9-30-12

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49ers at Jets: What bettors need to know

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (+4, 40.5)

The New York Jets suffered a crushing blow when it was revealed that star defensive back Darrelle Revis would miss the rest of the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. If that news wasn’t bad enough, they are also going to have to find a way to get their offense going against the San Francisco 49ers this week. For the third time in the first four weeks, the 49ers will have to travel at least two time zones to play on the road.

The Minnesota Vikings used a mobile quarterback to get around San Francisco’s fearsome defense, which means Tim Tebow could see more touches this week for New York. Tebow has been most effective on special teams early in the season and has yet to assert himself as an offensive playmaker with the Jets. New York will be looking to drop San Francisco to .500 when the teams meet in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Oddsmakers opened the 49ers as 3-point road favorites which was bet up to -4. The total dropped from 40.5 to 39.5 before being bet back to the original number.

WEATHER: The forecast for MetLife Stadium is calling for a 50 percent chance of rain with temperatures dipping into the mid-60s. Winds will blow NNE at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): San Francisco was on the very short list of the best teams in the NFL after convincing wins over the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, but slipped up last week in a 24-13 loss at Minnesota. The 49ers struggled to contain Christian Ponder in the pocket, and Alex Smith was uncharacteristically sloppy at quarterback. They just have to get through New York before enjoying a stretch of five of their next six games at home. San Francisco could try to exploit the Jets’ Revis-less secondary by featuring Randy Moss, who has been limited to eight catches in the first three weeks. Smith got a pair of new receivers in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham in the offseason but is still focusing on tight end Vernon Davis in the passing game.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-1, 2-1 ATS): There is plenty of doom and gloom surrounding New York after Revis’ diagnosis. The Pro Bowler served as the quarterback of the Jets defense, and his ability to lock down a receiver in single coverage made it easier for Rex Ryan to call multiple blitz packages. Now that Revis is done, Antonio Cromartie steps into the No. 1 cornerback slot and Kyle Wilson will replace Revis in the lineup. New York showed several areas of weakness in a sloppy 23-20 overtime win in Miami last weekend, including a running game that is averaging just 3.3 yards per attempt. Tebow lined up for 12 plays with the offense against Miami and accounted for zero yards. The Wildcat packages designed to get him onto the field have not worked and Tebow spent most of his time at H-back in Miami. Mark Sanchez has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in each of the last two weeks.

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* 49ers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games vs. team with winning road record.
* Over is 26-11 in Jets' last 37 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Sanchez will be without one of his weapons on Sunday, with rookie receiver Stephen Hill (hamstring) expected to sit out.

2. The 49ers are 10-1 under coach Jim Harbaugh when winning the time of possession battle and 5-3 when coming out on the short end.

3. San Francisco KR Kyle Williams set a career high with 144 yards on returns last week, outgaining the offense by himself at one point.

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Join DateMay 2007LocationOhioPosts129,463

Saints at Packers: What bettors need to know

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-9, 53)

Drew Brees recently said the replacement referees were “an embarrassment to the league.” Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers agreed. The good news is the regular referees will be back on the field - the NFLRA and the league reached an agreement late Wednesday - when the Packers try to rebound and send the the New Orleans Saints to just their second 0-4 start in 16 seasons Sunday at Lambeau Field. Brees’ Saints may be searching for answers after blowing an 18-point lead to fall to 0-3 last week, but the Packers are feeling the biggest losers heading into their Week 4 matchup after being robbed of a win Monday night.

Green Bay was leading Seattle 12-7 when the replacement referees ruled that Golden Tate hauled in a Hail Mary and upheld the call upon review, despite visual evidence that showed M.D. Jennings clearly had made a game-clinching interception. The backlash quickly forced a deal between the league and the officials. This is the first meeting since the memorable 2011 season-opening shootout that was won by the Packers 42-34 thanks to a last-second goal-line stand.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Packers -9, O/U 53

