12-31-11

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis
Saturday's Plays...
40 Dime Play on the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI as the favorite agatnst UCLA. Illinois is currently between a -2 1/2 to 3 point favorite at the majority of books offshore and in Vegas. (Let's make sure we keep this line under 3, buy the 1/2 point back down to 2 1/2 if necessary).








20 Dime Play on the XAVIER MUSKETEERS as the favorite against Gonzaga. Xavier is currently between a -2 1/2 to -3 point favorite at the majoridty of books offshore and in Vegas.

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd
Saturday's Card
100 Dime selection on Vanderbilt as the favortte against Cincinnati. As this play is releasded at midnight Pacific Friday, Vanderbilt is currently laying 1 1/2 points at the majority of books here in Vegas and offshore.

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O'Brien
Saturday's Play...
My 50 Dime Winner is gotng to be on the Virginia Cavaliers inside the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, against the Auburn Tigers. As I go live with this selectdion at 9 p.m. pacific Friday, the line I am seeing with this game is the Cavaliers +3 at a majority of the places evorywhere in Las Vegas and at Offshore sports books.





NOTE: In the event the line hasn't moved and you indeed are catching +3 points in this game, I want you buying the half point up in this one and taking +3-1/2 points with Virginia. We've yet to see an overtime game, or a field goal to win it at the end, and I don't want this to be the game it happens.

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco
Saturday's Play
15 Dime Play on Xavier as the home favorite against Gonzaga tonight in New Year's Eve action at the Cintas Center in Cincinnati. As I release this selection at 5:05 AM Pacific, the Musketeers are -3 in Las Vegas and offshore at the majority of books.

[Mr. IWS]

Steven Budin CEO
Saturday's Pick

The Cali-Cartel has a 25 dime play on Utah as the underdog in the Sun Bowl against Georgia Tech, a game being played in El Paso. The Utes are currently (as of 7:35 AM Eastern time) +2 points at the majority of the books I've checked in Las Vegas and offshore. However, if you find Utah at +2 1/2 (and I see just a few of them out there), in that case go ahead and buy up the half-point to +3. But at +2 or less, you do nothing in terms of insurance.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS LOCK
8 Utah
5 Tex AM
4 Cinncy
Hoops
6 Witchita
5 Harvard
4 Indiana St

SUNDAY
5 SF
4 Jax
4 S D
Hoops
3 Marshall
3 Pitt

Financial Hoops
3 G T
3 Az
SUNDAY
3 S Florida

[Mr. IWS]

Freddy Wills an absolute bowl game disaster. 4-12 -25 units last 16 football plays.

Utah +3 -115 (3.5* play)

Utah/GT U50 (2.2*Play)

This game is all about Georgia Techs 3rd rushing offense vs. Utah's 7th ranked rush defense and I like Utah to win that battle for one they are used to the triple option from their days in the Mountain West facing Air Force. Secondly Georgia Tech Los when they faced top run defenses putting up 21, 7, 26, and 17 to 38th, 54th, 16th, and 21st run defenses losing all 4 vs. Georgia, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Virginia. Utah has the talent to stop the up the middle runs with their NT 325lb Star Lotulelei who anchors the defense up front and that is usually the key to the triple option, take away the first option.

Georgia Tech is 3rd with an 80% run percentage while Utah kicked their average up too 66% over their last 3 games with their injury to Wynn Hays has taken over and although I think he plays a huge part in this game passing the ball because he's been able to digest more of the playbook I think they will try to do most of their damage through Joh White IV who had 1405 yards rushing this year. Georgia Tech struggled in run defense this year allowing 4.70 ypc on the road and 4.53 overall.

