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Allen Eastman
3* Creighton
2* Detroit
2* St. Louis
3* Creighton
2* Detroit
2* St. Louis
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Doc Sports
3 Unit Play. #824 Take Duke -12 over Lehigh (Friday 7:15 pm CBS) Everybody is down on Duke at the moment and many feel that they will be the first of the top 8 seeds to be knocked out of the NCAA Tournament. But it will not come in this game against Lehigh, the tournament champions of the Patriot League. Duke is 16th in the country in points per game and that will allow them to cover this number, as I expect they will score over 80 points in this contest. Duke is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss in their previous game.
3 Unit Play. #837 Take NC State -2.5 over San Diego State (Friday 12:40 pm Tru TV) We have had a great feel for the Aztecs all season long, but the fact remains they are not close to as talented as they were last year. Had this game been in the west, they might have had a chance, but since it is being played in Columbus, I fully expect a rout by the Wolfpack. NC State is playing some of their best basketball of the season at the moment, as they have won four of their last five games and took UNC to the wire on Saturday before some questionable officiating did them in. I really like this team, as they have the ability to score points in a variety of ways and the Aztecs just will not be able to keep pace with them. NC State has five players averaging in double figures in scoring and San Diego State has just three players with double figure scoring. San Diego State did not perform very well against the top teams in the MWC this season losing two straight games to New Mexico and one game to UNLV. They also struggled to put away Boise State (won at the buzzer) and TCU (won in overtime) during the month of March. San Diego State is a strong defensive team, but they are not great shooters and really have to battle to score points on the offensive side of the floor. Also, I have never been a fan of Steve Fisher as a coach and feel he is not a big game coach especially during the NCAA Tournament. NC State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Aztecs get sent packing by and up and coming NC State that is determined to make a run in the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament!
8 Unit Play. #842 Take Cincinnati -2 over Texas (Friday 12:10 pm CBS) NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. We went against the Bearcats for our big play on Saturday against Louisville, but feel that they will have a much easier time scoring points in this game against a one man team in Texas. Louisville was determined to not let Cincinnati beat them from the three point line but Texas cannot do that with their very inexperienced team. Texas has very few good wins this season and none of them have come away from Austin. The Bearcats started the season off on a sour note but really turned the corner and bonded together after the brawl game with their in-city rival Xavier. The Bearcats have lost just three games since February and they have great balance with four players averaging over double figures per game. Texas is a one man team with J'Covan Brown and he is legit, but having four days to prepare for him should allow Coach Mick Cronin to devise a solid game plan in the hopes of containing him. The Bearcats pounded Missouri in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament in 2011 and that Tiger team has many of the same players that beat Texas three times this season. Cincinnati has won a game in the NCAA Tournament in their last three appearances and will make it four in a row come Friday. Cincinnati allows over 5 points per game less than Texas does and that will be too much for this young Longhorn team to overcome. Texas is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against Big East teams. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Big XII teams.
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Robert Ferringo
0.5-Unit Play. Take #841 Texas (+3) over Cincinnati (12:15 p.m., Friday, March 16)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #841 Texas (+8) over Cincinnati (12:15 p.m.) AND Take #838 San Diego State (+7.5) over N.C. State (12:40 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #841 Texas (+8) over Cincinnati (12:15 p.m.) AND Take #839 St. Bonaventure (+12) over Florida State (2:45 p.m.)
5-Unit Play. Take #831 Long Island (+19.5) over Michigan State (9:20 p.m., Friday, March 16)
Note: This is our Game of the Month.
I know that this one seems like one of the more random plays on the card today. But I love this spot and I think that we have a really great chance of cashing this one for our Game of the Month. First, if you look yesterday none of the top seeds that play - Syracuse, Kentucky or Ohio State - really blew the doors off their opponents. I and feel like Long Island is actually better than Western Kentucky and Loyola and that they are at least as good as UNC-Asheville. I think that they will end up losing like those other teams but I think that they can put some pressure on Michigan State in this game. Long Island only lost to North Carolina by 16 points in the first round of last year's tournament and I feel like that Tar Heels team is a lot more explosive than this Michigan State team. Long Island brought back four starters and five of their top seven players from that team so they are experienced in this type of environment and won't be scared here.
