9-9-12

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The Bag Man


4000 Units Bears -9 over Colts - Love the way Cutler is playing and Luck won't being seeing a vanilla defense in the Regular Season. This has the makings of a route.

2000 Units Titans +6 over Patriots 6 points is too many on the road for an offense that has looked average and a defense that has difficulty stopping the run.

2000 Units Jaguars +4 over Vikings No Peterson spells trouble for the Vikes

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NFL
Write-Up


Sunday
Colts @ Bears— Indy has new coach, new QB; they’re glorified expansion team, starting fresh, so they’re trends don’t mean as much, but they did cover four of five LY as double digit underdogs. Colts lost 34-24/34-7 in last two road openers, after having won nine of previous ten. Teams with rookie QBs figure to struggle on foreign soil early on. Chicago won 29-13 at Indy in last meeting in ’08, teams’ only meeting since Colts beat Bears in Super Bowl XLI. Since ’96, underdogs are 13-3 vs spread in Chicago’s home openers, with Bears just 2-8 vs spread as favorite; they’ve won six of last seven home openers, allowing 13.3 ppg last three years. Since 2007, Chicago is just 9-15-1 as home favorites, but they did cover last two tries when laying double digits. Five of Indy’s last seven road openers stayed under total.

Eagles @ Browns— Lot of commonality between coaching staffs; been rough summer off field for Coach Reid. Philly is just 4-6 as road favorite last two years, with six of 11 road wins by 7 or less points. Since being reborn in 1999, Browns are 1-12 in home openers, 1-11-1 vs spread; they were favored/even in five of the 12 losses- they’re 0-7 vs spread in last seven home openers, with under 8-4 in their last 12. 12 of those 13 home openers came in Week 1. Cleveland is 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as home underdog; they’re 3-7-2 vs spread v NFC teams last three years. Philly are 3-0 vs new Browns, scoring 35-34-30 points; they’ve won last three road openers, scoring 31+ points in last four. Since ’88, Philly is 14-8 vs spread in road openers; 6-4 as favorite, 8-4 as dog. Over is 3-0-1 in their last four road openers. Teams met in preseason two weeks ago, but Vick didn’t play.

Bills @ Jets— How will Gang Green utilize Tebow? How will Sanchez react if he struggles early and gets pulled? Fickle home folks could turn ugly if Jets stumble early vs Buffalo squad that lost last five games to Jets by average score of 30-14, losing last two visits here, 38-7/28-24. Bills are 7-3 in last ten tries as road dogs in road openers; since 2000, they’re 3-0 as Week 1 road dog. Buffalo is 12-6 as road underdogs in divisional games last six years. Six of their last eight road openers stayed under the total. Over last 20 years, Jets are 2-8 vs spread as favorite in home opener, losing 14 of 20 (2-1 last three years). Three of their last four home openers stayed under total. Jets covered five of last six season openers; since 2007, they’re 2-9-1 vs spread as a home favorite in divisional games. Bills trading for Tarvaris Jackson raised some eyebrows.

Redskins @ Saints— Lot of unusual variables here. How will Saints function without Payton/Vitt on sidelines? Who will make key 4th down calls? Redskins using rookie QB in hostile environment; tough way to start. Washington won its last six visits to New Orleans, with last visit in ’06. Road team won six of last seven series games. New Orleans won four in row and 11 of last 14 home openers, scoring 28.3 ppg in last four; they’re 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine as favorite in home openers, with 11 of last 15 staying under total. New Orleans won last five Sunday openers. Washington lost nine of last 12 road openers, losing last four, scoring 14 ppg. 1-5 vs spread in last six as underdog. Under is 8-3-1 in Washington’s last dozen road openers. Since ’07, Redskins are 18-12-3 as road underdogs. Since ’08, Saints are 19-9-1 as a home favorite.

Patriots @ Titans— Since 1998, Super Bowl losers are 0-13 vs spread (2-11 SU) in their next season’s opener. Teams’ first meeting since Patriots waxed Tennessee 59-0 on snowy October day in Foxboro three years ago, their fourth straight series win. Tennessee covered seven of last ten home openers, four of last five that were in Week 1; they’re 7-0 vs spread last seven times they were underdog in home opener, with last non-cover 34-17 (+5) vs Steelers in ’95. Patriots won last eight season openers (4-3-1 vs spread); they’re 6-6 in last dozen road openers, 1-2 in last three; since ’92, they’re 1-11 in road openers if they score 21 or less points, 7-1 if they score 23+. Four of their last six road openers went over total. Titans’ last three home openers went over total. Pats split two visits here, losing 24-7 in ’02, winning 40-23 in ’06.

Jaguars @ Vikings— New owner/coach/QB for Jaguars, who lost last four road openers (1-3 vs spread) by average score of 25-9, losing 38-13/32-3 in Week 2 road openers last two years. In their history, are solid 7-4 vs spread as underdog in road openers. Six of their last eight road openers stayed under total. First time in five years Vikings are opening season at home; Minnesota lost three of last four home openers, with all four decided by four or less points; since ’99, they’re 3-8 vs spread as favorite in home openers. You're reading ***************.com. Vikings won three of four series games, with none of four decided by less than 11 points. Only Jaguar win was 33-3 here in ’01. Since ’88, under is 16-7-1 in Metrodome home openers.

