gone an impressive 19-9 ATS the L/28 times it was installed an underdog, but has failed to cover each of its last four games following an outright triumph; the under has cashed in five of their last six nonconference tussles. Missouris 5-2 SU but just 2-5 ATS the last seven times it played on a neutral field, and checks in 1-4 ATS the L/5 times it was favored in a bowl game; the under is 9-3 in the Tigers L/12 non-conference battles.


PICK: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Missouri Tigers UNDER