4-7-12

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates A
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

5* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on Pittsburgh in the second of this three game series set to start at 7:05 PM ET. I also like adding a 5* amount using the Run Line. Although second baseman Freddy Galvis impact on today?s game could be minimal, he is an excellent defensive specialist. His bat has come around as well. The 22-year old made a spectacular defensive play ending in a double play that got ace starter Roy Halladay out of a two-on nobody out first inning jam.

In the National League last year, the two most powerful runs scored were the second and third runs. The earlier they occurred in a game, the greater the chances that team would win the game. Teams that scored one run in a game won 9.6 percent of the time. But teams that scored two runs won 26 percent, and teams that scored three runs won just over 40 percent of their games. In other words, preventing a second run increases a team's odds of winning by about 17 percentage points, and preventing a third run increased them by about another 15 percentage points. No other runs moving the scoreboard from 3 to 4, 4 to 5, or 5 to 6 had as much impact on winning percentage as the second and third runs scored.

So, with the Phillies incredible starting pitching that sees Halladay, Lee, and Hamels pitch three of every five days, having Galvis at second base makes all the sense in the world. The problem will arise, and it will be a good one, is what happens when Chase Utley is ready to return. Only time will tell, but with two chronic knees, Utley?s ?big show? days may be numbered. If he returns 95% or better then the Phillies have either the second baseman of the future or a great trade bait come the trading deadline July 31.

The simulator shows a high probability that the Philadelphia Phillies will win this game comfortably. I also like adding a 5* amount using the Run Line. Pittsburgh was shutout by Roy Halladay and the Phillies defense in their home opener and Pittsburgh is only 6-23 losing 15.8 units per one unit wagered using the money line after getting shut out over the last three seasons. Moreover, Pirates skipper Hurdle is just 5-17 losing 15.3 units per one unit wagered against the money line in home games after a game with a combined score of two runs or less in all games he has managed since 1997.

Roy Halladay has tremendous control and one of the best walks-to-strikeouts in all of baseball. However, after a team faces Halladay, they then have to face Cliff Lee, who threw the most strikes, 70% of all pitches, of any pitcher in the majors in 2011. Based on the strike zone along he threw 58% of pitches in the strike zone and this shows that he forced batters to try to hit pitches that were out of the strike zone and the result were routine easy outs. Only Justin Verlander, who went 26-6 and won the American League Cy Young and MVP awards in 2011, and Roy Halladay had better WHIP ratios than Lee.

The current members of the Pirates have batted just .164 in their respective careers when facing Lee spanning 55 at-bats. Rod Barajas is hitless in 17 at-bats in his career facing Lee.

The Phillies offense will score far and away more runs than needed to get this win. Take the Phillies for a 5* play using the money line and a 5* play using the Run Line.

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers

We are sure that ESPN had the best of intentions when it scheduled this
week's Saturday Night Special between the Orlando Magic (32-23, 28-27 ATS) and
the Philadelphia 76ers (29-25, 27-26-1 ATS) from the Wells ***** Center in
Philadelphia, PA at 8:00 ET. After all, this seemed like a good matchup when
Philadelphia got off to a 20-9 start this season and sat atop the Atlantic
Division for a huge chunk of the year, and even when Orlando was sitting at a
nice 32-18 a little over a week ago. However, both teams have now fallen on
hard times.

Orlando's problems begin off the court, as its locker room would make for a
great soap opera right about now. It was reported on Thursday morning that
Head Coach Stan Van Gundy heard from upper management that Magic superstar
Dwight Howard had asked them to fire Van Gundy earlier this season, which
seems plausible given Howard's displays of immaturity throughout his career.
Howard denied those claims, but he then looked to only be going though the
motions in a nationally televised 96-80 home loss to the Knicks that same
night, accumulating only eight points and eight rebounds in nearly 40 minutes.
That marked the season-high fifth straight loss for Orlando both straight up
and against the spread while getting outscored by an average of -10.0 points
during the steak. The Magic averaged 92.0 points on 43.8 percent shooting in
those losses, but the most disturbing aspect of the slump is that the proud
defense allowed 102.0 points per game on a ridiculous 51.7 percent
shooting! Orlando is now also just 4-6 straight up and a bad 2-8 ATS in its last 10
road games.

