7-14-12

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We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

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Canadian Bacon: Week 3 CFL preview and picks
By JON CAMPBELL

So much for all that talk of the East being the punching bag of the CFL after Week 1. At least for bettors.

Eastern Division teams covered the spread in both meetings against the West last week while the other two games featured inter-divisional clashes. It was a complete flip-flop on the over/under also last week when the over went 3-1, compared to the week before when the under went 3-1.

On to this week’s matchups.

B.C. at Saskatchewan (+3, 54)

The Roughriders are the only team to have covered the spread in both of their games so far in 2012, which is part of the reason they’re only giving a field goal to the defending Grey Cup champs.

The other reason is that Sasky has looked just plain good in decisive wins over Hamilton and Edmonton. Saskatchewan’s defense has surrendered just 13.85 points per game over its last seven games dating back to last year – which is kind of incredible for the CFL. The under cashed six times over that span so that’s worth a look.

While that’s all well and good, B.C. has been something of a nemesis for Sasky bettors in recent seasons and the Lions have now covered in the past five meetings.

Pick: B.C. -3

Toronto at Hamilton (-3.5, 54.5)

Toronto tried its best to lose last week’s game against Calgary, blowing a 15-point, third quarter lead to allow the Stamps to come back and tie the game. And if this were last year’s Argos, they probably would have lost the game.

But this year’s Argos battled back to win on a field goal as the final seconds clicked off the clock, showing fans their investment in Ray brings hope for the future.

Hamilton, who also invested in a new QB this offseason (Henry Burris), isn’t quite seeing the same promise in the early going. The Ti-Cats are 0-2 and their defense has allowed 82 points through two games. Now they’re giving away more than a field goal to Toronto’s league-leading QB in passing yards.

Pick: Toronto

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Saturday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking

Gio Gonzalez , Washington Nationals (12-3, 2.92 ERA)

Gonzalez has won his last four starts and the Nats have won 14 of his 17 trips to the mound this season overall. He’s 7-1 on the road, where he’ll be on Saturday against Miami. The lefty is the third biggest money winner for bettors this season behind only R.A. Dickey and A.J. Burnett.

Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds (3-6, 4.01 ERA)

After starting the year 0-5 in his first six starts, Leake has only taken a loss in one of his past 10 outings. Unfortunately, his record is only 3-1 during that span. His ERA is 1.88 over his past three starts with a WHIP of 0.88.

Slumping

Aaron Laffey, Toronto Blue Jays (0-1, 2.67 ERA)

The lefty Laffey hasn’t had much luck lately with the Jays. Due to multiple injuries in the starting rotation, Laffey has been moved to an opening role and has allowed just five earned runs in 18 innings in three starts. Unfortunately, he’s not getting much run support and the Jays lost all three games. The 27 year old only tosses in the mid-80s but he can pick his spots and might provide some value if Toronto can get him some scoring help.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants (3-10, 6.42 ERA)

Lincecum has pretty much been in a slump all season. But Saturday’s start is different. The Giants are putting a leash on him and have said if he doesn’t have a decent game Saturday, they’ll likely bench him for his next scheduled start. Tough times for Timmy Tim Super Freak.

[poopoo333]

Saturday betting tips: Rift in Ticats locker room?

WHO's HOT

MLB: Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Ryan Dempster's WHIP is 0.80.

MLB: Over is 21-6 in Phillies' last 27 road games.

WHO'S NOT

MLS: FC Dallas has yet to win on the road this season. They are 0-7-1 and play at Colorado on Saturday.

MLB: Nationals are 14-3 in Gio Gonzalez's last 17 starts

KEY STAT

20 - The number of losses the Boston Red Sox suffered in starts by Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, the two hurlers expected to be the staff aces this season.

GAME OF THE DAY

Toronto Argos vs. Hamilton Ti-Cats (-3.5, 56)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

On trouble in the Hamilton Tiger-Cats' dressing room after an 0-2 start to the season:

“I’m not going to tell you that there’s major problems in that locker room but they are certainly starting,” Darren Gill, who represents several Ticats told Team 990 Radio this week. “George Cortez is not known as a players’ coach and that’s been known from day one. He’s not brought the veterans on his side and it’s made it very difficult for him to try and get that team on the right page.”

Quarterback Henry Burris said there was "no stock" in Gill's comments. Hamilton is a 3.5-point home favorite vs. Toronto Saturday night.

TIPS AND NOTES

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch is reporting the Cardinals "should have all their prospective position players active for only the third game all season" this weekend, possibly Saturday. First baseman Lance Berkman has been out since late May after having surgery on his right knee and the team expects he'll return over the weekend.

According to the Courier-Post, the Phillies are on pace to become the first team in major league history to lose 90 games just one season after winning 100. The Phillies are 13 games below .500 heading into the weekend after winning a franchise record 102 games last year.

The Edmonton Eskimos' struggling offense will be without one of its most reliable receivers against B.C. on Saturday. Slotback Adarius Bowman tore his ACL and MCL in last week's game. He had over 1,0000 yards and four TDs last year and 145 yards and nine catches through two games this year.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Brewers Friday.