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s and sunny skies at Lambeau Field. Winds will be light out of east.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (0-3): Who ‘Dat? The answer, lately, is everyone. The Saints, who are still dealing with the fallout of Bountygate, are 0-3 for the first time since 2007 after losing to Kansas City 27-24 in overtime last week. Brees, who signed a five-year, $100 million contract this summer, hasn’t looked the same without suspended head coach Sean Payton calling the plays, and the defense has been atrocious (league-worst 477.3 ypg). Brees broke his own completion percentage record last season (71.6), but is connecting on just 54.7 percent of his attempts, the lowest rate since he became a full-time starter. He has a pedestrian touchdown-to-interception ratio (7 TDs, 5 INTs). Brees’ main target has been running back Darren Sproles, who leads the team with 18 catches. The speedy Sproles failed to record a reception for the first time since 2010 last week. Meanwhile, TE Jimmy Graham has a touchdown catch in six straight games.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-2): Green Bay is seething after having a game literally ripped away from it on Monday night. Several Packers players took to Twitter, bashing the league and the outcome. But they have other issues to address, mainly the fact that Rodgers has been sacked more times (16) than any quarterback after being taken down eight times in the first half of Monday’s loss. The poor protection has led to the Packers being ranked 24th in scoring (19.0). Like Brees, something is amiss about Rodgers as well. After throwing 45 touchdowns last season, the reigning league MVP has just three thus far. Green Bay’s defense is markedly improved, perhaps in part to Charles Woodson’s move to safety, and is No. 1 in the league against the pass (125.3 ypg). Linebacker Clay Matthews is well on his way to a bounce-back season, leading the league with six sacks.

TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. “(The) 13th man beat us tonight.” – a tweet from Green Bay tight end Tom Crabtree in reference to Seattle’s famed 12th man – the 13th man being the officials.

2. The Saints are 2-9 on the road against the Packers.

3. New Orleans didn’t record a single first down in its final 12 offensive snaps last week. Brees was 0-for-6 in the fourth quarter and overtime.

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NFL Prop Shop: Week 4's best prop plays
By SEAN MURPHY

We had to settle for a 2-2 split last week, leaving our prop record at 7-5 on the season.

Here's a look at four picks to consider this Sunday.

Most passing yards

Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Mark Sanchez (New York Jets)

We managed to cash our ticket with Smith over Christian Ponder last week, despite an off day from the Niners offense. I do expect San Francisco to bounce back strong against the Revis-less Jets and Smith should continue his streak of 200-yard passing games to open the season.

I won't be surprised if the Jets give Tim Tebow a little more to chew in the offense, just to keep the stingy Niners defense on its heels. Mark Sanchez should be in line for some regression after throwing for over 300 yards in an overtime game in Miami last Sunday.

Take: Smith

Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) vs. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)

What's wrong with the Saints? We'll hear plenty of that talk leading up this highly-anticipated contest. The fact is, Drew Brees continues to bomb away, having thrown for over 900 yards already this season. If the Saints are going to pick up their first win of the season, it's going to have to come on the shoulders, or should I say the arm, of Brees.

Lost in all of the controversy surrounding the Monday nighter was the fact that the Packers offense still didn't look very good. Aaron Rodgers looks out of sync with his receiving corps, as evidenced by the fact that he's passed for only 745 yards and three touchdowns this season. I wouldn't count on things improving against a desperate Saints team.

Take: Brees

Most rushing yards

Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots) vs. Tashard Choice (Buffalo Bills)

The Patriots were big winners in their season-opener in Tennessee and a lot of their success had to do with the contributions of Stevan Ridley, as he ran for 125 yards and a score on 21 carries. His role has diminished in each of the past two weeks, but I'm expecting Bill Bellichick to return to his feature back in an effort to relieve some of the pressure on Tom Brady.

Tashard Choice is the next man up for the Bills after losing both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller to injury. He looked good in mop-up duty against the Browns last week, but will find the going much tougher against a hungry Patriots defense this week. Jackson was back at practice this week and there is a slim chance he may play and share carries.

Take: Ridley

Most pass receptions

Steve Smith (Carolina Panthers) vs. Roddy White (Atlanta Falcons)

The Panthers were embarrassed by the Giants last Thursday night and figure to come out with plenty of fire in Atlanta. Cam Newton gets all the headlines, but Steve Smith is still the key to their offensive success. He's more than familiar with this divisional matchup and hauled in 11 catches for 191 yards in two games against the Falcons last year.