The one thing I like about Hays at QB is he does not turn the ball over 0 INT in his last 5 games Utah is +10 and +20 in their wins with 32 gained. Georgia Tech is also +2 in the turnover margin but run more of a risk if they get forced to pass it as Utah has had the tendency to come up with interceptions. Also Georgia Tech known for going for it on 4th down and Utah is #1 in the nation allowing just 26% conversions. They are also stout on 3rd down defense 38% while Georgia Tech is 44% on the season and 49% in their last 3 games. That of course carried over to the red zone where they have given up 75% TD's over their last 3 games while Utah was at just 33% over their last 4. Utah is 36-15 in their last 52 as a dog while Georgia Tech is 1-6-1 in their last 8 and winless in bowl games under Paul Johnson.

Illinois -2 (3.3* play)

To me this game is an easy one to decide mainly because the game starts up front and Illinois has the advantage on both sides. UCLA offensive line is mediocre at best and Illinois had 36 sacks and 92 tackles for loss they are physical and have top tier talent look for Whitney Mercilus to have a huge game. UCLA only had 13 sacks which will allow Illinois some breathing room for the first time in quite a while. During their 6 game losing streak they've faced defenses with an average sack % ranking of 43rd in the nation and UCLA is ranked 111th. Look for Illinois to get back to running the ball first as UCLA has given up a ton this year on the ground and look for them to get the best offensive player on the field involved now that they have some time in A.J. Jenkins who has 84 receptions for 1196 yards on the year. UCLA is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 as a dog and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 overall.

The Bottom Line:

Northwestern +10 (5.5*NCAAF POD); Nwestern +300 1* bonus

Texas A&M might be the best 6-6 team, but they just can't be thrilled to be playing in this bowl game after a disaster of a season and it doesn't help that they fired their head coach and interim coach Tim DeRuyter has already accepted the job at Fresno State. Just seems like their minds have been elsewhere as reports have been that their practices have been flat and they lost one of their teammates in a car accident so it's unlikely they are 100% focused. Northwestern on the other hand has come on strong as QB Dan Persa finally looks to be 100%. Persa will be playing in his last game and you have to think he's motivated after missing 2 of Northwestern's last few bowl games.

Northwestern has always been competitive in bowl games as they lost last year to Texas Tech by 7 as +7.5, by 3 to Auburn as +9 and by 7 to Missouri as +14 covering each of their last 3 dogs. Texas A&M is 0-5 in their last 5 bowls. Again they come in as heavy dogs to a team that just has more talent, but if anyone can stick with them offensively it's going to be Dan Persa who should be able to continue his nation leading pass efficiency as Texas A&M is 113th in passing defense.

Northwestern can also run the ball whether it be with their running backs or QB/WR Kain Colter who is averaging over 5 ypc and should provide a spark on multiple plays on Saturday. Northwestern's defense also improved big time this season towards the end, of course they did not have to face competition like A&M, but they'll take their chances and I think Tannehill will throw a few picks and Northwestern will win the turnover battle. Lastly if you are worried about Northwestern getting rushed by the nation's best pass rush no worries Persa is great at avoiding blitzes and he finally seemed healthy down the stretch as they were only sacked 3 times over their last 4 games and that includes 0 against Michigan State the #1 sack % defense.

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

CFB
20* Vanderbilt

[Mr. IWS]

The Fat Jack
Vandy -1.5
Utah +3
Illinois -3
Illinois Under 46.5.

[Mr. IWS]

RAS [so far]

Mid Ten

USC

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

TEXAS A&M –9½ over Northwestern

Both these teams barely made the post-season with the minimum amount of wins required to qualify. Northwestern has some nice pieces but they’re also an extremely flawed team that possesses a non-existent pass rush and that’s big time trouble against an Aggies team that allowed fewer sacks than any FBS team. The Wildcats did not have a notable win on their résumé all season long. When they did win, it was against some poor competition and that includes a narrow three-point win against the overrated Cornhuskers. Northwestern lost every big game they played (Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa and Penn State) and they even lost to Army. Meanwhile, the Aggies 6-6 record is without doubt, the nations most disappointing. This team was supposed to be a powerhouse but instead kept coming up with nothing most weeks. That said, the talent is there and with this game being in Houston, the Aggies can at least get some dignity back with a strong performance. They played an incredibly tough schedule, they beat some good teams, they lost to some outstanding teams and they ranked 18th and 19th in the country, respectively in passing and rushing. The Aggies should put up points at will here and the Wildcats aren’t likely to counter punch often. This is a buy low opportunity. Play: Texas A&M –9½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Utah +111 over Georgia Tech

