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Jim Hurley
3* Nc State (+2) over MiamiFlorida
2* Duke (+2½) over Wake Forest
2* So Florida (+17) over Florida State
3* Nc State (+2) over MiamiFlorida
2* Duke (+2½) over Wake Forest
2* So Florida (+17) over Florida State
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Lee Earnest 9-29-12 NCAAF SATURDAY *Released on Thursday*
Take Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5 over Virginia Cavilers ***3 Unit*** 3:30pm EST
You would think that by looking at this game it would be a mismatch; An ACC vs a WAC team and I agree, it is a mis-match but not in the sense that most people would think. This is an extremely bad match-up up for Virginia which is why I wanted to get this play out early before the line goes back up.
Louisiana Tech has been a team that has been flying under the radar so far this season but they have been making big time statements in the games that they have played thus far. Louisiana Tech is a pass heavy team that flows up and down the field quickly and can score points in a hurry as shown by the fact that they are scoring an average of 52 points a game. What is even more impressive that LT scoring that many points is by the fact that they have played 2 out of their 3 games on the road. They hung 56 points on Houston in Houston and just blew out Illinois on their home field 52-24. LT is not going to be intimidated coming in to play Virginia on the road. In fact I believe this game is actually a step down in competition from last week.
Louisiana Tech is a pass heavy offense engineered by QB Colby Cameron. Cameron has been nothing short of dominant as he is completing 69% of his passes for 913 yards and 11 touchdowns thus far and has yet to throw an interception. Their up tempo offense is a nightmare for defense to deal with and they can methodically just move up and down the field with relative ease, picking apart the coverages. Bad news for Virginia is that they have 7 freshman and sophomores that make up their secondary. If Cameron can continue to play the way that he has been he should have no problem carving up this inexperienced secondary and completely dominate this game.
On a good note for Virginia, Louisiana Tech does not have a very good defense themselves but it is masked by the fact that their offense can put points up on the board. Virginia's offense should be able to score some points on this defense however for them to remain in this game they are going to have to keep pace with the high octane offense of LT and I just don't think they can do it. Virginia is only averaging 21 points a game and that is just not going to cut it against LT.
Turnovers are going to play a big role in this game. Louisiana Tech is currently on a 10 game win streak that dates back to last season. During this win streak, LT owns a +21 turnover ration. Virginia managed to cough the ball up 4 times last week against TCU. Having to outscore LT is already a feat in itself; the last thing Virginia can do it turn the ball over against this team and give Cameron that extra possession.
Louisiana Tech is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when the line is +3 to -3, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games. UVA is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when the line is +3 to -3, 4-7 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games, and 6-9 ATS in their last 15 home games. Louisiana Tech wins this one and wins this big, by at least a touchdown.
Take Ball St -1 over Kent State. ***2 Unit*** 12:00pm EST
Kent State has yet to play a team worth mentioning this season. They have beaten Towson at home and managed to beat Buffalo on the road in a game where Buffalo just kept shooting themselves in the foot. Kent State's win in that game I believe was attributed more to Buffalo turning the ball over by their own doing rather than play of Kent State. Kent also lost in blowout fashion to a poor Kentucky team 47-14. In my opinion this game is going to be Kent States toughest test to date. If they struggled with Kentucky, I have a feeling they are going to struggle against Ball St.
Ball St on the other hand has been a surprise this season and they are the more battle tested team. They hold victories over Indiana, South Florida and Eastern Michigan. They fell short in Clemson but did manage to put up 27 points in that defeat. Ball St has the edge when it comes to playing the more competitive teams. This game is what I feel a step down in competition and should allow Ball St to move the ball with greater ease and continue building their offense's confidence which just seems to be clicking at the moment. Kent St has thrived on turnovers and Ball St is a very stingy team when it comes to handing the ball over. In the first 2 games Ball turned the ball over 3 times, however in the games against South Florida and Indiana they had zero.
Ball St is 7-2 SU against Kent State since 1992. Kent won the most recent meeting between these 2 teams back in 2010 33-14. This is a different year with different players. Ball St is the better team this season and it will show in this game.