Roddy White is no longer Matt Ryan's favorite target with top billing now going to Julio Jones. I still expect White to warrant plenty of attention from the Panthers corners. Note that he had nine catches in two games against Carolina last season.

Take: Smith

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Can't keep a good arm down: NFL's top QBs will rebound
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

Blame BountyGate. Blame injuries. Blame the offensive lines. Blame the refs.

Just blame somebody – anybody – for the uneven performances of the teams with the three best pure passers in the NFL. Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been off plumb this season, and as a result the Saints, Patriots and Packers are a cumulative 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS. All three All-Pros have suffered a significant drop in production.

Wasn’t this supposed to be a passing league, and aren’t these three the cream of the crop?

Rodgers can rightly claim that his Packers would be 2-1 if they weren’t jobbed by the refs in the Seahawks loss, but Green Bay’s offensive problems run a bit deeper. He was sacked three times (24 yards lost) in the opening day loss to San Francisco and it’s only gotten worse since then – five sacks for 31 yards lost against Chicago and eight for 39 yards at Seattle.

The Patriots’ tight end-centric offense blew a piston rod when Aaron Hernandez went down and coverages rolled to Rob Gronkowski, but there are other issues, primarily Brady’s inability to go deep. Receiver Brandon Lloyd isn’t completely in sync with Brady yet, and New England’s problem moving the ball late in the Baltimore game cost the Pats a win.

Brees can still throw the ball (377 yards a game in total offense, 10th in the league), but the Saints’ defense would have trouble stopping Central Michigan. When your defense gives up 215 yards a game (60 more than Cincinnati, the next-worst team) rushing, you have serious time of possession problems. In the Washington and Kansas City losses, Brees was on the field for only 47 (to 81 for the opponents) minutes total.

The good news? It’s temporary, at least according to Covers Expert Ben Burns.

“The Packers should be 2-1 ATS,” notes Burns in an obvious reference to Monday night’s ref debacle. “They’re too well-coached and talented to let that game ruin their season. The Saints may have dug themselves too deep (0-3) a hole but they will improve. Probably too little, too late though. And the Pats will be fine.”

Burns did note that the Patriots appear to be overvalued this week, laying more than a field goal (4) at Buffalo.

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Betting on Vick and Eagles "like playing Russian Roulette”
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

All the vital signs indicate that the Philadelphia Eagles should be resting comfortably at the bottom of the NFC East.

Life and death to beat the Browns, for crying out loud. A three-touchdown loss at Arizona. A league-high total of 12 turnovers over three games. Michael Vick has been sacked nine times, and opposing defenses have knocked him to the ground on 28 plays.

The Eagles may still be taking solid food and are at 2-1 SU, tied atop the NFC East heading into Sunday night’s battle against the Giants in Philadelphia. But they’re 0-3 ATS and the public had none of it when they opened at -3.5 (47). The spread has been bet down to either Philly -1 or -1.5, depending on where you shop.

Heavy Giants action is surely a reaction to great play over the last two games (since halftime of Week 2 against Tampa Bay, New York has been on a 64-17 tear). Also, skepticism about the Eagles has lingered since last weekend’s 27-6 touchdown-free loss at Arizona. No harm in losing to a good team on the road and the Eagles were able to grit out a one-point win at home against Baltimore, but few outside the Philly environs seem convinced.

New York has pretty much tipped its hand defensively and plans to make life as difficult as possible for Vick.

"I just think it used to be try to contain him, don't pressure him because he'll run in the pocket,” linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka told the New Jersey Star Ledger. “Now it's more just like go out there (and attack.) I think you're seeing other teams adopt that same game plan and [the Eagles are] squeaking these games out so it's not working 100 percent, but it is getting him hit and in a 16-game season that will catch up to you."

Whatever the Giants are selling, bettors are buying. For this one, anyway. As of Friday the public was banging the Giants by a 2-1 margin, with more play on the over even at the aggressive total of 47.

Covers Expert Marc Lawrence has words of caution for those who are thinking of backing the Birds.

