7-31-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[poopoo333]

Teddy's Vegas Wiseguy Report: Late Season Baseball
Ted Sevransky

Teddy's Vegas Wiseguy Report: Late Season Baseball

NFL training camps open up around the country this coming weekend. The start of fall practice for college football isn’t far behind. Wiseguy bettors are spending a good portion of their time focusing on football right now. We’ve got a rapidly maturing NFL Season win total marketplace, both here in Vegas and offshore. Odds to win the NFL Divisions are up. Week 1 numbers are available at multiple sportsbooks.

The first preseason Week 1 pointspreads are now on the radar screen, as are the Week 1 college football pointspreads – the games are already loaded into the system on my SportsOptions Live Odds screen. College football season win totals are up as are odds to win the various conferences. Best of all, just about every day from here through the ‘real’ start of football season at the end of August, we’ll see fresh numbers on a daily basis at one sportsbook or another.

So what happens when the betting markets shift their focus towards football? After all, we’re only ten days out from the All Star break – there’s more than two full months of regular season baseball still to play. There isn’t a team in either league that has completed more than 96 games of their 162 game schedule as I write this on Sunday Night – every team in both leagues still has at least 3/8 of their schedule to complete.

Yet any sportsbook director in town will tell you that the interest level for betting baseball really starts to dwindle around this time of the year. Casual bettors who have struggled tend to walk away from MLB, waiting for football to start. Casual bettors who have earned a profit also shift their focus – football is king for most amateur bettors; baseball is something to bet on when there’s no hoops or football available to wager on.

Wiseguy bettors are no different from the amateurs in this regard. Sharp bettors seem to get frustrated with baseball’s random results (blown saves, late rallies, bullpen meltdowns and seemingly improbable occurrences on a regular basis) more than they get frustrated by the equally random results that occur in football (turnovers, red zone failures, special teams miscues and another set of seemingly improbable circumstances that seem to occur on a regular basis).

In casual conversation around town with other bettors, I’ve heard more than a handful of successful, long term winning bettors eschew the second half of the MLB season. Their money is tied up in football bets, leaving their bankroll less ‘liquid’ than it is at other times of the year.

That leaves a baseball betting marketplace that quite literally gets smaller by the day in late July and August, before the pennant races start to heat up in September. The action at this time of the year is truly dominated by computer formula driven syndicates. Even when that September money starts to flow again, baseball must share the spotlight with football. The next time MLB will be on center stage for sports bettors won’t be until 2013.

So what happens when the betting markets for a ‘major’ sport lose many of their casual bettors and more than a handful of wiseguys as well? The nuances of the marketplace change, often rather dramatically. We’re ten days out of the All Star break, and already, we’ve seen all the ‘what to watch for in the second half’ articles come and go from sportsbetting sites and even major media outlets. Once the trading deadline passes only July 31st, we won’t see much more mainstream MLB content that doesn’t involve potential playoff teams and division or wild card races.

So, how do the sharp bettors that are still focusing on baseball approach this stage of the season; a time of the year where computer generated numbers hold significant sway in the betting markets? I’ll spend the rest of this week’s article breaking it down.

These are the dogs days of summer; the time of the year where bad teams and bad pitching staffs simply aren’t capable of ‘stepping up’ on a regular basis. The prices for favorites really start to go up in the second half -- we'll start to see -300 or higher chalk shortly when good teams play 'dead' ones.

The Houston Astros are a prime example. On May 25th, the Astros were one game under .500; sitting in third place in the NL Central with a 22-23 record. In the nearly two months since that span, the Astros have gone 12-39 playing consistently awful baseball. This past weekend, we saw Houston as a $2 underdog multiple times at Arizona (a team with a losing record) against the likes of Josh Collmenter and Wade Miley – solid pitchers, but not aces.

