10-7-12

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We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

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SPORTS WAGERS

Survivor Pick - Week 5
NEW ORLEANS over San Diego
There have been plenty of teams that start a year at 0-4 and most of them were deserving of such a start. The Saints don’t belong in that category. This is a quality team that employs one of the top QB’s in the NFL, as his numbers will confirm. Drew Brees leads the league in passing with 1,350 yards.
The Chargers have defeated Oakland, Tennessee and K.C while getting whacked by Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Note that the team that destroyed them had a quality QB. Against Oakland, they blocked four punts. Against K.C. they were aided by six Chief turnovers. The Chargers 3-1 record against bad clubs is all smoke and mirrors. This is a stagnant offensive team and by year’s end the numbers will reflect just that.
Last week, we were fortunate to squeeze by with the Packers one-point win over these Saints for our Survivor pick. Those that played Atlanta or Arizona and even Baltimore, to a lesser extent, could easily be on the rail. This week, most of your poolies will be on the G-Men, Niners or Texans. With every big favorite winning last week, a time bomb could be ticking and if it goes off, one or two of this week’s ‘Big 3” will lose outright. We’re certainly not going to guess which it will be. Instead, in sticking with our theory of not going down with or advancing with the rest of the pack, we’re as comfortable endorsing the Saints as we are any of the aforementioned teams. The Saints are embarrassed by their start. While it won’t be easy, they still want to defy the odds and shoot for the playoffs. If that is to happen, it has to start here. Against an overvalued visitor, we’re confident that it will.
Week 5 pick – New Orleans straight up.
N.Y. Jets √
Cincinnati √
Chicago √
Green Bay √

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4 UNIT = Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings - VIKINGS -5.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 4.40 units to win 4.00 units)

The Tennessee Titans enter Sunday's game with a 1-3 record, and are coming off of a 38-14 loss to Houston where they lost their starting QB. Their lone win on the season was a 44-41 victory against Detroit, while other loses came against San Diego and New England by a combined score of 72-23. Matt Hasselbeck will get the start at QB in place of injured Jake Locker. The Vikings have surprised many as they've opened the season 3-1 with two straight upsets in Detroit (20-13) and vs San Francisco (24-13). In Week 1 they hosted the Jaguars and beat them 26-23 in overtime, which was followed by their lone loss in Indianapolis 23-20. The Titans defense ranks 31st in the NFL giving up 419 yards per game, and they are last in the league allowing 37.8 points against per game. Minnesota is 8th defensively giving up 313 yards per game, and 7th allowing just 18 points against per game. Offensively these two teams aren't too far apart, with the Vikings sitting 21st in the leauge while the Titans are 23rd. Minnesota is scoring 22.5 points per game, while the Titans are scoring 20.2 ppg. Despite having one of the best running backs in the game, the Titans are 28th in the league with just 68 rushing yards per game. The Vikings defense is 7th against the run, and if they can limit Chris Johnson they are going to make it tough on Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck managed to complete 61.6% of his passes last season for 3,571 yards, but he threw 14 INTs (18 TDs) for a 82.4 QB Rating. After entering the game last week he was effective at times throwing 2 TD passes and completing 68% of his passes, but he did throw 2 INTs. I give the QB edge to the Vikings as Christian Ponder has looked solid this year, completing 68.3% of his passes while throwing 4 TDs and 0 INTs for a 97.7 QB Rating. Considering the Titans are 26th in the league giving up 8 yards per pass attempt I think we will see Ponder have another productive day Sunday. The Vikings are a much improved team from last year, where they won just once at home. If you take a look at their home games last year you will notice they had a pretty tough schedule hosting Tampa Bay, Detroit, Arizona, Green Bay, Oakland, Denver, New Orleans, and Chicago - almost all teams that were either a playoff team or close to it. Tennessee managed to go 4-4 on the road last season, but wins came against Cleveland, Carolina, Buffalo and Houston in a meaningless Week 17 game. Nothing too impressive there. Their only real impressive victory last year was in Week 2 against the Ravens at home where they won 26-13 as 5.5 point underdogs. The Titans have shown nothing defensively so far this year, and their only game of over 14 points came against the Lions at home where a lot of their points came from special teams or big plays on poor tackling by the Lions. I don't see Tennessee being able to do much to stop the Vikings balanced offense. Take Minnesota to cover the spread and win by a TD or more.