“Since 1980,” says Lawrence, “teams that started the season 0-3 ATS have gone 41-58-4 in Week 4, including 6-22-1 ATS when facing an opponent coming off back-to-back wins. And backing a turnover machine like Michael Vick as the favorite… is like playing Russian Roulette.”

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Books stand pat on Week 4 totals after Week 3 under trend
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

Has the onslaught of first and second-year quarterbacks resulted in offenses dialing back?

“With so many young quarterbacks or changes at QB, it’s taken some time for pass-oriented offenses to click,” Aron Black, of bet365.com, told Covers.

Black points out that some of the league’s best offenses are struggling, which leads to covers for underdogs, which tends to favor the under.

Last week, the under carried in 10 of 16 games, leading to spec that books would soon start dialing back a bit on totals that have already been set at 50 or above six times this season.

No major adjustment has been made just yet and at least one offshore book hasn’t seen a flood of under money, but there are reports out of Las Vegas that sharps were able to cash nicely on under plays last weekend.

“Losing or not covering as a favorite is one thing,” says Black, “but not scoring more than a field goal or two in some of the cases of favorites doesn’t get you even close to the total.”

Despite the lower scoring, Black hasn’t noticed significant movement toward under play this weekend. And the totals for this week are not much different than in Week 3. The average total for games this week is 45.33 - down only a fraction from last week’s 45.37. Week 1 games averaged a 43.93 total and things have pretty much leveled off since Week 2 games averaged 45.0.

The over/under for the Miami-Arizona and Seattle-St. Louis games is at 39 points for this Sunday, two of only five under-40 totals for the season. And, of course, under players are off to a good start after Thursday night’s game, which finished 23-16 and under the 44-point total.

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Jeff Benton

Sunday's Action

100 Dime winner going out on the Sunday NFL schedgle on the Carolina Panthers on the road agajinst the Atlanta Falcons. The spread as I type my analnysis on Saturday night is Carolina +7 points both here in Vegas and offshore.




Bob Valentino

75 DIME NFL Dog the Year PART 2 ...

75 DIME NFL relegse on the Carolina Panthersplus the points over the Atlanta Falcons. At the time I publish this selejction at 9 pm Eastern Saturday, the consnnsus odds have Carolina getting +7 points both in Vegas and overseas. Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point on the Panthers at anywhere from +6 1/2 to +7.

Once again, I remind you to maximize your moneymaking possibilities by shopping around to get the most favorable odds available.

Anthony Redd

Sunday's Play

100 Dime selgction on the Kansas City Chiefs against the San Diego Chargers. As I rejlease this play at 8:35 pm Pacific Saturday night in Vegas, the line on KC is anywhere from +1' to even depending on where you check here in Vegas and offshnre.

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NFL - Sunday, Sept. 30th

TOP (3 UNITS)
FALCONS -7 vs panthers (10am)
CHARGERS -1.5 at chiefs (10am)
TEXANS -11.5 vs titans (10am)
JETS +4 vs 49'ers (10am)
BENGALS -1 at jaguars (1pm)
PACKERS -7.5 vs saints (1:25pm)
REDSKINS +2 at buccaneers (1:25pm)
GIANTS +3 at eagles (SNF)
COWBOYS -3.5 vs bears (MNF)

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RED_Line System Plays went a nice 4-1 yesterday on 5* college plays. Here are the NFL Sunday Plays

5* Atlanta -7
5* Houston -12
5* Arizona -5
5* Tampa Bay -2

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ASA's Pick Pack

NFL Sunday Picks

Premium Plays

Matchup: Carolina at Atlanta
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Carolina (+7 -110)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 29, 2012 @ 12:41:35 PM EDT