Obviously, those type of high prices to fade the very worst teams makes it more expensive to lay the price with the superior team. That being said, bettors who are willing to lay the big chalk (something many sharp bettors are reluctant to do) can enjoy real success at this time of the year. That being said there are occasional times where I'll pull the trigger on a +250 dog simply because ‘the price is right’, wagers that I wouldn't have bet at a +200 price point in the first half of the campaign.

Sharp bettors are definitely looking for overworked pitchers (particularly those who haven't thrown 200+ innings at the major league level before) to start to wear down in the summer heat. Matt Harrison, Ivan Nova, Tommy Milone and James McDonald stand out as potential guys who have thrown 120+ innings already (all ranked among the top 35 in MLB in innings pitched so far this year) without a proven history of 200+ inning seasons.

Bad bullpens tend to get worse in the hot summer months, before the September call-ups reinforce the corps. Teams like the Mets, Cardinals, Brewers and White Sox are all in playoff contention right now, despite continued bullpen struggles. They're all being priced like contenders here in the second half, but without bullpen reinforcements, they're all in danger of dropping out of the race. Over bettors love struggling bullpens and dog bettors love ‘false favorites’ that can’t hold late inning leads.

Bullpen statistics correlate very strongly with MLB profitability. Of the top eight teams in profits so far this season (the Pirates, A’s, Orioles, Nationals, Giants, Reds, Yankees and Dodgers), six of them rank in the top eight in bullpen ERA. And among the bottom feeders in terms of profitability, six of the worst seven performing teams have bullpens ranked among the bottom ten in the majors in ERA (the Phillies, Astros, Rockies, Brewers, Marlins and Cubs).

Bettors who do nothing but handicap bullpens can have a field day betting into lines that have starting pitching matchups as their basis for the moneylines. Remember, ‘capping bullpens requires legwork – you’ve got to watch the games, read the local papers and chart the bullpens while tracking who is ‘fresh’ on a daily basis. Computer generated algorithms don’t do this particular task very well, leaving a nice window of opportunity for bettors willing to put in the time.

Pitching Sabermetric stats are another thing that wiseguy bettors strongly consider for the second half. Non elite pitchers with very low BABIP's (guys who have been on the lucky side in the first half) are primed to decline; guys like James McDonald, Jason Vargas, Ryan Vogelsong and Edwin Jackson.

On the other hand, pitchers who have been more unlucky in the first half when it comes to the batting average on balls in play, (high BABIP's), are primed to show improvement. Pitchers like James Shields, Josh Johnson, Ian Kennedy, Adam Wainwright and Felix Hernandez all fit into this category as potential ‘bet-on’ hurlers.

FIP (fielding independent pitching) stats are another strong sabermetric tool to show what pitchers have overachieved and underachieved through the first half. Pitchers like Zack Grienke, Josh Johnson and Felix Hernandez are poised to improve; Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez and Ricky Romero not so much.....

Last but not least, sharp bettors attack late season baseball by looking for and expecting teams to morph down the stretch. The 2011 MLB season had numerous classic ‘September morph’ situations, like the Red Sox 7-20 collapse and the Braves 9-18 debacle, the Rangers 19-6 surge, the Cardinals 18-8 push and the Tigers 20-6 domination. Sub .500 teams like Baltimore and KC finished September with winning records and big profits for their supporters.

Wiseguys pay attention, because not many others are! Remember, both moneylines and totals are influenced more by season long numbers than by current form and matchup or situational nuances. Follow those September morphs closely and you'll make money every year.

[poopoo333]

Tuesday's betting tips: Reds scorching hot without Votto

Weather to watch

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals: A 40 percent chance of thunderstorms could spoil a fantastic pitching matchup between Cliff Lee and Stephen Strasburg.

Who’s hot?

The Atlanta Braves have won five straight heading into Monday’s contest with the Marlins. Atlanta pitchers have held opponents to three runs or fewer in each of the club’s last five victories.

Who’s not?

The Kansas City Royals have lost five straight games and are 2-8 in their last 10 contests. The Royals begin a six-game home stand Tuesday when they host the Indians.

