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Jeff Benton
20 Dime STL. Cardinals
20 Dime STL. Cardinals
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Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAYS
St Louis -139 over COLORADO: St Louis had a day off to stew over losing 2 of 3 in Chicago. Yes they lost the last 2 in Chgicago, but the Cubs have played really well at home of late. Just ask Pittsburgh. After that series and the fact that Cincinnati just swept Colorado here this is a very big series for the Cards as they look for a return to the post season. The Rockies are just 20-32 in their own park this year, including just 2-9 in their last 11 here. Pitching for the Rockies have been a big problem for them as they come in with a 5.87 ERA in their last 10, while they have a 5.84 ERA in their home games on the year. A ****ty staff in this park does not add up to a lot of wins. Tonight Jeff Francis gets the call and while the Rockies are 3-1 in his home starts, he does have a 5.12 ERA in those starts. Making it tougher for him tonight is the fact that he will be facing a Cardinals team that averages 5.8 rpg vs lefties on the year and they have gone 19-11 vs them. The Rockies do average 5.73 rpg at home, but they have struggled of late, averaging just 3.5 rpg in their last 11 at Coors. It won't get easier for them tonight as they face Kyle Lohse, who has been very good for them this year. Kyle is 10-2 with a 2.71 ERA overall and 5-1 with a 2.81 ERA on the road. Kyle has faced the Rockies 4 times from 2010 till now and he has allowed just 5 ER's total in the four starts, while in his lone start here over that stretch he went won the game allowing just 2 ER's in 6 innings of work. The Rockies will play the roll of spoiler the rest of this year, but with their pitching they just won't be able to handle the roll. The need this one much more and clearly have the edge on the mound and should take game one here.
NY Mets/ San Francisco Over 6.5: Tim Lincecum has pitched pretty well of late and he does own a 3.90 ERA at home with those games averaging just 6.4 rpg, but he also has a 5.53 ERA at night and those games have averaged 9.79 rpg. He has pitched well vs the Mets in his career (1.09 ERA L5 Starts vs them), but will be taking on a team that has averaged 5.1 rpg away from home on the year. Vs righties on the road the Mets have hit .271 and have scored 5.6 rp/9 innings off of them. The Giant offense is not that great, but could be upgraded tonight after the trade deadline and they did show signs of breaking out last night, by pounding out 16 hits and 7 runs in the 8-7 loss. Matt Harvey has a great debut vs the D-Backs, but still this is just his second career start and he wasn't all that superb in the minors this year, so I look for a desperate Giants offense to get some hits and runs off of him. I don't expect either strter to go the distance here and that means the Pens come into play. The Mets have the worst pen ERA on the road (5.53), while the Giants pen has been knocked around of late with a 4.75 ERA in their last 10 games. Last night the pens combined to allow 9 ER's combined in the 8, 9th and 10th innings and we could see more of the same tonight. This game could flirt with double digits.
Detroit -125 over BOSTON: Google News Play Justin Verlander is one of the besat pitchers in baseball and he know how to bounce back from a tough outing. In his 4 starts following a game in which he has allowed 4 ER's or more he is a perfect 4-0 with a 2.22 ERA and if you include his outing the All-Star game then he has gone 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA following those tough outings. Verlander is also 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA in his last 6 starts vs the Sox. Josh Beckett has really struggled for Boston and he is 2-5 with a 4.55 ERA and he has gone 2-7 with a 5.27 ERA at night on the year. Boston is just 2-9 in his night starts. He is also 0-3 with a 6.62 ERA in his last 3 starts vs Detroit. The Sox have played well of late, but may be without Becket and Jarod S. for this one, plus Ortiz is out and Detroit needs a big win. With or without Beckett I like Detroit in this one.