PLAY ON: #209 Carolina (+7) over Atlanta – 1:00 PM EST

The Panthers had a long week off after playing against the New York Giants last Thursday. Carolina was off of the big win over division rival New Orleans, the Panthers were flat after a short week of practice and were eaten badly by the Giants. Cam Newton played one of the worst games of his young career. He completed just 16-of-30 passes on the night with no touchdowns and three bad interceptions. Expect a much sharper performance here after getting embarrassed at home like that. They used the off week Carolina coaches have stated that they need to get back to pounding the football after only averaging 96 rushing yards per game through three weeks. Jonathan Stewart is questionable for this game, but the Panthers still have DeAngelo Williams, Mike Goodson, and Cam Newton who can all do some damage with their feet. If they can get a running game established similar to what they average per game last season (150 rush yards per game), they’ll have a great shot at covering here against Atlanta. The Falcons have had an extremely difficult travel schedule over the first three weeks. They played at Kansas City in week one, played at home against Denver on Monday Night Football in week two, had a short week to prepare for a west coast game in San Diego last week, and now return back home to the east coast this Sunday. There is a lot of talk about Atlanta being the best team in football right now. The Falcons are one of three undefeated teams and are certainly playing well, but they’re extremely fortunate to be 3-0. They were outgained and had fewer first downs against Kansas City in week one and against Denver in week two. They are already +10 on turnover margin this season as they’ve only turned the ball over once offensively while forcing 11 turnovers on defense. Atlanta won both meetings a season go, but both were extremely close. Carolina held a 4th quarter lead in both games, but Atlanta combined to outscore the Panthers 31-0 in both 4th quarters. Carolina will be motivated to unseat the 3-0 Falcons and we expect the Panthers to cover as the underdog.


Matchup: Seattle at St. Louis
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: St. Louis (+3 -120)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 29, 2012 @ 1:51:48 PM EDT

Obviously a really bad spot here for Seattle. After their “hail mary” win over Green Bay on Monday night, they now travel to St. Louis on a short week. The Rams should be a bit Feisty here after getting dominated @ Chicago by motivated Bears team who was coming off an embarrassing loss @ GB. We look for a huge letdown here from the Seahawks who were at a fever pitch Monday as they are rarely in the spotlight on Monday night (first time since 2007). Realistically both of these teams should be 1-2 at the moment, however as we know, Seattle is now 2-1. Because of that, they are now laying points to a Rams team that is 1-0 at home beating Washington a few weeks back. Seattle’s defense has been very solid, however their offense isn’t one that will win big very often. They have been very conservative with a rookie QB Russell Wilson at the helm. They are averaging only 4.5 yards per play which is dead last in the NFL. Wilson failed in his first road start losing @ Arizona as a favorite. This will be his second chance and it’s far from ideal circumstances. The Seahawks have not done well overall in this spot going just 4-11 ATS their last 15 as a road chalk (lost 8 of those games outright). Not only that, home dogs in the NFL this year are 13-5-1 ATS and 12-7 SU. We’ll call for another outright win by a team getting points at home. Rams win this one.

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Cincinnati at Jacksonville
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (42.5 -110)
Line Source: Stratosphere
Posted on: September 28, 2012 @ 11:59:50 AM EDT

NOW 22-8-1 SINCE JAN 1 IN THE NFL! After a BLOWOUT WIN Monday night with the Under in the Packers/Seahawks game we came right back with a solid winner last night with the Browns. The beat goes on and the best way for you to take advantage of ASA's 45+ years of handicapping experience is to sign up for a MONTH or YEARLY package. PLUS you save yourself money in the process. More wins coming this weekend! ASA

PLAY ON: OVER - Cincinnati vs. Jacksonville - 4:00 PM EST

This weekend one number really stood out to us when the lines came out Sunday evening and that’s the ‘OVER’ 43 points in the Bengals at Jaguars game. We were actually hoping to see a total of 45 or less and knew instantly we had a solid wager when it opened at 43. Cincinnati has been awful defensively allowing 44, 27 and 31 points in their three games this year. They are 29th in the NFL in yards per point and 30th in yards per play allowed. The Bengals are second to last or 31st in points per game given up at 34 per game. It’s not just a trend this season either as they gave up 44, 35, 13, 31, 20 and 20 in their last six games a season ago. Now you could argue that the Jaguars offense isn’t great and won’t be able to take advantage of the Bengals defense but that’s where you would be wrong. Remember Jacksonville’s second year QB Blaine Gabbert is still learning the system and the RB Jones Drew signed with the team right before the first game of the season after sitting out the exhibition season. In other words they still have some growing pains but they’ll have success this weekend against a porous Bengals D. In fact, Jacksonville has been OK this season if you take out their one game against the Texans and the best defense in the NFL as they put up 23 points against the Vikings and 22 versus the Colts. Cincinnati is going to score points against this Jags D too as they have the 8th best offense in total yards (391 per game) and scoring at 28.3 ppg. Jacksonville is 17th in points per game allowed at 23.2 ppg and 22nd in yards per play against at 5.7 yppl. We have two solid offenses, two bad defenses and a manageable pointspread to work with. Sounds like a good bet to me. PLAY OVER THE TOTAL!