Key stat

.141 – Josh Hamilton’s batting average in July. The Rangers slugger entered the month at a .319 clip with 25 home runs. His four straight games played without a hit matches the second-longest such streak of his career.

Game of the day

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Carl Crawford – The Red Sox outfielder said he’ll decide in the next 7-10 days whether or not to undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery on his ailing left elbow.

Betting notes

- Pirates right-hander pitcher Kevin Correia asked the team for a trade Sunday. Correia was bumped from the starting rotation last week when the Bucs acquired lefty Wandy Rodriguez from the Astros.

- Yankees general manager Brian Cashman expects left-hander Andy Pettitte (ankle) to return sometime in September and be available for the playoffs. Pettitte was initially projected to miss six weeks when he suffered the fracture on June 27.

-The Reds are 11-2 without star 1B Joey Votto, who is eligible to come off the disabled list Tuesday but has not yet resumed baseball activities.

- Third baseman Chris Johnson was the latest to escape Houston as he was dealt to Arizona for two minor leaguers Sunday. He became the sixth player traded by the Astros this month.

[poopoo333]

Tuesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

STREAKING

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds (9-6, 3.53 ERA)

Bailey is a major reason why the Reds are 17-2 since the All-Star break and riding a 10-game winning streak into Monday. The righty hasn’t taken a loss since June 27 and is 4-0 in his last five starts. The right-hander has a 1.43 ERA over five July starts and should continue to dominate in his next start against the lowly Padres.

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals (10-2, 2.71 ERA)

Lohse has emerged as the staff ace in the absence of Chris Carpenter. The 33-year-old hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his last seven starts and owns a 2.36 ERA in July. The right-hander hasn’t taken a loss since June 15, and the Cardinals are 5-1 in his last six starts. His next outing is on the road in Colorado.

SLUMPING

James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays (8-7, 4.52 ERA)

Shields continues to be the subject of trade rumors with the Tuesday deadline approaching. The Rays reportedly declined a trade offer for the big righty from the Angels on Thursday that would have sent speedy outfielder Peter Bourjos to Tampa Bay. Shields hasn’t responded well to the rumors, allowing 22 earned runs in 32 July innings. If Shields is still in a Rays’ uniform Tuesday, he’ll take the mound against the red-hot A’s.

Derek Lowe, Cleveland Indians (8-9, 5.09 ERA)

Since starting the season 6-1, Lowe is 2-8 with a 7.59 ERA over his last 12 starts. The sinker-baller has taken the loss in his last three outings, surrendering 16 earned runs in 15 innings pitched. With the Indians losing ground in the Wild Card race, manager Manny Acta is considering skipping Lowe’s next turn in the rotation if he doesn’t put together a strong performance against the Royals on Tuesday.

[poopoo333]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Strasburg is 2-0, 2.45 in his last three starts.
-- Bailey is 4-0, 2.15 in his last five starts. Padres won last three Marquis starts (3-0, 4.91), scoring 22 runs.
-- Burnett is 2-0, 1.80 in his last couple starts.
-- Lohse is 4-0, 2.22 in his last seven starts. Francis is 1-0, 1.69 in his last three home starts.
-- Miley is 2-1, 3.50 in his last three starts.
-- Rookie Harvey didn't allow a run in 5.1 IP (106 PT) in his major league debut at Arizona last week.

-- Tillman is 2-0, 2.12 in his last couple starts.
-- Verlander is 3-1, 2.25 in his last four starts.
-- Weaver is 7-0, 1.74 in his last seven starts. Holland is 2-1, 3.86 in his last four outings.
-- Milone has a 1.47 RA in his last five home starts.
-- Vargas is 4-0, 1.85 in his last six starts. Laffey is 2-0, 4.08 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Lee is 1-3, 5.37 in his last eight starts.
-- Nolasco is 0-3, 7.56 in his last three starts. Medlen was
-- Dempster is 0-2, 5.25 in his last couple starts, after his scoreless streak.
-- Gallardo is 0-2, 9.28 in his last couple starts. Keuchel is 0-3, 9.60 in his last three starts.
-- Capuano is 1-3, 7.04 in his last four starts.
-- Lincecum is 1-3, 7.18 in five July starts.