Dolphins @ Texans— High expectations in Houston after their first playoff appearance LY; they’re 6-0 vs Dolphins, with all three wins here by 3 or less points- only one of the six wins is by more than 7 points. Rookie QB gets the nod for Miami, which lost seven of last eight road openers (1-5-1 vs spread in last seven), with only win at Buffalo in ’10. Once-proud Fish are 0-4-1 vs spread in last five games as underdog in road opener. Texans won 34-24/34-7 in last two home openers, after losing six of first eight in franchise history; they’re 2-2 as Week 1 home favorite. Five of their last seven home openers stayed under total. Houston allowed 24+ points in seven of last nine home openers. Under is 13-5 in Miami’s last 18 road openers.

Rams @ Lions— Third offense in three years for young QB Bradford; main question is can rebuilt OL keep him on his feet? Rams are 15-65 last five years, worst 5-year stretch in NFL history; they hired former Titan HC Fisher to right ship. His DC in Tennessee was current Lion HC Schwartz, so team will play similar defenses. St Louis lost last ten road openers (1-9 vs spread) by average score of 26-12, with five of last six staying under total. Last time Rams won season opener was 18-10 home win (+3.5) over Denver in 2006. Detroit is 14-6-1 vs spread in last 21 home openers, but lost three of last four (32-35/48-3 L2 years). First time in six years they’re opening season at home. Three of last four home openers went over. Rams are 3-2 in last five series games; ’09 Rams’ only win came here, 17-10. ’10 Rams lost 44-10 here.

Falcons @ Chiefs— Home side won five of last six series games, all decided by 11+ points; Falcons have never won here, losing 38-10/14-3/56-10 (’04). Atlanta whupped KC 38-14 at home in last meeting (’08). Chiefs started 0-1 five of last six years. Chiefs are 4-8 in last dozen home openers, scoring 13 or less points in five of last six. KC is 2-6-1 vs spread last nine games where they were favored in a home opener. Atlanta lost last five road openers, scoring average of 8.6 ppg; they even lost at Pittsburgh one year when Big Ben was suspended. Since ’88, they’re 0-4 as favorite in road openers. You're reading ***************.com. Seven of last eight road openers stayed under total; under is 16-2-1 in Chiefs’ last 19 home openers.

49ers @ Packers—Green Bay won five in row, 13 of last 14 games vs 49ers, with only loss in ’98 playoff game; SF lost last eight visits here, with five of eight by 10+ points. Pack won/covered last five home openers, by average score of 27-18. This will be 13th time in 16 years they’re at home in Week 1.. Niners *** four of last five road openers, covered six of last eight; they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine tries as road dog in road opener. Since ’94, they’re 2-6 vs spread in Week 1 road games. Four of Pack’s last six home openers stayed under; under is 3-1-1 in 49ers’ last five road openers. Niners were +28 in turnovers in magical ’11 run; they made lot of own breaks, but you’re not +28 without few bounces going your way—will that continue?

Panthers @ Buccaneers— Curious to see how Newton does with full off-season program under his belt; teams didn’t have that last season, but he was still terrific as rookie, beating Bucs 38-19/48-16 in two meetings. Carolina lost last three road openers, allowing 28-31-28 points; they failed to cover last three as dog in road openers, after covering nine of first 10 (9-4 as dog overall in road openers). Tampa Bay lost five of last six season openers; since ’88, they’re 4-6 vs spread as dogs in home openers, 7-6-1 as favorite. Bucs are 4-6 in last ten home openers; over is 3-1-1 in last five, after 12 of previous 15 stayed under. Carolina’s last four road openers went over the total. Oddly, Carolina won seven of last nine visits here.

Seahawks @ Cardinals— Home side won four of last five series games; Seattle lost five of last six visits here, with losses by 6-3-13-11-3 points. Since ’00, Hawks are 4-8 in road openers, allowing 6-0-7-6 points in wins; they lost last five road openers (0-6 vs spread in last six) by average score of 29-14. Home team won their last five season openers. You're reading ***************.com, America's favorite website. Arizona has been better in home openers since they got the dome; winning five of last six home openers, but since ’88, are still just 3-10 vs spread as favorite in home openers, with five of last six going over total. Under is 19-5 in Arizona’s last 24 home openers, but 2-3 in last five.

Steelers @ Broncos— Denver KO’d Steelers from playoffs 29-23 with OT TD last January; now they’ve upgraded from Tebow to Manning at QB. Fox lost eight of his last nine home openers; before he got to Denver, Broncos had won 11 straight Mile High openers (8-3 vs spread). Manning won seven of last eight home openers, covering six of last 10 as favorite. Over is 3-1-1 in Denver’s last five home openers. Pittsburgh is just 4-8 in last 12 road openers, 4-3 in last seven, scoring average of just 10 ppg in last five, with four of those five staying under total- they scored 14 or less points in four of those five games. New OC Haley said to have installed more run-happy offense, which may explain why Big Ben didn’t get his shoulder fixed. Since ’88, they’re 4-5 in Week 1 openers on road. Steelers are 5-10-1 all-time in Denver, 3-4 vs Broncos in playoffs.


