5-17-12

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Runner

MLB: Another round of TRUE STEAM has been confirmed on UNDER BAL/KC..."Mover" went UNDER 9.5 (-120) and UNDER 9 (-105)..strong position.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lovell

40Star NBA
Miami vs Indiana Over 181

[Mr. IWS]

Charlie Sports.
Nba playoffs:
500**Miami/Indiana Under 181
500*Clippers +11
500*Clippers/Spurs Over 194

[Mr. IWS]

Brian Leonard

NBA

EASTERN CONF GAME OF THE MONTH!!!

Miami Heat -pts

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

Complete Card

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Oakland/ Texas Under 9: Taking an Under in a Texas home game is not that crazy this year, even with Harrison on the mound. Texas home games have gone 12-5-1 Under this year, while all 3 of their home days games have gone Under the total. Matt Harrison does have a 5.29 ERA at home this year, but those starts have averaged just 7.67 rpg, plus the A's are a team that Matt has fared well against, posting a 3.03 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, including posting a 1.31 ERA in 2 starts vs them here. Today he is not taking on a good A's offense, as Oakland comes in hitting .213 and scoring 3.5 rpg on the road this year, while in their last 5 overall they have averaged just 2 rpg and have hit a mere .172. Normally the Rangers are a team that scores well over 5.5 rpg at home, but their year their scoring is down to 4.8 rpg in this park and they come in having scored just 9 total runs in their last 3 games of this current home stand. Today they face a tough pitcher in Brandon McCarthy, who has a solid 2.56 ERA on the year, including a 3.48 ERA on the road and a 1.48 ERA in 2 day starts. Brandon's games have not been that high scoring, as just 6.56 rpg have been scored in his games overall and just 6.33 rpg have been scored in his 3 road starts, with all three of the road starts going Under the total. There wasn't great pitching on the mound last night and still just 5 runs were scored in the game. Oakland is really struggling to score right now, while Texas will have a tough time putting up many vs Brandon. No more than 6 in this one.

3 UNIT PLAYS

Cleveland/ Seattle Over 8.5: Hector Noesi is a bad pitcher and should struggle today, especially vs all the lefties he may face. Left-handed batters are hitting .279 vs him this year and they have a .903 OPS vs him as well. Hector has an 8.27 ERA on the road this year, with his road starts averaging 9.3 rpg. The Cleveland offense has struggled at home this year but they do come in having scored 19 runs in their last 3 games and they just tagged Felix Hernandez for 8 runs (6 ER) in just 3,.2 innings of work. Zach McAllister has had 2 starts on the year and has been pretty decent, but he does have a 4.15 ERA so he can give up some some runs, plus behind him their is a Tribe pen with a 4.84 ERA at home on the year. This struggling Seattle offense should wake up for a few runs in this one. Cleveland will score a bunch in this one and while I would love to take them on the RL i just can't because I expect their pen to come in and give the M's a few late runs, which may make it a 1 run game. both teams will score plenty in this one.

St Louis/ San Francisco Under 6.5: Had the over in this one last night and lost, so i'll go the other way here. San Fran home day games have gone 4-1-1 UNDER this year, while St Louis has gone 11-3 UNDER vs right-handers on the road. Adam Wainright seems to be figuring things out and he has pitched very well on the road this year with a 2.41 ERA, while in his last 2 road starts have allowed just 2 ER in 13 innings. Adam does have an 0-3 mark in 4 starts vs the Giants, but with a solid 3.19 ERA. The Giants really struggle to score at home, so Adam's seasonal numbers should continue to get better. The Giants have scored just 3 rpg in their last 10 games overall, while at home they have averaged just 2.9 rpg on the year. Opposing Adam will be Matt Cain, who has been very solid this year. Matt comes in with a very nice 2.26 ERA on the year, while at home he has a 1.04 ERA and an 0.55 WHIP in 4 starts, with those 4 starts averaging just4 rpg. Matt has struggled some with the Redbirds as he has a 4.66 ERA vs them in his last 5 starts, but St Louis is having injury issues and are just not the same offense right now and they will have problems vs Cain today. Cardinal home games have been very high scoring, but their road games have gone 14-6 UNDER, while Giant home games have gone 11-5 UNDER. Both trends should continue.

