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Insider Sports Report
5* Missouri -7
3* Tulsa/Marshall over 70
3* Miami +14
3* UCLA -2.5
5* Missouri -7
3* Tulsa/Marshall over 70
3* Miami +14
3* UCLA -2.5
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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Saturday 10/6
4* Best Bet = OREGON
3* = KANSAS STATE
3* = NORTH CAROLINA
2* = No. Illinois
2* = No. TexasComment
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Robert Ferringo
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #313 Navy (+8) over Air Force (11:30 a.m., Saturday, Oct. 6)
Whoa. That's all I thought when I saw this line. This is still a big rivalry game, is it not? This is a lot of points in a series that has seen the underdog go 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Most of the games between these two teams have been close, down-to-the wire events, including last season's overtime win by Air Force. This series has only been decided by more than eight points one time in the last nine years, and even that was just an 11-point advantage for Navy. The average margin of victory over the last nine years is just five points per game. I flat out think that Navy is the better team in this game. They have played a brutal schedule to this point. They started the season with Notre Dame, who is in the Top 10 now, they went on the road to Penn State (who may be in the Top 25 after this week), and they also lost to San Jose State, which is one of the best mid-major teams in the nation. They are a bit undervalued at the moment because their record doesn't really reflect their competition. Air Force has played three really bad teams (Idaho State, UNLV and Colorado State) and they caught Michigan in a letdown spot in their one solid game of the season. Air Force is coming off an in-state rivalry game in which they probably shouldn't have ended up covering the spread (last week against lowly Colorado State, whom they only outgained by 75 yards). The public is, stunningly, piling on the home Falcons, with over 80 percent of the bets coming in on Air Force. However, the line is dropping the other way. I will take the points here and if you are daring you might want to think about that moneyline. I think that Navy wins this one outright.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #385 UNLV (+27) over Louisiana Tech (7 p.m. Saturday, Oct. 6)
Who is betting the Rebels this week? No one. Absolutely no one is on UNLV this week. And that is why I like them. Over 80 percent of the action is coming in on the Bulldogs. And for good reason. They are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS and they are rolling. However, I think this may be a little bit of a letdown spot for them. Tech is coming off back-to-back wins over BCS teams (at Illinois and at Virginia) and they have another BCS team, Texas A&M, on deck. In between they are a four-touchdown favorite over a weaker team that they should hammer. They are a big public favorite against a team tha I think might be a little better than its record. The Rebels went toe-to-toe with BCS foes Minnesota (who is better than Illinois right now) and Washington State (not far off UVA). They beat Air Force but lost to a very tough Utah State club. But UNLV should've snuck in the back door last week, losing against the number because of a safety late in the fourth quarter. I think that they find a way to hang around in this one. Tech only beat Rice by 19 at home and only beat a bad Houston team by 7 this year. This is a good spot for the puppy.
2-Unit Play. Take #332 Penn State (-2.5) over Northwestern (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 6)
I'm starting to get the feeling that this Penn State team is a bit better than I thought. Everyone in the country wants to bet against the Nittany Lions because they are seen as the villain from the Sandusky-Paterno scandal. However, this team was able to hold onto most of its players and this team is playing with a focus and determination that is suiting them well. Perhaps most importantly, their offense has looked sharp. They have averaged over 30 points per game the last three weeks and hung 35 on Illinois with ease last week. I think that they will fill up this pathetic Northwestern defense, which is one of the worst in the country. Northwestern has won and covered five straight games. They have entered the Top 25 but that is kind of ridiculous. The Wildcats haven't played anyone decent (their best win came against Vanderbilt) and they have played four straight games at home. Now they are back on the road and we have a Top 25 team that is an underdog on the road. That is a red flag to me. I think Penn State gets an emotional win in this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #344 Mississippi (+12.5) over Texas A&M (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 6)
Whoa. People might be getting a little carried away with the Aggies, no? They have been much better than to be expected. But have they done enough to warrant being nearly a two-touchdown favorite on the road against an SEC team? I don't think so. What's worse, they are taking in 73 percent of all the action in this game. I think the public is set up for a big letdown. A&M had a peak performance last week against a flaming wreck of an Arkansas team. And that's the key: A&M has played well against two SEC teams at home this year. They haven't wandered into the SEC wilderness yet. Ole Miss isn't going to be scared of A&M. They have faced Texas and Alabama in two of the last three games. And I think they have played a little better than the final scores of those games suggest. Further, A&M isn't at that caliber. At least not yet. I love A&M's coach and their direction. But this is still a young team coming off a big revenge blowout and three straight wins by 45 or more points against really overmatched foes. We don't know how good this Aggies team is just yet. But I am willing to bet they aren't going to blow out another nearly equal SEC team on the road in this spot.