The 76ers' problems have been entirely on the court, which is not a good
thing either. Philadelphia has gone only 9-16 since the 20-9 start, including
just 4-8 in the last 12 games. The Sixers are coming off of possibly their
worst loss of the season too, a terrible 99-78 loss here at home to the 20-35
Toronto Raptors where they managed to score only seven points in the entire
fourth quarter. That embarrassing loss marked the fourth time in the last
eight games that the 76ers failed to score even 80 points! Can it be that
Philadelphia's great start was the result of facing a weak schedule to begin
the year? After all, the 76ers are just 3-13 vs. teams in the Sagarin Top 10
this season. It is even incredibly possible that they can go from being in
first place at 20-9 in a strike-shortened season to being out of the playoffs
entirely, as Philadelphia has now been reduced to being the seventh seed in
the East just 1 games of eighth place New York and three games ahead of
ninth place Milwaukee, and it finishes the year by playing nine of its last 11
games on the road.

These teams have met twice this season with the home team winning straight
up each time, although Orlando is 2-0 ATS in those encounters. The Magic
covered as 7-point underdogs in a 74-69 loss here in the City of Brotherly
Love on January 30th before a handy 103-87 win in Orlando on February 15th. Of
course, that was all before Dwight-gate took center stage.

Pick: PHIL 76ers-4.5

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Insiders Club

NBA (0-2 Fri)

3* Philadelphia -4.5
3* Golden St. +3

MLB (4-0 +4.20 ytd)

3* Baltimore ML -120
3* Milwaukee ML -115

[Mr. IWS]

Power Play Wins
Power Play of The Day is
Atlanta Braves(-105)

[Mr. IWS]

EZWINNERS

2* Toronto -103
2* St. Louis +102
2* San Francisco +113
2* Houston +106
2* Pittsburgh +158
2* Miami +143
2* NY Yankees +118
2* Chicago White Sox +167

[Mr. IWS]

Rich Sports


Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles - Saturday April 7, 2012 7:05 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) MONEYLINE: Minnesota Twins -105


Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians - Saturday April 7, 2012 1:05 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) TOTAL: Over 8 (-110)


Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets - Saturday April 7, 2012 1:10 pm
Pick: 5 units (Normal) MONEYLINE: Atlanta Braves -115

[Mr. IWS]

Stu Feiner
Baltimore Orioles

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports

3-unit Play Take #906 Milwaukee Brewers (-120) over St. Louis Cardinals (4:05pm ET)

Great pitcher's duel on paper this afternoon when the Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals, but one starting pitcher definitely has the upper hand. Zack Greinke had an excellent first season with the Brewers last year and he followed that up by adding a new cut fastball in the spring and blowing hitters away with it. Greinke is an old-school type pitcher that is always looking to improve his game and be more efficient. He's in the prime of his career and now that he's been here a year I think he'll settle in even more and deliver better results. The Brewers lineup took a huge hit when Prince Fielder went to the American League, but that might be getting a tad overrated. Some of the loss was mitigated by picking up free agent Aramis Ramirez to play third base and the improved defense they'll have on the left side of the infield with him and Alex Gonzalez. Mat Gamel, Fielder's replacement, is also extremely talented and is expected to put up some decent numbers. And of course Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks and Cory Hart are still around, so this is still a very good offense. Add that to the stellar bullpen that Milwaukee retained from last year's team, and you can see why some people are picking them to repeat as National League Central champions.

The Cardinals took quite a hit of their own when Albert Pujols also decided to switch leagues and play for the Angels. He was the heart and soul of the team much like Fielder, but they did a decent job of replacing some of his production by bringing in Carlos Beltran. I don't think the Cardinals are going to be quite as potent as last year as they got really big years from Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday that will be hard to repeat at their age. I also think the loss of manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan is going impact this team a lot more than has been discussed. Those were two of the greatest minds in the game and they definitely contributed significantly to the Cardinals success during their long tenures. Adam Wainwright pitches for the Cardinals in this matchup. He's coming off of Tommy John surgery so it's hard to say whether or not he's actually back to 100%. He put up decent numbers in the spring, but his dominance looked a little down as he wasn't striking out batters with regularity. He might need 5-10 starts before he finds his groove again and I think the Brewers will jump on him early here. And with Greinke and an excellent bullpen behind them, they're not going to need to score very many today. Don't forget that the Brewers were 57-24 at home last season and that they are 17-0 in Greinke's last 17 home starts. Those are powerful numbers to only be laying -120 with Milwaukee.

