10-6-12

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Delaney

Saturday's winner...

My 100-Dime Winner for tonight is on the Nevada Wolfpack, who are hostgng the Wyoming Cowboys tonight at Reno's Mackay Stadium, one of the toughest college football venues in the nation to play in. I love the value with this favorite, as I think this is a cheap price to lay with this team. As I relejase this game at 2:30 a.m. eastern, the line I see at sportsbooks in Las Vegas and Offshore is currnntly Nevada -18-1/2 points, up from an original number of -14 I saw Thursday. Don't sweat it though, cause the Wolfpack win big.

Tonight's Breakdown


Due back by 11 a.m. eastern





Sean Michaels

Saturday's Play

25 Dime Play on Clemson as the home favorite against Georgia Tech. As I release this play at 10:50 PM here in Vegas on Friday evening, the Tigers are -10 1/2 in this Death Valley contest.

Note From Sean


I've had 24 total picks in baseball and football since August 1.


$10 bettors won $4,375 with those plays.


On Friday I nailed my Biggest College Football Play of the Season so far on Utah State getting the cover at BYU.


Today I've got my 25 Dime Revenge Rout of the Year as the team I'm backing has had this game circled on their calendar since they last met a season ago.

$10 bettors have won $10,150 in football the past
three years following my advice

As you know, I don't play everyday and I only release plays when I'm playing the games myself.


I like to choose my spots, being very selective, and today's one of those days as I've got my 25 DIME Revenge Rout of the Year on the college card.

[Mr. IWS]

Chuck O'Brien

Saturday's 50 Dime Winner...

My money is on the Duke Blue Devils in their Atlantic Coast Conference clash with the Virginia Cavaliers, as the two meet at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina. I'm releasing this game at 2:40 a.m. Las Vegas time, and from what I can see at sportsbooks in Las Vegas and Offshore, I see the line ranging anywhere from a pick to Duke -1. Officially, as of now, the line I'm going with due to the majority of lines is Duke Pick over Virginia. Be sure to shop for the best line possible.

TODAY'S ANALYSIS

Due back by 8 a.m. pacific

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

Saturday's Action...


50 Dime Play today in college football is a 2 TEAM, 7-POINT TEASER on both West Virginia and Oregon. Again, this regse is a 7-POINT TEASER, so you are laying a little more juice, but in the end it will be worth it. As of 7:00 am eastjern, the lines in Vegas and offshnre are West Virginia +7, and Oregon -24. So using the 7-POINT TEASER, I want you to tease West Virginia up to +14, and Oregon down to -17 and play it that way.


Analysis
50 DIME - 2 TEAM, 7-POINT TEASER - WEST VIRGINIA & OREGON ---It's clear to me Vegas is getting sharper as the season progresses because these lines all seem pretty good... so we'll just hit another teaser as I've been doing all season long.


The two games that stood out to me the most for today were West Virginia and Oregon... but giving up 24 points when 21 is such a common number was a little bit hairy. And then figuring Texas could possibly beat West Virginia by 7 or 10 was also a bit of a risky prop%K1%sition for me.


But seeing that these two games were my favorites on the board, and knowing that I could tease them together and add a touchdown and extra point... well, that's what I felt I had to do.


First West Virginia... you can't argue the fact that they left the Big East and have jumped into the Big 12 with guns blazing!! A 70-63 defensive battle last week was just what the doctor ord%K2%ered as a wake up call for Holgersen's defense. If they play like that against the Longhorns, they will suffer their first loss of the season, period.


They must play better in order to have a chance to compete. Having said that, you can't argue with what they're doing on offense. Wow!! They are firing on all cylinders, including Heisman front-runner QB Geno Smith. And after watching Oklahoma State's young offense slice up that Texas defense last week, I have no doubt the Mounties will move that ball at will.


Obviously they're not going to score the 10 touchdowns we saw a week ago vs. Baylore, but this is a high-scoring offense and they usually torch teams that like to bring pressure. Well, Texas likes to bring pressure.


On defense, clearly they have to play better. Texas QB David Ash has the ability to get hot in a moment's notice... and there's not much WVU is going to be able to do about it. However, they have been working on tackling drills this week and even if Texas is catching passes, the Mounties can do thems%K3%lves a favor by wrapping up... NO LONG PLAYS!!


This game will be a combo of the WVU/Baylor and Texas/OSU game all wrapped in one... buckle up.


As for Oregon... do I really have to explain? Listen, I really like what Steve Sarkisian has been able to do in his first two seasons at Washington... but he's doing it with average players. Even more commendable.


But for Washington to be ranked is a bit of a farce. Their only good win was against Stanford... but then again, all Pac 12 road teams lose on Thursday night games. Stanford didn't stand a chance.


Washington is a nice team. But that's as far as it goes. This is only their second road game of the year... the other was a 41-3 loss at LSU. I think it's safe to say Oregon's offense is better than LSU's and they score more points at home than they do on the road.