Monday
Bengals @ Ravens— Baltimore won last seven home openers (5-2 vs spread), with none of wins by less than seven points; since 1988, they’re 8-3 vs spread in Week 1 home games. Ravens covered four of last five home openers vs divisional opponent. Cincinnati is 4-3 in last seven road openers; they were dog in three of four wins, favored in two of three losses (underdogs covered five of their last six road openers). Since ’88, are 6-5 vs spread as Week 1 underdog. Four of Bengals’ last five road openers went over total; over is 5-1-1 in Ravens’ last seven home openers, but seven of last nine series games had totals of 37 or less. Ravens won both meetings LY, 31-24/24-16, but are still just 6-9 in last 15 series games, albeit 3-1 in last four played here.

Chargers @ Raiders—Allen is fourth head coach in five years for Oakland, but Palmer had full camp and should be better this year under center. Raiders won three of last four series games after losing 13 in row to Bolts before that. San Diego won seven of last eight visits here, with only loss 35-27 in ’10. Chargers lost four of last five road openers, allowing average of 30.6 ppg, giving up 35+ points in three of the four losses; they’re 4-9 vs spread last 13 times road opener was in Week 1. Over is 13-7-1 in San Diego’s last 21 road openers. Raiders lost last four times they opened season at home, with three losses by 15+ points- they’re 9-5 in last 14 home openers, winning last two after losing previous seven. Four of their last five home openers went over the total. Average total in last four series games is 52.

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Hondo NFL top picks,

NY Giants=Loss vs Dallas Cowboys

NY Jets-2.5 vs Buffalo Bills

Pittsburg Steelers+1 @ Denver Broncos

[poopoo333]

Five rookie quarterbacks making opening-weekend starts September 07, 2012 9:28 PM by Bob Christ

Five rookie quarterbacks will be making opening-weekend starts and are worth keeping an eye on especially considering four will be starting on the road. But their tasks won’t be impossibly difficult considering Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton guided the Bengals to a 27-17 victory in Cleveland in Week 1 of 2011 as a seven-point underdog.

There also will be four making their head coaching debuts – Indianapolis’ Chuck Pagano, Miami’s Joe Philbin, Oakland’s Dennis Allen and Tampa Bay’s Greg Schiano, not to mention Saints offensive line coach Aaron Kromer, who’s the interim boss until first-string interim coach Joe Vitt serves his BountyGate suspension.

There’s a mixed bag of history surrounding coaches in season-opening debuts, so beware. From 2009-2011, they went a cumulative 4-8 ATS, but from 2002-08 were 15-10-1.

Then there’s the powerful trend of the week, which involves New England. Since 2000, Super Bowl losers have gone 0-12 ATS to open the next season. Pittsburgh was in that role last season and suffered its worst loss the past five seasons, 34-7 at Baltimore.

Now on to a closer look at this week’s games:

PRO FOOTBALL SUNDAY, SEPT. 9

Indianapolis (0-0) at Chicago (0-0)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Bears by 10 (43.5 o/u)

Facts: Celebrated No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck will start at QB for Indy, which finished 2-14 last season. In Peyton Manning’s 1998 rookie year, after a 3-13 season, the Colts opened 0-4, with Manning throwing 11 INTs with three TD passes. … Chicago defensive anchor, LB Brian Urlacher, vows to play after recent knee surgery. … Indy allowed foes to complete 71.2 percent of throws in 2011, the worst rate for any team in history.

Analysis: A lot is expected of Luck this year. But he’s working with a rookie boss who also is implementing a new 3-4 defense. Indy also will face a team boasting the return of QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte and the addition of WR Brandon Marshall. Probably the only way Chicago can screw this up is by looking ahead to Thursday’s game in Green Bay. Last year, the Bears had their two most lopsided losses the game before facing the Packers.

Forecast: Bears 31, Colts 14



Philadelphia (0-0) at Cleveland (0-0)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Eagles by 9.5 (43)

Facts: Rookie Brandon Weeden becomes the Browns’ sixth different opening-day starter at QB. … The Eagles tied for the NFL high with 50 sacks last year and had 20 in August, more than anyone else. … This is a rematch of a summer meeting in which Philly won 27-10, holding Weeden to 9-of-20 passing. … Eagles QB Michael Vick was in 12 plays this season, yet still had time to injure a thumb and ribs. … Cleveland RB Trent Richardson (knee) should have a light load.

Analysis: The Browns had the league’s tenth-ranked defense last season, but are expected to be without three starters (suspension/injury). Therefore, Cleveland probably will have difficulty containing shifty RB LeSean McCoy and Vick, providing he’s not making another run to get an MRI. Even if Vick goes down his backup, rookie Nick Foles, had an outstanding camp. He threw for two first-quarter TDs in that practice game against Cleveland.

