8-3-12

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

COLORADO +141 over San Francisco

The Rockies have been out of this race since May. For them, this is a season to forget but every team loves to make life miserable for those battling to make the playoffs and Colorado is no different. The Rockies defeated the Cardinals last night 8-2 to snap a five-game losing streak. They’ve scored 20 times over their past three games.

Ryan Vogelsong faces the Rockies for the second time in less than a week. In typical Vogelsong fashion, he escaped his last start against these Rockies virtually unscathed (7 IP, 1 ER) despite a dismal 3/5 K/BB ratio, as his string of unprecedented luck continued. His unusually high 86% strand rate will not and cannot last. Every mediocre pitcher has his implosions days and Vogelsong is ripe for one at this unforgiving venue.

This should be an intriguing start for Jonathan Sanchez. Everything was going swimmingly with him when he was a Giant from ’06 to ’11 before they traded him to the Royals. Since that trade, life in the big leagues has been tough indeed. Sanchez now gets a chance to pay back the team that traded him to Kansas City and he couldn’t have picked a better time to face the punchless Giants.

San Fran has dropped seven of eight and in half of those games they scored one run or less. In a three game set in L.A. last weekend, they scored three times. If Jonathan Sanchez has a good game left in him, now is the time to display it, as the Giants remain in a big time funk.

CINCINNATI -1½ +153 over Pittsburgh

Pivotal series for both teams, as the Pirates could make the battle for first very interesting should they win the series, while the Reds could stretch their 3½ game lead to 4½ or 6½ with a series win and/or sweep.

Pittsburgh’s Wandy Rodriguez makes his second start for his new club. In his first start against his former Astros club, he walked five and gave up three runs in six innings. Over the past month, his strikeout rate, walks and induced groundballs are all trending the wrong way. Rodriguez had been with the Astros for his entire career before this trade to Pittsburgh. He has never pitched a meaningful game in August but will do so here. In three starts against the Reds this season, Rodriguez has a 6.35 ERA. Current Cincinnati hitters have a .272 average against him in a combined 290 AB’s. He hasn’t fooled the Reds this season and with added pressure and throwing at Great American, it’s likely that he won’t fool them here either.

Cincy’s Mat Latos is coming on strong. Latos threw a gem in his last outing (8 IP, 2 ER, 8 Ks) at Coors Field no less. Against the Pirates, back in early May when he was laboring, Latos fanned 11 Pirates. He has 117 K’s against 40 walks and over the last month his xERA is just 2.92. The Pirates have had it easy since the break with two series against the Cubs and other sets against the Marlins, Astros and Rockies. A giant step up in class is likely going to bring different results.

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Jones

Chicago Cubs +144

The Chicago Cubs are showing excellent value Friday. Jeff Samardzija is killing opponents of late. The right-hander sports a 7-8 record with a 4.19 ERA on the season with 121 strikeouts in 120 1/3 innings.

Samardzija is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA over his last three starts, giving up three earned runs over 19 innings. He's up against Chad Billingsley, who is 6-9 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 20 starts. Billingsley is 1-4 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in nine home starts in 2012.

The Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Chicago is 4-1 in Samardzija's last 5 starts. The Dodgers are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 1-7 in its last 8 home games. Bet the Cubs Friday.

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Price

NY Yankees -1.5 -123

The Yankees get the nod on the run line as our free play because of how dominant Sabathia has been against the Mariners. He is 7-0 in his last 7 starts against them while only giving up a total of 5 earned runs in 51 innings. Those starts were won by an average of 6.6 runs and all of them were won by at least 2 runs. Take the Yankees on the run line.

