8-30-12

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Thursday

100* Play San Francisco (-175) over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 8:00 PM EST

Jordan Lyles has lost 15 of the last 17 games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he has lost 20 of the last 24 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Jordan Lyles has lost 15 of the last 18 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season and he has lost 7 of the last 9 games vs. NL West Division Opponents.

50* Play LA Dodgers (-210) over Arizona (MLB BONUS PLAY)

50* Play Tampa Bay (-155) over Toronto (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Insider Sports Reports

Milwaukee Brewers (w/Marcum)

Central FL. - 24

Washington St. +12

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Ed Meyer

Boston Red Sox +149

The Angels are going for the sweep here, a spot in which they have been a terrible investment. LA simply has trouble vs a team they have beaten. The Angels are a horrific 8-24 at night game vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series. on the average, LA was minus-132 on the moneyline in these 32 games. If we insist that they are a 120-plus favorite, LA is 1-11 with their only win coming when Jered Weaver beat the Twins as a 240 favorite.

Note that in their last four they never even held the lead and they were significant favorites in each.

In addition, the Angels are 0-5 THIS season at home vs an AL foe that is seeking immediate revenge for a five-plus run loss.

Note that EVERY loss was by multiple runs and that they were an average of minus 154 on the moneyline.

In Lester's last outing, he battled the Royals for seven innings and the Sox came away with a 4-3 win. All the signs are positive, as Boston is 14-1 with Lester when he is off a win in which he faced thirty-plus hitters.

Note that his only loss came back in 2008 on the road vs Roy Halladay.

Lester walked four batters vs the Royals and he recovers nicely from this type of problem. The Red Sox are 25-4 in franchise history with Lester when he is off a start in which he allowed at least four walks.

Finally, the Angels are 0-4 with Greinke as a favorite vs a team that has averaged seven-plus strikeouts per game season-to-date. The Sox have the line value here.

MTI FORECAST: Boston 4 LA ANGELS 3

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* South Carolina -6

[Mr. IWS]

EAGLE EYE--WINMART
Akron +24
Ucla/Rice Over 59.5
South Carolina/Vanderbilt Over 45

EAGLE EYE-- PHILLY-CONNECTION
Eastern Mich+3
Minn-7.5

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

5-0 (100%) NFLX Totals Run! Teddy's Final Preseason Winner

10* Ravens/Rams Over

[Mr. IWS]

EZ Winners

2* South Carolina -7

[Mr. IWS]

Psychic Sports Picks

PSYCHIC
(1-5)

3 unit Akron +24

WIZARD
(1-20)

5 unit Vanderbilt +7
7 unit BYU -12

Baseball Guru
(1-10)

3 units Oakland -115

JT WALKER
(all units same)

KC Royals +110

Vegas Expert
(1-100)

25 unit Atlanta Falcons +3
25 unit Carolina +3.5

TK Sports
(1-10)

3 unit UNLV +8.5

[Mr. IWS]

SB Professor Original NCAAF Picks

7 PM
134. Vanderbilt +7*
(mostly +6.5's but buy it up to +7 if you have to, there are a couple 7's out there)

10:15 PM
145. Washington St. +12*

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

Kansas City -1.5 vs. GREEN BAY
Kansas City -1.5 over GREEN BAY
There’s a reason that the Chiefs are favored in Green Bay for the final warm up before the regular season kicks off. The Packers couldn’t give a rat’s behind about this game while the Chiefs need to do something positive this preseason to provide some confidence.
The Chiefs have allowed 74 points against in the past two pre-season games against Seattle and St. Louis respectively. They’ve looked awful in both games and they surely don’t want to drag that kind of stench into the regular season. Expect the starters to play longer than Green Bay’s.
The real kicker here is Packers head coach Mike McCarthy. Since he arrived in Green Bay, the Packers are 1-5 straight up in the final preseason game. The Packers showed nothing in the first two preseason games but in the all-important third preseason game against Cinci last week they cruised to a 14-point win. That’s more than enough for McCarthy, who will use Aaron Rodgers and company for one series and that’s it. The Chiefs are obviously not supposed to be favored in Green Bay but the fact that they are is information that should not be ignored.

VANDERBILT +6.5 +100 vs South Carolina
VANDERBILT +6.5 +100 over South Carolina
Right off the bat, in a televised ESPN Thursday night college opener, we see a ranked team as a road favorite against an unranked opponent. The Gamecocks come in as the #9 rated club in the nation. Coach Steve Spurrier is an incredible 21-1 all-time in season openers as a head coach. South Carolina also set a school record for wins last season with 11. With Spurrier coaching, with momentum carrying over from last year and with one of the best backs in the nation in Marcus Lattimore returning from a season ending knee injury (he hasn’t played in a year), there is a lot of hype and big predictions for the Gamecocks. Such sentiment has inflated this number.
Vanderbilt was just 6-7 a year ago but they aren’t without talent. They too have a stud running back, as Zac Stacy rushed for 1,193 yards and scored 14 TDs, while averaging six yards per attempt. QB Jordan Rodgers also returns. You may have heard of his brother, as his brother Aaron is the starting QB for the Green Bay Packers. The Commodores went 5-2 against the number when Rodgers started last year. In those games, Vandy averaged 31 points. Aaron has been working extensively with Jordan this past summer. The left side of the offensive line returns intact and defensively, the Commodores should be in decent shape with seven starters back. The Commodores went 7-0 at home against the spread a year ago. They have experience and talent on both sides of the ball.
NCAA football provides opportunities, such as this one, to fade overhyped ranked teams playing on the road against unranked opponents, especially early. An upset would not surprise but we’ll gladly accept the generous points being offered.