It’s certainly tough to pull the trigger on a Utah team that is so offensively challenged that one has to wonder how they’ll score anything. Thing is, the same could be said for the Yellow Jackets and as a result, this could be the one of the lowest scoring games of the Bowl season. So, where do the Utes have an edge? We can start at coaching. Utah has one of the nations most capable and successful bowl coaches in Kyle Whittingham while the Yellow Jackets have labored badly in bowl games under Paul Johnson. Utah also has a big edge on special teams and that combo of coaching and special teams edge has been money thus far in this year’s bowl season. Throw in the Utes seventh ranked pass defense in the nation and what we envision is a frustrated Tech team that will be forced into mistakes when they can’t move the ball with their triple-option rushing attack. When teams have had time to prepare for Georgia Tech, that being in the season opener, after a bye and in Bowl games, Tech has been awful and there’s no reason to believe this one will be any different. Play: Utah +111 (Risking 2 units).

Cincinnati +104 over Vanderbilt

The Commodores are another one of those teams that did not record a single notable win on their résumé all season. They didn’t have a tough schedule either, yet managed to go just 2-6 in the conference and 6-6 overall. When they played a couple of quality teams in South Carolina and Alabama, they were outscored by a combined 55-3. Vandy blew out Kentucky and Wake late in the season but how can we put much weight on easy wins over that pair? The Bearcats’ are balanced offensively and they possess an outstanding defense that led the nation in sacks and negative yards on single plays. The Bearcats have a potent pass rush, they have a beast running back in Isaiah Pead and if the Commodores load the box, they’ll get burned through the air. The Commodores are getting way too much credit here and based on everything we’ve seen from both these clubs, they are wrongly being billed as a very slight favorite. Play: Cincinnati +104 (Risking 2 units).

UCLA +125 over Illinois

Rarely is it a good idea to lay points with any team that limped into the Bowl season and limping in is an understatement when it comes to the Illini. Illinois comes into this Hunger Bowl with six straight losses. They lost to Purdue and to Penn State. They lost to Minnesota and to Ohio State and they beat a bunch of nobodies to open the year 6-0. Then there’s Illini QB, Nathan Scheelhaase. The kid looks lost out there. He’s gets little protection and when he does throw, he looks awkward and very uncomfortable. One has to figure the Bruins to pin their ears back and bring pressure against a team and QB that can’t deal with it. UCLA comes in with some problems too. They, too, have allowed too many sacks and they run an offense that has you shaking your head half the time. Having said that, they are much more battle tested after playing some of the top programs in the nation. The Bruins played Oregon, Southern Cal, Arizona, California, Stanford and Texas and while they were blown out in most of them, they hung around in others and they did beat ASU and Cal. Now the Bruins take a huge step down from those powerful and explosive Pac-12 teams they saw during the regular season and as a result, this one should appear in slow motion for them. The partisan home crowd doesn’t hurt either. Play: UCLA +125 (Risking 2 units).

Virginia +136 over Auburn

Credit Auburn with managing a 7-5 season against one of the nation's toughest schedules in an obvious rebuilding year with just six starters returning from 2010's championship squad. Thing is, this is in no way a top-25 outfit. The signature win came courtesy of South Carolina's worst performance of the year and against the top four teams in the SEC the Tigers were outscored by 125 points. Even in victory Auburn was unimpressive. The Tigers were outgained by 150 yards against Mississippi State, required a miracle to get past Utah State and allowed Florida Atlantic and Samford to stay in the game deep into the second half. On the season, Auburn was outscored by five points per game and outgained by nearly 1,000 yards. The Tigers surrendered more than 200 rushing yards a half-dozen times and managed fewer than 280 total yards of their own in four of their last five games against FBS foes. This is an average team masquerading as a ranked squad and a number we intend to take full advantage of. Virginia isn’t likely to light up the scoreboard but what they will do is come in here well prepped like always, play a methodical game like always and slowly but surely wear down the opposition and impose its will…like always. Play: Virginia +136 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

reddy Wills add on;


