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2* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +10½
2* Connecticut @ Rutgers Under 40
2* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +10½
2* Connecticut @ Rutgers Under 40
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JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
TOP PLAYS
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
FLORIDA +2.5 over LSU: The LSU Tigers are built on defense and yes they have a good one, but really how good is it. The Tigers have yet to face an offense that is any good at all and last week they did allow 22 points to FCS foe Towson. Idaho, Towson, Washington, and North Texas all at home would have any defense looking good. They did allow just 10 points at Auburn as well, but really how good is that offense anyway? Now on the other side I feel we have the best defense in the league, behind Alabama and they have been tested. Florida has allowed 37 points total in their last 3 games and that was vs a Powerful A&M and Tennessee offenses and a Kentucky No-huddle attack that has looked good this year and did put up 17 points on a very sound South Carolina defense, but was shutout by the Gators. This Florida defense is for real and has shown it vs better competition than LSU has faced. The Gator defense also gets stronger as the game goes on as they have allowed a mere 14 total points in the 2nd half this year. The Gator offense has also been solid and they have a strong ground game that racks up 224 ypg and that should open up some throwing lanes giving them a great shot at some big plays. LSU Has been solid on offense but also hasn't played the against very good defenses. The Gators have shown that their defense is for real, they are at home and playing with big time revenge after losing the last 2 in a row to LSU including by 30 points last year. The Gators have the edges in this game, they haven't lost 3 in a row in this series since the late 70's and they have that powerful angle below going for them as well. It won't be easy but Florida will start to pull away in the second half where they have outscored teams by a 63-14 count and have yet to allow a 4th quarter point on the year. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 1983 Florida is a very impressive 17-1-3 ATS off a win of 8 or more with conference revenge if facing an opponent that allows 10 ppg or more on the year.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Washington/ Oregon Under 64: Watching Washington last week on Thursday night it showed how defensively sound they are, but this pick isn't all about there defense, because the Ducks will get their points, but this play is more or less on the Washington offense. This is not a good offense as they come in averaging just 313 ypg and 23.3 ppg, but even worse is their average in games vs FBS foes which is just 13.7 ppg. Now they face an Oregon team that allowed 26 points to Washington State last week, so I look for them to really tighten up on the defensive side of the ball. Remember, this is an Oregon defense that shut out an Arizona squad, two weeks ago, that was averaging 46.3 ppg at the time of the game. I really look for the Oregon defense to bounce back after last week's lackluster performance. We know that Oregon will get their points, but I do believe this Washington defense is good enough to keep Oregon in the mid 40's at best. This is the BEST defense that the Ducks will have faced to date. So Im expecting mid 40's by Oregon and low teens by the Huskies. 58 points at most here.
7 POINT POWER TEASER OF THE WEEK--- Georgia +8 & Nebraska +10.5
3 UNIT PLAYS
TCU/ Iowa State Under 41.5: Gotta love the Under in this one, especially with the suspension of TCU QB Casey Pachall. This TCU team will really struggle on offense without their QB. The Horned Frogs do put up 403 ypg on offense, but a lot of that was through the air (255 ypg), while they come in ranked 78th in the nation in Running the ball, averaging 148 ypg on the ground. Trevone Boykin is Casey's likely replacement, but his is a red shirt freshmen and has just 94 yards passing on the year, while rushing for 112 yards. I look for a simple game plan from TCU, with more running than throwing and that should eat plenty of clock. Now with all the offensive problems that TCU has, I look for an even more intense effort from this defense that comes in allowing just 255.8 ypg and a mere 7.3 ppg on the year. That defense should have little problems in slowing down an Iowa State team that ranks 10th in the Big 12 and 90th overall. In their opener the Cyclones did put up 38 points on Tulsa, but vs Iowa and Texas Tech they have been able to muster just 11 ppg. Not a very good offense and it won't get better vs TCU in this one. On defense ISU has surprised as they rank 19th overall (308.8 ypg) and 17th in points allowed (14 ppg) and I see that continuing vs this TCU squad that is without their leader, plus they have had injuries to the running game as well. This really has the feel of a 17-10 type game and that would put us way under this total.
Notre Dame -14 over Miami: The Miami offense has been very good in the early going, but they have yet to face a defense the likes of which they will see tonight. This Notre Dame defense is stifling and will put plenty of pressure on Morris and company. Notre Dame’s defense ranks as one of the better units in the nation and it really showed when they allowed just 10 points to navy in the opener and then allowed no TD’s in their last 2 games, which were vs Michigan State and Michigan. The Notre Dame offense has not been that explosive this year, but Kelly has had a week to come up with a game plan that will exploit this porous Miami defense that is 118th in total defense (495.6 ypg) and 100th in points allowed (33.4 ppg). The Irish have had the extra week to get ready for this one, while Miami was involved in a shootout last week vs ACC foe NC State. This game will be played in Chicago, but it still has the feel of an Irish home game, plus the game time temperature should be in the 30’s and that just give the Irish another advantage over this team that has been practicing in 80 degree weather for much of the week. The weather, the defensive edge the Irish have, the week off and the home field edge that Notre Dame should have in this one will be just too much for Miami to overcome. Notre Dame by 17+ here.
