Tweet
Robert Ferringo
3.5-Unit Play. Take #222 Denver (-6.5) over Oakland (4 p.m.)
Sometimes, you just gotta believe. And right now I just believe that Denver is a much better team than its 1-2 record suggests. This team beat Pittsburgh, then they lost on the road to Atlanta, and then they lost at home to Houston. Essentially, they have played three games against three of the 10 best teams in football. I don't fault them for that. And the reality is that they have let a lot of chances slip through their fingers over the past two weeks. Peyton Manning is not a quarterback that sits under .500. The Raiders, however, are proven losers that are used to being in the basement. Oakland's win as an underdog last week was a total fluke. They were getting beaten but then caught some Incredible Hulk strength in the fourth quarter and came from behind. That was an emotional game and I don't know what they have left in the tank. The Raiders laid an egg in their trip to Miami and this is a much more difficult venue to get a win. I think Oakland is in a letdown spot, I think the Denver is desperate, and if you give me Peyton Manning and John Fox over Carson Palmer and Some Dude for less than a touchdown I will take it every time.
3-Unit Play. Take #205 New England (-4) over Buffalo (1 p.m.)
I just don't see the Patriots at 1-3 and I think it will take an outright winner for Buffalo to cover this number. The Patriots are desperate and they won't be taking this game lightly at all. I am not buying into Buffalo. They have played a cupcake schedule to this point and have not been nearly as impressive as their 2-1 record might suggest. (New England, by contrast, has played a much tougher slate and probably should be 3-0 right now.) The Bills don't rush the passer and their back seven is pathetic in coverage. That should allow Tom Brady and the Patriots weapons to have a big day. On the other side, Buffalo's offense has been centered around explosive C.J. Spiller, but he won't be anything more than a role player this week due to injury. The Patriots are 16-1 in their last 17 games against the Bills and even that loss - last year in Buffalo - was a fluke game with a huge Buffalo comeback. History and skill are both on our side here. Bill Belichick has been amazing ATS off a loss and on the road. I think New England gets the job done this time around.
2-Unit Play. Take #211 San Francisco (-4) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m.)
The Niners admitted last week that they weren't ready to play and weren't ready for the early start in Minnesota. Oh, I think they will be ready this week. The Jets suck. This team is terrible. Their blowout win over mediocre Buffalo was a fluke. New York was manhandled by Pittsburgh and then they lucked out a win against an equally pathetic Miami team last week. There is literally nothing past its offensive line that I like about the Jets. San Francisco is well coached, is more experienced, and I think will be more focused in this game. This spread jumped from 3.0 to 4.0 and it is still climbing. You know the books don't like to come off key numbers so that is a red flag to me that the sharps are hammering the Niners to win this game. I look for another vintage Mark Sanchez meltdown and I like San Francisco to get at least one win out of its two-game road trip.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #214 Kansas City (-1) over San Diego (1 p.m.)
Despite the fact that over 77 percent of the action on this game is coming down on the Chargers this line has taken a massive swing to Kansas City's side. The Chiefs are not a good team and they have one of the worst coaches in football. But guess what: the same can be said for San Diego! I am not impressed with the Chargers and I think that they are paper tigers. They should be 1-2 right now with a lone win over pathetic Tennessee. The Chiefs were able to gut out a win on the road in New Orleans last week and I think that momentum could carry over. Kansas City actually has the No. 1 total offense in football. They shot themselves in the foot against Atlanta (who is excellent) and at Buffalo (who is OK at home). But I think that the line movement on this game is a big red flag and I still think San Diego is overrated. The Chiefs are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against the Chargers and I think they will take a high scoring affair.
2-Unit Play. Take #216 Houston (-12) over Tennessee (1 p.m.)
Tennessee's win last week over Detroit was one of the luckiest, flukiest wins I have ever seen. They scored two kickoff returns for touchdowns, had a defensive TD, and then had two TD passes over 60 yards. That is the epitome of garbage. Now they are on the road against the best team in football. The Titans were pathetic against New England and on the road at San Diego and I still contend that Jake Locker is not an NFL quarterback. Chris Johnson is running like a little girl (he is terrified of contact) and the Houston defense has been laying waste to people. The Texans realize that they have a chance to put some distance between themselves and perhaps their main AFC South ?rival?. I do not think that they will hold back. When the Titans have lost this year, they have gotten flattened. I think that is exactly what is going to happen here.
