6-2-12

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Well, we may have an epic series yet, as the Oklahoma City Thunder (56-22,
42-35-1 ATS) ended the 20-game winning streak of the San Antonio Spurs
(60-17, 49-24-4 ATS) in emphatic fashion with a 102-82 blowout victory in Game 3.
It should be noted however that the Thunder played like the team that had
all the incentive while trying to save their season, while the more content
Spurs played with absolutely no sense of urgency, even sitting the Big Three
from the middle of the third quarter onward. You can expect the San Antonio
team of the previous 20 games to show up on the road for Game 4 though,
which takes place on Saturday night from Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma
City, OK at 8:30 ET on TNT.

The 82 points that the Spurs scored was they fewest they have scored all
year, be it regular season or the playoffs, and they also committed a whopping
21 turnovers, which was the most in any playoff game by any team this
post-season. It was virtually apparent from the start that the Thunder would be
one step ahead of the Spurs on this night while playing in desperation mode,
as Oklahoma City's Thabo Sefolosha by himself recorded four steals in the
game's first three minutes! The Spurs ended up shooting 39.5 percent for the
game and they finished with just 24 points in the paint, which was half of
the 48.0 points per game in the paint that San Antonio averaged in the first
two games of this series. It was nearly impossible to find one thing positive
thing about the Spurs' performance on Thursday, other than the fact that
Tim Duncan's five blocked shots leave him with an NBA all-time record of 477
playoff blocks, breaking Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's playoff record of 476.
Regardless, you can bet that the Spurs will come to play in Game 4, as the best
coach in the NBA in Gregg Popovich will make certain of it.

Now give the Thunder a lot of credit, as they played with a ton of energy
after getting schooled by the veteran Spurs in Game 2, and they made San
Antonio look more like an "old" team than a "veteran" team. Oklahoma City had a
very balanced attack with five players in double-figures. Kevin Durant led
the way as usual with 22 points, but Sefolosha set a personal playoff high
with 19 points and James Harden provided his usual instant offense off the
bench with 16 points. Russell Westbrook (10) and Serge Ibaka (14) were the
other two double-digit scorers and the defense also did its part obviously as
the Thunder played probably the most complete game in their young playoff
history since moving from Seattle. So now the big question after playing a
seemingly perfect game becomes can they do it again and hand a team that just had
a 20-game winning streak snapped a second straight loss?

The Spurs had been 10-1 straight up in the previous 11 head-to-head
meetings with the Thunder prior to Thursday's beatdown while going 8-3 against the
spread in those games, including going 4-1 both straight up and ATS here in
Oklahoma City. Also, the 'over' is now 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings
despite Game 3 staying 'under' the total. Then again, it did take a season low by
the Spurs to get that 'under' accomplished as Oklahoma City did its part
offensively.

Pick: OKC THUNDER-3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

Brewers -140

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

Thunder -3

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker
KC Royals / Oakland A's Over 8
Seattle Mariners / Chicago White Sox Over 9

[Dancin' Shoes]

LEGIT PICKS

Saturday 6/2/12 Plays...

HIGHEST RATED 6* MARINERS ML/LP

---SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
6-Unit Play. #913. Take Arizona Diamondbacks -104 over San Diego Padres (Saturday @ 7:15pm est).

WNBA:
3-Unit Play. #603. Take Over 155.5 Chicago Sky vs. Atlanta Dream (Saturday @ 7:05pm est).

2-Unit Play. #4. Take Under 4.5 LA Kings vs. New Jersey Devils (Saturday @ 8:05pm es

[Mr. IWS]

JR Tips
VIP 10,000,000* Oklahoma City Thunder -3½

[Mr. IWS]

4-STAR Texas over LA ANGELS - CJ Wilson got the best of Texas last meeting. Now it's time for the Rangers to get to him. Look for Yu Darish to find his control here and get the best of this matchup.
Texas lost the series opener yesterday to LA, 4-2. The Angels had six hits in the win. The Rangers are 18-1 since April 22, 2011 as a favorite after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1570.

Texas meanwhile had eight hits but left six on base as a team while LA stranded five. The Rangers are 21-1 since April 27, 2011 when playing a night game as a favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite for a net profit of $1870.

LA's damage came late, with two runs in the sixth and seventh innings after trailing 2-0. The Angels are 4-13 since April 01, 2011 when playing a night game when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1282 when playing against.

That loss puts Texas on a rare three-game losing streak. The Angels are 5-18 since May 21, 2011 when playing a night game vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1687 when playing against.

Wilson's last start vs. Texas, was a 4-2 win for LA on May 12. The Rangers are 14-1 since June 29, 2011 when playing a night game as a favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher for a net profit of $1269.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Texas 6, LA ANGELES 3

4-STAR HOUSTON over Cincinnati - Wandy Rodriguez has been pitching really good lately but his last outing masks that fact. Despite 5 Ks and 0 walks, Rodriguez was done in by Coors Field and allowed seven runs. That's keeping this line down here and is good for you.