Forecast: Eagles 31, Browns 13



Miami (0-0) at Houston (0-0)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Texans by 12 (42)

Facts: The last time Miami was this big an underdog was in 2008 when it broke out the Wildcat in a 38-13 win at New England . … In 2003, Houston won its opener in Miami 21-20 as a 14-point underdog. … Philbin is Miami’s fourth rookie boss on opening day since 2005. The last one, Tony Sparano, took a -15 team and won the AFC East at 11-5 in 2008. … Houston’s Trindon Holliday had three special teams return TDs this summer, matching the Texans’ total the past two seasons.

Analysis: Dolphins rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, who began his college career as a WR at Texas A&M, will be facing a Houston defense that was the best in the league last season when coordinator Wade Phillips wasn’t being hospitalized. And although the Texans are the heaviest favorites to win a division this season, they might struggle more than the line indicates, for RB Arian Foster tweaked a knee at midweek and LB Brian Brian Cushing has been limited in drills (ribs).

Forecast: Texans 24, Dolphins 7



Buffalo (0-0) at NY Jets (0-0)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Jets by 3 (38.5)

Facts: New York managed one TD in four exhibitions, with No. 1 QB Mark Sanchez going 0-for-15 in his drives. … Powerful RB Fred Jackson is back for Buffalo after missing the final six games last season with a broken fibula. The Bills went 1-5 down the stretch without him to finish 6-10. … The Jets are expected to break out their Wildcat package with Tim Tebow, the 28th-rated passer last season. But he also was 28th on the rushing charts (660 yards).

Analysis: Both teams have issues at QB. In Buffalo, Ryan Fitzpatrick had a league-high 23 INTs last season, but at least he’s he’s got Jackson back, although standout WR Stevie Johnson is questionable (groin). Defensively, the Bills added standout pass rushers Mario Williams and Mark Anderson and shouldn’t be buffaloed by the Wildcat. After all, one of the masterminds of the attack is on Buffalo’s staff, QB coach David Lee.

Forecast: Bills 17, Jets 14



Washington (0-0) at New Orleans (0-0)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Saints by 7.5 (50)

Facts: With the Saints’ real head coach, Sean Payton, serving a yearlong suspension, they’ll be operating early on under offensive line coach Kromer. … Washington , 5-11 in 2011, had the worst mark of any team in history that swept the world champs (Giants). … New Orleans was 9-0 ATS at home last season. … Rookie QB Robert Griffin III will start for Washington. Last year, the Saints were a league-best 4-0 (3-1 ATS) vs. first-year QBs.

Analysis: The Saints, behind QB Drew Brees, set an NFL record in 2011 with a norm of 467.1 yards a game, breaking the mark of 458.8 set by the LA Rams in 1951. But the unit might not be the same without Payton. After all, it might not have been a coincidence New Orleans had its two worst games of the season last year when he was off his feet with a broken leg.

Forecast: Saints 30, Redskins 27



New England (0-0) at Tennessee (0-0)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line: Patriots by 5.5 (47)

Facts: Not only are teams that lost in the Super Bowl 0-12 ATS in the season openers, but 2-10 SU despite being a favorite seven times. … Titans RB Chris Johnson averaged only 4.0 yards a carry after holding out for his megadeal last season, a drop from 5.6 in 2009. … New England gave up a league-high seven 90-plus-yard TD drives last season. … Tennessee begins the QB Jake Locker era. The second-year QB beat out incumbent Matt Hasselbeck this summer.

Analysis: The Patriots’ offensive line is in chaos thanks to retirement (Matt Light), injury (Logan Mankins) and a holdout (Brian Waters, where are you?). Not to mention Tom Brady will be breaking in a new deep threat in Brandon Lloyd. Considering the Titans are a sleeper team to gain a wild card in the AFC and will be playing in front of an energized Week 1 crowd, New England could be out of sorts.

Forecast: Titans 24, Patriots 21



Jacksonville (0-0) at Minnesota (0-0)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Vikings by 3.5 (39)

Facts: Minnesota was 1-5 SU as a favorite last season. … Both teams feature past rushing champs, but the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson (knee) is expected to be only a game-time decision. The Jaguars’ Maurice Jones-Drew (rust) just ended a holdout and probably will back up RB Rashad Jennings. … The Jags finished last in total offense in 2011 with a norm of 259.3 yards a game. There were 17 teams last season that didn’t have even one game that bad.

Analysis: The teams will be relying heavily on second-year QBs who had crummy rookie seasons (Vikings’ Christian Ponder was 31st on the passer chart; Jaguars’ Blaine Gabbert was 34th). But at least they’ll get to face even crummier pass defenses. Minnesota’s 107.3 defensive passer rating last year was the second worst in NFL history. Then this summer, Jacksonville had a mark of 114.6. Gabbert rates an edge at QB, and at least the Jaguars’ RBs aren’t injured.

Forecast: Jaguars 27, Vikings 21


St. Louis (0-0) at Detroit (0-0)

Time: 10 a.m. PDT

Line: Lions by 7.5 (45.5)

Facts: Detroit has gone seven years without a 1,000-yard RB – the longest current streak in the league – and doesn’t appear to be in better shape this year since speedy Jahvid Best (concussion) is still unable to play... St. Louis was 3-13 ATS last season, the NFL’s worst mark. In ’07 the Ravens also were 3-13 ATS but went 14-5 against the line the next year... Lions WR Calvin Johnson had 10 catches of 40-plus yards last season, the most for anyone the past 13 years.