Philadelphia/ Washington Over 6.5: Stephen Strasburg is coming close to his 160 inning pitch limit this year, so I don't see him going too deep in this one. That will give the ball over to a Nats pen that has a 4.74 ERA in it's last 10 games. Lets also note that in Stephens last 5 starts their pen has allowed 14 total runs once he has left the game. I Know the Phils offense has been struggling and they will be without Victorino and maybe Pence for this one, but they still have some pop ion their bats and they do average 4.4 rpg on the road, including 4.1 rpg in games that Lee has started. Speaking of Lee, He may be traded by game time, but if he isn't he comes in with a 3.54 ERA on the road and a 4.12 ERA at night on the year. He has made 3 career starts in this park and has a 4.21 ERA in those starts. The Nationals have cranked it up offensively as they have averaged 5.5 rpg in their last 10 games. They average just 4.1 rpg at home, but in their last 14 in this park they have cranked out 5.4 rpg. I know the Phils roster may look very different tonight, but even if Lee doesn't start, whoever does would still be a downgrade from him. The Phils should get 1 or two off of Strasburg and they get a few more once he is out of there. Look for at least 8 runs in this one.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
SAN FRANCISCO -145 over NY Mets: Google News Play
Miami/ Atlanta Under 8.5
1 UNIT PLAYS
Seattle/ Toronto Under 7
Chicago -145 over MINNESOTA
2 POWER ANGLES FOR TONIGHT (13-3 RUN) (22-11 +8.21 UNITS)
Since 2009 Toronto is 1-32 as a road dog when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they had a least 4 wealks and did not hold a lead of 3+ runs in that game. Play on Seattle -122 over Toronto
Play on any team that averages 4.1 rpg or less with a starter that has a WHIP of 1.450 to 1.550 vs a team that has a bullpen ERA of 5.00 or higher. This play is 32-14 since 1997. Play On San Francisco -145 over NY Mets
***It was a rough night last night as I went 2-6 overall and 1-3 in my top plays. Ouch. That was my first losing night in over two weeks. Let's start another run todayComment
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Fantasy Sports Gametime
Baseball Tuesday
100* Play Milwaukee (-250) over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 8:10 PM EST
Houston has lost 19 of the last 21 road games as an underdog of +175 to +250 and they have also lost 21 of the last 24 games when playing in the month of July. Houston has lost 66 of the last 91 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have lost 31 of the last 39 games when batting .240 or worse over the last twenty games.
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50* Play NY Yankees (-180) over Baltimore (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Cincinnati (-180) over San Diego (MLB BONUS PLAY)Comment
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David Banks
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Most experts felt that the American League West would be a two-horse race
between the Los Angeles Angels (55-47) and the Texas Rangers (59-41) before
the season, and while Oakland is doing its best to crash the party, the
experts will probably be right in the end. To that end, the Angels entered this
series in third place and five games behind the division leading Rangers
while trailing the second-place Athletics by one-half game, so this series
appears to be more crucial for Los Angeles, which does not want to fall further
behind. The Angels certainly appear to have the pitching advantage when the
teams meet Tuesday night at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX at 8:05 ET in a
game that can be seen nationally on MLB Network.
The Halos were shut out over the weekend by the Tampa Bay Rays while
suffering tough losses by scores of 3-0 and 2-0 respectively, so to say that the
offense needs to wake up would be a gross understatement. The pitching
performances over the weekend were certainly encouraging though and that figures
to be the case again on Tuesday with a Cy Young Award candidate in Jered
Weaver on the mound. Weaver is personally a remarkable 13-1 with the Angels as a
team going 15-3 in the games that he has started, as he has an American
League leading 2.26 ERA to go along with a scintillating 0.95 WHIP over 115.2
innings! Weaver has not been striking out as many batters as of late as he
was earlier in the season, but he still has a fine ratio of 89 strikeouts vs.
26 walks and he has continued to get batters out, allowing two runs or less
in six of his seven starts since coming off of the Disabled List on June
20th. This stretch includes a brilliant start vs. these Rangers in Anaheim 10
days ago when allowed only one run and six hits in seven innings of a 6-1
Angels' victory. Weaver could be catching Texas at the perfect time too as it
is batting an uncharacteristic .233 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last
10 games heading into Monday's series opener, with even Josh Hamilton
starting to hear some boos from the usually supportive home crowd.
The Rangers are just 4-6 in their last 10 games overall entering Monday,
allowing the Angels and even the A's to hang around, and the only reason Texas
has four wins in that span is because the starting pitchers have a
collective 3.78 ERA. Tuesday starter Derek Holland got one of those wins last
Wednesday when he posted a Quality Start against the Red Sox, allowing three runs
on only five hits in 7.2 innings. Holland is having a very erratic season as
he is 7-5 with a 4.74 ERA, and he will need to be at his best vs. a pitcher
of Weaver's caliber for Texas to have a chance here. With that said Holland
is actually on a pretty good cycle right now as he has allowed three runs
or less in four of his last five starts. That is the good news, but the bad
news is that the one bad start in Holland's last five outings came vs. these
Angels, who roughed him up for six earned runs on nine hits in 6.2 innings
when also matched up with Weaver on July 20th. Furthermore, Holland has not
handled the wind tunnel blowing out in Arlington well as he has a bloated
5.94 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his home stadium. Yes, the Angels were held scoreless
on Saturday and Sunday, but they still rank second in the American League
behind these Rangers with a .269 team batting average.
The Angels as a team have gone 7-3 the last 10 times that Weaver has
started against Texas and the Halo lead the season series 5-4 so far in 2012,
although the Rangers won two of the three meetings in Arlington pending Monday's
result.
Pick: Under 9.5Comment
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LEGIT PICKS
Tuesday 7/31/12 Plays...
4* BLUEJAYS/MARINERS (OVER)
---SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success-Comment
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