The Spartans are legit. There is no doubt about that. But it is always a good idea to fade the conference tournament winners from the major conferences and that's one angle I'm playing here. I think that this game is somewhat of a letdown spot for Michigan State after their epic win over Ohio State and cutting down the nets after that game. And even if Michigan State does come out and play with its hair on fire and get up early, then I think that they would be wise to rest Nix and Green - their two stud big men - for later in the tournament. Also, Michigan State didn't blow out comparably ranked teams that they played this year, beating UW-Milwaukee by 13, Bowling Green by 14, Lehigh by 9, UA-Little Rock by 22, and Nebraska by 13.
Further, there are some nice systems at work here for Long Island. You want to play against teams that enter the NCAA Tournament on a run of 3-0 SU and ATS or greater. Also, you want to play on any double-digit underdog that was in the tournament the previous season. The Northeast Conference has gone 2-0-1 ATS the last three seasons in The Big Dance and they are 4-2-1 ATS in the last seven years in the first round. Finally, the total on this game is in a range that suggests that the lower seed will cover the spread.
So I think this is a decent matchup for our squad. They can score and tehy are very experienced, and I think that this athletic team will be able to go up-and-down with the Spartans for most of this game. They aren't going to win. But for these lower-tier schools the victory is in the fight. LIU will fight for 40 and I can see them losing by 15 points here and cashing this ticket.
3-Unit Play. Take #846 Michigan (-5.5) over Ohio (7:20 p.m., Friday, March 16)
Note: Lower to a 2.5-Unit Play.
I really like this Michigan team and I think that they have a draw where they can do some damage. I know that their best role is as an underdog, but John Beilein has been a master in the NCAA Tournament and I think that his team is going to play sharp basketball. They have two stud guards and a clear go-to guy in Tim Hardaway. Also, if you were watching yesterday you would have noticed that the Big Ten is no joke and that they dominated their opponents from start to finish. Well, Michigan was actually the Big Ten co-champions along with Ohio State and Michigan State. They aren't on that level (even though they beat both of those teams) but they are an excellent basketball team. Ohio is coming out of a tough, tough MAC Tournament. I wonder how much they have in the tank, mentally, and if they are going to be able to stay focused against this Michigan style.
1-Unit Play. Take #830 Creighton (+1) over Alabama (1:40 p.m., Friday, March 16)
1-Unit Play. Take #853 Purdue (+2) over St. Mary's (7:20 p.m., Friday, March 16)
1-Unit Play. Take #844 Temple (-2.5) over South Florida (9:50 p.m., Friday, March 16)
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 136.0 Alabama vs. Creighton (1:40 p.m., Friday, March 16)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #850 Florida (-3) over Virginia (2 p.m., Friday, March 16)
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 129.0 St. Bonaventure vs. Florida State (2:45 p.m., Friday, March 16)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #836 Georgetown (-3) over Belmont (3 p.m., Friday, March 16)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #847 Norfolk State (+21.5) over Missouri (4:40 p.m., Friday, March 16)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #824 Duke (-12) over Lehigh (7 p.m., Friday, March 16)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #846 Michigan (-0.5) over Ohio (7:20 p.m.) AND Take #831 Long Island (+24.5) over Michigan State (9:20 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #839 St. Bonaventure (+12) over Florida State (2:45 p.m.) AND Take #853 Purdue (+7) over St. Mary's (7:20 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #830 Creighton (+6) over Alabama (1:40 p.m.) AND Take #851 Detroit (+19) over Kansas (9:55 p.m.)
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Allen Eastman
3-Unit Play. Take #830 Creighton (+1.5) over Alabama (1:40 p.m., Friday, March 16)
I will go with the winners of the Missouri Valley Conference in this game. Alabama has really struggled on and off the court over the last month. They kicked their top scorer and rebounder off the team last month and that will hurt him now. This team has gone just 5-4 in their last nine games. They are also 0-3 ATS in their last three games as a favorite. Creighton has won seven straight games and they are playing very good basketball right now. Keep an eye on Doug McDermott. He is one of the best players in the country and he is going to lead this team into the second round and a date with North Carolina.
2-Unit Play. Take #851 Detroit (+14) over Kansas (9:55 p.m., Friday, March 16)
The Titans are a tough team out of the Horizon League. Remember, this is the same league that Butler came out of and they made back-to-back Final Four runs. Detroit has an excellent guard in Ray McCallum and a good big man in Eli Holman. Detroit is 10-1 in their last 11 games and they have been playing great. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 13 or more points. Kansas is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games. They should win this game and advance but I think it will be a close one.