Analysis: St. Louis QB Sam Bradford raised eyebrows this summer by admitting his he’s not fully recovered from last year’s high ankle sprain. With Detroit’s pass rush likely to collapse the pocket routinely, that’s trouble. Plus, although Rams RB Stephen Jackson is a steamroller, he’s one carry from pulling a hamstring (see 2011). And with St. Louis having the league’s youngest team, don’t underestimate a noisy enemy crowd that helped cause Chicago to have nine false starts in a game last season.

Forecast: Lions 35, Rams 14


Atlanta (0-0) at Kansas City (0-0)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 2.5 (43.5)

Facts: When these teams last met in KC, in 2004, the Chiefs had eight rushing TDs in a 56-10 victory, the most for any team since 1923. … Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles, coming off knee surgery, averaged 6.38 yards a carry in a healthy 2010, the best for any 1,000-yard running back since Jim Brown in 1963. … KC’s 41-7 home loss to Buffalo as a four-point choice in Week 1 last season was the most lopsided home favorite on opening day since the Jets beat Seattle 41-3 in 1997 as a six-point underdog.

Analysis: Last season KC was devastated by knee injuries early in the season to Charles, TE Tony Moeaki and DB Eric Berry. Those guys are back, but the Chiefs were hit again this summer with another rash of trouble and could be missing four defensive starters against Atlanta. The key absentee is LB Tamba Hali (suspension), who had 12 sacks last season. Falcons QB Matt Ryan should have time to find standout WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones, in addition to ex-Chief TE Tony Gonzalez.

Forecast: Falcons 28, Chiefs 14



San Francisco (0-0) at Green Bay (0-0)

Time: 1:25 p.m. PDT

Line: Packers by 4.5 (46.5)

Facts: In 2011, the 49ers were 9-0-1 ATS early on until going 3-5 the rest of the way, including the postseason. … San Francisco ’s +28 turnover differential last year is the second best in league history. But they were at -2 in their division-round playoff loss to the Super Giants. … The Packers gave up 411.6 yards a game last season, the worst mark in the league the past 28 seasons. They attacked that shortcoming by taking defensive players with the first six picks of the 2012 draft.

Analysis: The 49ers’ Alex Smith was the most-sacked QB in the league last season, including nine times in one game at Baltimore, so that’s likely an area the Packers will have a solid edge, with LB Clay Matthews zooming in from the edges. And, of course, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers will rate an edge at QB and this season against virtually everybody and has thundering RB Cedric Benson to count on near the goal line.

Forecast: Packers 28, 49ers 17



Carolina (0-0) at Tampa Bay (0-0)

Time: 1:25 p.m. PDT

Line: Panthers by 2.5 (47)

Facts: Former Rutgers coach Greg Schiano will be making his debut as a pro boss after rebuilding the Scarlet Knights into perennial bowl participants. … Carolina WR Steve Smith and LB Jon Beason are expected back for the opener after being slowed by injuries this summer. RB Jonathan Stewart, however, suffered an ankle injury two weeks ago and might not play. … Panthers QB Cam Newton opened his 2011 rookie season by throwing for 422 yards in the opener at Arizona, a 28-21 loss.

Analysis: The Buccaneers, who carry a 10-game losing streak over from last year, that included five straight by 16 points or more, should be much improved from last year’s 4-12 death spiral that cost Raheem Morris his job. But Schiano’s track record at Rutgers indicates he’s not an instant miracle worker, since the Knights went 3-20 his first two seasons and lost one game by 80-0. In Week 1, at least, the Panthers are the much-more polished team.

Forecast: Panthers 27, Buccaneers 13



Seattle (0-0) at Arizona (0-0)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 2.5 (40)

Facts: Seattle’s Russell Wilson, a third-round selection in the 2012 draft, is the first QB not drafted in the first or second round to start in Week 1 since Kyle Orton in 2004 for Chicago . … Arizona will be going with QB John Skelton instead of Kevin Kolb, who waged a weak competition for the starting job. Skelton was 5-2 as a starter last year. ... Wilson ’s the only rookie QB starting this week whose team is a favorite. … Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch has been wrestling with back spasms. …

Analysis: Second-year Arizona RB Ryan Williams could be the wild card in this one thanks to his incredible balance and drive, which will complement 1,000-yard-rushing teammate Beanie Wells. Sure, Skelton is good for two interceptions a game, but Wilson can’t help but struggle, too, in an enemy dome and won’t have his best RB at full strength, if at all.

Forecast: Cardinals 20, Seahawks 17



Pittsburgh (0-0) at Denver (0-0)

Time: 5:20 p.m. PDT

Line: Broncos by 1.5 (45)

Facts: Denver is 5-24-2 ATS as a home favorite the past six years, including 0-3-1 last season. During John Elway’s Super years in 1997-98, that mark was 15-4. … In last year’s wild-card round, the host Broncos beat Pittsburgh 29-23 in overtime on Tim Tebow’s 80-yard slant pass Demaryius Thomas. Of course, Tebow has since been replaced by Peyton Manning. … Pittsburgh’s defensive quarterback, safety Ryan Clark, again will sit out this game at high elevation for medical reasons.