Take Ohio St +3 over Michigan State *** 1 UNIT *** 3:30pm EST
Take Missouri +3 over UCF ***1 Unit*** 12:00pm ESTComment
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Handicapper: Godfather Locks
Minnesota vs. Iowa (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-110 Iowa Play Title: 500* LINE ERROR of the DAY
At BetUS
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For the Noon games I see this line is the "line error of the day". The Minnesota Gophers are 4-0 on the year and have looked good on defense through their first 4 games. Iowa is off to a bad start of 2-2 and coming off a terrible loss at home to Central Michigan. All this being said and the Hawkeyes are a 6.5 point favorite?? How does this make sense? Well we do know that Minnesota QB Grey is out which does affect the offense, but why would Iowa be this heavily favored against a 4-0 Gopher team that has played well. That's what makes this a line error pick of the day. Iowa has lost to Minnesota two straight seasons and that will change today. The defense for Iowa needs to play better and with the strong run game that they have it will help them move the ball on Minnesota. Kirk Ferentz has some pressure on him and today will help his cause. Look for Iowa to win this game by 10 or so and cover the 6.5 points here today. This home crowd is hungry for a win and it would be a start to making this season a better outcome by opening BIG 10 play with a win. Take Iowa -6.5.
Handicapper: Godfather Locks
Colorado State vs. Air Force (NCAAF) - 2:00 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -14.0/-110 Air Force Play Title: 1000* Early Afternoon Lock
At BetUS
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12-4-1 in the last 17 1000* picks and I take this selection to an unnoticed game on the board. Colorado State pays a visit to Air Force in the early afternoon games. When I look at Air Force I see a team that is better than a 1-2 team. They lost two straight road games against Michigan, which they were right in, and UNLV, which was a tough spot coming off that hard fought loss to Michigan. Thankfully for this squad they get to come back home and play a Colorado State team that is still trying to find their identity. Not a good spot for the Rams to find themselves on the road against the spread attack from the Falcons. Colorado State's worst loss was most notably in Week 2 when they dropped a 22-7 game at home to North Dakota State. This is a really hard spot for the Rams to come into Air Force and beat a hungry Falcon team. I look for Air Force to do everything they want on offense and will have no problem containing the Rams. Air Force gets a nice bounce back win today after two tough losses on the road. Air Force will be a 1000* early afternoon selection going for winner #13 of 18 with those picks. Air Force -14.Comment
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Brian Edwards's Pick Pack
NCAA Football Saturday Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Tennessee at Georgia
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Georgia (-13.5 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 27, 2012 @ 4:04:57 PM EDT
Georgia has been impressive in racing out to a 4-0 record with wins vs. Buffalo (45-23), at Missouri (41-20), vs. FAU (56-20) and vs. Vandy (48-3). The Bulldogs got their first two victories even though four starters on defense were suspended. We still haven't seen two of those guys, perennial All-SEC safety Baccari Rambo and LB Alec Ogletree, but both will return to the starting lineup Saturday vs. Tennessee. The Vols are struggling mightily on defense, allowing a previously-pedestrian Florida offense to explode for 27 second-half points in a 37-20 loss to the Gators. Then UT allowed Akron to score 26 points and gain 344 yards of total offense. This is the best offense the Vols have faced with UGA's veteran QB Aaron Murray, who has a 10/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and freshman sensation Todd Gurley, who has rushed for 406 yards and six TDs while averaging 9.2 yards per carry. I think the Vols go into this game knowing they need to score at least 31, probably 35-38, points to have a chance at pulling the upset. That's a lot of pressure to put on talented QB Tyler Bray, who isn't getting much help from a stagnant rushing attack. Bray and WRs Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson are going to make plays and put up points, but I don't see the Vols defense slowing UGA's offense down at all. And when UGA gets the lead, its defense is going to come after Bray with a lot of pressure. I think this will force him into some mistakes and UGA will pull away to cover the double-digit spread.
