| Bryan Leonard MLB Total Fri, 08/03/12 - 8:10 PM triple-dime bet 927 TEX / 928 KAN Over 9.5 Analysis: Texas @ Kansas City Matt Harrison takes the mound for Texas and he's due for a little bit of regression. He's pitched exceptionally well for making eight of his 19 starts in Texas. He's been even better on the road, with a 3.01 ERA in 11 starts. Harrison enters the start with a 3.19 ERA, but a FIP of 3.76, a FIP of 4.13, and a SIERA of 4.27. SIERA is a saber metric stat that measures "Skill-Indicative" ERA. Harrison's 4.27 would be considered "below average", as 3.90 to 4.20 is considered "average". Basically, what SIERA says is that because Harrison's strikeout numbers are down and he's allowing more contact, he should be allowing more hits. More hits means more base runners and more base runners means more runs. Harrison's BABip and left on base percentage are both below his career averages, while his strikeout percentage has gone down. This points to Harrison getting relatively lucky. In regards to the Texas lineup, they're having their way with Anaheim and that should continue given the pitching match up. Jeremy Guthrie has been awful all season long. The amazing thing about Guthrie is that pitchers with high ERAs usually have lower FIPs because they're just getting unlucky or plagued by bad defense. Guthrie's 6.68 ERA is followed up by a 6.37 FIP, so he's pitching as bad as his ERA would indicate. He's striking out fewer hitters, he's walking more hitters, he's giving up a home run every four innings. It's been a year to forget for Guthrie. The Royals offense got on track against the Indians and they're playing pretty good ball right now. The Royals also excel at stealing bases and Mike Napoli is only throwing out 20% of runners this season. Teams haven't run much on Harrison this year, but the Royals are in "What do we have to lose?" mode and could take off at will. PLAY: TEX/KC OVER |
| Dave Essler MLB Total Fri, 08/03/12 - 8:10 PM triple-dime bet 925 ANA / 926 CWS Over 8.5 Analysis: This one's got a million ways to get to nine, and at nine it's a push so yes, if it does go there I'd still play it. Most people will be thinking that the Angels will just mash Humber, and they may well do that, but I don't think so. That series in Texas took a tool physically because of the heat and obvious emotionally because of last night's collapse. And of course their bullpen was seriously used. So, I think it's actually Chicago that scores here. They're in first place, need to win (obviously) and had yesterday off. If you look at the NL pitchers coming to the AL they tend to have a little more difficult time because there's no DH hence no pitcher to pitch around. I know Zach was in the AL before, but Zach has documented emotional issues at times and when was the last time he pitched in a game that actually matte‹red. Not very often. And at US Cellular, when he was with the Royals, he had a 5.49 ERA and gave up 13 bombs in about 59 innings, so Chicago will score here. And even IF Humber has some good stuff, he is simply not going to shutout even a tired Angels team. He's given up ten bombs in only 37 innings at home this season, while walking 24 batters. That's just not very good. We give a huge edge to the White Sox bullpen, both from a recent statistical standpoint as well as being quite rested. In the end we actually see Chicago potentially winning this game, hence the RL play, and our numbers have it at about 7-4 Pale Hose |
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