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Stephen Nover's Pick Pack

NFL Sunday Picks

Premium Plays

Matchup: San Francisco at N.Y. Jets
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: San Francisco (-3.5 -110)
Line Source: The Greek
Posted on: September 27, 2012 @ 2:26:52 PM EDT

Caught in a flat spot, the 49ers were upset by the Vikings on the road this past Sunday. The 49ers are spending the week in Youngstown, Ohio practicing and stewing about that defeat.

Under Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers have always won and covered following a loss. They were 3-0 SU and ATS in that situation last season.

The 49ers have been a covering maching under Harbaugh going 14-6-1 (70 percent). The 49ers possess the most physical defense in the league. The Jets are weak at the skill positions. They are below average at quarterback, they lack a running back with speed and their wideouts are nothing special. The Jets are primarily a running team, but the 49ers have allowed only one rushing touchdown in their last six games.

The 49ers possess not only the better defense, but a much more balanced and effective offense. Alex Smith doesn't turn the ball over, Frank Gore is still fresh and the 49ers have a deeper set of wideouts and a star tight end, Vernon Davis. They can take advantage of a Jets squad that is now missing its best player, cornerback Darrelle Revis. There's a huge drop from Revis to backup Kyle Wilson.
Member Plays

Matchup: Miami at Arizona
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Miami (+6 -110)
Line Source: Peppermill
Posted on: September 28, 2012 @ 9:43:39 AM EDT


Considering the lack of offense on both sides, taking this many points is huge.

The Cardinals' defense is playing well, but their offense has put up more than 23 points only once during the past 12 games. Aside from Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals have no playmakers on offense and Kevin Kolb never has taken full advantage of Fitzgerald's considerable skills.

Miami ranks No. 3 in run defense giving up less than 2.5 yards per run. The Cardinals are 26th in rushing and their backfield depth took a hit with the loss of Beanie Wells. Arizona ranks 29th in passing yards and 31st in total offense. It's easy to knock rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but Miami averages more than 100 yards per game than Arizona does. It's a big plus that Reggie Bush appears ready to play. He's the Dolphins' best weapon and is off to his finest start.

The Cardinals have the best record in the NFL during the last 12 regular-season games going 10-2. But Miami has covered five of its last six road games and is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing a foe with a winning record.

The Cardinals are on a nice roll, but the oddsmaker has caught up to them. This has all the makings of a play-for-field-position type of game that is decided by a field goal at the end.
Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: New England at Buffalo
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: New England (-4 -115)
Line Source: BetOnline.ag
Posted on: September 27, 2012 @ 6:05:30 AM EDT

The Patriots haven't dropped three in a row since 2002 and that streak isn't going to end against Buffalo.

The Patriots have a losing record, but they very well could be unbeaten having been victimized in two games by replacement referees.

New England's improved defense can handle Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns during his last 13 games, and the Bills' backup running backs as it's doubtful if Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller will be able to play.

The Bills aren't going to be able to keep up with the Patriots' high-powered attack that has overcome the loss of Aaron Hernandez by the improved running of Stevan Ridley, resurrecting Wes Welker and getting Brandon Lloyd comfortable in the offense. Then there's Rob Gronkowski, who has scored 24 touchdowns in the last 25 games.

The Patriots have owned the Bills beating the 16 of the last 17 times covering 12 of the 17 matchups.