Matchup: Toledo at W. Michigan
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Toledo (+1.5 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 28, 2012 @ 11:04:17 AM EDT
This play is all about the quarterbacks. Toledo QB Terrance Owens is playing outstanding right now, as evidenced by nine TD passes and zero interceptions. For his career, Owens has a 40/8 TD-INT ratio. The Rockets are 2-0 ATS on the road this year, losing in overtime at Arizona and winning 34-31 at Wyoming. As for Western Michigan's senior QB Alex Carder, a four-year starter, he is 'out' after sustaining a hand injury last week. Give me Toledo.
Matchup: Wisconsin at Nebraska
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Wisconsin (+13 -110)
Line Source: BetGrande
Posted on: September 26, 2012 @ 11:47:18 AM EDT
I know Wisconsin has been a major disappointment so far this season, but that's why we find the Badgers catching an inflated, double-digit number in this spot. Bret Bielema's team hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points since going down 31-13 at Ohio St. midway through the 2009 campaign. Montee Ball was upgraded to 'probable' late Wednesday morning and even if he's not 100 percent, the Badgers have a veteran RB in James White who might be the best back-up RB in the country. Give me Wisconsin catching double digits.
Member Plays
Matchup: W. Kentucky at Arkansas State
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: W. Kentucky (-2 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: September 27, 2012 @ 6:08:43 PM EDT
Western Kentucky has won at Kentucky and last week beat the snot out of Southern Miss by a 42-17 score. The Hilltoppers are getting excellent QB play out of Kawaun Jakes, who has completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 806 yards with an 8/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Western Ky. is 3-1 straight up with its lone loss coming at top-ranked Alabama, and it is one of just five teams in the nation with a perfect 4-0 spread record. Arky St. will be without starting LB Qushaun Lee, who is suspended. The Red Wolves aren't what they were last year when they won the Sun Belt. Give me the better team laying the short number in its conference openerComment
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Christian Alexander's Pick Pack
NCAA Football Saturday Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Penn State at Illinois
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Penn State (+1 -110)
Line Source: Peppermill
Posted on: September 27, 2012 @ 10:27:57 PM EDT
The Nittany Lions could very easily be 4-0 this year if not for a blown lead in week 1 where the pressure finally caught up to them in the second half and a 1 point loss in week two where they missed multiple field goals including the game winner at the end. Penn State’ quarterback Matt McGloin has been much better than expected while the Illinois offense has been extremely underwhelming so far. But the key to this game is the fact that defensively Illinois is much better against the run than the pass and Penn St has simply abandoned the run with the departure of Silas Redd and relies entirely on Matt McGloin and the passing game. I look for that trend to continue in this game and look for Penn St to win outright in Champagne this weekend.
Matchup: Indiana at Northwestern
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Northwestern (-11 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 28, 2012 @ 5:01:19 PM EDT
Northwestern is 4-0 this year with wins over 3 BCS teams while still getting no respect. Indiana on the other hand has 2 wins over an FCS and a 1st yr FBS program. NW RB Venric Mark has been the sensational this year averaging 179 all-purpose yards per game which ranks 8th nationally. Northwestern won this game at Indiana last year 59-38 and is even better this year. Northwestern will take advantage of the IU back-up quarterbacks and roll in this game early and ride Mark to an easy cover.
Matchup: Miami (OH) at Akron
Time: 2:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Miami (OH) (-3 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 28, 2012 @ 9:47:27 AM EDT
Terry Bowden has certainly improved an Akron team that has struggled in years past. But this line is much too low based on The Redhawks lackluster performance last week against a very poor UMass team, while Akron hung around against Tennessee for a half before being blown out in the second half. The ‘hawks will certainly be ready to play this week against Akron and should have no problem scoring often against an Akron defense that ranks 115th in the country in scoring defense. Miami (OH) will simply put too many points on the board for Akron to stay in this game and I’ll gladly take the Redhawks only laying a FG.