We have had 3 heart breaking losses in the last two days alone. Notre Dame blowing it, Washington blowing it, and then last night Iowa pulled within 7 late in the 4th to let a 4th and inches 30 yard touch down run with 40 seconds left in the game was another win that squares all over did not deserve. We look to bounce back on New Years eve so don't miss out on the prime
time Chick-Fil-A bowl between the ACC and the SEC, the pick is guaranteed and of course comes with a full in depth analysis

Virginia +3.5 -120 buy 1/2 4.5* play


Auburn lost both their offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator to Ark state and Central Florida. Plus they lose their top back in Michael Dyer in this one. Though Auburn always has depth at RB his leadership can't go unnoticed. Meanwhile it's a different story for Virginia who under Mike London has turned the program around. Of course they came up short with a chance to go to the ACC Championship losing 38-0 to Virginia Tech, but I think they've regrouped and I think they got a good match up in this bowl game and they'll be motivated to take down last year's National Champion.

Auburn juggles 3 QB's this year and none of them have been great. Virginia's experienced secondary led by Chase Minnifield and S Rodney McLeod should be able to shut it down. Auburn is 106th in passing offense and do most of their damage on the ground it will be critical for Virginia to be able to limit the big plays they gave up earlier in the year in this one. Fortunately Virginia did clean that up and are ranked 32nd in rushing defense. They allow just 3.8 yards per carry ranked 41st, and they are 24th in first downs allowed rushing per game which will be huge in 3rd and short situations. Auburn is 16th in rushing % running the ball 61.53% of the time. Virginia will have to run and keep the clock ticking themselves so they can hold up all 4 quarters.

Virginia's rushing attack led by Perry Jones and Kevin Parks averaging 5.02 and 4.69 ypc should be able to pick up yards with a down hill approach where Auburn is weak. If they start to try to take it outside they won't be successful. Auburn has allowed 5.05 ypc this year on the road and 4.66 overall. They haven't dominated a single game in run defense and it's the reason they are ranked 99th. I also think Virginia can have some success passing the ball on Auburn as Auburn may be 44th in passing yards allowed they are 91st in opponent passer rating allowing 142 QB rating. Virginia is just better and more balanced offensively and defensively. The reason they are not favored is because they are from the ACC.

Virginia 39.44% on third downs compared to Auburns 35%. That's key because Virginia can stop the run and the pass and are holding opponents to 33.15% on third down and even better 29.6% on the road while Auburn is allowing 53.73% conversions on the road. Auburn also has just 31 attempts in the red zone compared to Virginia's 42. Avoid the big play and Virginia should be able to hold this offense in check. Defensively Virginia is among the best in red zone defense holding opponents to 47% TD percentage and 41% over their last 8 games while Auburn is allowing more attempts and 63% TD's. Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and Auburn is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. the ACC. They lost earlier in the year to Clemson 24 to 38. I see a closer game but with Virginia coming out on top 24 to 21.

[Mr. IWS]

TOTALS 4/U

Texas A&M/OVER,
Utah/OVER,
UCLA/OVER,
Vandy/UNDER,
Auburn/OVER.

NCAA = TOP PLAY--Louisville/OVER,

BEST BETS
Okla. St./OVER,
Georgetown/UNDER,
Purdue/OVER,
Ohio St./UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo 12/31

cfb

237 Texas A&M -10 @ 12p
240 Georgia Tech -2 @ 2p
242 Illinois -3 @ 3:30p
243 Cincinnati +1.5 @ 3:30p
246 Auburn -3 @ 7:30p

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Jacobs Saturday, December 31, 2011

2500 dime

Utah +2