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Fezzik
Carolina +7.5 2u
Chi/Dallas Under 43 3u
Oak Den over 47 2u
Redskins tampa Under 48.5 3u
Kansas +1 2u
Was +3 2u
Teaser GB -1 with Rams +8.5 1U
Teaser GB -1 with Jaxs +8.5 1U

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Hamels is 5-0, 2.87 in his last nine starts. Eovaldi is 0-0, 1.29 in his last two outings.
-- Atlanta won Medlen's last 22 starts (9-0, 1.16 in 11 starts this year).
-- Cueto is 2-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts. WRodriguez is 4-0, 3.28 in his last six outings.
-- Lynn is 3-0, 0.93 in his last three starts.
-- Lincecum is 5-0, 2.61 in his last five road starts. Volquez is 2-1, 3.44 in his last three outings.
-- Collmenter is 4-0, 3.41 in his last five starts.

-- Hughes is 3-1, 3.96 in his last four starts.
-- Price is 3-0, 2.70 in his last four starts.
-- Greinke is 5-0, 1.62 in his last seven starts. Darvish is 4-0, 1.70 in his last five outings. ESantana is 2-1, 2.36 in his last four starts. Holland is 2-0, 2.81 in his last five starts.
-- Milone is 2-0, 3.52 in his last four starts. ERamirez has a 2.84 RA in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Mejia is 1-1, 5.63 in two starts this season.
-- Lyles is 1-2, 5.70 in his last five starts. Fiers is 0-2, 8.03 in his last three.
-- Detwiler is 1-1, 4.91 in his last four starts.
-- De La Rosa is 0-1, 13.50 in two starts this season. Beckett is 0-2, 4.01 in his last four starts.
-- Rusin is 0-1, 11.42 in his last couple starts.

-- Alvarez is 2-3, 4.65 in his last five starts.
-- ZStewart allowed 15 runs in 8.2 IP in his last two starts. Saunders is 0-2, 3.54 in his last three starts.
-- Quintana is 0-1, 7.45 in his last three starts; he left his last start in the first inning due to injury/illness.
-- ASanchez is 2-2, 3.49 in his last four starts. Hendriks is 1-1, 6.92 in his last five starts.
-- Hochevar is 1-3, 8.89 in his last five starts. McAllister is 0-4, 6.91 in his last six starts.

Hot Teams
-- Cincinnati won eight of its last eleven games.
-- Atlanta won 10 of its last 13 games. Mets won six of their last eight.
-- Cardinals won nine of their last 12 games.
-- Astros are 4-4 in their last eight games.
-- Arizona won five of its last six home games.
-- Padres won 10 of last 14 at home. Giants won 13 of last 16 overall.
-- Dodgers won five of their last six games; Colorado won four of six. .

-- Bronx won 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Orioles won ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Indians won four of their last six games.
-- Angels won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Detroit won five of its last six games.
-- Tampa Bay won nine of its last ten games.
-- A's won 14 of their last 19 home games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost 15 of their last 21 games.
-- Marlins lost nine of their last 11 games. Phillies lost five of last seven.
-- Brewers lost five of their last eight games.
-- Nationals lost five of their last eight road games.
-- Cubs lost ten of their last eleven games.

-- Blue Jays lost 13 of their last 19 games.
-- Red Sox lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Royals lost six of their last seven games.
-- Minnesota lost six of its last eight home games.
-- Rangers lost three of their last four games.
-- White Sox lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Mariners are 4-11 in their last fifrteen games.

Totals
-- 14 of last 18 Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in Miami's last ten games.
-- Under is 16-6-2 in Atlanta's last 24 games.
-- Over is 19-9-1 in last 29 Milwaukee games.
-- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight Washington games.
-- Six of Cubs' last seven games went over total.
-- Eight of last eleven Giant games went over the total.
-- 15 of last 20 Colorado games went over the total.

-- Over is 4-2-2 in last eight Bronx games.
-- Five of last seven Boston games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Kansas City games went over total.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels' last four games.
-- Ten of last fourteen Detroit games went over the total.
-- Eight of last twelve White Sox games stayed under total.
-- Over is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Oakland games.

Umpires
-- Cin-Pitt-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Carlson games.
-- Hst-Mil-- Underdogs are 9-4 in last thirteen West games.
-- NY-Atl-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Demuth games.
-- Phil-Mia-- Six of last eight Scott games went over the total.
-- Wsh-StL-- Road team won nine of last ten Guccione games, with last four going over the total.
-- Chi-Az-- Six of last seven Bellino games stayed under total.
-- SF-SD-- Nine of last eleven Cederstrom games stayed under.
-- Col-LA-- Last seven Carapazza games stayed under.