Matchup: Boise State at New Mexico
Time: 6:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Boise State (-25.5 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 28, 2012 @ 9:47:01 AM EDT
While the Boise offense has certainly taken a sharp decline since the departure of Kellen Moore, the defense has been very sharp thus far. This week they take on a New Mexico offense that has also struggled under Bob Davie when facing quality defenses. While the number may seem big for a struggling offense, sooner than later Boise is going to improve under QB Joe Southwick and I look for that to take place this week as the Boise defense will allow them to play with a comfortable lead, dominate the TOP and wear down the New Mexico defense as a result. I also expect a defensive TD or two for Boise in this game as they cover with ease against a team that they are extremely more talented than.
Matchup: Texas-San Antonio at New Mex St
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: New Mex St (+1.5 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 28, 2012 @ 9:45:47 AM EDT
UTSA is 4-0. UTSA has not beaten a single team you have ever heard of. Point being, they have managed to make themselves look much better than they are and thus deflated this line significantly. While New Mexico State is 1-3 and has certainly not played SEC caliber competition they have at least competed against DI schools. This will be a step up in class for UTSA and the bottom line is that New Mexico is simply a more talent team and playing at home should win this game by at least a touchdown.
Member Plays
Matchup: Mississippi at Alabama
Time: 9:15 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Alabama (-29.5 -110)
Line Source: Bet Phoenix
Posted on: September 27, 2012 @ 10:29:21 PM EDT
Ole Miss has two very large problems in this game. The Bama defense is as fast if not faster than the Ole Miss Spread attack on offense, and the Ole Miss defense was completely exposed to the tune of 66 points against a Texas offense that is very similar in style. Bama likes to run the ball first avg 204 yards per game and QB A.J. McCarron has 10 TDs with no INT’s on the season. While Alabama may not match the 66 points put up by Texas on Ole Miss, I just don’t see them having any trouble moving up and down the field while limiting Ole Miss on offense. Nick Saban was openly upset at his team’s performance last week against Florida Atlantic and I look for them to come and more than make up for that in this game.
I have dominated the books the last two weeks with a 12-4 (75%) record. I have the rest of my Saturday selections already posted so be sure to get the rest of my expert selections now including a discount on my season package!
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Texas at Oklahoma St
Time: 7:50 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Over (65.0 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 27, 2012 @ 10:29:21 PM EDT
Texas Quarterback David Ash has looked far better this year completing 76% of his passes while throwing for 7 TD’s and no INT’s. Yet the key to the Texas offense has been the running game where they are averaging 259 yards a game. They are facing a an Oklahoma St defense that ranks 81st in the country and gave up 59 points to an avg Arizona offense in week 2. As a result each of the first three Oklahoma St games has hit the over. If you take out the Savannah St shutout that number is even worse. The Texas defense on the other hand has been spotty at best this year giving up big plays against Ole Miss and Wyoming. Oklahoma St will probably be without starting quarterback Wes Lunt, however their talented backup J.W. Walsh threw for 347 yards on 30 pass plays when he came in against UL Lafayette. I think both teams will look to exploit the hidden weaknesses so far on defense and I think this game ends up in the mid to high 70’s when it’s all said and done.
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James Manos's Pick Pack
NCAA Football Saturday Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: NC State at Miami (FL)
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: NC State (+3 -120)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 28, 2012 @ 7:16:48 AM EDT
I am high on this Wolfpack team this year and despite their disappointing effort in their opener vs Tennessee, I still feel they can have a solid season. This is not the Miami team your dad knew. The Hurricanes do possess talent and speed but they are small and young and defensively they leave alot to be desired. The Wolfpack own an advantage at the QB position with SR Glennon being one of the ACC's best, they also own a distinct HC advantage and the Wofpack have been good (13-8 ATS) as an away dog under O'Brien. NC State enters off of easy games vs South Alabama and The Citadel so they should be well prepped and rested for their ACC opener while the Canes enter on the heels of a wild affair at Georgia Tech and with Notre Dame on deck. I think the better team is getting points here and will grab the plus.
Aloha.