2-Unit Play. Take #338 N.C. State (+16) over Florida State (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 6)
Hey, I like Florida State. This is a really, really talented team. But isn't this the type of game that they have been losing over the last 15 years? Expectations are sky-high for this group but I'm still not sure what is hype and what is real about them. Their ?big? win over Clemson at home wasn't all that impressive to me since A) they were at home, B) the Noles were down 14 in the second half of that game, and C) they didn't cover the spread. N.C. State has revenge for a shutout loss last year in Tallahassee and they are an outstanding 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. Prior to last year's blowout these two teams had played a bunch of close games over the past decade, with the average margin of victory at just 7.2 points. Tom O'Brien has always been a very good underdog coach and I think that he can get the job done here. Over 72 percent of all bets in this game are coming down on Florida State. But until they prove otherwise I still think that they are overrated. They are leaving Florida for the first time all year and we'll see if they are at all worthy of their Top 5 ranking.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #335 Connecticut (+7.5) over Rutgers (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 6)
I think that these teams are just too similar for this spread to be this large. But Rutgers is 4-0, off a bye, and off wins at Arkansas and South Florida. So they have to be a strong favorite. But the Huskies have played a tough schedule and their last four games have all been decided by a touchdown or less. These are two grinding defensive teams. Neither has much offensive pop and they both do the same things well. Connecticut hammered Rutgers by 18 last year and is probably a better team this fall. Prior to that the previous three meetings were decided by 3, 4 and 2 points, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Connecticut is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. I look for this one to be another typical Big East slugfest.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #353 Iowa State (+10) over TCU (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 6)
I just don't think that TCU is that good. I don't. There is no way that they should've covered against Virginia. They only beat Kansas and SMU, two pretty bad teams, by 14 and 8, respectively. They are overrated. Iowa State is a feisty team. They run the ball and play good defense and they are coming off a disappointing performance last week against Texas Tech. I think that primes them for a bounce back. Further, TCU quarterback Casey Paschall was arrested for a DWI last night at 1 a.m. He is suspended for this game and that could hurt an already shaky Horned Frogs offense. It will also impact the spread on this game, and I would play Iowa State all the way down to +8. TCU has a more appealing game against in-state foe Baylor next week (it is a revenge game from a thrilling loss last year) and they could be looking ahead in this situation. Iowa State is 4-0 ATS on the road and 5-2 ATS in conference play. I think they can hang around in this one.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #355 Illinois (+14.5) over Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 6)
I know that I am a glutton for punishment here. But I'm going back to Illinois. They are garbage. But so is Wisconsin. And despite that, over 80 percent of the public is loading up on this shaky Badgers team. What has Wisconsin done to prove that they deserve to be this thick of a favorite? They are in a letdown situation after coughing up a lead at Nebraska in a marquee game. They barely held off Northern Iowa, UTEP and Utah State in Madison this year and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. None of this bodes well for the home team. I think Illinois is better than their record suggests. They have lost by 28 points in each of their last two games. But they have only been outgained by a total of 97 yards combined in those two outings! Turnovers have just crippled them. But turnovers are kind of fluky. And if the Illini can keep their heads out of their asses for just a little bit here I even think they could win this game outright. I am still not buying Wisconsin. So we will bet against the public and take the points with this ugly dog.
1-Unit Play. Take #347 Washington (+24.5) over Oregon (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 6)
Who wants to be holding a Washington ticket this week? No one. But this is a big rivalry game and I think that the Huskies can hang around. Oregon is 1-4 ATS so far this year. Despite their gaudy scoring numbers they aren't out ahead of the books. They only outgained their last two opponents by an average of about 115 yards per game and they only beat Fresno State by 17, Washington State by 25 an Arkansas State by 23. Surely the visitors are as good as any of those teams. Washington has already tangled with LSU and Stanford this year so they have faced Top 10 competition. They had extra time to prepare for this game and they have revenge in this rivalry for Oregon's kind of fluky 17-point win last year in the last game at Washington's old stadium. The public is all over Oregon at a 2-1 ratio. We'll try the other side.
1-Unit Play. Take #394 Ohio State (-3) over Nebraska (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)
I wrote an article about the top revenge games in college football for 2012 and this one made the short list. Ohio State was hammering Nebraska on the road last season before coughing up a double-digit lead in the second half. Now they get a shot at revenge and I think that they will absolutely get it. The Huskers are overrated. They have been the last two years and everyone - including myself - has been suckered in with this group. Taylor Martinez throws like a girl and he simply can't beat people with his arm. Ohio State's offense has been clicking and their defense showed last week, and against Central Florida, that it can hold up against physical offenses. Nebraska struggled with a mediocre Wisconsin team and lost to a pretty good UCLA team on the road this year. I think Ohio State, at The Shoe, is better than either of those clubs. Let's chalk this one up for the Buckeyes.
