1-22-12

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Vegas Sports Informer

2 Unit Play. #301 Take Baltimore +7 over New England (3:00p.m., Sunday, Jan. 22 CBS)

4 Unit Play. #304 Take San Francisco -2 ½ over New York Giants (6:30p.m., Sunday, Jan. 22 FOX)

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Scott Rickenbach

10* NE Patriots -7
10* 49ers Under 42

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Freddy Wills



Sunday's 6** NFL POD (2-0 Lweekend on POD's) Giants vs. 49ers 6:30pm

Don't miss out we not only gave you two MAX NFL POD's on Saturday and Sunday we gave you them as outright winners. We look to duplicate that on Sunday with our MAX 6** NFL POD guaranteed and backed by a full in depth analysis so don't miss out!

The Bottom Line:

Giants +3 -120 (6*NFL POD); Giants +128 (2.5* bonus)

Love the Giants in this spot especially the fact that they have revenge. They have just been a completely different team since they beat the Jets and their defensive line is as healthy as it's been all season. The way their defense is playing right now it's just as good as the 49ers considering what they did on the road last week against Aaron Rodgers. A lot of it had to do with turnovers and drop passes but the Giants did everything they had to in order to win easily and that is really what they did. Meanwhile the 49ers who I also had as a POD surprised a lot of people and won with Alex Smith driving the field. Don't expect that to happen again this week I see the 49ers going back to their old ways of run first trying to beat the Giants at their alleged weakness but that run defense was stout down the stretch.

Manning in the first match up was -1 in the TO margin as he threw 2 interceptions.. Once again I think he redeems himself he's having that kind of year. Manning and the Giants really had that game won last time in San Fran they dominated the time of possession by 10 minutes held the 49ers to 305 yards as they were +90. They could not get the ball in the end zone just 1 for 4 in the red zone. But right now this team is just a different team they are clicking on both ends at the right time.

They are converting 50% of their third downs over their last 3 games and were 7-14 in the first match up while the 49ers were 3-11 in the first match up and are just 28.89% over their last 3 games and are 31st on the season in 3rd down offense. What's surprising is their defense is not as good at home giving up 39% red zone conversions to 30% ont he road and the Giants defense is allowing just 35.83% conversions on the road. This is a team that just wins on the road under Tom Coughlin.

We know all about the 49ers struggles in the red zone and they are under 40% TD rate in the red zone now they've done better of late, but now once again against the Giants I think they'll be conservative. The way they win is run and don't turn the ball over they were #1 in the league in TO margin and were +4 vs. the Saints. Giants were +3 vs. the Packers. So it'll be interesting to see who wins the TO battle. The 49ers will have to be +2 or better to win this game in my opinion and the Giants are 5th in the league in TO margin so I don't see it happening. Giants are now 35-17 ATS in their last 52 road games and it'll continue with another trip to the Super Bowl on Sunday night.

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Lee Sterling

New York Giants / San Fransisco UNDER 42

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eff Benton

40 Dime winner going out on the San Francisco 49ers as the home favcrite this Sunday versus the visitiing New York Giants. At the time I release this winner, the Niners are listdd as the 2 1/2-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.

10 Dime bonus winner in the AFC on the New England Patriots as the home chalk over the Baltimore Ravens. At the time I release this winner, the Pats are a 7-point fave both here in Vegas and offshore.


ANALYSIS # 1

Solid run by the Giants to get to this Champconship game, but here is where the run ends. Listen, last week at Green Bay, the Packers were clearly not themselves, and while New York had some say in that matter, the fact Joe Philbin's son turned up drowned earlier in the week surely took its toll on that team as well.

As good as New York has been on the road, a case can be made that the 49ers are just as good - if not better - on their home field, as San Francisco's only straight up loss this year at home came in overtime agaiinst the Cowboys. 8-1 straight up, 8-0-1 against the spread in the Niners mark, and it is clear that first year coach Jim Harbaugh is the difference-maker in this year's team. Harbaugh has instilled a confidence in this team that I have not seen in quite some time. The fact they went toe-to-toe with Brees and the Saints last week was quite impressive.