After last week's pedestrian performance at Washington State (in a game they still won by 25 points), you can bet Chip Kelly has worked these guys over all week and they will be ready to absolutely dominate in front of the home fans.


Though I do believe Oregon, which averages 50+ points per game, will probably cover the 24 points, it only makes sense to tease this down to 17 and count our money after the game is over.


So your teaser is on West Virginia plus the points and Oregon minus the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Derek Mancini

Tonight's Winner...

80 Dime play on the Texas Longhorns agagnst the WVU Mountaineers. As I release this selecjtion at 8 AM Eastern Saturday, Texas is currnntly listed as a 7-point chalk at the majority of the books. Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point insurance on the Longhorns at anywhere from -7 to -7 1/2.

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

MISSISSIPPI +13½ -105 over Texas A&M
7:00 PM EST. The Aggies are coming off that incredible offensive showing last week against Arkansas. They won 58-10 and rookie QB Johnny Manziel broke the SEC record for total yards in a game, amassing 557 yards (454 passing, 104 rushing) to go along with four total touchdowns. In total, the Aggies amassed an eye-popping 716 yards of total offense. With that showing comes all the publicity, hype and recognition. It also creates an inflated line here.

The Aggies skewed offensive numbers have come against SMU, South Carolina State and Arkansas. Had this game been played prior to last weeks’ blowout, they would’ve likely been a 7½-8½ point choice here.

Ole Miss has already surpassed last year’s win total. Its wins have also come against fire-sale competition but last week’s very decent showing at #1 Alabama had to be a giant boost. Ole Miss is an improving team that plays hard and gains confidence even in defeat. The Rebels may not be ready to beat a more talented team but they're primed to take one to the fourth quarter.
Our PickMISSISSIPPI +13½ -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)

TCU -7 vs. Iowa State
#354 TCU -7 -105 over Iowa State
3:30 PM EST. This line opened at -11 and dropped to -7 as soon as TCU coach Gary Patterson announced quarterback Casey Pachall has been suspended indefinitely after he was arrested for suspicion of driving while intoxicated.

Trevone Boykin takes over at QB and now Iowa State has to get prepared for something they weren't ready to be prepared for. Said coach Patterson, “We actually have more offense with Trevone Boykin in the game than we do with Casey Pachall in the game because he can throw all the throws. He’s a very athletic guy that can do a lot of other things that Casey can't do”.

Let’s also not ignore that the Cyclones offense is stuck in neutral and has a huge game next week at home against Kansas. ISU scored a combined 22 points against Iowa and Texas Tech and now face a defense that has allowed just 29 points all year in four games. The Horned Frogs have been sloppy, yet they’re still 4-0 and we expect them to dig down deep in response to all the problems they’ve endured over the past eight months, capped by this latest one. This is an overreaction to that suspension, giving us a favorable number.
Our Pick#354 TCU -7 -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)

TEMPLE vs. South Florida
#330 TEMPLE +149 over South Florida
12:00 PM EST. South Florida is coming off a tough game at home against #4 Florida State. They hung in there for a while before falling by 13 but more importantly, it was a physically and emotionally draining game. Going up to Philadelphia to face the Owls sure can’t be very appetizing for the Bulls, especially with another home game next week against another ranked opponent in Louisville.

Additionally, we’re not even convinced USF is the superior team here. They’ve lost three in a row, including a home loss to Rutgers. Its only two wins on the year came against Chattanooga and Nevada. Now this struggling and poor traveling club is in an awful spot and favored on the road?

This line is way off. The Owls have had two weeks to prepare for this one after a smarting loss at Penn State. Previously, they made a furious comeback against Maryland but just fell short. Those two losses impact this number but Temple has consistently covered spreads at home over the last few seasons and they appear to be undervalued in this spot yet again. Owls outright.
Our Pick#330 TEMPLE +149 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.98)

Northwestern vs. PENN STATE
#331 Northwestern +112 over PENN STATE
#331 Northwestern +112 over PENN STATE
12:00 PM EST. The Nittany Lions were supposed to struggle miserably this season but they have responded with three wins in a row to improve to 3-2. The Lions are getting solid quarterback play from Matt McGloin, however, PSU’s wins came against three cupcakes in Navy, Illinois and Temple. One could argue that this year’s Illini is the worst Illinois team ever assembled.

Northwestern is 5-0. Motivation is no factor, as games at State College are always televised to a large audience, not to mention the 100,000+ that’ll be in attendance. NU has wins over Syracuse, Boston College and Vandy among its five wins.

With PSU having reeled off three wins in a row, combined with its popularity, they’re wrongly favored over the 24th ranked Wildcats. We're still down on the Nittany Lions current personnel and will continue to fade them. This time, we'll have a much better hammer in a Northwestern outfit that's running (ranked 9th in the nation) and defending the run as well as any team in Pat Fitzgerald's tenure.
Our Pick#331 Northwestern +112 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.24)

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers
SERIES wager
San Francisco +115 over CINCINNATI
SERIES
The Reds have home field advantage but the first two games are in San Fran and that bodes well for the Giants with Matt Cain going, followed by Madison Bumgarner. The Reds’ also clinched early, which allowed them to set up their rotation of 19-game winner Johnny Cueto, followed by Bronson Arroyo and Mat Latos.