2-Unit Play. Take #833 St. Louis (+3) over Memphis (6:50 p.m., Friday, March 16)
This is a very good St. Louis team. I like Rick Majerus and I think that his experience in the NCAA Tournament is going to be a big asset today over Memphis' young coach. The Atlantic 10 was a very tough conference this year and was better than Conference USA. St. Louis dominated that league and I think that they are ready to get down to business here. This game should be more low-scoring than people expect. And in a half-court game I think that will play to St. Louis' strength and experience. I think that this game will be tight but that St. Louis will win outright.Comment
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Vegas Sports Informer
NCAAB BASKETBALL PLAYS
5 Unit Play. #836 Take Georgetown -3 ½ over Belmont (3:10 p.m., Friday, March 16 TruTV)
Yes the Belmont Bruins come into this game winning 11-straight but who have the Bruins played in those 11-games. I can tell you this; the Bruins didn't play Big East opponents! I look for Georgetown to win this game on the glass as the Hoyas should have no problem pushing the Bruins around down below. The Belmont Bruins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court and the Georgetown Hoyas are 10-3 ATS as a favorite on a neutral court.
2 Unit Play. #839 Take Over 129 ½ St. Bonaventure at Florida St (3:45 p.m., Friday, March 16 CBS)
This play is all on the FSU Seminoles offense! FSU has scored 80 plus points in 3 out of their last 4-games and Friday afternoon Florida St should keep this trend cashing. Florida St is 7-1 O/U in their last 8 games and the Bonnies must keep the offense up with FSU or this game gets out of hand quickly.
3 Unit Play. #842 Take Cincinnati -2 over Texas (12:15 p.m., Friday, March 16 TBS)
It's no secret that I faded Texas this season and again we will fade the Longhorns Friday morning in Vegas. Texas comes to this game losing 5 out of their last 7 games and Texas struggled all season long on the road and on neutral courts. Cincinnati comes into this game streaking hot against the spread and the Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. Cincinnati wins this game with ease and look for a possible double-digit victory for the Bearcats.Comment
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Indian Cowboy
4-Unit Play. #831 .LIU-Brookyln or Long-Island Brooklyn +19.5 over Michigan State (Friday @ 9:20pm est).
Whenever you have either a competent offense or defense you are able to stay in a contest. And, with this game likely to be a high scoring affair and from what Long-Island saw against NC-Ashville against Syracuse, anything is possible and I don't see this team laying down to Michigan State. Michigan State comes off a high which includes a Big10 Championship but this is a let down spot in some ways for them and like the Kentucky game yesterday with teams coming through the backdoor, that possibility is always open in this game. Long Island is top 80 in offense in the nation, top 30 in effective field goal percentage, top 75 in 3 point shooting, top 25 in 2 point shooting, top 50 in free throw shooting and has some size to compete against State. What we look for in this game is for Long Island to be down by 8 or so points at the half and to hover around the 13-15 mark in the second half to eventually lose but still fall inside the spread. The Spartans typically are such public favorites they don't do well as in neutral sites ATS as they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on neutral footing.Comment
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Jason Sharpe
Friday March 16th 2012
4 Unit Play Take #842 Cincinnati -3 over Texas (12:15pm est):
Big mis-match here between these two teams as Cincinnati has a big edge at the all important guard position. The Bearcats take very good care of the basketball, very rarely turning it over. They like to go with a smaller lineup most of the time which should cause fits for a Texas team that goes with a lot of freshmen.
The Longhorns have had numerous chances at some of the better teams in the country, failing almost every time as they got hammered at North Carolina by 20+ points, were 0-3 versus Missouri, 0-2 against Baylor and 0-2 against Kansas. It was clearly obvious that this young group can't handle older more experienced teams yet.
As for Cincinnati, they are a very talented group and they showed that with wins on the road against Georgetown and UConn while also beating the likes of Syracuse, Marquette and Louisville this season. They should have no problems here against an opponent that would be lucky to win 8 games in the Big East.
Play Cincinnati here.
3 Unit Play Take #855 Northwestern +5.5 over Washington (10:00pm est):
Both these teams felt a little snubbed about not getting to the big dance this year but both had a fair shot and blew it. Northwestern had what I felt was a tough first round opponent versus Akron and got through that game and now I expect this team to start relaxing a bit as the last few months has been pressured packed for this group. The Wildcats are a veteran group who comes out of what I felt was easily the best conference in the country this season. They played an extremely difficult schedule with only five games that I would call easy games this season (going 5-0 in those contests).