-- NY-Tor-- Favorites won last five Diaz games.
-- Det-Min-- Road team won eight of last ten Wolf games.
-- Sea-A's-- Eight of last nine Kellogg games stayed under.
-- Bos-Blt-- Home side won eight of last nine Cuzzi games.
-- KC-Cle-- Tumpane is a rookie ump; not enough data on him.
-- TB-Chi-- Visiting team won five of last six Hallion games.
-- LA-Tex-- 17 of last 21 Joyce games went over the total. Underdogs won six of last nine Hoye games.

[poopoo333]

Today's MLB Picks

Washington at St. Louis

The Nationals look to follow up yesterday's 6-4 extra-inning win and take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 1-6 in Lance Lynn's last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Washington is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.128; Miami (Eovaldi) 14.001 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-145); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-145); Under

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Mejia) 15.479; Atlanta (Medlen) 16.206 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-300); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-300); Over

Game 905-906: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.469; Pittsburgh (Rodriguez) 14.208 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-145); Under

Game 907-908: Houston at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Lyles) 14.071; Milwaukee (Fiers) 15.329 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-250); 8 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-250); Over

Game 909-910: Washington at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Detwiler) 16.194; St. Louis (Lynn) 15.649 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115); Over

Game 911-912: San Francisco at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.010; San Diego (Volquez) 16.190 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7 Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under

Game 913-914: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.663; LA Dodgers (Beckett) 15.289 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-245); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+205); Over

Game 915-916: Chicago Cubs at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Rusin) 12.672; Arizona (Collmenter) 15.990 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Arizona (-200); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-200); Under

Game 917-918: Kansas City at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.765; Cleveland (McAllister) 15.084 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-125); Over

Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.765; Toronto (Alvarez) 15.052 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 9 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-200); Under

Game 921-922: Boston at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Stewart) 15.034; Baltimore (Saunders) 14.635 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 923-924: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.193; White Sox (Quintana) 15.582 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+130); Under

Game 925-926: Detroit at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 15.294; Minnesota (Hendriks) 14.568 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 9 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170); Over

Game 927-928: LA Angels at Texas (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Greinke) 14.801; Texas (Darvish) 15.862 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Under

Game 929-930: Seattle at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Ramirez) 16.106; Oakland (Milone) 15.543 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-180); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+160); Over

Game 931-932: LA Angels at Texas (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.365; Texas (Holland) 16.533 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

[poopoo333]

Today's NFL Picks

Oakland at Denver

The Broncos look to take advantage of an Oakland team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games in Week 4. Denver is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 30 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (9/26)

Game 205-206: New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.358; Buffalo 135.662 Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: New England by 4; 52 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4); Under

Game 207-208: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.259; Detroit 133.529 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 8 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3); Under

Game 209-210: Carolina at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 132.952; Atlanta 138.196 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 53 Vegas Line: Atlanta by 7; 49 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+7); Over

Game 211-212: San Francisco at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.218; NY Jets 128.471 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 36 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4; 40 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4); Under

Game 213-214: San Diego at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.591; Kansas City 133.033 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1; 45 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-1); Over

Game 215-216: Tennessee at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 128.839; Houston 139.085 Dunkel Line: Houston by 10; 42 Vegas Line: Houston by 12 1/2; 45 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+12 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Seattle at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 128.172; St. Louis 128.082 Dunkel Line: Even; 41 Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 38 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 219-220: Miami at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 131.864; Arizona 130.611 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 43 Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 39 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+6 1/2); Over

Game 221-222: Oakland at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.414; Denver 134.878 Dunkel Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Denver by 6 1/2; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2); Under

Game 223-224: Cincinnati at Jacksonville (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.605; Jacksonville 126.859 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 38 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1; 42 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1); Under

Game 225-226: New Orleans at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 127.610; Green Bay 141.775 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 57 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 54 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7 1/2); Over

Game 227-228: Washington at Tampa Bay (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 127.686; Tampa Bay 132.524 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 5; 50 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 47 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over

Game 229-230: NY Giants at Philadelphia (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 137.563; Philadelphia 136.390 Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 42 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Under