Analysis: The Steelers have plenty of motivation to avenge last season’s loss, but without Clark in the secondary, which will cause free-lancing DB Troy Polamalu to play out of position, Pittsburgh could struggle again. And with starting RB Rashard Mendenhall (knee) likely not at 100 percent, it’s hard not to lean toward Manning’s team. Although his long-term durability remains a question, for this night at least, he should be able to shed concerns about his neck and dink-and-dunk the Steelers into submission.

Forecast: Broncos 30, Steelers 20



PRO FOOTBALL MONDAY, SEPT. 10

Cincinnati (0-0) at Baltimore (0-0)

Time: 4 p.m. PDT

Line: Ravens by 6.5 (42)

Facts: This is the Ravens’ first MNF home game since 2007. Over the past four seasons, teams are 8-1 ATS when hosting such a game after a four-year drought. … As a rookie last season, Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton guided the Bengals to a season-best 483 yards total offense in a 31-24 loss in Baltimore, but threw three INTs. … Baltimore had a league-high three games last season rushing fewer than 15 times in a game, going 0-3. It went 12-1 in all others. So, guess what? This summer the Ravens threw more passes per game (47.3) than any other team.

Analysis: The Bengals were a playoff team last season, but capitalized off the bottom feeders, for they went 0-7 in the regular season against playoff teams. Plus, the Ravens not only will have the adrenaline flowing thanks to the MNF home crowd but also probably will dedicate their efforts to beloved former owner Art Modell, who died this week. LB Ray Lewis, in particular, will no doubt be playing out of his skull.

Forecast: Ravens 28, Bengals 13



San Diego (0-0) at Oakland (0-0)

Time: 7:15 p.m. PDT

Line: Chargers by 1

Facts: The Chargers’ rushing game got its tans knocked off this summer, gaining a league-low 68 yards a game. It didn’t help that RB Ryan Mathews (doubtful) broke his clavicle in early August. … Oakland’s Carson Palmer threw for 417 yards in the season finale at home against San Diego last season with the AFC division crown at stake, but the Chargers prevailed 38-26. … In addition to having a new coach, Allen, this will be the Raiders’ first opener since the death of owner Al Davis.

Analysis: Palmer probably isn’t the answer that ex-coach Hue Jackson thought he was when Jackson mortgaged the Raiders’ future to acquire the retired QB from Cincinnati, but he’ll be good enough on this night against a team that is missing vital pieces – Mathews and Vincent Jackson, who’s now catching passes in Tampa Bay. And with hard-charging Darren McFadden at RB for Oakland, the Raiders have a solid edge there.

Forecast: Raiders 31, Chargers 24

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Dennis Ball @ Gaming Today

Sunday, Sept. 9

Colts +10 at Bears: Jay Cutler is back under center. So da Bears’ fans should have plenty to cheer about as long as he stays healthy. He has a few new weapons, the most high-powered being Brandon Marshall. But I think Andrew Luck has shown enough moxie to at least grab a back door cover in his first NFL start. Luck’s performance against the blitz happy Steelers in preseason was enough to scare me away from laying this double digit line. COLTS.

Eagles -8½ at Browns: Philly fans can be breathe easy now that Vick is wearing a protective vest some say could withstand the impact of a roadside bomb in Afghanistan. Don’t worry Michael, none of the Browns hit that hard. They do however, hit hard enough to cover this spread, especially if Trent Richardson is ready to go. BROWNS.

Bills +3 at Jets: With all the negative press the Jets have suffered, I’m shocked they’re even the favorite in this game. Buffalo will try to get off to the same fast 5-2 start they did last season. This year they acquired a little more muscle on defense with the addition of Mario Williams. Jets have to prove to me they’ve solved their offensive line issues. BILLS.

Redskins +9 at Saints: The Saints are No. 1 in distractions. From the bounty scandal to the tropical storm which forced them to move their practice schedule to Cincinnati, the Saints have seen it all. But you can overcome tremendous challenges when you have the leadership of Drew Brees. He tossed 46 TDs for 5,476 yards last season. I know RG III is good. But right now, I’m betting he’s a tad over-hyped. SAINTS.

Patriots -6½ at Titans: Call me crazy but I think the Titans have a real chance to win this game. The Pats went all in on defense in the latest draft. But it takes a while to coordinate all that new talent. I look for Chris Johnson to have a big day. I don’t see the rushing threat on the other side of the field. Maybe Brady doesn’t need one. But based on the offensive line’s protection of Brady lately I think he does. TITANS.

Jags +4 ½ at Vikings: An extremely strong Jags’ defense should keep this game within 3. JAGS.

Dolphins +10 at Texans: Tannehill can’t possibly be ready to start in this league with the lack of talent he has surrounding him. Complicating his first NFL start is the absence of Jake Long on the offensive line. TEXANS.

Rams +9 at Lions: Don’t look for the same old Rams to show up for this game. Jeff Fisher will have them playing faster and nastier on defense. Sam Bradford continues to mature and improve. It’s hard to coax me into laying 9 points when I look back and see the Lions gave up close to 30 points a game in 3 out of their last 4 regular season games last season. RAMS.