2 UNIT = Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots - BRONCOS +7 (-115)
(Note: I'm risking 2.30 units to win 2.00 units)

Denver has been a bit of a roller coaster this season, as they opened with a big 31-19 victory over Pittsburgh in the Sunday Night game before dropping the Week 2 MNF game 27-21in Atlanta (in a game that they were down 27-7 at the end of the 3rd). The Broncos then hosted Houston and lost 31-25, before running over Oakland 37-6 last week. The big question surrounding the Broncos was if Peyton Manning was going to come back where he left off, and so far he has been pretty solid. Manning is completing 64.7% of his passes with 8 TDs and 3 INTs for a QB Rating of 96.9 - a number I think will only get better as the season goes on and Manning gets a better feel for his receivers (and vice versa). Many had thought that the Patriots could go undefeated this season with a relatively easy schedule, but the Patriots enter Sunday's game 2-2. New England has beaten Tennessee 34-13 and Buffalo last week 52-28, while they've lost 20-18 to Arizona as 13.5 point favorites and 31-30 to Baltimore in Week 3. Tom Brady has been impressive as always completing 65.6% of his passes with 7 TDs and just 1 INT for a QB Rating 102.4. In total offense the Patriots rank 1st in the NFL averaging 438 yards per game, while the Broncos are 12th with 387 yards per game. New England is also 1st in PPG at 33.5, while Denver is 7th with 28.5 PPG. Defensively the Broncos rank 7th allowing 308 yards against per game, while New England is 20th at 366 yards against per game. Denver is allowing 20.8 points against per game, while Patriots are a little higher at 23. What impresses me is that the Broncos have faced three very good offenses in Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Houston (the other being Oakland), while the Patriots have only had 1 or 2 tests in Baltimore and Buffalo (with the others being Tennessee and Arizona). I do give the offensive edge to Brady and the Patriots, but the defensive edge has to go to Denver. Take note that Manning is 14-4 against the spread as an underdog since 2003. 7 points is just too much in this one, as even if the Broncos do find themselves down late in the game we know that Manning can easily lead them down the field for a late score or two. I expect this to be a classic tight game between Brady and Manning as both show why they are considered elite QBs. Take Denver to keep it close.

2 UNIT = Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals - BENGALS -3.5 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units)

Despite a 1-3 record to open up the season, the Miami Dolphins have been somewhat impressive to start the season. The opened the season with a 30-10 loss in Houston, but followed that up with a big 35-13 home victory against Oakland. In Week 3 the Dolphins lost Reggie Bush mid way through the game and allowed the Jets to comeback and beat them 23-20 in a game I think they should have won. The Dolphins then went into Arizona to take on the then undefeated Cardinals and were leading late before losing 24-21 in overtime. With that said, I do think the Dolphins are going to struggle in Cincinnati this weekend. The Bengals have won 3 straight games to improve to 3-1 on the year. They opened the season with a brutal 44-13 loss in the early MNF game, but then went on to beat Cleveland by 7, Washington by 7 as 3 point underdogs, and Jacksonville last week by 17 as 1 point favorites. Much of the Bengals success has come through the air, as Andy Dalton has completed 67.5% of his passes with 8 TDs and 4 INTs for a 103 QB Rating (5th in the league). Dolphins rookie QB ranks 31st in the league as he has completed 55.9% of his passes with just 2 TDs and 6 INTs for a 66.4 QB Rating. I will give him credit for having a good game last week throwing for 431 yards in Arizona, but I don't think we will see that type of performance on Sunday. These two offenses are ranked closely with the Dolphins 9th in the league at 397 yards per game and the Bengals 10th with 389 yards per game, but Cincinnati has managed to put up 28 PPG while the Dolphins only 21.5 PPG. The Dolphins offense has come more from rushing the football, while the Bengals are the opposite with most of their offense coming through the air. The Bengals rank 23rd in the league giving up 130 yards aginst per game on the ground, but the Dolphins rank 30th against the pass allowing 297 yards per game through the air. Take note that the Dolphins have giving up 23+ points in 3 of their 4 games, while the Bengals have scored 27+ points in 3 of their 4 games (including 34 points in their lone home game this year). The Bengals were 4-4 last year at home, but losses came against tough teams in Baltimore, Houston, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco (all of which were playoff teams as well). After 2 road games this year the Dolphins have managed to win just 2 road games in the last two season, which came against Buffalo and Kansas City. Although they've done well against the spread on the road, you have to take into consideration that they've been on average roughly 7 point favorites on the road. The Bengals seem to take care of teams they are supposed to beat, and they are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a losing record. I can't see the Dolphins offense keeping up with the Bengals, and I like Cincy to cover the spread on Sunday.