Saturday it’s the Brewers. The deficit is 572 sirignanos.

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Hondo

The Pirates ran aground last night in Milwaukee as the Brewers poured it on and caused Hondo's nasty numeral to grow to 1,440 sisks.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will give the ball to Tony "The Genius" La Russa's least favorite pitcher -- R.A. Dickey. Ten units on Bill Maher's Mets.

[poopoo333]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 870- 645 (57 %) over the last 4 years PLUS

Free play Sat: Cards w/ Lohse + 110

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Saturday

Phils/Rockies under 10.5

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Joe Wiz Free Play

Saturday Under 7 San Diego and L.A. Dodgers

has hit his last 5 in a row

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Today's CFL Picks

BC at Saskatchewan

The Lions look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road games. BC is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: BC (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 14 Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (7/10)

Game 125-126: BC at Saskatchewan (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: BC 118.788; Saskatchewan 114.696 Dunkel Line: BC by 4; 50 Vegas Line: BC by 2 1/2; 54 Dunkel Pick: BC (-2 1/2); Under

Game 127-128: Toronto at Hamilton (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 105.781; Hamilton 112.707 Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 7; 57 Vegas Line: Hamilton by 5; 53 Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-5); Over

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SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit -116 over BALTIMORE

The Tigers have won six in a row and they’ve batted .318/.370/.502 over their last 13 games. The Orioles have gone just 8-15 over their last 23 contests. Over that stretch the O's have scored just 2.8 RPG and sported an OPS well under .600 (.568). Max Scherzer is battling through another season of inconsistent results but his skills are some of the most electric in the game. He has 121 K’s in just 97 innings. His 4.72 actual ERA is almost 1½ runs higher than his xERA and when we see that we usually see some strong value with it. Scherzer has the goods to be one of the best pitchers in the second half and is way undervalued here pitching for the red-hot Tigers. Wei-Yin Chen is the complete opposite of Scherzer with an actual ERA that is lower than his xERA. He has outperformed his skills so far by a wide margin but it’s beginning to catch up to him. Behind his 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP are some underwhelming numbers that include a 37% groundball rate, an average strikeout rate, 15 home runs allowed and some rather ugly numbers with men are on base. This is a pitching mismatch with a solid opportunity to back an underpriced favorite.

L.A. Angels +128 over N.Y. YANKEES

Freddy Garcia is another example of how W/L records continue to be one of sports’ most misleading stats. He’s 3-2 in six starts. More notable is that he’s lost velocity each of the past three years, the quality starts are dwindling and his profile is trending the wrong way. Garcia has a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 36%/30%/34%. You would be hard pressed to find another pitcher in the league with a line-drive % that high. He’ll be running into a lineup that is seeing the ball very well lately with 48 runs scored and a .270 team batting average over the past 10 games. Garcia is fooling nobody and is even worse at home with a 7.13 ERA. Jerome Williams rebounded from being hit by a comebacker with six innings of two earned-run ball, 7/0 K/BB at AAA-Salt Lake City. He re-joins the rotation with a 3.87 xERA (83 IP) and the ability to generate groundballs at a 56% clip. Any pitcher that can do that gives his team a great chance to win and that chance certainly increases against a guy like Garcia.

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

CFL

GAME OF THE MONTH

6* OVER 54.5 Toronto vs. Hamilton (Saturday 7/14 7:00PM EST)

[Mr. IWS]

National Sports Service

L.A. Dodgers (HARANG) -140 over San Diego (VOLQUEZ)

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Toronto/ Cleveland Under 10: Last night just 1 run was scored in the game and while I don't see that happening here I do expect this game to be a pretty easy under. Since Aaron Laffey was put in the rotation he has had 3 very good starts, allowing just 5 ER's in the 3 starts combined. Those 3 teams he faced were Boston, the White Sox and the Angels, so he did it vs pretty good offenses. The Tribes offense has been pretty solid of late, putting up 5.8 rpg in their last 10 games, but they do hit just .231 vs lefties on the road, compared to .268 vs righties and they score just 4.05 rp/9 off of lefties on the road, compared to 5.07 rp/9 vs righties. T he Jays come in struggling slightly on offense, as they have scored 2 runs of fewer in 3 of their last 4 games and they will be taking on Ubaldo Jiminez, who has been pitching very well of late. In his last 7 starts Ubaldo has a 2.93 ERA and he has allowed 3 ER's or less in 7 of his last 10 starts. He does have a 5.36 ERA on the road, but in his last 4 away from home that ERA is 2.05. Both starters can and will shut down these offenses as this game hits 7 runs at best.

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo 7/14

906 Cubs -130 @ 1:05p
918 Yanks -140 @ 1:05p
920 Jays -120 @ 1:05p
903 Mets Even @ 4:05p
909 Cards +105 @ 4:05p
921 Tigers -110 @ 4:05p
912 Marlins -115 @ 7:10p
925 White Sox -125 @ 7:10p
927 Red Sox +140 @ 7:10p
929 Rangers -125 @ 9:10p