Matchup: Ball State at Kent
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Kent (+3 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: September 29, 2012 @ 10:35:47 AM EDT
I've been impressed by what Ball St. has done so far this season and their two SU dog wins in the last two weeks have been impressive, but that just sets them up for a poor performance here. Ball St. gets it done with all offense and they'll face the MAC's best D here. Kent St. impressed me in their win over Buffalo and their RB tandem should be able to punish the middle of a weak Cardinal front seven. Kent St. has been the hottest ATS team in the MAC since the middle of LY and continue to improve. I was going to table this play but with the line moving in the wrong direction and now giving us the benefit of the full +3, I'll jump in and grab the points.
Aloha.
Matchup: Tulsa at UAB
Time: 3:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: UAB (+16 -110)
Line Source: Bet Phoenix
Posted on: September 29, 2012 @ 9:55:53 AM EDT
In case you haven't figured it out yet, I'm not a fan of this Tulsa team. I've gone agains them twice this season as inflated faves and been rewarded both times, so I'll do it again here. This UAB team is no great shakes but it can be argued that this will be the weakest opponent they've faced so far this season. Tulsa QB Green has not been good and this is an usual and difficult roadtrip. Tulsa has scored just 23 and 27 pts vs their two legit opponents and a similar outburst here will make it difficult to cover the more than 2 TD spot. UAB can do enough offensively to keep this game closer than expected. Grab the points.
Aloha.
Matchup: Louisiana Tech at Virginia
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Virginia (+3.5 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 29, 2012 @ 10:31:09 AM EDT
I am high on this La. Tech team but this is not a favorable situation for them and after LW's upset of Illinois they find themselves overvalued here. Virginia has played a tougher schedule and own the better defense. La. Tech is superior offensively but this is a tough travel for them especiall of a SU road dog win last week. Virginia needs better QB play but have the secondary talent and size to compete here. I think the Cavaliers can pull the outright upset here and I'll grab the points.
Aloha.
Matchup: Arizona State at California
Time: 4:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: California (+1.5 -110)
Line Source: BetGrande
Posted on: September 29, 2012 @ 9:29:08 AM EDT
I am suprised by the line shift here and even more suprised that Cal remained as a home dog until gameday. I think the Bears are undervalued and have faced a very diffcult schedule YTD. Arizona St. is improved but are breaking in a new coach for conference play and have benefitted from playing several teams starting backup QB's. Cal must see an improvement in their OL play but if they can protect QB Maynard they'll win this game easily.
Aloha.
Matchup: W. Kentucky at Arkansas State
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Over (58.0 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 28, 2012 @ 7:16:48 AM EDT
This play is based mostly on our offensive efficiency ratings as I have both teams projected to score >30 points. In addtion, my numbers call for both teams to rush and pass for more than 200 yards apiece and that is a strong indicator for offensive success. My numbers made the total for this game 63 so we do gain some value. WKU returns a talented offensive unit while Arkansas St. gets the benefit of offensive guru HC Malzahn in his home conference opener (breaking out the bag of tricks?), so I expect some offensive fireworks. This number playable up to 59.5 but grab it before it gets there. OVER.
Aloha.
Matchup: Texas at Oklahoma St
Time: 7:50 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Under (66.0 -110)
Line Source: Peppermill
Posted on: September 28, 2012 @ 7:16:48 AM EDT
This number on the decline and with good reason as the opener was inflated and this number is still too high. Both of these defensvie units will be better than the offenses they face and also will have much more experience. Texas has been a defensive minded school since their fall from grace and I don't see that changing so quickly, despite their apparent improvement offensively this season. OSU is typically an offensive dynamo but return a talented defense and a will be staring a backup rFR QB here. The Cowboys can protect their young QB with a quality ground game and with an extra week to prepare (both teams off byes) expect these defenses to be well prepared for formations and schemes. I think this game stays close, leading both coaches to lean on their experienced units and keep this game lower scoring. Don't be fooled by OSU's offensive success vs the three patsy defenses they've faced. UNDER.Comment
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