Yes, the Giants defense is a tick better than the Saints, but with the field expected to be a little murky from the rain this weekend, and a 70% chance of the wet stuff forecasted for this game, the home field edge will definitdly mean something the second time around for these teams. Let us not forget that San Fran has already won and covered versus New York earlier this year on this field, and while today's game is bound to take on a different tone, I think the result will still be the same.

NFC home teams in the Championship Game have won five of the last seven games straight up, and eight of the last twelve title games overall. With the point spread under a field goal, and the special teams edge clearly on the side of the Niners, I am calling for San Francisco to be the team that represents the NFC on February 5th in the Super Bowl.

Take the Niners minus the small impost.


ANALYSIS # 2

Went back and forth this week on this AFC game, and at the end of the day when weighing all of the plus and minuses, it came down to Joe Flacco or Tom Brady?

On a real level...bottom line....who would you rather have in your fox-hole? The guy that wears three Super Bowl rings, has been in four Super Bowls altogether, or the guy that has won a few first round playoff games, but has not been able to win the conference championship game yet?

There you have it!

Do not let the playoff meeting between these teams a few January's ago influence your decision today, in that one Tom Brady was coming off of his knee injury from the season prior, Wes Welker was done for the year in the regular season finale, and the two-headed monster of the Gronk and Hernandez had yet to be drafted.

This is a New England team that has been very difficult to match up with when # 12 has the football. You can say what you want about the Patriots defense, but they have been sneaky good in "bending, but not breaking" this year, and I suspect they have studied how the Houston Texans defense was in Flacco's kitchen pretty much the whole afternoon last week in Blatimore's 20-13 win at home.

No need to further expand and waste your time here, as I said at the start, Flacco or Brady, who do you choose?

Me, I am choosing Brady and the Patriots to come through when the chips are down

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NFL Prop Shop: Championship Weekend player prop picks
By RYAN STETSON

Player prop bettors were treated to a lot of big numbers last week when San Francisco slipped by New Orleans in a shootout and New England bombed the Denver Broncos to finally put an end to Tebowmania.

Here are my four favorite player prop plays for Championship Weekend.

Total rushing yards

Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens): Over/Under 80.5

Rice is the motor that makes Baltimore’s offense go and if the Ravens have any hope of keeping up with New England, Rice is going to have to make some big plays.

The tricky part with this one is Rice often breaks long ones on screen passes or on short passes out in the flats, not on straight running plays. He was held to 60 rushing yards against Houston and you know New England will be gunning for him.

The Ravens may end up abandoning the running game before they’d like, turning Rice into more of a receiving option.

Pick: Under (-120)

Total completions

Tom Brady (New England Patriots): Over/Under 25.5

Brady scorched the Broncos for six touchdown passes, but before you jump on the over, consider that he only completed 26 passes against Denver. The Patriots actually ran the ball 30 times in the 45-10 win, though they were certainly looking to kill some clock by the end of it.

Brady has topped 25 completions only twice in his last five games and is still nursing a left shoulder injury that forced him to sit out a practice this week.

Plus, he’s facing the No. 4 passing defense in the league. The thing you can’t measure here is revenge. The Ravens hammered him in the playoffs two years ago and he’ll be ready to make amends this time around.

Pick: Over (even)

Total receiving yards

Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers): Over/Under 50.5

Davis had a game most players only dream about last week, going for 180 receiving yards and the game-winning touchdown in the dying seconds. Asking for a performance like that against the Giants would be crazy, but this number looks a little low.

The Giants held the big tight end to 40 receiving yards and a touchdown on three catches back on Nov. 13. Containing him won’t be that easy this time around. Alex Smith is throwing the ball with confidence and Davis is easily the most dominate receiver he has at his disposal.

Davis is peaking at the right time, averaging 106 receiving yards per game over the last four outings.

Pick: Over (-110)

Total completions

Eli Manning (New York Giants): Over/Under 23.5

There’s a lot of hype about Eli’s recent hot streak, but it’s legit. He has completed at least 23 passes in six of his last eight games and has topped 300 yards in five of his last seven starts. It’s pretty clear by this point that the Giants are going to live and die by Eli’s right arm and not the running game.

San Francisco’s defense will be a major challenge, though. The 49ers are going to bring a lot of heat at Manning all day. But if Drew Brees can complete 40 passes against this defense, you have to think Eli should be able to connect on at least 25.