-- Nova is 0-1, 5.09 in his last three starts.
-- Beckett is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
-- Lowe is 1-3, 9.23 in his last five starts. Hochevar is 0-1, 7.20 in his last three outings.
-- Liriano, who a Twin until this weekend, is 0-2, 7.02 in his last three starts. Blackburn is 0-2, 9.45 in his last four starts.
-- Shields is 0-2, 6.66 in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won eight of its last nine games.
-- Reds' 10-game winning streak ended last night.
-- Braves won nine of their last eleven home games.
-- Padres are 16-10 in their last 26 games.
-- Cubs won ten of last 13 games at Wrigley.
-- Dodgers won eight of their last eleven games.

-- Red Sox won their last three games, scoring 18 runs.
-- Minnesota won its last four games, scoring 35 runs. White Sox won five of their last seven games.
-- A's won 19 of their last 23 games. Tampa Bay is 6-4 in last ten on road.
-- Mariners won eight of their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Phillies lost their last three games, scoring four runs.
-- Pirates lost their last two games, allowing 23 runs.
-- Astros lost 27 of their last 30 games. Brewers lost nine of their last 11.
-- Rockies lost six of their last seven games. St Louis lost four of its last five games on foreign soil.
-- Arizona lost seven of its last ten road games.
-- Mets lost 14 of their last 18 games. San Francisco lost its last five games, outscored 32-12.

-- Bronx lost seven of its last ten games. Baltimore lost five of its last eight.
-- Detroit lost five of their last seven games.
-- Rangers are 4-7 in their last 11 games. Angels are 3-8 in game following their last 11 wins.
-- Kansas City lost its last five games, allowing 32 runs. Indians lost their last three games, outscored 28-6.
-- Toronto is 6-7 in its last 13 games.

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Philly games went over the total.
-- Eight of last twelve Miami games stayed under.
-- 11 of last 16 San Diego games went over the total.
-- Under is 11-4 in Cubs' last fifteen games.
-- Over is 10-4 in Houston's last 14 games, 6-2 in Brewers' last eight.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Colorado games.
-- Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Arizona games.
-- Over is 15-7-2 in Mets' last 24 games, 9-4 in Giants' last 13.

-- Ten of last thirteen Baltimore games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Detroit games.
-- 18 of last 24 Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-2 in Kansas City's last nine games.
-- Eight of last nine Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Eleven of last fourteen Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Under is 25-8 in last thirty-three Seattle games.

Umpires
-- Phil-Wash-- Don't know who the umpires is here.
-- Mia-Atl-- Over is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Drake games.
-- SD-Cin-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Marquez games.
-- Pitt-Chi-- Home side won nine of last twelve Nelson games.
-- Hst-Mil-- Knight's last three games all went over the total.
-- StL-Col-- Don't know who umpires are here.
-- Az-LA-- Underdogs are 5-4 in last nine Davis games.
-- NY-SF-- Last seven Miller games stayed under the total.

-- Blt-NY-- Seven of last nine Cousins games stayed under.
-- Det-Bos-- Six of last eight Layne games stayed under total.
-- LA-Tex-- Underdogs won six of last seven Reynolds games.
-- Cle-KC-- Don't know who umpires are here.
-- Chi-Min-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Muchlinski games.
-- TB-A's-- Underdogs won five of last six Hickox games.
-- Tor-Sea-- Four of last five Tichenor games went over total.