2-Unit Play. Take #228 Tampa Bay (-2.5) over Washington (4 p.m.)
Tampa Bay is another team that I think is better than its 1-2 record suggests. They really should've beaten the Giants in New York. They were also screwed by the replacement refs last week in Dallas when a fumble return for a TD was brought back because the refs botched the initial call. So Tampa Bay has played three tough teams so far this season and has held itself up well. Now they are back at home against a Washington team that has done nothing besides fluke out a win against a bad New Orleans team. The Redskins can't stop anyone. At all. And I think that Tampa Bay's offense will be much more efficient at home. The Bucs have been the No. 1 team in football against the run and I am still not convinced that the Redskins can beat anyone with Robert Griffin throwing the ball 35 times in a game. Griffin looks good. But his hype is driving Redskins lines. This is still a loser team and I think they will get smothered by an undervalued Tampa Bay club this week.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #207 Minnesota (+5) over Detroit (1 p.m.)
I have said it 1,000 times: you win in the NFL by running the ball and playing good defense, and the more physical team is going to win more times than not. I know everyone falls in love with the passing numbers and with patty-cake football. But toughness still wins in the NFL. And there is no doubt that the Vikings are the tougher team here. Detroit has an injured quarterback and I think that they are on the verge of the collapse that I predicted at the start of the season. They can't guard anyone in the secondary and I think the Vikings are just going to pound, pound, pound the Lions into submission. If you double-team Calvin Johnson this Lions offense really starts to sputter. I will continue to bet against this Detroit team - which is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games - until the market catches up and realizes that they still have a long way to go.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #220 Arizona (-5.5) over Miami (4 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #226 Green Bay (-7.5) over New Orleans (4:20 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #230 Philadelphia (-1) over N.Y. Giants (8 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #216 Houston (-5) over Tennessee (1 p.m.) AND Take #226 Green Bay (-0.5) over New Orleans (4:20 p.m.)
This Week's Totals:
2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 54.0 New Orleans at Green Bay (4 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 48.5 Carolina at Atlanta (1 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 38.0 Seattle at St. Louis (1 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 47.5 N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (8 p.m.)
3.5-Unit Play. Take #222 Denver (-6.5) over Oakland (4 p.m.)
Sometimes, you just gotta believe. And right now I just believe that Denver is a much better team than its 1-2 record suggests. This team beat Pittsburgh, then they lost on the road to Atlanta, and then they lost at home to Houston. Essentially, they have played three games against three of the 10 best teams in football. I don't fault them for that. And the reality is that they have let a lot of chances slip through their fingers over the past two weeks. Peyton Manning is not a quarterback that sits under .500. The Raiders, however, are proven losers that are used to being in the basement. Oakland's win as an underdog last week was a total fluke. They were getting beaten but then caught some Incredible Hulk strength in the fourth quarter and came from behind. That was an emotional game and I don't know what they have left in the tank. The Raiders laid an egg in their trip to Miami and this is a much more difficult venue to get a win. I think Oakland is in a letdown spot, I think the Denver is desperate, and if you give me Peyton Manning and John Fox over Carson Palmer and Some Dude for less than a touchdown I will take it every time.
3-Unit Play. Take #205 New England (-4) over Buffalo (1 p.m.)
I just don't see the Patriots at 1-3 and I think it will take an outright winner for Buffalo to cover this number. The Patriots are desperate and they won't be taking this game lightly at all. I am not buying into Buffalo. They have played a cupcake schedule to this point and have not been nearly as impressive as their 2-1 record might suggest. (New England, by contrast, has played a much tougher slate and probably should be 3-0 right now.) The Bills don't rush the passer and their back seven is pathetic in coverage. That should allow Tom Brady and the Patriots weapons to have a big day. On the other side, Buffalo's offense has been centered around explosive C.J. Spiller, but he won't be anything more than a role player this week due to injury. The Patriots are 16-1 in their last 17 games against the Bills and even that loss - last year in Buffalo - was a fluke game with a huge Buffalo comeback. History and skill are both on our side here. Bill Belichick has been amazing ATS off a loss and on the road. I think New England gets the job done this time around.
2-Unit Play. Take #211 San Francisco (-4) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m.)