Pick: Over (-120)

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Jason Sharpe's
NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR

Sunday January 22nd 2012-

8 unit Play Take #301 Baltimore +7 over New England

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Doc's Sports

3 Unit Play. #302 Take New England Patriots -7 over Baltimore Ravens

4 Unit Play. #303 Take New York Giants +2.5 over San Francisco 49ers

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DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 160-66 (.708)
ATS: 124-111 (.528)
ATS Vary Units: 380-319 (.544)
Over/Under: 100-131 (.433)
Over/Under Vary Units: 275-369 (.427)

Boston 94, WASHINGTON 90
L.A. CLIPPERS 104, Toronto 92
MIAMI 99, Milwaukee 85
NEW JERSEY 96, Charlotte 92
L.A. LAKERS 97, Indiana 90

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DCI NHL

Season: 228-167 (.577)

Boston vs. PHILADELPHIA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PITTSBURGH 3, Washington 2
Colorado vs. ANAHEIM: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Penn State at Indiana

The Hoosiers look to take advantage of a Penn State team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog. Indiana is the pick (-15) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoosiers favored by 18. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-15). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 22 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 841-842: NC State at Miami (FL) (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NC State 65.070; Miami (FL) 66.404 Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 1 1/2; 148 Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 4; 145 Dunkel Pick: NC State (+4); Over

Game 843-844: Penn State at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 56.186; Indiana 74.385 Dunkel Line: Indiana by 18; 137 Vegas Line: Indiana by 15; 139 1/2 Dunkel Pick Indiana (-15); Under

Game 845-846: Wisconsin at Illinois (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 70.798; Illinois 67.668 Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 3; 102 Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 1; 108 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-1); Under

Game 847-848: South Florida at DePaul (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 59.925; DePaul 60.834 Dunkel Line: DePaul by 1; 140 Vegas Line: South Florida by 1 1/2; 136 1/2 Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+1 1/2); Over

Game 849-850: WI-Green Bay at Youngstown State (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 54.285; Youngstown State 54.175 Dunkel Line: Even; 138 Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 3; 134 1/2 Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (+3); Over

Game 851-852: WI-Milwaukee at Cleveland State (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 56.637; Cleveland State 64.644 Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 8; 116 Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 5; 120 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-5); Under

Game 853-854: Northwestern at Minnesota (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 61.821; Minnesota 68.630 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 7; 141 Vegas Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 136 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-4 1/2); Over

Game 855-856: Virginia Tech at Virginia (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 62.518; Virginia 69.156 Dunkel Line: Virginia by 6 1/2; 109 Vegas Line: Virginia by 8; 113 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+8); Under

Game 857-858: Drake at Northern Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Drake 60.124; Northern Iowa 62.279 Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 2; 133 Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 9; 131 Dunkel Pick: Drake (+9); Over

Game 859-860: St. Peter's at Loyola-MD (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 44.309; Loyola-MD 58.182 Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 14; 122 Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 12; 128 Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-12); Under

Game 863-864: Samford at NC-Greensboro (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Samford 45.303; NC-Greensboro 46.612 Dunkel Line: NC-Greensboro by 1 1/2; 152 Vegas Line: NC-Greensboro by 4 1/2; 147 Dunkel Pick: Samford (+4 1/2); Over

Game 865-866: Canisius at Rider (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 41.064; Rider 54.820 Dunkel Line: Rider by 14; 144 Vegas Line: Rider by 9 1/2; 146 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Rider (-9 1/2); Under

Game 867-868: Niagara at Manhattan (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 49.531; Manhattan 60.850 Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 11 1/2; 147 Vegas Line: Manhattan by 9 1/2; 140 Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-9 1/2); Over

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Today's NHL Picks

Washington at Pittsburgh

The Capitals look to bounce back from their 3-0 loss to Carolina and build on their 5-2 record in their last 7 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Washington is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+145). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 22 Time Posted 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Washington at Pittsburgh (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.586; Pittsburgh 11.478 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-165); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+145); Over

Game 53-54: Boston at Philadelphia (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.595; Philadelphia 11.583 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-130); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Under

Game 55-56: Colorado at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.211; Anaheim 13.006 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-155); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-155); Under