Falcons -2 at Chiefs: Slight edge to the Falcons here with Matt Ryan (if he’s protected better than he was last year) over Matt Cassel. FALCONS.

49ers +5½ at Packers: The Packers needed defense and went after it heavy in the draft. But the Niners already have the meanest, nastiest defense in the NFL. They pile up turnovers like our country piles up debt. They might not get many this Sunday but they’ll find a way to disrupt Aaron Rodgers and cover this spread. NINERS.

Panthers -2 ½ at Bucs: Who knows if Josh Freeman will rebound this season? I’m going to wait and see what the first week looks like before I even offer a comment. Cam Newton showed me enough last season to know he’s not going to regress. PANTHERS.

Seahawks -3 at Cards: This will be one of the more intriguing matchups of Week 1. Pete Carroll’s decision to start Russell Wilson over Matt Flynn remains one of the big shockers of the preseason. Cards finally named Skelton the starter. Shame on the Cards if they can’t figure out how to beat the rookie QB at home. CARDS.

Steelers PK at Broncos: I’m not sure Peyton Manning is back to his old form. But I’m not sure he has to be to win the money here. If the Broncos can beat the Steelers with Tebow under center, shouldn’t they be able to do the same with Peyton Manning calling the plays? BRONCOS.

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Info Plays

7* NY Jets -2½

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Sunday Night Football: Steelers at Broncos

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-1, 46)

Peyton Manning moving to the Denver Broncos and his recovery from multiple neck surgeries was one of the big stories of the offseason. On Sunday night, Manning and the Broncos will get a real look at just how far the four-time NFL MVP has come in his recovery when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers. This version of Denver, with Manning instead of Tim Tebow under center, is very different from the team that knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs last winter - at least offensively. The defense, which sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times and picked him off once, remains largely intact. The Steelers will throw a defense at Manning that led the NFL last season while surrendering only 171.9 passing yards per game.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Broncos -1. O/U: 44.5

ABOUT THE STEELERS (2011: 12-4): Pittsburgh finished 21st in scoring at 20.3 points in 2011 and let offensive coordinator Bruce Arians leave in the offseason, replacing him with former Kansas City Chiefs head coach Todd Haley. The first order of business for Haley will be protecting Roethlisberger and his running backs, who have been operating behind a line with several holes. Roethlisberger has been sacked 122 times in the last seasons. Haley has installed sets with two tight ends and a fullback to help with protection and provide extra weapons beyond wide receivers Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace. The defense returns intact and a year older, though starting free safety Ryan Clark will miss the opener due to a sickle-cell trait that is aggravated at high altitude.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2011: 8-8): Tebow provided plenty of excitement for Denver fans in 2011, but Manning brings the prospect of consistent production from the passing game. Wide receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas give Manning a strong set of targets while Willis McGahee and Lance Ball headline the running game. Thomas provided the picture that the Steelers saw all offseason, breaking for an 80-yard touchdown in overtime in the playoffs. The less-talked about addition to the Broncos was former Jacksonville Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio, who takes over as defensive coordinator. Del Rio has a pair of ends in Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil that combined for 21 sacks last season. Each pulled down Roethlisberger once in the playoff win.

TRENDS
* Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Under is 6-1 in Steelers last seven games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Broncos defense will not have LB D.J. Williams, who has been suspended six games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

2. Manning is 2-1 with six touchdowns and four interceptions in three career regular-season games against Pittsburgh.

3. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 4-1 in season openers.

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49ers at Packers: What bettors need to know

San Francisco at Green Bay (-5, 46.5)

Two teams coming off postseason disappointment face off in one of the premier games of the NFL's opening weekend when the San Francisco 49ers travel to Green Bay to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay is bent on redemption after squandering a 15-1 regular season by bowing out in its first playoff game, while the 49ers will try to make the next step this season after a 20-17 overtime loss to the Super Bowl champion New York Giants in the NFC title game.

It's also a matchup of contrasting quarterbacks, though both were effective in their own right in 2011. Rodgers had one of the best seasons in NFL history with 4,643 passing yards, 45 touchdowns against only six interceptions and a league-record 122.5 rating. San Francisco's Alex Smith also blossomed, but he did so by becoming an effective game manager, passing for 3,144 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Packers lead the all-time series between the traditional NFL powers 30-25-1 and have won the past nine meetings, including all three under coach Mike McCarthy.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Packers -5. O/U: 47.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (2011: 13-3): San Francisco upgraded Smith's receiving corps by adding Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and rookie A.J. Jenkins and added some depth in the backfield by signing Brandon Jacobs and drafting LaMichael James. The 49ers also return virtually everyone from a defense that ranked second in points allowed and fourth in total yards allowed last season.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2011: 15-1): Green Bay didn't do much in the offseason, and it didn't need to. The Packers were dominant in 2011 until the playoffs, and they have the pieces in place to make a deeper playoff run this year. The Packers' biggest change was letting running back Ryan Grant go to free agency and replacing him with Cedric Benson, who is coming off his third consecutive 1,000-yard season.