2 UNIT = Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers - PANTHERS -3 (-104)
(Note: I'm risking 2.08 units to win 2.00 units)

The Seahawks enter Week 5 with a 2-2 record, which included a controversial victory against the Packers last Monday. Seattle has won both home games vs Dallas and Green Bay (27-7 and 14-12) while they've lost both of their road games (20-16 in Arizona and 19-13 in St Louis). They are 2-0 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS on the road. The Panthers have gotten off to a rough start to the year, as many people have predicted them to be battling for a playoff spot come December. The Panthers have lost games vs Tampa Bay, an ugly one against the Giants, and last weeks last second 30-28 loss in Atlanta. Their win was a 35-27 victory over New Orleans in Week 2. Overall the Panthers have looked good in 2 of their games (their win and last week in Atlanta), and looked very bad in their other two losses. It will be interesting to see what Panthers team shows up here in Week 5, but I think we can expect a desperate Carolina team to play an all around solid game at home. Despite two bad offensive games, the Panthers still rank 13th in the NFL averaging 373 yards per game on offense while scoring 20 points per game. The Seahawks are 29th in the league averaging 281 yards per game, and just 17.5 points per game (28th). The stats are flipped quite a bit on defense though as the Seahawks rank 2nd allowing 275.8 yards against per game, and 2 allowing 14.5 points against per game. The Panthers are 24th allowing 393 yards against per game and 22nd allowing 27.2 points against per game. Panthers QB Cam Newton is completing 63.6% of his passes with 4 TDs and 5 INTs for a 87.5 QB Rating, while rookie Seahawks QB Russel Wilson is completing 60% of his passes with 4 TDs and 4 INTs for a 73.5 QB Rating. The Seahawks have one of the biggest home field advantages in the NFL, and it shows as their ATS numbers are crazy at home. That also sets them up for being bad on the road against the spread, as they are 17-37-2 ATS in their last 56 road games. Last season they played back to back road games twice (although one had a bye in between) and they went 0-2 in those games both straight up and against the spread, while scoring just 3 points combined. With the Panthers coming off an emotional loss you might think they'd have a let down game, but I think the 2 point loss against the NFC's only defeated team was a confidence booster for this Panthers team. This is a must win for Carolina as they can't fall to 1-4, and with Seattle putting up 16 or fewer points in 3 of their 4 games I like Carolina to win and cover.

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DCI NFL

Week
Straight Up: 0-1 (.000)
ATS: 0-1 (.000)
ATS Vary Units: 0-9 (.000)
Over/Under: 1-0 (1.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 2-0 (1.000)

Season
Straight Up: 35-26 (.574)
ATS: 27-35 (.435)
ATS Vary Units: 120-228 (.345)
Over/Under: 34-28 (.548)
Over/Under Vary Units: 152-127 (.545)

Sunday, October 7, 2012

CINCINNATI 25, Miami 19
Green Bay 31, INDIANAPOLIS 18
Baltimore 25, KANSAS CITY 15
MINNESOTA 28, Tennessee 21
Atlanta 33, WASHINGTON 21
N.Y. GIANTS 29, Cleveland 9
Philadelphia 21, PITTSBURGH 16
Seattle vs. CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Chicago 24, JACKSONVILLE 13
NEW ENGLAND 36, Denver 21
SAN FRANCISCO 34, Buffalo 16
San Diego 34, NEW ORLEANS 30

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Gold Sheet LTS

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7

NFL FB

SOLID GOLD ALERT....2 UNIT PLAY:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3½) -home over Philadelphia 10:00 AM PDT (Game #414)

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POINTWISE PHONES:

3* Pitt, NO. Miami

2* Tenn, Wash, KC

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Marc Lawrence:

4* Titans+5.5
3* Miami+3.5
3* KC+6
3* NYJ +9

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spartan | NFL Side Sun, 10/07/12 - 1:00 PM ÀÖ
triple-dime bet 423 BAL -5.0 (-110) Hilton vs 424 KAN
Analysis: You know guys, last week I had some friends give me static about making the Patriots over the Bills my NFL game of the month. Too square they bellowed, well you should have seen some of the text messages I got after the Bills jumped out in front early. Let me just say this. I've been not only been around the block when it comes to betting the NFL, I've been around the damn world a few dozen times. We've all seen wannabe handicappers twist themselves into knots trying to decipher what is square and sharp. Same thing last sunday when I had my clients on the 49ers in the double over the Jets. Practically identical. Now here we go again this sunday and the odds makers are trying to work some mind games on the bettors. Once again we have what appears at face value to be a trap. Well maybe the Ravens will turn the ball over a half dozen times and Ray Rice and Joe Flacco will both get injured in the opening drive. Barring that kind of sequence of events I don't see the Chiefs even sniffing at a cover here. You will hear people drone on about how tough it is to play the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Well guys, I reside in mid missouri and have attended countless games at Arrowhead. Let's just say it ain't what it used to be in that joint. The stubborn fact is this, the Chiefs are a lousy 15-27 against the number in their be†loved Arrowhead since 2007. There was some concern that maybe the Ravens would be caught in a look ahead situation with Dallas on deck but let's be honest, who fears the Cowpokes these days. Sometimes you have to speak plainly, the Chiefs are miserably weak at QB. Matt Cassel has been handed the keys to this offense and has basically driven it into a ditch. It's difficult enough to win in this league with a competent, efficient professional guy under center. Trying it without one is next to impossible. And now the Ravens are coming into town. Maybe Baltimore is not the wrecking crew on the defensive end they were but they are still fully capable of wreaking utter havoc on Cassel and the Chiefs offense. It would not shock me in the least to see Kansas City bring in Brady Quinn at some point in this game to try and stop the carnage. Well, you guys clearly see where this is going. Triple Star Release on Baltimore. Please keep in mind there are no locks guys. I love the play but we've all seen weird shit happen. Missed field goals, unexpected key injuries, etc. PLEASE use self discipline and maintain solid money management practices. Best of luck to us and enjoy the game!

Pick Made: Oct 2 2012 2:45PM PST
ENJOY!!

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ACCUSCORE NFL

Written by Jon Lee

NFL Week 5: Top 4 Picks


Last weekend, our analyst went 2-1, bringing his record through the early part of this season to a respectable 4-3-2. After 4 weeks, he’s posted a profit on his picks, and now, he’s ready to get aggressive. With the refs back and all teams done with a fourth of the season, he’s ready to make 4 picks this week. As always, the first pick is free, but the next three are for members only…not a member? Sign up now using the coupon code nflrefs (case sensitive) and you’ll get access to membership for 25% off. However, this offer expires after this weekend,

Free Pick for Week 5


Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Simulations have the Steelers winning outright nearly 68 percent of the time. The Eagles are 3-1, but have somehow won those three games by a combined four points. They rank 27th in the league in turnover margin (-5), and it is fool’s gold to believe you can continually win in the NFL giving the football away and relying on last second miracles. Philadelphia’s defense is solid, and the defensive line should give Pittsburgh problems. Ben Roethlisberger has been a wizard his entire career however somehow avoiding pressure and surviving with a weak offensive line. This is the week I expect Philadelphia’s luck to run out.

Members, SIGN IN NOW

Minnesota Vikings -5.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Vikings are one of the surprise teams in the NFC, and if they cover this week it will be time to consider them as just a good team. The computer has Minnesota winning by 8 points, and covering this spread 59 percent of the time. Jake Locker is out for the Titans meaning Matt Hasselbeck will step in yet again at quarterback. I am not a fan of Locker, but he was capable of making certain plays athletically that Hasselbeck is not capable of at this point in his career. The AccuScore computer is 3-1 picking both of these teams ATS so I will side with it in this game as well.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars Under 41 Points
This is a relatively low line for the NFL, but the computer still projects the Under at 63 percent. These two teams average only 36 points combined in simulations.

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints Over 54 Points
The Saints are desperate for a win, and with their horrendous defense, they will go for it behind their offense. That means the Chargers will also be throwing to score points and keep up which should translate to an entertaining offensive game. The Over occurs in nearly 57 percent of simulations. The computer has gone 3-1 for both teams picking Totals this season.