Washington is a very young team who seemed to fold up in almost every big game this season. No way this team wins half their games if they were in the Big Ten this season, which was a conference that boasted easily six teams better than anything the Pac 12 put on the court this season. Their first round NIT opponent was pretty much a pushover for them at home against Texas Arlington. Can't see much excitement here in this one and I have spoke in-depth about how the home court advantage is overly emphasized by the books in this tournament.
Finally for the first time in months I feel there is really no pressure on the Wildcats here as most now expect them to bow out here. Northwestern is not a bad team or chokers at all, like most folks have labeled them. They played a brutal stretch of top teams which most programs including Washington wouldn't have been able to do anything against either. Playing a team like Washington is a lot more their level and something they should be able to handle. Take the points and Northwestern here.
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Strike Point Sports
Friday's College Basketball Plays
7-Unit Play. #842 Take Cincinnati (-2) over Texas (12:15 p.m., Friday, March 16)
It's funny how another season can change your perspective of a team. Last year, one of our top NCAA Tournament plays was against Cincy when we backed Missouri in that first round game where the Tigers got worked over. This season, I have seen a lot of good things from the Bearcats. And even more so, this Texas team is lucky to be in the tournament. Cincy has a ton of scoring options. Texas has just one in J'covan Brown. Cincinnati has an unmatched big man in the paint in Yancy Gates. On the perimeter they are also superior with the likes of Dion Dixon, Cashmere Wright, Jaquan Parker and Sean Kilpatrick. These five players combine to average 50 points per game. I can't see how the Longhorns can match these offensive outputs. It's been a down year for Texas and that's going to sum up their efforts with a one-and-done in the Big Dance. I can genuinely see Cincy as a Sweet 16 team. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, but I said to a colleague prior to the bracket that this Cincinnati team is going to be a tough out in a knockout scenario. For at least just this round, I love this match-up for the Bearcats. They take care of Texas and advance.
3-Unit Play. #843 Take San Diego State (+2.5) over N.C. State (12:40 p.m., Friday, March 16)
I think the wrong team is favored here. This season San Diego State proved more to me than N.C. State, even though it is tough to compare the two based on the Aztecs being a pseudo mid-major and the Wolf Pack playing in the ACC. But San Diego State has been a Top 25 team for the majority of the year. N.C. State is a middle of the road team at best in their league. There is just no way you are convincing me that San Diego State should be the underdog. I will ride with the team that earned some valuable NCAA Tournament experience last season. They are a bit further under the radar, so we'll see if that can't spark another run for the Aztecs.
3-Unit Play. #830 Take Creighton (+1.5) over Alabama (1:40 p.m., Friday, March 16)
Here is another situation where I will easily side with a very good mid-major over an average Alabama team, notably one that hasn't played at full strength for the majority of the season. The Blue Jays were a favorite of mine through non-conference play, and we used them toward some nice cashed last fall. I see the whole success of the season carrying through to a game such as this, where an up-and-down season for the Tide might suggest you don't know what to expect from them in a big game like this. Anyhow, give me Creighton: the more proven commodity.
3-Unit Play. #850 Take Florida (-3.5) over Virginia (2:10 p.m., Friday, March 10)
I preface this play by saying that I love this game for Florida to win, but I just felt somewhat hesitant after seeing the line. I mean, I knew Florida was going to be a favorite, but was hoping for close to a pick-em, even if that was wishful thinking. That's neither here nor there. Florida is the better team from the better conference. I know Mike Scott is a really talented play for the Cavs, but the Gators can counter with Bradley Beal, Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton. Just like with the Cincy game above, I can confidently get behind a team with multiple weapons over a limited offense and a team in Virginia that really struggles to score. We'll go SEC over ACC here.
3-Unit Play. #844 Take Temple (-2.5) over South Florida (9:50 p.m., Friday, March 16)
This is a pick simply fading the Bulls after their performance in the 'play-in' game. We saw how poorly BYU responded on short rest, and I simply do not see how USF can play as well here as they did against Cal on Wednesday. Temple is a tough, gritty and veteran team that knows how to win. I like their makeup and moxy and am willing to lay a modest number in my mind considering all of the above.
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