Still, the edge on the hill has to go to this talented and experienced starting staff of the Giants. Cain won his final six regular-season decisions and struck out 193 batters in 219 1/3 innings this season. He hasn't lost in 10 starts since Aug. 6 at St. Louis and has plenty of post-season cred to fall back on. Madison Bumgarner went 10-3 at AT&T with a 2.38 ERA. Tim Lincecum and his outstanding playoff profile will start game three in Cincinnati. Despite Lincecum’s struggles this season, that’s still a daunting trio to have to face.

Cueto is a Cy Young candidate that is coming off his best season but he has a history of late season struggles and this year was no different. He lost his first three September starts to Philly, Houston and Miami before beating the Cubbies, Brewers and Pirates. Those were six very winnable games but Cueto won just two while surrendering 14 runs to the former three. Untrustworthy Bronson Arroyo starts game two followed by Mat Latos in game three.

The Reds enter this series still looking for their first playoff win — that’s game not series — since sweeping the Dodgers in the Division Series back in 1995. They could come in tentative and ripe to get beat. The Giants come in peaking at precisely the right time. San Fran had the best record in baseball (18-8) and hit .295 as a team in September. Since August 1, they’ve averaged 5.2 runs per game. That gives them an edge at the plate, not to mention its already established edge on the hill, edge in experience and a definite managerial edge over what some are calling the worst playoff manager ever in Dusty Baker. Give the Reds an edge in the pen but all other signs point in the Giants direction. If Cinci wins this series, so be it but we’re going with the best of it by taking back a tag on the team with fewer weaknesses.
Our PickSan Francisco +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

[Mr. IWS]

VegasTout Football Plays for Saturday


Play Texas A&M -12.5 over Mississippi—NCAA FOOTBALL TOP PLAY

7:00 PM EST

Mississippi has lost 6 of the last 7 games against the spread coming
off a road loss and they have also lost 8 of the last 11 games against
the spread coming off an UNDER the total. Mississippi has lost 11 of
the last 17 games against the spread as an underdog and they have lost
12 of the last 17 games against the spread vs. conference opponents.

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Play Texas Tech +4.5 over Oklahoma---NCAA FOOTBALL BONUS PLAY
Play Virginia Tech +5.5 over North Carolina---NCAA FOOTBALL BONUS PLAY
Play Duke -1.5 over Virginia---NCAA FOOTBALL BONUS PLAY

[Mr. IWS]

VegasTout MLB Baseball for Saturday


Play Detroit -180 over Oakland—Top MLB Play

Detroit has won 101 of the last 143 games as a favorite of -150 or
higher and they have won 83 of the last 142 games coming off a one run
win vs. a division opponent.

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Play San Francisco -120 over Cincinnati---BONUS MLB PLAY

[Mr. IWS]

Fred Huber

Kansas State-25 over Kansas

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner


1500* Miami Fl+14

[Mr. IWS]

Andrew Lange CFB

20* Stanford -9
10* Texas Tech +5
10* Indiana over 47.5

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Akmens POD
ALL-SPORTS POD REPORT FOR TODAY’S ACTION:
#908 @6:05PM ** 10* DETROIT (VERLANDER) -185 vs Oakland

[Mr. IWS]

GREG SHAKER

3* Middle Tenn St
2* NC St
2* Michigan
2* Oklahoma OVER 57
2* Marshall

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast totals

3'* Tulsa over 69
3* Navy under 54 (early game)
3* TCU under 41
3* Akron over 63'

[Mr. IWS]

HI-Roller Sports

5* Florida +3..... despite LSU's #4 national ranking, I think the wrong team is favored here. Florida is sound in all phases of the game, possesses a strong running game with RB Gillislee and QB Driskell is slowly coming into his own. LSU struggles mightily on offense and their defense, while talented, is young in key positions. Will Muschamp has transformed this Gators team in Year 2 of his tenure and I think they will prove they are ready for the national spotlight. Gators win straight-up.

3* North Carolina -5.5..... these aren't your daddy's VTech Hokies. This group is downright ordinary in the areas that they usually excel in -- defense and special teams. And their QB Logan Thomas, while big, athletic and talented, hasn't proven he can consistently get it done from one series to the next. UNC, on the other hand, has NFL talent at key positions on offense (QB Renner and RB Bernard), the best o-line in the ACC, an active, athletic, pressuring defense and outstanding special teams play. The key to this game will be the Tar Heels' execution of Coach Larry Fedora's uptempo, no-huddle attack. If they can execute with the smoothness and precision that they showed last week, they should put VT on their heels and beat them for the first time in Chapel Hill.

2* Vanderbilt +7..... both teams have struggled this year and I don't think Missouri is a whole TD better than the Commodores. I think Vandy's got enough on offense and defense to keep things very interesting well into the 4Q.