UNLV +27.5 over LOUISIANA TECH: This is a big flat spot for the Bulldogs here. Louisiana Tech is off BB road wins over BCS schools and they have Texas A&M on deck in what could be a game (if they win it) that may get them into the BCS buster talk. The La Tech offense has been unstoppable this year, but because they usually score so quickly their defense is usually on the field too much and that has allowed them to give up plenty of big plays. UNLV is not a great offense, but they did put up 27 on Washington State and 38 on air Force so they can score on a weak defense and the Bulldogs have that. LA Tech is one of just 5 teams in the nation that have allowed 500 or more yards per game. Their pass defense is 123rd in the nation (367 ypg) and they have allowed 37 ppg, which is 109th in the nation. Last week the Bulldogs allowed a weak Virginia squad to put up 38 points on them and the Rebels offense is just slightly worse than that of the Cavs. I just don't expect the Bulldogs to come out firing on all cylinders and that plus there defense should allow the Rebels to stay within the number.
Illinois/ Wisconsin Under 45: The Illinois offense isn't clicking right now and has averaged just 15 ppg in their last 3 games vs FBS foes. It won’t be easier for them in this one as they have averaged just 16 ppg in their last 3 trips here. The Wisconsin defense has been tough on their own field, allowing just 316 ypg and 20.3 ppg and they will make it very hard for this Illinois offense to get going. The Illinois defense has not been all that good this year, but the Wisconsin offense is not all that explosive and has struggled this year, averaging just 309 ypg and 22 ppg. The Illinois run defense has been exposed last week vs PSU and I expect Wisconsin to finally establish the run in this one and that will chew up plenty of clock. I really expect this game to land somewhere in the mid 30’s at most.
7 POINT TEASER --- Florida State -9.5 & Texas PK
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
CLEMSON -10.5 over Georgia Tech
Michigan State -14 over INDIANA
7 POINT TEASER --- Washington State +22.5 & South Florida/ Temple Under 54
1 UNIT PLAYS
UL- LAFAYETTE -27 over Tulane
KANSAS STATE -25 over Kansas (Added)
3 EXTRA POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (8-2 +5.8 UNITS)
Since 1992 Georgia Tech is just 3-16 ATS when playing a game off 2 consecutive Overs. Play on Clemson -10.5 over Georgia Tech
Play AGAINST any road dogs off a conference win as dogs of +6 or more and are playing an opponent that is off a win of 10+ vs a conference rival. This play is 29-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Play on Oregon -25 over Washington.
PLAY AGAINST any college football favorite off three consecutive SU underdog wins if they are facing a foe that failed to score 50 points and did not lose by 30 or more points in that game game. Teams in this spot are 2-20 ATS.
Play on Washington State +15.5Comment
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JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
TOP PLAY
3 UNIT PLAY
San Francisco/ Cincinnati Under 6.5: This should be a great pitching matchup that will take place in a pitcher's pack. Johnny Cueto gets the ball for the Reds in game 1 and he has been very solid this year, posting a 2.78 ERA overall and a 2.77 ERA on the road. Johnny has a 1.35 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 2 ER's or less in 5 of his last 6 on the road, plus in 3 starts vs the Giants between last year and this year he has allowed just 2 ER's in 22 innings of work. Johnny has faced the Giants twice in this park and has allowed just 2 ER's in 13 innings, with a total of 8 runs being scored combined in the 2 games. Matt Cain comes in with a 2.03 ERA and an 0.90 WHIP at home this year and he has allowed 2 ER's or less in 9 of his last 10 starts. Matt has struggled some with the Reds, but this Cincy offense comes in averaging just 2.1 rpg in their last 10 games. The Giant offense also has struggled, scoring just 3.4 rpg in their last 5. The Temperature could be in the high 50's at game time and that will help keep scoring down as well. This has all the makings of a classic Pitcher's duel.Comment
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BOB BALFE
College Football Free Pick
Central Michigan +11.5 over Toledo
Again I think this is a game in which the wrong team is favored. Last week I advised you to take the CMU money line and they did not cash against N. Illinois, but I am not giving up on this veteran team. Toledo has won the past few years with ease and I think this is the year CMU gets a victory. Toledo has a young offensive line and their center might not play today. Central Michigan’s Offensive Line has been one of the best in the nation since last year as they do not allow many sacks. The key for me is Toledo’s Defensive line which is banged up and on the young side. The Line play should be dominated by Central Michigan. I like the money line here at +340 especially with all those defensive line injuries for the Rockets. CMU has good experienced targets at WR and an experienced QB. If they cant get it done today then we will write this team off as a failure. Take Central Michigan.Comment
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Docs
Play. #56/#394 Take Ohio State Buckeyes -3 over Nebraska Cornhuskers
(Saturday, 10/6, 8 pm ABC) Top College Play of the Weekend
Play. #60/#332 Take Over 47 in Northwestern Wildcats @ Penn State Nittany Lions
(Saturday, 10/6, 12 pm ESPN)
Play. #63/#371 Take Oklahoma Sooners -5.5 over Texas Tech Red Raiders
(Saturday, 10/6, 3:30 pm ESPN 2)
Play. #85/#349 Take Georgia Bulldogs +1 over South Carolina Gamecocks
(Saturday, 10/6, 7 pm ESPN)
Play. #94/#390 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish -14 over Miami Hurricanes
(Saturday, 10/6, 7:30 pm NBC)
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