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7* TIGERS +101
7* TIGERS +101
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Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAY
3 UNIT PLAYS
Pittsburgh -122 over COLORADO: Gotta go with the huge pitching advantage that the Pirates have in this one. James McDonald comes in 9-3 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. On the road he has a 4-2 mark with a 3.97 ERA, while in his 7 day starts he is 3-1 with a skinny 1.85 ERA and an 0.87 WHIP. Now to the other side, we have Jeremy Guthrie who has pitched much better on the road than at Coors this year. On the road Jeremy has gone 2-4 with a solid 3.67 ERA, but in the thin air at Coors he has really struggled, going just 1-5 with a 9.23 ERA. He has a 1.85 WHIP and has allowed 12 HR's in just 39 innings at home. Pittsburgh doesn't have a great offense, but they do score much better on the road than at home and in this setting vs this pitcher their offense should have a good showing. Im still not sold on Pittsburgh lasting in the playoff race the whole second half, unless they get another big bat, but the Rockies are one of the worst teams in the league and have one of the worst home pitchers on the mound today. Look for Pittsburgh to take this one behind another solid outing from McDonald.
NY Yanks/ Toronto Under 10.5: I really wanted this play higher, but line movement has me playing it safe. Boy I did some digging on this one as you will see.The Jays are missing their top offensive threat and it really has showed as they have scored just 4 total runs in their last t games and i feel it will be very hard for them to score in this one. That's because they will be facing Hiroki Kuroda, who has been awesome in day starts this year. in 3 Day starts this year Hiroki has not allowed an ER just yet. he has allowed just 12 hits, with no walks and has 20 K's in his 23 innings of day work this year. He should really clamp down on an offensively challenged Jays squad here. Offensively the Yanks as as solid as ever, but sometimes when they have a dominant pitching edge or when they are big favorites their offense does just enough to get the win. Here are some stats t support this. The Yanks have been home faves of 169 or higher 19 times this year and have scored more than 6 runs just 4 times in those game, including just once in their last 14 in that situation. The Yanks have averaged just 4.9 rpg in those 19 games and on 1 of the last 14 when they are home faves of 169 or higher have put up more than 9 runs. You would think this offense would kill weak pitch and that those games would go way over, but the numbers say other wise. The Under is 21-5-1 in the Yanks last 27 games as a home favorite of 151-200 and the Under is 13-1 in their last 14 this year as a home favorite of 169 or higher. The final stat is the fact that Yankee day games have averaged 9.1 rpg, with the Under going 18-9 in those games. Even if the yanks put 6 runs on the board like the first 2 games, I just don't see Toronto coming close to to the 5 runs that would be needed for me to lose this one. Lets hope the numbers don't lie here.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Arizona +122 over CINCINNATI: Google News Play. Not usually a dog player, but I like this spot to take one here. The Reds lead their division, but the loss of Votto will start to hurt them. Last night the Reds won 4-0, but had just 5 hits and were aided by a ton of walk by Bauer, but that is some that won't happen here as Kenned has walked just 4 batters in his last 3 starts and he has walked just 14 batters in 63 innings on the road all year. Kennedy doe has a 4.00 ERA on the road, but with a respectable 1.24 WHIP. The Reds din't really show last night that they were able to string bunch of hits together and they will have to here, because Kennedy just doesn't give many free passes. Kennedy has faced the Reds twice in his career, (both last year) and he allowed just 2 ER's total in 13.1 innings of work. Mat Latos has been stellar for the Reds at home as he is 5-1 with a 3.20 ERA, But he only last 5 innings in his last home start (vs the Cards) and should struggle here vs a underrated D-Back offense. Mat has faced the D-Backs 4 times in his career, but just once outside of Petco and in that start he allowed 3 ER's on 4 hits and 4 walks in just 5.1 innings of work. Also if he does get pulled early bin this one, then he will be turning over the ball to a tired pen. The D-Backs pen has been solid with a 2.48 ERA in their last 10 games, so I say the edge should go to Arizona in the late innings. Look for Arizona to bounce back tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2004 the Reds are just 3-16 when they are off a win in which they had 5 or fewer hits and scored in at least 2 innings, as long as this is not the series opener.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAY
St Louis/ Milwaukee Under 9
San Francisco +110 over ATLANTA Google News Play
1 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia/ Dodgers Over 6.5
2 POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (8-8 -2.09 UNITS)
Since 2005 the Astros are 2-13 as a non-div road dog when seeking immediate revenge for for a 5+ run loss in which they were outhit by 5 or more hits. Play On San Diego -132 over Houston.
Since 2007 the Yanks are 31-4 when off a win as a favorite of 130+ in which they scored in at least 2 seperate innings and this is not game 1 of the series. Play on New York Yankees -177 over Toronto.Comment
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Stephen Nover MLB Money Line Wed, 07/18/12 - 8:10 PM
dime bet 929 SEA (+121) vs 930 KAN
Analysis: The Royals have lost 13 of their last 15 and seven of their past eight.
Seattle is playing better and in a stronger offensive groove having scored at least seven runs in three of its last four games.
Seattle starter Kevin Millwood hasn't won since May 23 but has a respectable 3.70 ERA since then. Royals starter Bruce Chen has a horrid 11.83 ERA in his last three games.