The Niners admitted last week that they weren't ready to play and weren't ready for the early start in Minnesota. Oh, I think they will be ready this week. The Jets suck. This team is terrible. Their blowout win over mediocre Buffalo was a fluke. New York was manhandled by Pittsburgh and then they lucked out a win against an equally pathetic Miami team last week. There is literally nothing past its offensive line that I like about the Jets. San Francisco is well coached, is more experienced, and I think will be more focused in this game. This spread jumped from 3.0 to 4.0 and it is still climbing. You know the books don't like to come off key numbers so that is a red flag to me that the sharps are hammering the Niners to win this game. I look for another vintage Mark Sanchez meltdown and I like San Francisco to get at least one win out of its two-game road trip.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #214 Kansas City (-1) over San Diego (1 p.m.)
Despite the fact that over 77 percent of the action on this game is coming down on the Chargers this line has taken a massive swing to Kansas City's side. The Chiefs are not a good team and they have one of the worst coaches in football. But guess what: the same can be said for San Diego! I am not impressed with the Chargers and I think that they are paper tigers. They should be 1-2 right now with a lone win over pathetic Tennessee. The Chiefs were able to gut out a win on the road in New Orleans last week and I think that momentum could carry over. Kansas City actually has the No. 1 total offense in football. They shot themselves in the foot against Atlanta (who is excellent) and at Buffalo (who is OK at home). But I think that the line movement on this game is a big red flag and I still think San Diego is overrated. The Chiefs are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against the Chargers and I think they will take a high scoring affair.
2-Unit Play. Take #216 Houston (-12) over Tennessee (1 p.m.)
Tennessee's win last week over Detroit was one of the luckiest, flukiest wins I have ever seen. They scored two kickoff returns for touchdowns, had a defensive TD, and then had two TD passes over 60 yards. That is the epitome of garbage. Now they are on the road against the best team in football. The Titans were pathetic against New England and on the road at San Diego and I still contend that Jake Locker is not an NFL quarterback. Chris Johnson is running like a little girl (he is terrified of contact) and the Houston defense has been laying waste to people. The Texans realize that they have a chance to put some distance between themselves and perhaps their main AFC South ?rival?. I do not think that they will hold back. When the Titans have lost this year, they have gotten flattened. I think that is exactly what is going to happen here.
2-Unit Play. Take #228 Tampa Bay (-2.5) over Washington (4 p.m.)
Tampa Bay is another team that I think is better than its 1-2 record suggests. They really should've beaten the Giants in New York. They were also screwed by the replacement refs last week in Dallas when a fumble return for a TD was brought back because the refs botched the initial call. So Tampa Bay has played three tough teams so far this season and has held itself up well. Now they are back at home against a Washington team that has done nothing besides fluke out a win against a bad New Orleans team. The Redskins can't stop anyone. At all. And I think that Tampa Bay's offense will be much more efficient at home. The Bucs have been the No. 1 team in football against the run and I am still not convinced that the Redskins can beat anyone with Robert Griffin throwing the ball 35 times in a game. Griffin looks good. But his hype is driving Redskins lines. This is still a loser team and I think they will get smothered by an undervalued Tampa Bay club this week.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #207 Minnesota (+5) over Detroit (1 p.m.)
I have said it 1,000 times: you win in the NFL by running the ball and playing good defense, and the more physical team is going to win more times than not. I know everyone falls in love with the passing numbers and with patty-cake football. But toughness still wins in the NFL. And there is no doubt that the Vikings are the tougher team here. Detroit has an injured quarterback and I think that they are on the verge of the collapse that I predicted at the start of the season. They can't guard anyone in the secondary and I think the Vikings are just going to pound, pound, pound the Lions into submission. If you double-team Calvin Johnson this Lions offense really starts to sputter. I will continue to bet against this Detroit team - which is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games - until the market catches up and realizes that they still have a long way to go.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #220 Arizona (-5.5) over Miami (4 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #226 Green Bay (-7.5) over New Orleans (4:20 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #230 Philadelphia (-1) over N.Y. Giants (8 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #216 Houston (-5) over Tennessee (1 p.m.) AND Take #226 Green Bay (-0.5) over New Orleans (4:20 p.m.)
This Week's Totals:
2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 54.0 New Orleans at Green Bay (4 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 48.5 Carolina at Atlanta (1 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 38.0 Seattle at St. Louis (1 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 47.5 N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (8 p.m.)
Comment