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves - BRAVES -1.5 (-125)
Listed Pitchers: Galarraga vs Hudson
(Note: I'm risking 2.50 units to win 2.00 units)

Houston comes into Atlanta after being swept by Milwaukee and are now 2-19 over their last 21 games. That puts them to 35-71 on the season and just 10-44 on the road. The Braves are one of the hotter teams in the Majors with a 18-6 record over their last 24 games, and come into tonight's game 8-1 in their last 9. On the season they are 60-45 with a 30-25 home record. Houston will send Armando Galarraga to the mound for his second start of the season. He pitched 5 innings allowing 5 hits and 2 earned runs at home vs Pittsburgh on the 28th of July. In the minors he was 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA over 10 starts, and last season with Arizona he went 3-4 with a 5.91 ERA over 8 starts. Tim Hudson will be on the mound for Atlanta tonight and he is 10-4 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and .251 opponents batting average. Hudson had a great June where he went 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA, and although his ERA was up to 3.89 in July he finished the month 4-1. Take note that the Astros are just 13-48 in their last 61 games overall, and 9-43 in their last 52 road games. The Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 home games, 19-7 in their last 26 overall, 14-3 in their last 17 following a win, 21-8 in Hudson's last 29 starts overall and 16-5 in Hudson's last 21 home starts. Houston is winless in their last 5 in Atlanta and 3-13 in their last 16 meetings overall. This Houston lineup won't be able to compete much against the NL's top teams heading down the final stretch of the season, and will struggle tonight against one the NL's hottest teams at home with a solid starting pitcher on the mound. Take the Braves on the run line for 2 units as they win by a handful of runs.

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd 5* 'Never Lost' MLB *Friday Night Feast* San Francisco Giants 4* 36-0 Friday MLB *Crunch Time Bailout* NY Mets 8/5 NFL Preseason: Cardinals/Saints 4* NFLX Hall of Fame SMASH! Cardinals +3

[Mr. IWS]

JACK JONES

25* AL Non-Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR!
Los Angeles Angels

15* AL Undervalued Underdog
Baltimore Orioles

15* AL Late-Night BAILOUT!
Toronto Blue Jays

[Mr. IWS]

401 K sports

43-15 last 58

Fri plays
** While I like both the Angels and Rangers based on match ups, I am passing on those game b/c they are coming off a tough rivalry series and a let down is natural there.**
There will be a ton of big faves tonight on my card. I don't like having that many faves on one card, but there are a ton of teams that we are riding going up against pitchers who are just brutal right now. It is one of those nights where you just ride what has been working and hopefully have a profit at the end of the night.
2** NY Yankees -1.5 runs -125 over Seattle(7pm) - You can find this as low as -117 and as high as -135 so shop around for the best deal. This basically a 4* game where I am just not laying the -250 to make it a -1 type of game. Despite the fantastic homestand for Seattle this one doesn't set up too well for Seattle. The Yanks have killed Millwood in his career. Kevin is 3-8 with 5.09 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. Up & down the line up there are guys hitting .350+ BA off Millwood w/25+ AB. The opposite is true off of CC. He is 12-4 w/2.45 ERA. There are a lot of M's hitters hitting below the Mendoza line off CC.Give the Vets on the Yanks a day of rest and they come out flying. Yanks are 10-1 after an off day. Seattle is flying X-Country. That 1st game of an opposite coast swing is always tough.

2** Atlanta -1.5 runs -130 over Houston(7pm) - You can find this as low as -120 and as high as -135 so always shop around. Hudson comes in hot with 3 wins in his L3 starts. Atlanta is really hitting the ball well plating 6+ runs in 5 of the 7 games on the homestand. The starters are going deep and the pen is rested. We have been playing against Houston a lot lately and why not? They have lost 28 of 31. The Astros are just 10-44 on the road. . I am going to keep playing against Houston on the road until they start to show that they can play better. Why not take advantage of it? Sure the price is steep but after a few wins, you don't even think about it.

