9-30-12

[Mr. IWS]

Lee Earnest 9/30 NFL

Take San Francisco 49ers -4 over NY Jets. 1 Unit 1:00pm EST

The 49ers threw up a stinker last week against Minnesota and this line is a reflection of that. The truth is the 49ers are as good as they have been built up by the media to be. Every team comes out and has a bad game from time to time, the difference between a good team and a team that is completely built on hype is how they respond after the loss. Losing will do one of two things to a team, it will force a team to re-evaluate what they did wrong in that game, make corrections and give them that "killer instinct" that they had apparently lost in that game, they would come out more focused and show that they can rebound from that loss and come back stronger. The second option would be to unravel the team and expose them. I think the latter happens. For weeks, even extending back to last season, everyone was talking about how tough this San Francisco team is, from their defense to the play of QB Alex Smith, to the many play-makers that they have. This is a playoff team, no doubt about it and it will show today. The Jets are banged up and are not as good as advertised. Mark Sanchez still has not developed into an NFL caliber QB no matter how much people want to claim he is improving....he is not. He still makes poor decisions and seems nervous in the pocket. The SF defense is going to shake Sanchez and force him into some throws that he should not be making. This is the best defense the Jets will face this season. Also the Jets defense will be without CB Darelle Revis. The holes in the Jets defense should allow Alex Smith to get the passing game going. San Francisco makes a statement today. Lay the points


Take Cincinnati Bengals -1 over Jacksonville Jaguars1 Unit4:05pm EST

Jacksonville continues to struggle under the arm of Blaine Gabbert. Maurice Jones Drew seems to be the only play-maker that this team has. Cincinnati has shown its vulnerability to the run this season, however in my opinion they have the most play-makers in place. Andy Dalton continues to grow into his role and has been consistent in his play. WR AJ Green continues to be his favorite target and Green has the capability to change the game in a moments notice. Benjarvis Green Ellis has been a welcome addition to the backfield and is a hard nosed north-south runner. When it all comes down to it the only edge Jacksonville has is the fact that it is playing in Jax. Last year Cincinnati came into Jacksonville Stadium and beat the Jags 30-20. With another year under their belt I expect to see a similar score.


Take NY Giants +2 over Philadelphia Eagles 1 Unit 8:30pm EST

The Giants continue to play great football while the Eagles are not. This is a division rivalry game and taking the points here is the best idea. Eli Manning continues to develop and shows that he is not the only Manning that can play football. What has impressed me is that Eli has been doing this without any of his top receivers being at 100%. Michael Vick had a great season last year and his comeback to football makes a great story, but I feel he is overrated as a QB. This Giants pass rush is one of the best in the league and we have already seen other defenses get shots on Vick this season. Vick has been having trouble with his control and has turned the ball over more times than he has touchdown passes. Vick is only completing around 50% of his passes this season. That is not going to cut it against the Giants. If Eli continues his amazing play the Giants should win this game outright.

[Mr. IWS]

OC Dooley:

“1 UNIT” LATE DAY NFL SYSTEM (Redskins +2 at Bucs in a 4:25 eastern kickoff): Due to their intense rookie head coach who has received criticism for being too aggressive when opponents line up in “victory” formation, host Tampa Bay enters today’s contest undefeated (3-0 ATS) where it counts. But not only are the Buccaneers being asked by the oddsmakers to lay points this afternoon, they are seemingly facing the wrong opponent. There was much excitement last Sunday when the Redskins played their regular season home opener officially unveiling heavy-hyped quarterback Robert Griffin III in front of the faithful fans. But a long term pattern held up as Washington ended up losing outright at home for a SEVENTH consecutive time. Thus one can argue that this team is actually better off playing on the road where late today a banged-up defense that has yielded a whopping 442 yards per game seemingly will be catching a break. That Redskins stop-unit goes up against a Bucs attack which is averaging a league LOW 258 yards per contest. Quarterback Josh Freeman has the worst completion percentage (51.3) in the entire NFL. My research indicates that the Redskins have COVERED NINE IN A ROW when up against an excellent rush defense who allowed on average less than 71 ground yards per game. Here is a whopping “22-4” SYSTEM (85% the past decade with a money line between +3/-3) which plays ON road teams like Washington with a terrible defense yielding at least 360 totals yards per contest, after permitting at least 400 total yards in three consecutive contests

[Mr. IWS]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

Miami Dolphins+4.5

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock

8 Houston
7 New England
7 Washington

[Mr. IWS]

kelso 100 det 50 denver 25 atl sf sd no

[Mr. IWS]

VR

3* Eagles moneyline
3* 2 team 7 point teaser Jets and PAckers
2* Under A's Mariners

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass

100 7 point teaser St. Louis and UNDER-he say to be sure you get 10.
100 Carolina
100 KC
100 Washington-Buy to 3
200 Miami
200 Philadelphia
500 Detroit(Private Play)

100 on UNDER Mets

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy's Picks For Major League Baseball

4-Unit Play. #914. Take LA Dodgers Run-Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies (Sunday @ 4:10pm est).