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Wunderdog

Miami at Cincinnati
Pick: Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins started the season with a blowout loss at the hands of Houston. They then returned the favor vs. Oakland with a blowout win 35-13. Given how good Houston is, so far so good. But then Miami lost two more games to drop to 1-3. But is it that bad? Both of those losses came in OT so the Dolphins could very well be 3-1 right now. Despite the losses, the Dolphins’ offense has generated lots of yardage. They have, in fact won the battle at the line of scrimmage by +174 yards in the last three weeks. That is bad news for Cincinnati who has allowed 28 points per game despite holding the Jacksonville offense to just 10 points last week. The Bengals generate most of their yards in the passing game, as their running game has been stalled. Miami may be giving up yards, but their QB rating against is just 75.9, and they are holding teams to a 29% conversion rate on third down. The Bengals can't stop the run or pass, allowing 5.45 yards per carry on the ground. Both of these teams can move the ball, but the Dolphins have more resistance to slow down the Bengals. Miami has come up big in their last eight vs. a winning team at a flawless 8-0 ATS, while the Bengals have managed just one cover in their last 10 vs. the AFC. Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are a horrible play as home chalk going just 13-25 ATS as a home favorite. My computer matchup for this game pegs the game a dead heat. Take the Fins here. Buy to +3.5 if you can. Otherwise, grab them at +3.

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Rochestertitans Sports


NFL

Rams +1 (3.3 to win 3)
Titans +6 -117 (5.5 to win 5)
Jags +5.5 (3.3 to win 3)
Chiefs +5 (3.3 to win 3)
Jets +9 (4.4 to win 4)

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BLEZOW "LOCK OF THE WEEK" ( 1-3 ) :

Lock- PITTSBURGH

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Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 5-13 –27.90%

412 3% WASHINGTON +3
413 3% PHILADELPHIA +3
417 3% CLEVELAND +8.5
429 3% DENVER +6.5
433 3% SAN DIEGO +3.5
411 3% ATLANTA/WASHINGTON OVER 51
423 3% BALTIMORE/KANSAS CITY OVER 46.5

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Sports Wagers NFL

NEW ORLEANS -3½ -109 over San Diego
When was last time a 0-4 team was favored over a 3-1 squad and by more than a field goal? Oddsmakers are not fools. They are not in the habit of giving away cash. Despite New Orleans’ dismal start, the team does have talent. For those that think Drew Brees has regressed, think again. Brees leads the league with 1,350 passing yards to date. The Saints’ defense has been the trouble spot but we’re not convinced that San Diego’s offence is a unit to be overly concerned with.

The Chargers have defeated the Raiders (aided by a slew of blocked kicks), the Titans and the Chiefs (KC with 6 turnovers), teams with a 3-9 record collectively. San Diego lacks a running game while Philip Rivers can’t find a rhythm with his overrated receiving corp. Much like the Cardinals are not a 5-0 team, proving it on Thursday night, the Saints are not an 0-5 team and a reversal of fortune is forthcoming in this Sunday prime timer for all to see.
Our PickNEW ORLEANS -3½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)

KANSAS CITY +6 -108 over Baltimore
Things find a way of balancing out in this league. The Ravens have been solid. A contributing factor is their ability to protect the football. It’s no wonder that Baltimore is winning with just four giveaways thus far compared to eight takeaways from its opponents for a +4 turnover ratio.

The Chiefs have been awful in comparison. Kansas City players have fumbled eight times and have been intercepted seven times while intercepting its adversaries just twice and having zero fumble recoveries. That’s a -13 ratio, dead last in the league. This KC team is averaging 419 yards of offence per game, 4th best in league while allowing an acceptable 334 per game. With a strong running game, a decent passing game and facing an aging defense while at Arrowhead, we see the pendulum swinging back here. Upset possibility.
Our PickKANSAS CITY +6 -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)

Minnesota +5½ -104 over TENNESSEE
Sorry Purple People fans, this is about making money, not friends. The Vikes have been a pleasant surprise with their quick start while the Titans have been rather yucky. Now though, the Vikes are expected to win and win by a margin. That’s a tall order for a team that had six less wins than this opponent just a year ago. Minnesota QB Christian Ponder has performed admirably, with a 68% completion rate and zero interceptions. However, ranking 26th in the league with just 199-yards per game is not exactly an aerial attack to fear, especially when Indianapolis and Detroit have been on the opponent’s docket. Tennessee will have Matt Hasselbeck at the controls this week and he may be a welcomed site. Expect a close one.
Our PickMinnesota +5½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

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Fargo's 10* NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR (PERFECT 4-0)

Steelers -3