1-Unit Play. Take #407 UL-Monroe (-3) over Middle Tennessee State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 6)
This is the same MTSU team that lost to McNeese State, right? And they are playing against the same Monroe team that nearly pulled off a triple BCS sweep with wins against Arkansas, Auburn and Baylor, correct? Then I don't buy this number at all and I think that the Warhawks are the only play here. MTSU was on an 0-7 ATS streak before covering their last three games. This team is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games and they played the game of their lives against Georgia Tech last week in what was an obvious letdown/look ahead spot for the Yellow Jackets. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings and Monroe has been by far the more consistent team over the last two years. They should stay hot.
1-Unit Play. Take #358 Kansas State (-24) over Kansas (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 6)
I actually was expecting this spread to be over 30 points. Kansas State will be motivated to whitewash its in-state rival. And I just don't see them taking it easy on the Jayhawks. State won by 38 on the road last year and 52 on the road the year before. They certainly aren't worse this season. Kansas has already lost to feeble foes Rice and Northern Illinois. They are still completely rebuilding. This one is still a key game for recruiting and morale. And since Kansas State is coming off two weeks off they will have their overmatched opponents clearly in their sights. Kansas State already beat Miami by 39 at home and I think that they can do something similar to the Jayhawks here.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #364 Purdue (+10) over Michigan (4 p.m.) AND Take #390 Notre Dame (-7) over Miami (7:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #325 Georgia Tech (+17) over Clemson (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #365 Wyoming (+24) over Nevada (7 p.m.)Comment
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Indian Cowboy
4* #325. Over 74.5 Georgia Tech vs. Clemson (Saturday @ 3:30pm est).
4* #348. Oregon -24.5 over Washington (Saturday @ 10:30pm est).
4* #368. Idaho -10 over New Mexico State (Saturday @ 5pm est).
4* #373. Over 68 Central Michigan vs. Toledo (Saturday @ 3pm est).
5* #390. Notre Dame -14 over Miami (Saturday @ 7:30pm est).Comment
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WINNING POINTS
****BEST BET
NOTRE DAME over MIAMI-FLORIDA by 32 (Chicago)
Notre Dame finished 8-5 last year, the same as in 2010, Brian Kelly’s first season. But while it may have appeared that the Irish were stuck in neutral, the reality was that substantial gains were made on the defensive side of the football. ND held 12 of 13 opponents below their season scoring average and allowed only eight rush- ing touchdowns. This year, the “D” has been lights out. In their last two starts, the Irish held Michigan and Michigan State without a touchdown. In DL Stephon Tuitt, LB Manti Te’o, and DB Zeke Motta, the Irish boast an AA candidate in all three units. Miami has been erratic. The game with Georgia Tech was a classic example. The Hurricanes prevailed despite a run in which they allowed 36 unan- swered points. Last week, against NC State, the ‘Canes came within 19 seconds of playing yet another overtime. They avoided that circumstance with a long TD pass. Stephon Morris was outstanding, throwing for 566 yards, but a more telling statistic was that the game was tied although Miami had a plus-5 turnover advan- tage. That the Hurricanes have been an up-and-down team shouldn’t surprise us as they are one of America’s least experienced teams. Thirteen true freshmen saw the field at Georgia Tech. Only three seniors were listed as starters on the depth chart released for NC State. This game is at Soldier Field, but it goes without saying that most of those in attendance will be rooting for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has cultivated a strong following in the Windy City. Surveys show that only New York City has more residents that name Notre Dame as their favorite college team. Brian Kelly has been a winner at every stop and comes to this fray with the fresher and more disciplined team. NOTRE DAME 48-16.
*** BEST BET
BALL STATE* over NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 16
NIU was well-focused for last week’s game vs. Central Michigan. The Chippewas were coming off an upset of Iowa and were the only team to defeat NIU in a league game last year. When the smoke cleared, Dave Doeren’s revenge-minded crew advanced the school’s winning streak in home games to eighteen. Needless to say, NIU isn’t as dangerous outside Huskie Stadium, their so-called boneyard. The Huskies under Doeren are 4-2 SU in true road games with three of those wins coming by three points or less. The catalyst for NIU this year has been Jordan Lynch, a player described as a tailback playing quarterback with a linebacker’s men- tality. We think highly of Lynch, one of the country’s most exciting players, but he’s a notch behind predecessor Chandler Harnish and Ball State has a steadier hand in Keith Wenning who will be making his 28th straight start. Wenning plays behind an OL featuring four returning starters who entered the season with a combined 109 starts, one reason he has been sacked only 14 times in his last 17 games. He threw 5 TD passes without a pick last week on the road at Kent State, a narrow setback for the Cardinals. The Huskies have had difficulty stopping the run. Four players – Iowa’s Damon Bullock and a trio of Army Cadets – have run for 100-plus yards against the Huskies this year. BSU has an outstanding RB tandem in Jahwan Edwards and Horactio Banks. Although neither had an outstanding game last week, they are averaging 5.7 ypr, both individually and collectively, and will be a handful for the NIU defense. Second-year Ball State HC Pete Lembo fashioned 9- 3 seasons in the second year at each of his former stops, Elon and Lehigh, more fuel for the argument that the Cardinals are the right side. BALL STATE 44-28.