4-unit Play Take #917 Toronto Blue Jays (-110) over Cleveland Indians (1:05pm ET)

The Toronto Blue Jays take on the Cleveland Indians in an early afternoon tilt. From an attitude perspective, these two teams couldn't be any farther apart right now. The Blue Jays had the best spring record (24-7) in all of baseball and saw lots of improvement from some of their younger players. The Cleveland Indians had the worst spring record (7-22) in baseball and left camp with a lot of question marks. In the first game of the season, the Indians led the Blue Jays the entire game and ended up blowing a 4-1 lead in the ninth to eventually lose in 16 innings 7-4. It was a gut wrenching loss for the Indians who have already been dealt a few tough blows, one of them being the injury to Grady Sizemore.

You would also be hard-pressed to find two starting pitchers who have as drastically different springs than today's starters Brandon Morrow and Ubaldo Jimenez. Morrow seems to be finally harnessing his talent and showed it off in the spring with a sparking 0.52 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Jimenez experienced all kinds of issues with his mechanics and posted a 7.43 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in his seven spring starts. It all came to a head in his last start when he intentionally plunked former teammate Troy Tulowitzki to prove a point. Although he wasn't thrown out of the game, Jimenez was eventually suspended for five games and he was supposed to miss this start. He's currently appealing the suspension so he will be out there for this one, but don't expect him to turn everything around just because it's the regular season. He is an absolute mess right now and Toronto's dangerous lineup is not the team you want to face to calm things down. This one could get very ugly, so take the Jays at an excellent price.

4-unit Play Take #923 Minnesota Twins (-105) over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET)

Two of the weakest American League squads take the field today, but that doesn't mean that there isn't money to be made here. The Minnesota Twins took a huge step backwards last year after dominating the American League Central for quite a few years. One of the biggest reasons for their horrible year in which they finished 63-99 was injuries to their two biggest stars - Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. They're both back this season and that immediately transforms the Twins lineup from one of the worst in the majors to somewhat respectable. Minnesota should also get a shot in the arm from what looks to be a fully healthy Francisco Liriano. The once proud ace had a horrible 2011 campaign as he was pitching with several ailments and finished with a 5.09 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. In the spring he looked dominant again and posted a 2.33 ERA in his seven starts. While it was only Spring Training, it seems like Liriano is definitely healthy and focused on getting back on track.

[Mr. IWS]

Allen Eastman

2-Unit Play. Take #909 Colorado (-120) over Houston (7 p.m., Saturday, April 7)

Jaime Moyer should be as excited for this start as any he has ever made. The 49-year-old hurler will have a thing or two to show the young Houston lineup. The Astros committed four errors yesterday and they still look like a team that has left its head in Spring Training. Colorado has won six of the last eight meetings and I think that they will get to young Lucas Harrell today. I will put my money on experience.

3-Unit Play. Take #928 Texas (-1.5, +110) over Chicago White Sox (8 p.m., Saturday, April 7)

I think that Jake Peavy is going to struggle with this powerful Texas lineup. Peavy is not the same pitcher that he was a few years ago in San Diego. He was up and down this spring and he was hit hard by the Rangers in two outings last year. Peavy gave up nine runs in nine innings against them last year. The Rangers are 13-6 in their last 19 games against the White Sox and they are the better team here.

[Mr. IWS]

TONY FLACCO
3* Brewers

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Informer

MLB BASEBALL PLAY

3 Unit Play. #906 Take Milwaukee -120 over St. Louis (4:05p.m., Saturday April 7)

The Brewers look for some revenge this afternoon at home as they look for a better performance from their pitching staff. I'm actually surprised on how well the Cardinals have been playing in their last 2-games but today I believe their luck runs short. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright missed all last season with Tommy John surgery so he probably won't pitch through the 6th inning so look for the Cardinals bullpen to give the Brewers our win today. Today as well the Brew Crew throw out Zack Greinke and if Greinke was as good as last year at home the Brewers will have no problem winning their first game of the season. The Brewers are an outstanding 17-0 when Greinke is a home favorite.