Houston/ Milwaukee Over 7.5: (Added) The Astros Have had some scoring issues of late, but a lot of their recent games have been on the road. Last night they were at home and put 8 runs on the board, and they have now averaged 4.6 rpg at home on the year. They have a tough pitcher to deal with today in Shaun Marcum, who has a 3.07 ERA on the year, including a 2.77 ERA on the road, plus in 2 career starts here vs the Astros, he hasn't allowed an ER. Still Houston's offense is better than in years past and should get to him for a few today. J.A. Happ has been bad for Houston this year with a 5.72 ERA overall and a 5.40 ERA at home. Happ also has an 8.35 ERA in his last 4 starts vs the Brewers, with all 4 games putting up at least 8 runs. The Brewers struggle to score on the road, but they should get to Happ for plenty today. This one may reach DD.

Milwaukee -1.5 (+125) over HOUSTON: (Added) I know I have the Over in this play and need Houston to get some runs and that's ok be cause i really don't expect them to get more than 3 runs here, while I expect the Brewers to post at least 6 or 7 in this one. Shaun Marcum is clearly the better starter this one one and has yet to allow an ER in 2 career starts here. Games in which he won 5-0 and 4-0, while all of J.A. Happ's 3 losses vs Milwaukee have been by 2 runs or more. Happ has an 8.35 in his last 4 starts vs the Brewers and should get hit hard again in this one. Look for a 7-3 win by the Brewers in this one.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

DETROIT -1.5 (-115) over Minnesota: Last night the Twins won 11-7 to take game 1 of this short series, but today behind Doug Fister and his 0.54 ERA they should exact some revenge. Look detroit to win rather easily.

Philadelphia -1.5 (+105) over CHICAGO: (Added) The Phils look ready for a big run. Roy Halladay is struggling and the Phils have lost his last 5 starts, but their offense is really coming around and it should continue tonight vs Chris Volstad, who is 0-3 with a 7.29 ERA at home and 0-2 with an 8.89 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Phils. Look for another easy win by Philly here.

1 UNIT PLAY (No Writeups for these)

Arizona +106 over COLORADO

WASHINGTON -145 over Pittsburgh

[Mr. IWS]

Power Play Wins

Atlanta Braves ML

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers

300,000* SA Spurs

100,000* Phillies RL

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Runner

Night MLB Leans: UNDER LAD/SDP and UNDER NYY/TOR...Both confirmed as True Steam but wiseguys extracted too much of the value for premium.

[Mr. IWS]

Nelly

Spurs -10.5

[Mr. IWS]

Eddie Keen

23-7 MLB RUN (78%)

New York Yankees over Toronto Blue Jays

Reason: Play the YANKEES. New York is coming off a bad 8-1 loss to Toronto on Wednesday, but remember TORONTO is 1-6 against the money line when playing against a team with a Win Pct. 54% to 62% this season. This is Drew Hutchison's first start against the New York lineup, so while the Yankees might not know what to expect, it is hard to imagine a young pitcher feeling comfortable against the Bronx Bombers. Add to that Toronto's mediocre record at home (9-9) and mini-revenge factor from an embarrassing Wednesday beat down and the Yankees will be more than ready with Phil Hughes on the mound. Hughes was stellar in a 7-2 win at Toronto last July.
Play the YANKEES.

[Dancin' Shoes]

LEGIT PICKS

Thursday 5/17/12 Plays...

HIGHEST RATED 6* PACERS
5* RED SOX/RAYS (UNDER)
4* DODGERS/PADRES (UNDER)
3* YANKEES/BLUEJAYS (UNDER)

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