**PREFERRED
Northwestern over Penn State* by 10
After two discouraging losses to open the season, the Nittany Lions could have eas- ily folded their tent, but they ride into October on a 3-game winning streak. The linemakers are impressed, opening Penn State the favorite against a 5-0 team, but we think this is an overreaction. The three wins came against rebuilding Temple, declining Navy, and an Illinois team that ended last season on a 6-game losing streak and was 0-2 this year when stepping up in class – lopsided losses to Arizona State and Louisiana Tech. Our concerns about Penn State haven’t been tempered. An exodus of players has left the Nittany Lions largely bereft of offensive play- makers, and this from a team that ranked 95th in total offense LY. Matt McGloin has exceeded our expectations, but he’s not the guy that you want if your team is playing from behind. (Penn State has out-scored their opponents 49-0 in the first quarter.) It goes without saying that Northwestern has a lesser defense, but the sta- tistical gap isn’t all that wide and the well-coached Wildcats, averaging 33.8 points per game, have a weapon lacking in recent seasons in RB Venric Mark, the Big Ten leader in all-purpose yardage. NORTHWESTERN 30-20.
Stanford* over Arizona by 24
The 2011 Stanford squad sent four offensive players into the NFL as high draft picks. The inevitable drop-off manifested itself last Thursday night in Seattle when the Cardinal were held without an offensive touchdown by a team not noted for a strong defense. This week, we anticipate a rebound, for while Stanford is down this year, the Cardinal still has the muscle to overpower these Wildcats. Arizona entered Saturday’s match with Oregon State ranked first in the nation in first downs. That stat was misleading as 33 came in an overtime affair vs. Toledo and a preposterous 43 (the school record) came against hapless South Carolina State. In their most impressive win to date, a 59-38 conquest of Oklahoma State, Arizona surrendered 636 yards. Heading into the first season of the Rich Rodriguez era, Arizona didn’t have a single player with more than 13 career starts. Depth is a con- cern with 10 true freshmen currently listed on the two-deep. LB Jake Fisher, con- sidered the heart of the Arizona defense, has been on the field for almost every snap. Last week’s numbers suggest that the AU defense is already beginning to run out of juice. Stanford 45-21.
Texas Tech* over Oklahoma by 8
Oklahoma under Bob Stoops was 75-3 SU in Norman prior to last year’s visit from Texas Tech. In a shocker, the Red Raiders, a 28-point underdog, stormed to a 31- 7 lead and held on, prevailing 41-38 to shatter OU’s dreams of an undefeated sea- son. As a rule of thumb, we lean toward the would-be avenger in these types of sit- uations, especially if the team is coming off a bye, but in this particular instance we’re bullish on the home team. OU has lost three of their last seven going back to last season. QB Landry Jones operates behind an OL that lost two multi-year starters since the start of fall camp. While TT had a soft non-conference schedule, the results confirmed our suspicions that TT was improved on both of the foot- ball, an opinion that gained more curr5ency last week. Seth Doege has another year of seasoning and the backfield has been fortified by the return of RB Eric Stephens, a 2011 pre-season all-league pick who was playing up to that standard when he was shelved in Game 5 by a knee injury. Lubbock is historically a tough place to play. Raiders have won the last three meetings on this turf, most recently 41-13 in 2009. We look for the skein to continue. TEXAS TECH 38-30.
Marshall* over Tulsa by 8
We had Marshall near the top of this page several weeks ago and were rewarded when the Thundering Herd slipped inside the number vs. Ohio. We felt fortunate. In that game, Marshall turned into a one-dimensional team after failing to hold an early lead. But the stagnant Marshall running game came to life the following week when Steward Butler and Kevin Grooms received their first significant minutes and peppered Rice for 269 yards on only 30 carries. One-hit wonders? Not likely as these guys were high school hotshots in Florida who were heavily recruited and then rejected by higher profile schools because they were academic non-qualifiers. (Butler and Grooms enrolled at Marshall in 2011, but counted against this year’s recruiting class.) Marshall HC Doc Holliday knew what he had. In the week lead- ing up to the Rice game, he converted his #1 RB, Travon Van, to a defensive back. When the situation dictates, QB Rakeem Cato turns to his high school buddy Tommy Shuler. They drove Purdue nuts last week, although the Boilermakers were victorious. Cato figures to have another good game throwing into a Tulsa second- ary coming off a wobbly effort in Birmingham last week. MARSHALL 35-27.Comment
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