1* St Louis -145 over Milwaukee(8pm)
1* St Louis -1.5 runs +140 over Milw - Milwaukee looked great over the weekend at home vs Houston. BFD!! Everybody looks great vs Houston. Will that play carr over to the road where the Brewers are just 18-30? I don't it will for tonight at least. The Brewers are just 1-8 in Wolf's 9 road starts and he is carrying a 6.37 road ERA. St Louis plays .580 ball at home and is 21-11 vs lefty starters. Kelly has been solid every time out. 8 straight QS, yet has a 1-4 record to show for it. Time for some justice to come his way.
1* Oakland/Toronto under 7(10pm) - MLB debut here of A's prospect Daniel Straily. Mid 90's heater, strong change up. Straily leads all of baseball with 171 k's. He has good command with a 4.75/1 K/bb ratio. This is the A's version of picking up a Greinke or Dempster. A's have comeback to earth on offense. They have put up only 10 runs in L5 games. Toronto offense is also in a funk w/out Bautista, Arrencibia and Lind. Cecil has been solid in 6 of 8 starts. I am fairly confident he can hold the A's to 2 or 3 runs in this one. Looking for a 3-2 or 4-1 type of game.

[Mr. IWS]

ROBERT FERRINGO

MIN @ BOS OVER 10 (-110) [4:10pm PDT]

HOU @ ATL -1.5 [4:35pm PDT]

TOR @ OAK (-145) [7:05pm PDT]

CHC @ LAD (-155) [7:10pm PDT]

SEA @ NYY -1.5 (-125) [4:05pm PDT]

TEX -1.5 (-115) @ KC [5:10pm PDT]

SF (-150) @ COL [5:40pm PDT]

Doubleheader Chase

MIA @ WSH (-160) [1:05pm PDT - Game 1]

MIA @ WSH (-145) [4:35pm PDT - Game 2]

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

MLB

4* New York Yankees -1.5 -130 over Seattle Mariners (7:05PM EST)

CFL

5* Winnipeg +1.5 over Montreal (8:35PM EST)

NFL (Future)