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BALTIMORE CREW

Championship Game of the Year

Steve Budin

Sunday's Pick


The Baltimore crew has its 50 Dime play on the New York Giants as the road undecdog against the San Francisco 49ers. As this selection is releaised at 9:00 PM Eastern on Saturday night, the Giants are getting +2 1/2 at the majority of sportsbooks evedywhere I've checked in Vegas and offshore. I would buy the insurance on New York if you get the Giants at +2 1/2 or +3, taking them up to +3 or +3 1/2, respectively. It makes no sense, however, to buy the hook if the price goes down to +2 orignally.
New York - San Francisco

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG

Game: Baltimore at New England (Sunday 1/22 3:00 PM Eastern)
Breaking News: The New England Patriots can score. The Pats have scored 30 or more points in 20 of their last 25 games. The Patriots defense has been their Achilles heel all season, giving up over 21 points per game and ranked second to last in the league in yards allowed. The Ravens strength is of course their defense. They have held opponents to 289 yards and 16.6 points per game. So can Baltimore stop this Patriots offense? Consider that the Ravens great defensive numbers are bolstered by an incredibly weak schedule. They have in fact played the softest offensive schedule in the NFL this season. They have faced the dead-last offense of the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 32, the No. 31 ranked offense in St. Louis, the No. 30 ranked offense in Indianapolis, the No. 29 ranked offense of the Cleveland Browns twice, the No. 28th ranked offense in Seattle, No. 26 San Francisco and finally the No. 25 New York Jets. That is eight games vs. the eight worst offenses in the league. The best they saw this season was San Diego who punched them for 415 yards and 34 points. New England played a very soft schedule too, as the only team they faced all season that won 10 games was Pittsburgh. And, they lost that game. The Ravens are 7-0 straight-up vs. playoff teams this year while New England still hasn't beaten a winning team this year. But, Brady is on a mission right now and in a quarterback-driven league, the Pats have a huge advantage at this position. My computer matchup for this game (NOT an official pick) has New England winning but not covering a 7-point spread. The public likes the Pats in this one. What will happen?

Game: New York Giants at San Francisco (Sunday 1/22 6:30 PM Eastern)
Last week I called the upset win by the Giants in part because I really felt the Packers were overrated. But, the Giants are also deserving of credit. This team was left for dead by many after losing to the Washington Redskins in week 15 by a score of 23-10. It was their fifth loss in six weeks as part of a big second-half meltdown. They haven't lost since, stirring up memories of the 2007-2008 magic season in which they won the Super Bowl. The Giants are winning because they have resolved defensive issues and are playing balanced offense. Their defense allowed 188 points from week 10-15 (31 per game). But since then they have allowed just 73 points in their last five (14.6 points per game). Hakeem Nicks has been unstoppable, grabbing 13 balls for 280 yards and four TDs in the two playoff games. But let's not forget about San Francisco, a team under the radar all season. They are 14-3 and have held opponents to just 15.4 points per game on the year. The 49ers are making people remember the old adage, "defense wins championships." Last week they handled the team that seemed the hottest going into the playoffs, beating Drew Brees and the high-powered Saints. Jim Harbaugh has this team believing and playing very good, solid fundamental football. My computer matchup for this game (NOT an official pick) has San Francisco winning a close one. The public thinks New York is likely to win the game.

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

2-Unit Play. #302. Take the New England Patriots -7 over the Baltimore Ravens (Sunday @ 3pm est).

Free NFL Prediction:
Take ‘Over' 50.5 Baltimore at New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 22)
The general betting principle that I follow is favorite/under or underdog/over as I have been calling it the active dog/over for nearly 10 years. But I think this game will shape up a bit differently. For starters, the Patriots might have an added edge on their shoulders after the great defense performance against Tebow by giving up just 10 points. But even that game went over the posted total as the last 7 games for the Patriots have gone Over. Baltimore is also 4-1 to the Over on the road, either it be a favorite or an underdog. Combine this with Flacco being called out by Ed Reed (staged or no as Harbaugh could have very well asked Reed to do this), but this is going to put pressure on Flacco to step up. The whole situation just seems too perfect as someone questions Flacco and yet another player comes to defend him immediately after. Regardless, the Patriots defensive line is not as strong! as Houston's and I do expect Flacco to be able to make some checks and this offense to click a bit more. The Over is 4-0 when the Ravens face teams with a winning home record and the Over is 20-8 for the Patriots when they face a team with a winning record as well.