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

N.Y. Mets vs. PHILADELPHIA
N.Y. Mets +100 over PHILADELPHIA
1:05 PM EST. The Mets have suddenly come to life. After a string of nine games in which they scored 15 runs, they’ve scored 12 in the last two here. New York has remarkably won 10 of 14 games between these two this year, outscoring Philly 81-65 in those contests. In addition, the Mets have now won four straight.
Jonathon Niese is quickly becoming one of the most reliable and consistent pitchers in the game and yet, few talk about him. He’s pitched seven full innings or more in nine of his past 11 starts. He’s walked just 40 batters all year while striking out 134 in 159 frames. His skills, which primarily consist of control, groundball % and strikeout rate has increased each season over the past four years. Niese’s ERA is 3.51, which is right in line with his xERA of 3.46. Niese is 4-1 in day games with a 2.85 ERA and a BAA of .213.
The Phillies are 16-23 against southpaws. Kyle Kendrick is just one of those pitchers that is good enough to round out a rotation but will never dominate. He comes in with a 7-9 overall record and a 3-6 mark with a 4.76 ERA at home. With runners on base, he really struggles with a .295 BAA as oppose to a BAA of .209 with the bases empty.

[Mr. IWS]

VegasTout Football Plays for Thursday


Play UCF -24 over Akron—NCAA FOOTBALL TOP PLAY

7:00 PM EST

Akron has lost 11 of the last 13 games when playing in the 1st half of
the season and they have also lost 21 consecutive games as an
underdog. Akron only averaged 14 points a game on offense last season
and they allowed an average of 38 points a game on defense in those
same games.


Play UNLV +8.5 over Minnesota---NCAA BONUS PLAY
Play Vanderbilt +6.5 over South Carolina—NCAA BONUS PLAY

[Mr. IWS]

VegasTout MLB Baseball for Thursday


Play San Francisco -175 over Houston—Top MLB Play

Houston has lost 42 of the last 60 games as an underdog of +125 t0
+175 and they have also lost 50 of the last 72 games after batting
.240 or worse over the last twenty games. Houston has lost 85 of the
last 126 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and
they have also lost 69 of the last 96 games vs. right-handed starting
pitchers.

Play Tampa Bay -155 over Toronto---Bonus MLB Play

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Washington State vs. BYU

Controversial former Texas Tech Coach Mike Leach is now the new head man of
the Washington State Cougars, but his first game at the helm is a tough one
vs. the BYU Cougars Thursday night from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, UT
at 10:15 ET on ESPN. This Battle of the Cougars features two teams that
figure to be on the opposite end of the spectrum, as Leach will be implementing
his offense on a Wazzou team that went 4-8 last season while BYU is looking
for bigger things following a nice 10-3 campaign.

The BYU offense returns seven starters on offense, with those being senior
quarterback Riley Skinner, his top three receivers from last season and
three members of the offensive line. The one major loss on that offensive line
was four-year starter Matt Reynolds, but the passing game should still be
successful as long as Skinner stays healthy. Skinner split time with Jake Heaps
last year, yet he still managed to throw for over 1700 yards on only 116
attempts (8.5 YPA) with 19 touchdowns passes, and having all of his favorite
targets back helps. The running game needs to replace Josh Quezada and J.J.
Di Luigi, but that duo only combined to rush for 882 yards last year. Junior
Michael Alisa now tops the depth chart after averaging 5.4 yards per carry
as a sophomore, and he could end up being an upgrade after all is said and
done. The BYU defense also returns seven players including five starters on
the back seven, which is significant because that defense ranked 32nd
nationally against the pass last season, permitting only 200.9 passing yards per
game.

Thus, this seems like a difficult defense for the pass-happy Leach to make
his debut against. The good news is that although Washington State won only
four games in 2011, at least the offense returns seven starters including
last year's leading receiver Marquess Wilson, who accounted for over 1400
receiving yards. One player not returning is quarterback Marshall Lobbestael,
but new starter Jeff Tuel is a senior that completing 64.4 percent of his
attempts in limited action in 2011. Leach went through quite a few quarterbacks
in his days with the Red Raiders, and almost all of them put up great
passing numbers in his system without having much success in the NFL. The big
question thus becomes how quickly Washington State can learn the system, and
whether the players he inherited are the right fit. Perhaps we should wait for
Leach's first major recruiting class in the next year or two to proclaim
whether his hiring was a stroke of genius or a mistake. Wazzou also returns
seven starters on the defensive side, but after allowing 31.8 points per game
last year and ranking 82nd in total defense surrendering 410 yards per
contest, is that a good thing?

BYU was an underrated team last year that finished 9-4 ATS, bringing it to
16-5 ATS in the last 21 games overall. Washington State went a rather
surprising 7-5 ATS despite the losing record, probably because it was a big
underdog so much and it is now 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog of +10
or more.

Pick: BYU -11.5

[Mr. IWS]

Frank Patron

20,000 Unit Opening CFB Move

Vanderbilt Commodores +6.5 over South Carolina