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Matt Youmans
TAMPA BAY (Shields +110) over NY Yankees (Sabathia)
TAMPA BAY (Shields +110) over NY Yankees (Sabathia)
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Robert Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take #955 Colorado (-120) over Houston (7 p.m., Friday, April 6)
Note: This should be a 3.5-Unit Play.
I just see two teams going in opposite directions here. Houston is basically a glorified Triple-A team while the Rockies are focused on bouncing back from a very disappointing season. Colorado has two studs in Tulo and Cargo and they now have two savvy veteran leaders - Todd Helton and Mick Cuddyer - to help take the pressure off. That is already a stronger core than anything the Astros have, and I don't see any scenario where Houston doesn't lose 100 games.
I guess you could say that Wandy Rodriguez is a bit of a slow starter. He gave up 29 hits and 12 walks in just 21 innings this year in Spring Training, posting an ERA of 7.29 and a WHIP of 1.95! That is on par with what he has done the last two years, where he has posted ERAs of 8.04 in 2011 and 12.10 in 2010. So he rebounds fine during the regular season. But the thing is that he has been pretty bad the last two years in his first start of the season, as kind of a carryover from his horrid Spring Trainings. Last year he gave up nine hits and seven runs in four innings in his first start. In 2010 he gave up 11 base runners and three runs in six innings in a loss to San Fran. Now he has to face a Rockies lineup that has shelled him in the past. Todd Helton hits .440, Ramon Hernandez .381, Troy Tulowitzki .300 and Michael Cuddyer .400 against the lefty. Overall the current Rockies hit .356 for their careers against Wandy.
On the other side is Jeremy Guthrie, a guy that I have felt needed to get out of the American League for a long time. Guthrie has really good stuff, but he was just being worn out in Baltimore. I think he is going to have a solid season and I think that he will be sharp here. Colorado has a huge edge all over the diamond and I think that they will clean up here.
2-Unit Play. Take #961 Minnesota (+115) over Baltimore (3 p.m., Friday, April 6)
Note: This should be a 1.5-Unit Play.
Who the hell are the Orioles favored against? How does this work again? I know that Minnesota was the worst team in the American League last year. But that was because they basically had to play without Mauer and Morneau for the entire season. Well, those two are back in the fold and as long as they are in the lineup this team is better than the Orioles.
Jake Arrieta is basically a fringe Major League starter. Not on the Orioles. He is Baltimore's ace. Well, I don't buy it. Arrieta's numbers against Minnesota don't appear that bad. He is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in his career against them. But if you dig deeper you see that he has a WHIP of 1.80 against the Twins and current Twinkies hit a collective .375 (6-for-16) against him. Now for the bad news: he has never faced Mauer or Morneau. Both the M&M boys were healthy enough to play more Spring Training games this year than either of the last two seasons so they should be sharp as play resumes. I really like the price here and think that this is a good value situation.
2-Unit Play. Take #966 L.A. Angels (-1.5, -105) over Kansas City (10 p.m., Friday, April 6)
Note: This should be a 2.5-Unit Play.
It's Bruce Chen dude. It's Bruce Chen. I know he had decent numbers last year. But it's still Bruce Chen. And I think that the Angels are going to demolish mediocre left-handed pitching this season. This team has a lot of buzz and great electricity around it since they added Albert Pujols. And just like in St. Louis, his presence allows everyone and everything to settle in around him. I think guys like Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells are going to enjoy being role players now and not having to carry the team. And I think that those two big right-handed bats - along with guys like Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick and Pujols - are just going to wear southpaws out. I think the Angels jump all over the Royals and this could be a long weekend for KC.
1-Unit Play. Take #957 L.A. Dodgers (+120) over San Diego (10 p.m., Friday, April 6)
Today's Totals:
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 6.0 L.A. Dodgers at San Diego (10 p.m., Friday, April 6)
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 7.0 Kansas City at L.A. Angels (10 p.m., Friday, April 6)
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 7.0 San Francisco at Arizona (7 p.m., Friday, April 6)
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.0 Colorado at Houston (7 p.m., Friday, April 6)
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.5 Chicago White Sox at Texas (2 p.m., Friday, April 6)Comment
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DOC SPORTS
3-unit Play Take #958 San Diego Padres (-130) over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:05pm ET)
The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second game of a three-game series to start the season. The Dodgers got the best of the Padres yesterday afternoon 5-3, but their bullpen was taxed as Clayton Kershaw had to come out of the game with flu symptoms after only three innings of work. Today they go with right-hander Chad Billingsley, who is far from reliable for going deep into the game, which they need tonight. Billingsley was just 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA last season in a spacious Dodgers stadium. While he's more talented than his numbers demonstrate, he hasn't put it all together mentally to stay consistent from start to start. He got off to a rough start last year and with the spring he had it looks like it might be that way once again. I'm also skeptical that the poor Dodgers offense from last season is going to be any better this time around. You can't expect Matt Kemp to put up any better numbers than he did last year and you can probably say the same for Andre Ethier. There's still a lot of easy outs in the Dodger lineup and that's not going to change until the new management group starts spending some money and making some moves.
The Padres send southpaw Cory Luebke to the mound in this one. Luebke was one of the great surprises of 2011, posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his rookie campaign. I think he can put up similar numbers again as his flyball style is well-suited for the large Petco Park. They're lineup is also going to be better this year with the additions of Yonder Alonso and Carlos Quentin (out for a month). They now have a good mix of veterans and youngsters and they should be able to score enough runs to stay in most games, especially with their strong bullpen. The Padres get the nod across the board in this one as they have the better starting pitcher, a slightly better offense, a superior bullpen and they're at home. Take San Diego at a nice price tonight.
3-unit Play Take #964 Tampa Bay Rays (+120) over New York Yankees (3:10pm ET)
It's the big market bullies versus the small market intellects in today's matchup. The New York Yankees had a rather uneventful offseason by their standards. They did add Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda to the starting rotation, and Andy Pettitte came out of retirement. And there's no question that the added depth in the starting rotation is going to make this team better overall in the regular season. However, the everyday lineup and bullpen is mostly the same from last year and most of them are on the wrong side of their prime. As a result, we should see a little drop off in production from the rest of the team. I also expect to see a little drop off in production in the performance of today's starter, CC Sabathia. He's thrown 230+ innings for five consecutive seasons and, although he is a beast on the mound, all of those innings are going to eventually affect even him. He had a poor spring performance in the Grapefruit League and we might see some carryover into April until he's in his normal groove.
The Tampa Bay Rays are one of my favorite teams to watch and bet on because they always give maximum effort and they have one of the smartest managers in the game. Joe Maddon is excellent in dealing with his players, getting them prepared for their opponents, and positioning them to succeed. He has probably his most talented team ever and the expectations are high in Tampa this season. They made a couple of moves in the offseason to improve their lineup, bringing back Carlos Pena at first base and adding Luke Scott to DH. Evan Longoria is also ready to breakout and is being touted as a major MVP candidate by many. There's no one the Rays would like to have on the mound today for a big opening day start than James Shields. Big Game James lives for these types of games and put together are a very nice spring in preparing for the season. I like his chances to outduel Sabathia in Tampa, where the Rays have a stronger home field advantage than most.Comment
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