Rodriguez was done in by the long ball there, allowing two to the Rockies. The Astros are 5-1 since April 30, 2011 when Wandy Rodriguez starts after giving up 2 or more home runs and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $525.

Rodriguez has been good in games expected to be tight in the midseason. The Astros are 13-4 since June 10, 2005 when Wandy Rodriguez starts within 20 cents of pickem in June for a net profit of $1010.

Cincinnati won yesterday's series opener, 4-1. They scored two runs in the top of the first and those proved to be enough. The Reds are 1-17 since April 10, 2011 on the road when they are off a win in which they never trailed in a night game for a net profit of $1664 when playing against. Mike Leake was strong for Cincinnati and as a team they allowed just five hits. The Reds are 5-15 since April 13, 2011 on the road after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1089 when playing against. They only had six hits though but left just two men on base in the game. The Reds are 0-17 in database history between game 20 and 100 of the season with a total under 10 after a game where they left no more than two men on base as a team.

That equated to just six left on base individually. The Astros are 10-2 since April 16, 2011 when playing a night game as a dog after a loss in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1122.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: HOUSTON 5, Cincinnati 3

4-STAR Seattle over CHICAGO - Some words of advice. Never lay a big number with a pitcher who is pitching terribly lately. That is Gavin Floyd here. The combined WHIP of his last three starts is 2.18. Meanwhile on the other side, Hector Noesi has now thrown three straight quality starts. Look for him to keep Seattle in the game and that to be enough with Seattle's offense having a nice day.

You also should not want to trust Gavin Floyd as a big favorite in general. The White Sox are 2-6 since April 16, 2011 when Gavin Floyd starts as a 140+ favorite for a net profit of $650 when playing against.

His last outing, he pitched to contact, and hard contact at that. He allowed five runs over five innings to Cleveland, throwing just 91 pitches to 27 batters. The White Sox are 0-4 since April 16, 2011 when Gavin Floyd starts as a home 140+ favorite when he is off a start in which he needed fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter for a net profit of $583 when playing against.

Last night, Chicago opened this series with a 7-4 win. The White Sox are 4-15 since April 13, 2011 at home after scoring 6+ runs in a night game for a net profit of $1444 when playing against.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Seattle 7, CHICAGO





4.5-STAR San Antonio over OKLAHOMA CITY - Some people worry about a letdown following a huge winning streak. That's usually not the case. Teams are a solid 24-18 ATS (30-12 SU) the game following a loss which broke a 12+-game winning streak. Being in the middle of the playoffs we worry about it even less. San Antonio knows it just needed one of two games here in OKC to take full command of the series and tonight's is the one they'll get.
San Antonio also plays well following the ending of a winning streak, usually on a much smaller scale. The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since January 02, 2009 on the road with at least one day of rest off a loss to a team with a winning percentage under .770, that broke at least a three-game winning streak.

Oklahoma City won game 3, 102-82. San Antonio scored 19 points less than expected in the loss. The League is 0-13 ATS (-8.8 ppg) during the playoffs since May 12, 2007 when not favored by more than four points, after a double digit home win in which their DPA was minus 15 points or less.

Turnovers were the big factor of the game. San Antonio committed 21 while Oklahoma City had just seven. The Spurs are 8-0-1 ATS (6.8 ppg) since November 30, 2002 if not at a rest disadvantage, after a road loss in which they committed at least twenty turnovers.

Tim Duncan had 11 points in that game while Tony Parker and Stephen Jackson shared top honors with 16 each. The Spurs are 8-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since January 18, 2012 after a loss in which Tim Duncan was not the Spurs' high scorer. Duncan also had only one assist while committing two turnovers. The Spurs are 7-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since January 17, 2009 on the road after a loss on the road in which Tim Duncan had more turnovers than assists.

Manu Ginobili's struggles really sunk San Antonio. He went just 1-of-5 from the field. The Spurs are 6-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since January 17, 2009 on the road after a loss on the road in which Manu Ginobili shot worse than 33% from the field.

No one for San Antonio played more than 28 minutes as they shut things down early in the blowout to plan for game four. Ginobili played 21 minutes. The Spurs are 6-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since January 27, 2009 on the road with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Manu Ginobili played fewer than 30 minutes.

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: San Antonio 101, OKLAHOMA CITY 96

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence (all 3*):
San Antonio

Atlanta
Seattle
LA Angels

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover
double-dime Spurs +3.5 -110
double-dime SEA / CWS Over 9
dime Miami Marlins +145

[Mr. IWS]

Marco D'Angelo

3* tigers
2* spurs over
1 oak