[poopoo333]

Today's MLB Picks

Tampa Bay at Oakland

The A's look to build on their 7-1 record in Tom Milone's last 8 home starts. Oakland is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, JULY 31 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 14.283; Washington (Strasburg) 16.064 Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 7 Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Over

Game 953-954: Miami at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 13.930; Atlanta (Medlen) 16.422 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-155); Under

Game 955-956: San Diego at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Marquis) 16.659; Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.697 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-180); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Over

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 15.960; Cubs (Dempster) 15.581 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-105); N/A

Game 959-960: Houston at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 14.837; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 13.728 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-260); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+220); Over

Game 961-962: St. Louis at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 16.380; Colorado (Francis) 14.022 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 10 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Under

Game 963-964: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 16.630; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 15.500 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Under

Game 965-966: NY Mets at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Harvey) 14.628; San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.255 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+130); Over

Game 967-968: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.012; NY Yankees (Nova) 14.264 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+160); Under

Game 969-970: Detroit at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.279; Boston (Beckett) 14.844 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Over

Game 971-972: LA Angels at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.746; Texas (Holland) 14.339 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Under

Game 973-974: Cleveland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lowe) 13.500; Kansas City (Hochevar) 13.878 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Over

Game 975-976: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Liriano) 14.569; Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.973 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-145); 9 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); Under

Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.669; Oakland (Milone) 16.710 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115); Over

Game 979-980: Toronto at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Laffey) 15.595; Seattle (Vargas) 16.142 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-115); Under

[poopoo333]

Joe Wiz Free Play

Under 10 1/2 St. Louis and Colorado

[poopoo333]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Yankees Monday.

Tuesday it’s the Braves. The deficit is 307 sirignanos.

Lost last three
16-5 in his last 21 picks

[poopoo333]

Hondo

The Dodgers’ Harang couldn’t be bothered with providing assistance to the Hondo Deficit-Reduction Plan last night, so the dirty digits ballooned to 1,645 madlocks.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will tee it up with the fab foursome of Strasburg, Burnett, Harvey and Verlander (over Slosh Beckett) – 10 units apiece on the Nats, Bucs, Bill Maher’s Mets and Tigers.

[poopoo333]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 878- 652 (57 %) over the last 4 years PLUS

Free play Tues: Pirates pk

[poopoo333]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Tuesday

Astros / Brewers over 8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers TEXAS +105 over L.A. Angels Jered Weaver has won seven straight games to run his record to 13-1 with a 2.26 ERA. However, we’re still not buying that he’s this good because the skills suggest otherwise. Weaver has pinpoint control (26 BB) and a decent strikeout rate of 89 k’s in 116 innings. However, he has a fly-ball bias profile and has been greatly aided by an 81% strand rate. With a fly-ball bias profile, it’s no surprise that Weaver has posted an 11.15 ERA while losing his last three starts at this park. In 86 career innings here, covering 14 starts, Weaver has two wins, seven losses and a 5.31 ERA. His xERA of 3.71 is 1½-runs higher than his actual ERA. Weaver isn’t quite the dominant pitcher that his surface stats indicate and this park is testament to that. Derek Holland has given up three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts since coming off the disabled list. The velocity in his fastball dropped from 94.1 MPH to 91 MPH before his DL stint (shoulder fatigue) but he’s picked it up again and could be in for a strong stretch run. Texas is still an offensive powerhouse while Jered Weaver is overvalued here. TEXAS +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

[Mr. IWS]

Easy Baseball Betting

Our systems say to go for:

Orioles (+167)

Padres (+161)

Phillies (+130)

Twins (+120)

Rangers (+106)

Indians (+111)

Astros (+222)

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

5* - Oakland A`s ML

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

DET (-130) @ BOS [4:10pm PDT]

PIT (-105) @ CHC [5:05pm PDT] <-bet 'action' not 'listed pitcher'

ARI @ LAD UNDER 7.5 (-125) [7:10pm PDT]

ARI @ LAD (-125) [7:10pm PDT]

BAL @ NYY OVER 9.5 (-110) [4:05pm PDT]

STL (-140) @ COL [5:40pm PDT]

TB @ OAK UNDER 7 (-120) [7:05pm PDT]