TRENDS
* Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Week 1.
* Over is 4-0 in Packers’ last four games vs. NFC opponents.
* 49ers are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games in Green Bay.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Packers have 52 wins on kickoff weekend, tied with Chicago for the most ever.

2. Smith has won 14 of his past 17 starts, and the 49ers are 10-0 when he has a rating of 100.0 or better.

3. The 49ers led the NFL with a plus-28 turnover margin last year, the second-best mark in the NFL since 1970.

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Sunday Night Baseball: Dodgers at Giants
By STEVE MERRIL

A pair of southpaws and former Cy Young award winners meet Sunday Night as the Giants host the Dodgers in a key NL West battle.

ZITO'S STREAKING

Barry Zito won the Cy Young award in 2002 with the Oakland Athletics, but has a mediocre 10-8 record with a 4.51 ERA this season. The Giants have won his past six starts, but he’s only factored in the decision twice during that stretch. The lefty has allowed four runs or more in three of his last five outings and has gone 5 1/3 innings or less in four of his last five starts.

Zito has already faced the Dodgers three times this season, allowing seven runs and 18 hits in 18 1/3 innings. He pitched well in his first two starts against the Dodgers, allowing just three runs in 13 innings, but struggled on July 28th, surrendering four runs and seven hits in just 5 1/3 innings.

ACE'S WILD

Clayton Kershaw has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the league the past few seasons and is the defending Cy Young Award winner in the National League. The left-hander is having another strong season with a 12-8 record and an excellent 2.79 ERA with 201 strikeouts.

Kershaw will be facing the Giants for the fifth time this season, pitching solid in each of those outings. He has allowed two runs or less in all four starts versus San Francisco and has squandered only six runs in 31 innings versus the Giants. The Dodgers have gone just 1-3 straight-up in those four games despite his impressive numbers. Kershaw has received little run support, as Los Angeles has scored one run or less in each loss.

INJURY REPORT

The Dodgers have been bitten by the injury bug. Pitchers Kenley Jansen and Chad Billingsley are currently on the DL. Jensen is dealing with a heart ailment and Billingsley is suffering from right elbow pain. Dee Gordon is also on the DL with a thumb problem.

The Giants are missing pitchers Brian Wilson (Tommy John) and Clay Hensley (groin). We also must mention the suspended Melky Cabrera, who will be out for the rest of the regular season and the first five games of the postseason, if San Francisco qualifies.

TRENDS
*Dodgers are 19-7 in Kershaw's last 26 Sunday starts.
*Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 during game three of a series.
*Giants are 8-17 in their last 25 during game three of a series.
*Giants are 8-2 in Zito's last 10 starts with five days’ rest.

HITTERS TO WATCH
Hunter Pence is 1-for-21 vs. Kershaw.
Buster Posey is 6-for-31 vs. Kershaw.
Adrian Gonzalez is 13-for-41 vs. Zito.
Matt Kemp is 24-for-52 vs. Zito.

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Sunday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

STREAKING

Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles (5-1, 4.15)

Britton threw seven shutout innings to earn the win over Toronto on Tuesday. The lefty has racked up four consecutive quality starts and is 4-0 with a miniscule 0.94 ERA during that stretch. He takes the hill at Camden Yards in a key matchup versus the Yankees on Sunday.

James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays (13-8, 3.88)

Shields surrendered three runs and five hits in a victory over the Yankees on Monday. The righty has now allowed three runs or less in each of his last seven starts and takes the mound at the Trop against the high-powered Rangers next.

SLUMPING

Carlos Villanueva, Toronto Blue Jays (7-5, 3.42)

Villanueva allowed a season-high six runs across 6 2/3 innings as Toronto fell 12-0 to Baltimore on Tuesday. The right-hander has served up nine of his 13 home runs allowed this season over his past nine appearances, going 3-5 with a 4.09 ERA. He toes the rubber at Fenway Park against the Red Sox on Sunday afternoon.

Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves (12-8, 4.40)

Hanson gave up two runs in 5 2/3 innings as Atlanta was beaten by Colorado on Tuesday. “Big Red” is 0-3 with a 5.23 ERA in four starts since returning from the DL due to a back strain. He hurls at Citi Field against the Mets next.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with USC Saturday.

Sunday it’s the Dolphins. The deficit is 179 sirignanos.

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Hondo

It was very nippy last night for Hondo, who lost narrowly with both the Marlins and Pirates to boost the debt back up to 2,060 snells.

Today, Mr. Aitch will buckle up the chinstrap and try to hit paydirt with a 10-unit play on the no-circus, all-business Jetsons over the Bills. Also, 10 on Zito and the Giants to conquer the odds against the Dodgers

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Broncos -2

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Mike Hook -NFL CHEAP All Access!

Mike Hook | NFL Side Sun, 09/09/12 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 458 NYJ -2.5 (-120) 5dimes vs 457 BUF

Mike Hook | NFL Side Sun, 09/09/12 - 4:25 PM
double-dime bet 476 ARI 3.0 (-115) bodog vs 475 SEA

Mike Hook | NFL Money Line Sun, 09/09/12 - 8:25 PM
triple-dime bet 478 DEN (-125) BetOnline vs 477 PIT

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Marc Lawrence

Super System Super Play - Tennessee