6* UNDER 6 WINS Minnesota Vikings

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports STAT OF THE DAY --- CC Sabathia is an incredible 24-4 in his home team starts in August and September. TOP PLAYS 4 UNIT PLAY Kansas City/ Texas Under 9.5: So how does one take an Under in game where one team just scored 26 runs in their last 2 games and are facing a pitcher named Guthrie? It's easy. It's called letdown. Both Physical and Mental. Texas is off a very emotional game vs the Angels and have used a ton of energy in two come-from behind wins in the last 2 nights. I really don't see this offense getting up for this one, and that should negate some of the inefectiveness of Guthrie. Jeremy has a solid 3.90 ERA in 9 career starts vs Texas, but an even better 2.58 ERA in 5 career starts vs them outside of Rangers Ballpark. Also knowing that Matt Harrison is on the mound for the Rangers could hinder their offense a bit as they know they may not have to score a ton of runs to get the win here. Matt has a solid 3.01 ERA on the road and while he was hit a bit in his last 2 starts overall he did come into those two starts having allowed 2 ER's or less in his previous 7 games. Matt does have a 4.37 ERA in 4 career starts vs the Royals, but just one of those have been here and he allowed 1 ER in 6.2 innings in that game. He will be facing a KC team that really struggles vs lefties as they have averaged just 3.6 rpg vs them overall and just 3.3 rp/9 innings off of them at home. KC has also hit just 18 of their 84 total HR's off of lefties on the year. We have a tired offense and a team that can't hit lefties taking on one good starts and one starter that has had good success vs their opponent. Looks like a recipe for an Under to me. No more than 7 runs in this one. Oh and this ISN'T a PA Play, but still take a look at the Extra Power Angle for this play below. 3 UNIT PLAYS Houston/ Atlanta Over 8: Last night I had the Under in the Atlanta/ Miami game and it was a winner. Whew. LOL Anyway i will head the other way with this one. Tim Hudson has been pitching very well of late, with a 3.15 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he still has a 4.84 ERA and a slightly elevated WHIP of 1.40 at home on the year. His home starts have averaged 9.4 rpg, while his night starts have put up 9.91 rpg. Tim does have a 2.34 ERA in 8 career starts vs the Astros, but 6 of the 8 starts saw 8 or more runs scored, while the 3 starts here vs them averaged 11.3 rpg. Armando Gallaraga has just 1 starts on the year and he allowed 2 ER's in 5 innings vs Pittsburgh in that start. Armando has never been a great starter as he has an ERA of 4.59 in 87 career starts, while on the road he has a 4.91 ERA in 47 appearances (43 starts). The Braves are HUGE faves in this game and in Armando's 30 career losses he has a 7.07 ERA. Overall this Houston staff has allowed 6.04 rpg on there road and Atlanta should easily hit at least that mark, especially since they have put up 6 or more runs in 6 of their last 8 games and they average 6.4 rpg for Tim in his night starts. I like the RL in this game as well, but made it a lesser play, still I expect a ton of runs from a very good Atlanta offense, while Houston should be good for at least 3. POWER ANGLE PLAY (10-1 Last 11) LA DODGERS -154 over Chicago: Coming off a tough divisional matchup is not easy for any team, but the Dodgers were swept in their 3 game home set vs the Arizona, so some desperation has to set in here and what better way to get it back than to take on the 2nd worst road team in the league. Jeff Samardzija has been very good in his last 5 starts, but he can struggle on the road, with a 4-5 mark and a 4.71 ERA. Cahd Billingsley has had some problems this year and he is 1-4 with 4.32 ERA at home on the year, but he is pitching with confidence right now after road starts at St Louis and San Francisco saw him allow just 1 ER in 13.1 innings of work. Behind these two starters the Dodgers get a big bullpen edge as they have a pen ERA of just 2.51 at home, while the Cubs have a pen ERA of 5.16 on the road. Chicago is just 15-36 in their last 51 road games, while the Dodgers are 22-8 in their last 30 games on Friday. LA Needs this one in the worst way and they should get it vs a team that really struggles on the road. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2008 the Dodgers are 30-5 as a home favorite vs a NL opponent when they are off a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits, used 2 or more pitchers and it's not the last game of a series. NY Yanks/ Seattle Under 9: Six games have been played between these teams this year and no more than 8 runs have been scored in those games. In fact dating back to last year the last 8 in this series has put up no more than 8 runs. CC had a rough start in his last outing, but then again he always struggles vs Boston. In his 4 start before Boston he had a 1.94 ERA and at home this year he has a 2.78 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. The Yanks offense does average 5.02 rpg at home, including 5.25 rpg in CC's home starts and that is fine because CC has allowed 1 ER or less in his last 7 starts vs the M's, while the Yanks as a team have allowed 2 ER's or less in each of CC's last 7 starts vs Seattle. Kevin Milwood has a solid 3.52 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP on the road, with his road starts averaging just 7.9 rpg. Over his career Milwood has struggled with the yanks but in 2 starts this year he has a 2.57 ERA vs them. Kevin has allowed 5 total ER's in his last 3 starts vs the Yanks and he has allowed and he has allowed no more than 3 ER's in 7 of his last 9 starts overall. Seattle does hit .260 and score 4.67 rp/9 off of lefties on the road, but as a team they have hit just .153 and have knocked in just 2 runs in 98 AB's off of this lefty. I expect no more than 7 in this one. OTHER PLAYS 2 UNIT PLAYS ATLANTA -1.5 (-130) over Houston SAN DIEGO +1.5 (-150) Over NY Mets 1 UNIT PLAYS Washington / Miami Under 8.5 (GAME 1) LA Angels -139 over CHICAGO 2 EXTRA POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (19-3 RUN) ( +14.45 UNITS) Since 2009 Toronto is 1-33 as a road dog when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they allowed at least 4 walks and did not hold a 3+ run lead. Play on Oakland -130 over Toronto Since July of 2011 the Under is 13-0 when Kansas City is a dog of 140+ after scoring 6 or more runs in a night game. Play On Kansas City/ Texas Under 9.5

[Dancin' Shoes]

LEGIT PICKS

Friday 8/3/12 Plays...

4* BREWERS/CARDINALS (UNDER)

---SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success-