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

3-Unit Play. #909. Take Colorado Rockies -115 over Houston Astros (Saturday @ 7:05pm est).

At the end of the day, you have to trust the 49 year old in Moyer. He had a 2.5era in the Cactus League and is great for the clubhouse. The Rockies ended up winning the first game between these two teams and with the better pitcher on the mound, the better lineup and the better bullpen, it should work out well for them today. Yes, they are the public favorite which is never a good thing, but having said that, public favorites do win from time to time and although Lucas Harrell is a good pitcher, I suspect he will struggle the second time through the lineup against the likes of Cuddyer, Helton, Giambi and Hernandez. Look for the Rockies to have enough pop to win this game as Moyer keeps them in from start to finish likely keeping the Astros hitters off balance.

[Mr. IWS]

Jason Sharpe

5 Unit Play Take #906 Milwaukee -120 over St. Louis (4:05pm est):

Excellent value here on one of the most underrated, unlucky pitchers in all of baseball last year. Zach Greinke finally had some things start to fall his way the second half of last season and when that happened he became the dominant pitcher that he can be. He showed a lot of that this spring also as he was almost unhittable the first few outings until he finally got touched up a bit in his last spring start. This is a big series here for the Brewers as some questions obviously loom after losing their big basher Prince Fielder this off-season. With a rematch against the World Series winning Cardinals, the Brewers know they must win at least one of their first three games here. making this game almost a must win after yesterday's ugly series opening defeat to the Cards. This is a team that feasted on RHP last season as they won 42 of 54 at home when facing a right-hand starter. Even more impressive then that is the fact the Brewers have won 17 straight at home when favored with Greinke on the hill for them.

Way too many questions loom in this one for what has to be a slightly tired St. Louis club. The Cards played a spring training game earlier in the week, went to Miami Wednesday to open up that stadium and then came up here to Milwaukee to play their rivals in this very important series. You have to wonder a bit how much they have in the tank right now. They go with Adam Wainwright tonight, a guy who was hurt and out all of last year. He is on a strict pitch count coming into this one so even if he is pitching well the Cards will most likely have to rely heavily on their bullpen in this game. Not an easy start or an easy opponent for Wainwright to have to come back too in his first game in over a year.

No such thing as a must win game this early in the baseball season but this one has a lot more importance to the Brewers here especially with how poorly they played yesterday. This is a confident bunch who plays at a whole other level when they are at home as does Greinke who goes from good to great in home contests. Take the Brewers in this one. Big weekend of NBA action as I look to get things going again. Been a rough last few days on the pro hoops hardwood but I feel ready to roll the rest of the season in the NBA as I am in tune with which teams have quit and which ones are putting a little extra into their games right now. Get on board and join me in the winning.

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Hook

Sac/LAC O205.5 (Double) 10:35
Pacers -1.5 over Celtics (Dime) 7:05
Lakers +1 over Suns (Double) 10:05
Bobcats +9 over Hawks (Triple) 8:05

Braves -113 over Mets (Double) 1:10
Astros +107 over Rockies (Dime) 7:05
Reds -151 over Marlins (Double) 7:10
Tigers -110 over Red Sox (Double) 4:05

Masters: 3rd Rd. matchup Ian Poulter over Fredrik Jacobson (3 Units)

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
MLB 5-3 Season-to-Date +$530
Game: San Francisco at Arizona (4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: San Francisco +105 (moneyline)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have had the San Francisco Giants' number recently, as yesterday's win moved their winning streak to six straight. They will have a difficult time today vs. Madison Bumgarner, who is a young and budding star on the mound. Bumgarner posted a 3.21 ERA a year ago, including 2.52 after the All-Star break where he went 9-4. He stands at 3-0 vs. the D-Backs with a nifty 2.41 ERA against them. The Giants are 15-7 as an underdog when Bumgarner toes the rubber. The D-backs lost each of Hudson's last four starts a year ago. Play on San Francisco in this one.