I normally don't do run-line selections but we can bear this one out. The Dodgers are 2 games back of the Cardinals who lost yesterday to the Nationals. With Matt Kemp coming on late in the year after disappearing for a couple weeks and with about 4 games remaining (with a series against rival San Fran to close the year and as the Cardinals close out against their respective rival in the Reds), it should be a great finish. Beckett remembers his last start against the Rockies which was his first in a Dodger uniform and it was a tough 0-10 loss at Coors. Plus, his last start in general was solid but his offense didn't produce as he fell short 1-2. This is a revenge spot for Beckett but against the Rockies and a bounce-back in general. Combine that with De La Rosa having a 0-6 record with a 5.98era lifetime against the Dodgers, this makes a good spot for the Dodgers to win this game by the run-line. A bit of a worry here as the Rockies look to avoid the sweep, but having said that, the Dodgers have outscored Colorado 11-0 in the last 2 games and given the importance of this game for the Dodgers, we'll roll with the run-line here.



Indian Cowboy's Picks For WNBA

4-Unit Play. #666. Take Under 147 Minnesota vs. Seattle (Sunday @ 9pm est).

Minnesota looks to sweep Seattle here and given the history of Seattle in Seattle at that, look for this game to be highly competitive against the defending champs. In a way, this ends up being a passing of the torch of sorts from the past Storm teams which were filled with Championships with Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird to the current Ly*x teams which will be good for a very long time to come with Maya Moore and company. Seattle will look to make this into a half-court game like the last time they beat Minnesota as they were one of the first teams to beat Minnesota in a drag out half-court type of game. I look for this to be a decent public fade as there is a reason why this total was not set any higher than this amount and not into the 150's as this is likely to be a high scoring game to start but the defensive intensity should pick up as the game goes on. The Under is 5-2 for the Ly*x in their last 7 road games and the Under is 4-1-2 for the Storm in their last 7 Conference Semifinal games.



Indian Cowboy's Daily Comp Pick

COMP (NFL):
Philadelphia Eagles -1 over New York Giants (8:30PM EDT)

[Mr. IWS]

Youngstown Connection
Patriots -3

49ers -4

2 Team Teaser
Atlanta / Green Bay

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo's Picks For Major League Baseball

1.5-Unit Play. Take #904 Atlanta (-1.5, -145) over N.Y. Mets (1:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)

1-Unit Play. Take #922 Baltimore (-1.5, +110) over Boston (1:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)


Today's Totals
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 Detroit at Minnesota (2 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 7.5 Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox (2 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)

0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.5 Chicago Cubs at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)


1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.5 L.A. Angels at Texas (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)
2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 10.0 L.A. Angels at Texas (7 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 30)
Note: This is a doubleheader chase. That means that you bet the first game. If we win, then you don't bet the second game. If we lose the first total then you go ahead and bet the second.

***I will say this though: if we win the first game. Go ahead and play the second game for 1.5-Units. Either way, we want to bet Game 2 in this scenario, whether as part of the chase or on its own.

So the scenarios are:

1. Lose Game 1, play Game 2 for 2.5 Units.

Or

2. Win Game 1, play Game 2 for 1.5 Units.***

If you are unsure how to play this or are confused at all then don't play either game. There is plenty of other action on the board.

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsboss....lions 4 sta

[Mr. IWS]

veno has sf, den, jax over, gb over**

[Mr. IWS]

5-STAR Cincinnati over PITTSBURGH - This is Johnny Cueto's final regular season start of 2012 while gearing up for the postseason. If you don't think this one shot at winning 20 games, with a potential CY Young still on the line, you are crazy. As such look for his Reds teammates to go all out to try to get that for Cueto here.

Pittsburgh staved off 82 losses for one day yesterday, winning 2-1. The Pirates are 4-20 since May 22, 2011 as a dog after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1465 when playing against. Meanwhile, the Reds are 8-1 since May 06, 2012 as a favorite after a one run loss in a night game for a net profit of $675.
Six walks came back to haunt Cincinnati in that game. The Reds are 6-0 since May 06, 2012 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks and it is not the first game of a series in a night game for a net profit of $643.
Pittsburgh meanwhile, stranded 18 Cincy runners on base individually in the game. The Pirates are 1-8 since April 16, 2012 as a dog after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $665 when playing against.
This is a day start, and Cueto has thrived in these this season. The Reds are 7-0 since April 22, 2012 when Johnny Cueto starts on the road when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $760.
Cueto has been strong in each of his last two starts, both Cincinnati wins. The Reds are 6-0 since May 04, 2012 when Johnny Cueto starts as a favorite after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $600.
The last was over the Brewers at home as he allowed two runs over seven innings. The Reds are 6-0 since April 11, 2012 when Johnny Cueto starts as a favorite after a quality start at home for a net profit of $600.
This Pirates team was destined for a losing record and today is the perfect day for that to happen. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Cincinnati 5, PITTSBURGH 2

[Mr. IWS]

red suit

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atl/car over 48

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Hurley

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NFL Parlay of the Month
-Panthers (+7) over Falcons

Game is being played inside a dome.

-Rams (+3) over Seahawks
1:00 PM -- Edward Jones Dome