I'll take a 'dog price with the better pitcher and the hotter team.Comment
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401k Sports Wednesday Games
2** Milwaukee/St Louis under 9(2pm) - Thornburg, one of the rooks who fell flat in his MLB debut, is going to be a true stud pitcher. He allowed a few bloopers in his 1st start and then the big bomb once it snowballed for him. He has the stuff to bounce back here and have a solid game. Wainright still isn't back to 100% but he has looked better his last couple of starts. St Louis is struggling on offense now that Beltran has slowed down.
2** Pitt -130 over Colorado(3pm) - Day 6 of the Pitt 19 day challenge. right now we are 2-3 -1.2 units. This is the type of mismatch I have envisioned. Guthrie was all but offered to every team free of charge he has been so bad. his 9+ home era has been a major disappointment. McDonald has come into his own TY. He is much better at home, but he has more than held his own TY on the road as well. Let's put this chase into the + side today and run from there.
2** Chisox/Bosox under 11(7pm) - MLB debut of Pedro Hernandez for the south Siders. Like most young pitchers he has the 92-94 heater and a solid change up. You rarely see an 11 unless it is hot and sticky with the wind blowing out at Fenway. By Gametime, the showers should have blown through, leaving behind cool air. Dubront has been solid all year. Against a power heavy line up, I think his change will work well.
2** San Fran +110 over Atlanta(7pm) - False fave here if I have ever seen one. There may be something I am not seeing. Vogelsong has been as consistent as anyone in the majors this year. 15 of his 16 start have been quality starts. Minor has been the weakest of the Atlanta starters all year. Only 3 of his L12 starts have been quality starts. While SF doesn't have the best offense, they are quietly getting it donee nightly.
2** Seattle +115 over Kansas City(8pm) - How is a team that is just 3-12 over their L15, with a starter in Chen who has allowed 26 runs in 28 IP in his L6 starts favored? Millwood has been solid if not spectacular this year. he has allowed 1 or less runs in 6 of his starts. Tough to sweep a team on the road but KC is just awful right now.
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BOB BALFE
Angels -110 over Tigers
Wilson/Fister
The Angles put up a football score number against the Tigers last night blanking them 13-0. Usually the next day is always a let down, but their bats are hot and I think Wilson is the better starting pitcher. Detroit has not faced left handed pitching that much this year which favors the C.J Wilson. Look for the Angels to throw another gem today and to get the win. Take the Angels
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DOC SPORTS
3-unit Play Take #901 St. Louis Cardinals (-140) over Milwaukee Brewers (2:10pm EST)
The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers square off in the rubber game of their three-game set tonight in Miller Park. St. Louis finally is close to 100% healthy after struggling with injuries for the entire season. It's been a bit under the radar, but the Cardinals put more players on the disabled list in the first half than any other team in the National League. Maybe it's because they have decent depth and were able to plug in respectable replacements, but there's no question that this team is now better than its 47-44 record. Today they go with Adam Wainwright on the mound. The 30-year old right-hander is only 7-9 with a 4.62 ERA on the season, but he too can't be judged only by his statistics at this point. Wainwright came back from Tommy John surgery at the beginning of the season and it took him awhile to get comfortable again. In his recent outings, he's been pitching more like the Wainwright that everyone is accustomed to. Over his last six starts, he has a 3.99 ERA with a 37-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His confidence is back and I expect him to have a big second half as the Cardinals look to make a strong run at the National League Central title.
The Milwaukee Brewers seem to be having a tough time deciding if they should give up on the season and start trading away some of their assets to build for the future. At 43-47 they still have an outside chance of possibly getting back in the mix, but it would take a minor miracle. There have been a plethora of rumors surrounding the availability of Zack Greinke and a couple of other Brewer players, but nothing has come to fruition yet. Milwaukee rookie Tyler Thornburg will make only his second career start this afternoon. Thornburg has a smallish stature but throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a potentially-plus changeup. His curveball is inconsistent but his arm slot is too high to give him the option of switching to a slider. The right-hander's command and control both need work at this point. He doesn't seem like he's quite ready for the big leagues and I think a powerful St. Louis lineup is going to be a bit too much to handle in this one. Milwaukee also has some big issues in their bullpen right now and there's a good chance that will rear its ugly head today with a rookie making the start. Take the Cardinals in a game that could easily get out of hand in our favor.Comment
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Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
Tampa Bay/ Cleveland Under 8: (Added) Lets start off with a few trends here. The Under is 47-17-4 in the Rays last 64 home games vs a team with a losing road record... The Under is 21-3-2 in Hellickson's last 36 home games with a total set at 7 to 8.5... The Under is 4-1 the last 5 meetings here... The Under is 13-5 when umpire Dan Issognas is behind home plate. Jeremy Hellickson has always pitched well in this park as he has a 2.72 Career ERA here, but a 11-10 home record would indicate allot of low scoring games. This year just 6.1 rpg have been scored in his home starts and the UNDER is 7-1 in those games. Jeremy was rocked for 8 ER's a few weeks ago at home by the Mets, but an injury may have been the cause of that as he went on the DL right after that game. In his last 10 starts that was the only game in which he allowed more than 3 ER's and not one of the other 9 games saw more than 8 runs scored. Jeremy has faced Cleveland once this year and once last year and has allowed just 2 total ER's in 13 innings of work in the two games, with neither game putting up more than 7 runs. Justin Masterson was rocked for 8 ER's vs the Rays a couple of starts ago, but in this park the Rays offense is not as good as they have scored just 3.92 rpg here, compared to 4.4 rpg on the road. Still Justin has allowed 1 ER or less in 5 of his last 7 outings and should have a better showing vs the Rays then he did two weeks ago. I look for 6 runs at the most here.Comment
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